Using Yahoo's estimates of $1.10 for 2015 and $1.53 for 2016 and based on the current price, that gives us a forward PE of 23 and 16, respectively. That is not expensive. If the price drops to the "predicted" price range of $22-23, then the valuation becomes even more appealing. I will be a big options buyer at that price.
IMHO, the key is the next earnings report. If Jason (ceo) forecasts a 15% growth rate again, the stock will trend flat to lower. If the 2nd quarter's income, excluding extra items, grows 10% from the 1st quarter's income, we could see the $40's again, soon after the report. In past earnings reports, the 1st quarter's earnings are slow, but the 2nd quarter shows a nice jump in earnings. If this pattern repeats, we will be rewarded.
Strong buy at $22-23.
What are you talking about? FFO is on the increase, NOT decrease. Revpar is growing. The retail numbers this morning show that consumers are spending, and we are entering the vacation and travel season. The 2nd and 3rd qtrs are HPT's best qtrs. Divies will be increased before they are decreased. We're looking good for the next couple of years.
IMHO, the recent weakness in stock price is result of the interest rate increases, not company fundamentals.
And where did you read about a special divy?
I have a question about the 65% earn-out for the remainder of this year. Does IMH have to paid the earn-out on "ALL" CCM net profits (including the expansion into other states) or just on the net profits from states established at the time of sale? This question is for anyone, not just John.
I agree. It's got to be a short squeeze, because the recent rise in interest rates is not good for business. I just heard the talking heads on tv mention that the rising interest rates are impacting refi's.
Man, oh man, this is looking like 2013 all over again. I hope I'm wrong. Just be careful.
Listen, if you have thought this thru, and you're comfortable with the trade, then good for you. Don't listen to anyone's opinion. It's your money, and they don't have any skin in your game.
Back in 2012-2013, the stock price ran from $2 and peaked at $18, only to fall off a cliff, then had a dead cat bounce, and leveled off. For the next 6-8 months, it went sideways for awhile, and then it slowly and painfully declined to about $5 a share. The recent price movement has a similarly eerie pattern.
Remember back in the first half of 2013, they were hiring additional staff to handle the boom in rifi's. It never materialized. By summertime, they laid off those people. So, why is this time "different?" I'm sure many of you will say because of the Cash Call purchase. I hope so. The next qtr earnings report is critical for management's credibility and our success.
IMHO, the stock price must fill the recent gap. So, it could retrace to the $14 level. Is that a good buy point? That's up to you.
Keep a few of things in mind regarding this qtr:
1) Half the country was in a deep freeze last qtr, and we still reported 83 cents FFO. We beat by 4 cents
2) On the conference call, management stated that the renovation project is winding down. This will reduce the capex spending going forward, increasing net income
3) This company has beat estimates for the last 4 qtrs
4) Management stated a 6-8% increase in revpar going forward
With increased revenues and a reduction in expenses, imho they will beat estimates this year, which are $3.56 FFO (source: yahoo). They could beat by 16-20 cents. That gives us a p/e of about 8. At around $30 a share, this is a great buy.
So, why is the stock price still low? IMHO, institutional investors view our company as a yield company NOT a GROWTH company. However, that view will change over time. Look at the hospitality companies, they are still in an uptrend and growing. I think HPT will catch up.
At a p/e of 8, 6.7% yield, prospects of increased divies, HPT should be in everyone's investment portfolio.
Sentiment: Strong Buy