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Puma Biotechnology, Inc. Message Board

rniesen77 263 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2014 10:59 AM Member since: Mar 15, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Preditcions for April 24

    by garrythesquid Apr 8, 2014 3:56 PM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Apr 11, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I authored the January 23 article on Seeking Alpha (Market Cuts Both Ways) since I have been a long time investor in SGLB and no one had posted a reasonable summary on what I believe is a uniquely interesting investment play in 3D Printing's disruption of the manufacturing, logistics, and R&D functions of modern business. My estimate of three months (yes that would be April 24) for SGLB to exceed it previous high was based on my expectation that this year is a break out year for them for the reasons specified in the article -- Sigma Labs: Seizing Alpha In 3-D Printing. The day the article was submitted SGLB had just rose from 0.12 to 0.17 (in two days) and seemed like it was moving fast. I believed, optimistically, that it was the start of a strong rally and consequently suggested that in at least the next 3 months, given that earnings would by then be announced, it would exceed its peak.

    Since late January, the NASDAQ and 3D Printing stocks have been in decline which has had its effect on SGLB. I continue to hold my shares, however, knowing that this decline is driven by the market's trend and is not based on any changing fortunes of the company. SGLB's fortunes have never looked brighter. How many times have your read articles slamming the 3D Printing market's high valuations because investors are betting on consumer driven printer sales and then go on to say that the only profitable, disruptive market space is metal printing (i.e., aviation, aerospace, power generation, etc.)? When critics point to the bright space in 3D Printing investment they invariably point to Sigma's customers. When Sigma's news hits I remain confident their story will be trumpeted by the financial media because it is much different than DDD, SSYS, or any of the other OEMs, which will dramatically appreciate it share price. My guess is my timing may be off by as much a three months (pardon my exuberance) but the underlying investment thesis is correct.

    Thank you for reading the article!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Since SGLB peaked on 3/24 at ~0.18 the NASDAQ had declined 5.4%, a down draft effecting almost all tech stocks. With no news, earnings reports or otherwise, OTC stocks like SGLB are particularly susceptible to following investor sentiment which currently is decidedly pessimistic. Its fortunes have not changed at all and most likely they are nearing a break out point shortly given how PrintRite3D seems to be progressing.

    Then why hold SGLB? Because none of us can predict with Mark Cola and the board will announce their first significant earnings or a watershed event in commercialization of PrintRite3D. If you treat this stock like GE or IBM, being anxious about swings, you will undoubtedly lose money getting in and out (unless you are a lot better than I am at trading swings). My strategy is to buy on the best dips I can find knowing that when the time comes whether I bought at $0.20 or $0.12 won't matter all that much. This doesn't mean I won't try to buy low, but I also am not too concerned when the price drops. Currently SGLB is holding up remarkably well relative to the drop other tech stocks are taking (notice its support level above 0.14 currently and previous support above 0.12). This is evidence of quite strong investor sentiment for SGLB. Best of luck to all serious investors!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's isshit

    by pierre_narusse Apr 1, 2014 10:15 AM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Apr 1, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    It is typical of SGLB to go down when the rest of the 3D Print stocks go up and visa verse. Seemly money is shifted from one to the other. Stay the course, however, this bump seems to be the start of a genuine run up ... check out the weekly chart .... even though its price will almost always be volatile. Just look at the fluctuation in the last week. Add on the dips if you can.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rniesen77@gmail.com by rniesen77 Mar 31, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Timing is everything with stocks like SGLB. We have seen many ups and downs here , and also new price plateaus regularly reached. Since GE is their preeminent partner, and the biggest player in the industrial production end of additive manufacturing, their schedule is in many ways the schedule for mass application of SGLB's PrintRite3D. This announcement, gleaned from Kabuki's Facebook page), puts their ramp up for LEAP engines squarely in 2015. Since they cannot ramp before their facilities are prepared SGLB will no doubt be ramping this fall. Here are quotes from the article.

    WEST LAFAYETTE, IND. – March 26, 2014 – GE Aviation, a global leader in jet engines and aircraft systems, announced today at ceremonies here that it will break ground this year on a new $100 million jet engine assembly facility in neighboring Lafayette, Indiana. ...The new 225,000-square-foot facility in Lafayette will assemble the new LEAP engine of CFM International, a 50/50 joint company of GE and Snecma (Safran) of France. CFM has logged total orders and commitments with airlines for more than 6,000 LEAP jet engines ...

    “We are thrilled by the airline industry’s enthusiasm for the new LEAP engine and its groundbreaking technologies,” said David Joyce, president and CEO of GE Aviation, headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio. “Beginning in 2015, the LEAP engine will experience a dramatic production ramp-up for the remainder of the decade. ..."

    search for complete article: GE Aviation selects Indiana for $100 million jet engine assembly factory

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The trend is your friend as they say, but when it is against you patience is necessary. ONVO is the same company it has always been with the same dramatic upside. Announcement this year, perhaps soon, will drive it up immediately. Stay the course. While volatile, the upside is still quite dramatic.

  • Reply to

    What does this patent mean? Commercialization!

    by rniesen77 Mar 25, 2014 11:41 AM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 26, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    Shame on you ... again no added value!

  • Reply to

    Question

    by dose89 Mar 25, 2014 12:26 PM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 25, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    Yes it definitely applies to EBM as well as laser welding technologies because they are all based on creating a microscopic pool of melted metal to form the new layer of material. PrintRite3D monitors these pools to gather data, along with equipment data and environmental data, for its proprietary algorithms to process into feedback commands to control the printer. This is why it is a "closed loop" and benefits manufacturers so much. It corrects variables before they result in product flaws. It is really advanced. Sigma B6 consultants work with users of their equipment in order to interpret the data, fine tune the equipment controls, etc. Why is this important? Every sales is accompanied by services revenue .... high margin revenue!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Why has SGLB waited till now to patent PrintRite3D. I have not spoken to Mark but from researching their patents in the past, which seemed to cover PrintRite's main features, they are now filing to incorporate specific advances developed during their partnering efforts with GE, Boeing, Honeywell, etc. Remember that they added Miller as a director late last year because he is savvy about the business side. They also have added commercialization partners who know what it takes to protect a product. This is really good news because it is a logical step before blowing PrintRite3D out as a product to the broader market. That means licensing to printer OEMs in addition to selling it outright to industrial users.

    We have all been waiting for the uptake from PrintRite3D being launched. This is a very positive sign that in the coming months many more players, including the likes of new entrants like .... wait for it .... HP, will have to come to SGLB's door if they want to product serious quality products (which HP says will be their focus initially) for aerospace, aviation, power generation, etc.

    Staying long for the long run!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD did good today!

    by drdan68 Mar 24, 2014 4:01 PM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 24, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Excellent day; making gains against a down market! Go DDD!

  • Reply to

    DDD Scam Report Released

    by judye_heatherton760 Mar 24, 2014 2:03 PM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 24, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Why are you spreading their lies? This is totally bogus and so are you for being their patsy! If you don't have anything credible to report stay off the board!

  • rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 6, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    Aren't you glad you waited to sell!!!!!!!!!

  • Check it out!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Check it out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    scientists

    by twatkielski Mar 5, 2014 4:18 PM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 5, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    Thanks for the account. How do you happen to know how they work?

  • rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 5, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    Arcam does not have to go courting buyers. If someone decides their strategy is to buy a metals 3D printer manufacturer Arcam will be at the top of the list. I am not familiar with how Swedes practice business, but my guess is that if a suitable buyer wants is willing to pay the premium that Arcam can command, their shareholders will behave as they do in the US; take the money and run.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Many Arcam watchers have wondered what portion of GE Aviation's purchases over the next few years Arcam will capture. Their just released 2013 annual report (Swedish only for now) has the following text (translated the PDF report using Google translate) in their section on aviation, one of only two market they are focusing on (dental being the other):

    "Of a total of 27 orders in 2013 was 10 (16) from the aerospace industry. The biggest customer so far is the Italian subcontractor Avio for aircraft engine components, which together have ordered 10 systems.
    Avio sees business opportunities with Arcam technology and has creating business area eManufacturing to clarify the offer. " (sorry for the rough translation)

    Avio Aviation in Italy is GE's center for additive manufacturing for its LEAP engines. Their order of 10 printers is a strong sign that GE will incorporate Arcam's printers into their long-term manufacturing plans. GE expects to need 40-60 printers. Greg Morris, Leader of Additive Mfg. for GE, said in a speech on Nov. 11, 2013, at the TCT Show + Personalize 2013 said that they were favoring laser sintering because it was hard to get powder out of the intricate design of the LEAP engine nozzles. Consequently, it cannot be concluded yet that they have overcome this issue, but this number of orders is a tremendous investment that GE will undoubtedly plan to make a return on.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Mar 5, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Don't lighten up right now as the stock has likely depressed the vast majority that it will.

  • For technical analysts it is worth applying a Fibonacci retracement series to the weekly stock chart. If you use the high in the week of 1/27/2014 and the low in the week of 07/01/2013 (where growth accelerated) you will find a nice fit with the data. The current price is just about to find support at the 38.2% retracement line at ~$33.33. In 2013 the price bounced off this support level four times -- weeks of 10/21, 12/2, 12/16, and 12/23.

    How significant is this? The weight you give to this idea depends upon your thesis for why Arcam is declining and upon the faith you have that investors will behave as they typically do. IMO the decline was a correction investors took because they were unimpressed with Arcam's latest financial performance. There were high expectations Arcam would have exceeded estimates significantly by enhancing their production capacity. That is still a hope of investors. I continue to have strong commitment to the stock because they have numerous competitive advantages -- EBM has superior features over laser sintering technologies (speed, weld pool temperature, infill density), Arcam will expand their production this year (upping revenue and profit) --- which gives them a high likelihood of improving their financials. This will definitely bump their share price. But that is not all.

    Because their stock value is depressed, and they are the EBM leader, they are an attractive acquisition candidate by companies looking to secure access to metal printers on a large scale. GE Aviation bought Morris Technologies in 2012 for this reason. Importantly, given the attractive growth this market, any buyout would likely demand a significant premium. So what is most important for interested investors now is calling the price bottom. As I stated above, there is a good case to be made that Arcam will find support at around $33.40.

    Please weigh in with your thoughts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sigma's dental implant patent

    by zoedach99 Feb 20, 2014 4:20 PM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Feb 25, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    SGLB has a patent on a surface "texture" that 3D printers create when printing a dental implant that speeds up tissue healing. They have a company that markets this for them. It was announced November 2013 which. They obtained this patent from work at Los Alamos National Laboratories as well as others that they are now working on way to monetize.

  • Reply to

    KOL?

    by pgsylves Feb 23, 2014 5:11 PM
    rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Feb 25, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    The answer is simple, big pharma uses thousands of suppliers in their R&D and clinical trial processes. Why spend the billions you need to in-licensing drugs on buying suppliers? While tissue samples can save you lots of money by getting a decision made earlier, it is not a core-competency for a pharma company to invest in 3d bio-printing. Their business is finding and commercializing new drugs. Testing is just one step in that process.

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