Maybe I am just a wide-eyed optimist, but I view it as a shortage of sellers. It makes me smile to see the order desk with low prices on the buy side and no sellers willing to dive to those levels... thus... no deals and low volume. With a little news, the smile will turn to a laugh as the shorts try cover. I just hope the sellers stay the course and don't fall for selling at $5 or $6, or even $8... make them squirm.
sirmichael...I'm not sure if I'm reading the test results correctly, but it appears to me that the IELT is delayed by over 100%. I would think that if you are in the "sub 1 minute group" that being able to double your time would have some real "value." I would think that even 20 seconds in that kind of a state would be worth a few bucks!
What I find most intriguing is that thus far there has only been discussion of the "clinical" market for the drug - those with a clinical diagnosis (I think it is under 2 minutes) - and those numbers are enormous. What has not been mentioned is the "recreational" market. I am pretty sure that a large group of studly guys in the 20s, 30s or even 40s and 50s (if not everyone!) wouldn't mind taking an otherwise fairly innocuous drug if it can make them perform better in bed. I think that market is probably even larger than the clinical market and could get to 50% of all sexually active males.
Back to your original question, I would think that for someone with the problem, that 20 seconds... or 40 seconds... or 60 seconds... is HUGE. Try standing on your head... 20 seconds is an eternity! I would think it must be so frustrating to all involved that a 100% increase, at whatever length of time, would be very "valuable."
Just a guess and some of my thoughts.
sirmichael..,. you are 100% correct. However, I think the excitement (in everything except the stock) comes from the following:
1. Zertane has already undergone 2 successful phase III trials (Australia) and thus shown to be effective
2. The drug has no safety concerns
3. The FDA has never previously established any kind of standard by which to measure a PE drug, and thus has never approved one
4. The FDA's approval of the questionnaire was/is the biggest challenge facing approval of Zertane in light of #1 and #2 above
5. Ampio apparently "owns" the rights to the only approval criteria for a PE drug (Interesting, although I would expect that others - J&J? - could come up with their own questionnaire)
6. Ampio's statement that a partner deal was imminent pending approval of the questionnaire by the FDA.
7. The drug could be bigger than Viagra (PE is more prevalent than ED)
But yes... you are correct that Zertane has not been approved - yet - and anything can happen.
Agree on all points... with a few others:
- Once the stock sustains itself over $5 there is a much better chance and opportunity for some major coverage. Many firms cannot/do not make markets/provide coverage for stocks under $5.
- There are over 3M shares short. Hopefully smart longs are not willing to sell at these low prices. These shorts are going to NEED to cover - and pay whatever they must to do so - in the near future. Hold out as a seller. This 10%+ of the float MUST buy to cover at some point. Don't sell unless YOU MUST if you are long. It could make good gains into truly extraordinary gains.
- Investor relations is both an art and science. Unfortunately it is common for relatively unsophisticated management of a public company to put someone without the requisite background into this critical position. I ran a public company and made the same mistake of putting a very bright, hardworking child of a major investor into the IR role. HUGE mistake. For me, the shareholders and the major investor. He would have been better off buying his son a company to run - he would have made more money on his stock with good IR than he might have lost on the company he bought for his kid. - Oh well.
- Ampio's primary concern is rightfully the advancement of the company and its pipeline - not the current level of its stock price. Of course capital needs, lower costs of accessing capital, and the like are important, but they have been judicious in using their capital to advance their pipeline instead of increasing the stock price. But its a matter of balance. I tend to think they are a little (or more than little) light in bringing IR expertise.
- It will all come out in the wash eventually if their pipeline proves valid and they blow it. May take longer than we'd like, and not garner the support it could, but it is what it is.