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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

roamingmann 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 24, 2015 1:20 AM Member since: Oct 24, 2001
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  • Reply to

    SYZM HOPE-IUM addicts await CC

    by mwb678 Feb 23, 2015 6:02 AM
    roamingmann roamingmann Feb 24, 2015 1:20 AM Flag

    I think Wolfson should be out, Out, OUT. No, wait a minute, he should be IN PRISON. The man is totally incompetent and so is his entire management. He's running a scam.

    And no, I'm not short, I'm a stupid long looking at a huge loss. I am so sick of this guy.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • roamingmann roamingmann Feb 13, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    Why should earnings increase? Are you saying that because it's cold electricity usage will be up? How many homes are heated by electricity versus nat gas or heating oil? I just don't understand your comment. Could you please expound on it?

  • Reply to

    Firing on all 7 cylinders

    by earlvv Feb 6, 2015 6:04 PM
    roamingmann roamingmann Feb 6, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    I just read your post. Good Points. Thanks

  • Reply to

    Firing on all 7 cylinders

    by earlvv Feb 6, 2015 6:04 PM
    roamingmann roamingmann Feb 6, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    Good comment. Agree with much of it.

    Here are the reasons why I think the stock is down (source: conference call):
    1) the supply chain issues. this increased the cost of goods, and it will carry over into this qtr. will it get resolved this qtr?
    2) the guidance was for 10-15% growth. too conservative. that's not enough for a high flyer.
    3) the strong dollar. currency exchange is a big concern
    4) based on the above points, the market valuation is too high

    So, is there a management confidence issue at this point?

  • roamingmann roamingmann Feb 6, 2015 3:17 PM Flag

    IMHO, the company will report a 4th qtr loss. Two to four million loss. Reasons: 1) 4th qtr is the slowest qtr, and 2) increased expenses to deal with Cash Call purchase.

    However, it's the guidance that we move the stock price. Let's hope it's positive.

  • A sharp move in price, in either direction, will happen very soon.

  • Back in Aug of last year, my call was for $36 this year. But some things have changed. Here's a list of the positives for this year:

    - Renovation project is complete (lower capex spending)
    - Increased revpars
    - Lower oil and gas prices (benefits hospitality)
    - Lower capital demands
    - Investors searching for yield

    I think divies will be increased to at least 52 cents a qtr, annually $2.08. Divide this by a 5% yield and you get a $41 stock price. I think 2015 is just the START of a few good years for HPT. One caveat, if they make a stupid acquisition, like another TA. That TA acquisition set us back for about 5 years. Let's hope they don't do that again. Constructive comments welcomed.

  • Reply to

    Huh...What?

    by pianotzz Jan 13, 2015 11:38 AM
    roamingmann roamingmann Jan 13, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    My guess is investors were not impressed with the guidance numbers.

  • Reply to

    Cash Call

    by magalo555 Dec 19, 2014 4:33 PM
    roamingmann roamingmann Jan 8, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    Kudos. What about an earnings' forecast?

  • Or will we have to wait til the next qtr (again)?

  • roamingmann roamingmann Jan 2, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Look at this excerpt from a news release regarding the down grade:

    "Cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland Capital. Price target raised by $7 to $40 a share, with analyst Michael Latimore writing, "Sierra is the best way to invest in the diverse IoT/M2M market.""

    Huh??? It's like telling your wife, she's getting older and ugly, but you still love her. What kind of analyst is this?

  • ... at $100. Maybe not tomorrow or next week or next year, but someday. BTW, my avg price is $19. If you get in now, you will still get a double.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Posting Disappeared

    by jdm1234567892002 Dec 3, 2014 6:45 PM
    roamingmann roamingmann Dec 3, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    That was me. Sorry. After I received a stupid reply (surprise!), I deleted the post. It was all true, 15% decline in revs and a 44% decline in earnings. I found the answer in the 10Q on Edgar. Here's the excerpt from the statement:

    "Cost of Product Sold. Cost of product sold is primarily comprised of pet coke expense and freight and distribution expenses and purchased ammonia costs. Cost of product sold (exclusive of depreciation and amortization) for the nine months ended September 30, 2014 was $56.6 million, compared to $39.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2013. The $17.4 million increase resulted from $19.0 million in higher costs from transactions with third parties, partially offset by lower costs from transactions with affiliates of $1.6 million. The higher third-party costs incurred during the nine months ended September 30, 2014 were primarily the result of ammonia purchases (approximately 30,000 tons for the nine months ended September 30, 2014 and 5,000 tons in the nine months ended September 30, 2013) and increased railcar repairs and inspections.

    "Direct Operating Expenses. Direct operating expenses include costs associated with the actual operations of our plant, such as repairs and maintenance, energy and utility costs, property taxes, catalyst and chemical costs, outside services, labor and environmental compliance costs. Direct operating expenses (exclusive of depreciation and amortization) for the nine months ended September 30, 2014 were $77.2 million as compared to $70.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2013. The $6.5 million increase resulted primarily from higher utilities ($4.3 million), refractory brick amortization ($2.1 million), catalyst amortization ($0.6 million), partially offset by lower insurance ($0.8 million). The increased utility costs were largely due to higher electrical volumes."

    I still don't like the answer. Why are "transaction costs" so high?

TA
13.85-0.15(-1.07%)Feb 26 4:02 PMEST

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