Your estimates are way too optimistic. They already reported July originations at $740M. That means we need more than $1.1B on avg. for Aug and Sep. NO WAY! They reported that the expansion into the other states won't show up until the 4th qtr. NO WAY, we make 2.95B originations.
Well, did management meet your expectations for this qtr? They blamed the rise in interest rates for the Q2 miss back in 2012. They used the same excuse this past qtr. Deja vu?
I feel bad that I only sold a third of my holdings at $26. Now, I have to wait for the next spike. Will it be another 2 years?
They beat on revenue. They beat on earnings. They guided higher for the rest of the year. The fair valuation will come. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but it will come someday. In the meantime, just collect the divy and relax.
I just listened to the cc, and I think the main concern is the debt. Management said they like to keep the debt between 45-50%, and the current level is 51% and expected to grow to 52% very soon. IMHO, this will prevent the company from raising the divy, and THAT is causing a drag on the stock price.
BTW, I just bought more at $26.65. I kinda like a 7.5% divy.
Using Yahoo's estimates of $1.10 for 2015 and $1.53 for 2016 and based on the current price, that gives us a forward PE of 23 and 16, respectively. That is not expensive. If the price drops to the "predicted" price range of $22-23, then the valuation becomes even more appealing. I will be a big options buyer at that price.
IMHO, the key is the next earnings report. If Jason (ceo) forecasts a 15% growth rate again, the stock will trend flat to lower. If the 2nd quarter's income, excluding extra items, grows 10% from the 1st quarter's income, we could see the $40's again, soon after the report. In past earnings reports, the 1st quarter's earnings are slow, but the 2nd quarter shows a nice jump in earnings. If this pattern repeats, we will be rewarded.
Strong buy at $22-23.
What are you talking about? FFO is on the increase, NOT decrease. Revpar is growing. The retail numbers this morning show that consumers are spending, and we are entering the vacation and travel season. The 2nd and 3rd qtrs are HPT's best qtrs. Divies will be increased before they are decreased. We're looking good for the next couple of years.
IMHO, the recent weakness in stock price is result of the interest rate increases, not company fundamentals.
And where did you read about a special divy?
I have a question about the 65% earn-out for the remainder of this year. Does IMH have to paid the earn-out on "ALL" CCM net profits (including the expansion into other states) or just on the net profits from states established at the time of sale? This question is for anyone, not just John.
I agree. It's got to be a short squeeze, because the recent rise in interest rates is not good for business. I just heard the talking heads on tv mention that the rising interest rates are impacting refi's.
Man, oh man, this is looking like 2013 all over again. I hope I'm wrong. Just be careful.