Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board
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A DOZEN REASONS why I am more bullish on CELG than anytime since the early days...
Unfortunately this new ymb format will not allow posting of this long post - see InvestorVillage CELG board from my dozen reasons and more -
Full Bernstein comment does not fit - see investor village CELG board for full report but this comment is of PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT Bernstein comment on current CELG management team - consistent with my post yesterday......
· Management transition now complete and new (ish) team finding their groove. In many ways we view these investor events as a Rorschach test of a management's strategy, confidence and command of their business. Leadership are subject to extended questioning at such events that is more open and spontaneous than the careful orchestration of quarterly conference calls and investor conference presentations. In this respect Celgene's management will have gained credibility with investors – there were no embarrassing gaffes, disappointments or differences of opinion or views; the company offered up many different executives, rather than just the usual carefully scripted "c-suite" leadership, and those executives echoed the enthusiasm and energy conveyed by those top executives. While the company's CEO and CFO answered questions at the end of the event, the vast majority of the content, and the commentary, came from division or functional unit managers. This will give investors confidence that the company's leadership bench is deep and talented, that their industry knowledge and expertise is broad, and that the technical and commercial judgments are being made on the best expertise and information available in the industry. At times in the past Celgene have been regarded as quirky and "out-of-synch" with the industry, but after yesterday's presentation investors are likely to consider them industry innovation leaders, at least in a specific set of technology and disease domains.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Best Celgene event by far in my 15 yrs as investor, Hugin deserves huge credit for building perhaps the most impressive team in all of biotech - operating leverage, upside to ests, 5 separate billion/yr drugs, incredible early stage pipeline....
I was lucky enough to attend yesterday's Celgene analyst day in NYC and came away overwhelmed with optimism for the future - from the clear path to billion $ a yr blockbuster for five drugs already - Revlimid, Pomalyst, Abraxane, Apremilast and Vidaza (on international sales alone with oral aza now appearing to have huge upside as an epigenetic primer) , to the amazing pipeline, to what most impressed me and others yesterday - the incredible talent they now have as an executive team and in key leadership rolls..I can't fit my comments with the space limitations on yahoo - so please see my post on Investor Village CELG message board. -
See my post on investor village ZIOP board on this....unfortunately yahoo has made it impossible to post even medium length posts and links - kind of the main purpose for investment boards....so I take my posting to IV
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IOC Ray James comments from "Analyst Favorites" May report
InterOil Corp. (o) IOC 2 $100.00 $79.12 NA $3,909 Energy/
Exploration and Production - Pavel Molchanov
In the near future, InterOil is likely to make perhaps the most impactful announcement in its company history – the long-awaited liquefied natural gas (LNG) partner selection and resource selldown. Final bids from prospective partners were received on February 28, and the selection of the “winner” will be made by the board.
With the stock currently pricing in only $0.70/Mcf of gas resource – vs. the regional industry average of around $1.20/Mcf for analogous transactions over the past five years – we think the validation provided by the partnership announcement should meaningfully reset valuation. -
From Platts - see investorvillage or SHU for full article
Of the three oil and gas majors understood to be vying for a share of US-listed junior InterOil’s Gulf LNG project in Papua New Guinea, Shell is being tipped by some industry insiders as the bidder most likely to succeed. - Reply to
Great MM015 news just out-Revlimid increases QofL (Velcade decreases)
by rob_cos •May 2, 2013 4:57 PMThe improvement in QoL observed during induction was maintained during maintenance and at cycle 16 of Revlimid.
All QoL domains were statistically significantly improved over baseline except side effects from treatment, which was not different from baseline. Clinically meaningful differences were more frequently observed in patients receiving MPR-R than MP, especially for physical functioning.
Our View:
o We think achievement of a clinically meaningful improvement in QoL favoring MPR-R over MP in the MM-015 trial is important from both a commercial and regulatory perspective and supports use of Revlimid in the transplant-ineligible population.
o An amplification of the favorable Revlimid QoL signal in patients aged 65-75 years supports CELG’s focus on this subset of patients for the MM-015-based regulatory filings.
o In Europe, Velcade, combined with MP, is a standard of care for the elderly nontransplant- eligible myeloma population; however, QoL scores were documented to decrease in the first four cycles of induction in the VISTA trial clearly in contrast to the addition of Revlimid to MP in MM-015. -
BMO Capital Markets - Celgene Target: $143.00 Outperform
Published QOL Data From MM-015 Supports Revlimid Frontline - The improvement in QoL observed during induction was maintained during maintenance and at cycle 16 of Revlimid.
Flash: MM-015 investigators published a review of health-related quality of life (QoL) data from the MM-015 trial for Celgene's (CELG) Revlimid as frontline maintenance therapy in transplant ineligible patients with multiple myeloma in the May issue of the journal Hematologica (Dimopoulos et al.).
A comparison of QoL changes between MP and MPR-R cohorts using both the global QLQ-30 and myeloma-specific QLQ-MY20 tools was a pre-defined secondary endpoint of the MM-015 trial. During induction, global QoL improved 12.2 points in the MPRR cohort compared with 6.2 points in the MP cohort (p -
Needham Slide - Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis (ADP) - Neurology Expansion Opp for Pim...ADP afflicts 25%-50% of the 5.4 million U.S. Alzheimer's patients...to me their is huge upside in off-label and then ph 2 sNDA in ADP as everything used now is off-label and deadly - patients are dying on the anti-psychotics...FDA will want this approved and if Ph 2 is decent I think they will approve on sNDA
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Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis (ADP)
Neurology Expansion Opportunity for Pimavanserin
o ADP afflicts 25% to 50% of the 5.4 million Alzheimer's disease patients in U.S.
o No FDA-approved drug for ADP
o Current anti-psychotics black box warning for use in ADP
o MOA and safety profile of pimavanserin attractive for ADP
o Development and regulatory synergies with PDP
o Ph II planned for initiation in H2-13 -
Just out ACAD mgt to meet with Jeffries on May 1-3 in Boston/NY/San Fran
12:25 EDT ACAD
theflyonthewall ACADIA management to meet with Jefferies
Meetings to be held in Boston/New York/San Francisco on May 1-3 hosted by Jefferies. theflyonthewall -
10:20 EDT IOC theflyonthewall: InterOil CEO exit makes sale of company more likely, says Westlake
Westlake believes the retirement of InterOil's CEO makes a sale of the entire company or a higher proportion of the resource base more likely and reiterates a Buy rating and $115 price target on InterOil shares. -
Interesting Apr call buys a@37.50,50, 55, 57.50,60,62.50 & 90 strike- quiet covering?
Interesting call buys - deep in the money on the Aprils expiring Friday. Seems like quiet covering hoping not to drive stock up too much.
400 April 37.50s, 400 Ap 50, 1000+ April 55. 1067 april 57.50, 2015 April 60, 501 April 62.50 all in the money so they want stock - and then a real interesting 3206 April 90s with stock in 74s and 3 trading days left until expiration.
Shorty getting nervous? Or does a long know something.Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Agree - IOC is simply the most manipulated stock on the entire NYSE. First of all over 80% of the trades ARE NOT ON THE NYSE. They are hidden in dark pools and the manipulation is palatable. The bid and ask spreads are larger than any NYSE I have ever owned. BY FAR. When I hit an ask of 800 shares sometimes they give me 50 and pull the rest - something that should never happen with a NYSE stock. When they are buying in dark pools they show 100 shares but you can hit it 50 times and it keeps being replaced.
Then can send this NYSE stock down $2 on little volume. Agree the stock often reacts BEFORE Adam's stories hit. The premiums in the puts and calls allow them to cash in on the manipulation - which is often coordinated with IOC stories in BS PNG blogs or on SA with a failed poker player with no energy background who has been wrong so much about IOC yet still is allowed to call mgt "crooked" and get his ridiculously negative headlines published on yahoo finance to scare.How you can he call IOC management "crooked" and be allowed to be published is a head scratcher, especially since he has been telling people to short IOC since Nov 2011 when the stock was in the 30's and then ran to the 90s. Who is crooked are the hedge funds that short IOC and manipulate the trading by hiding over 80% of the volume of this NYSE company in dark pools, and then get articles in the PNG press, hire known felons like Barry Minkow to publish questionable articles (Minkow is back in jail after being hired by a famous IOC short hedge fund). As an ex poker player with NO energy or finance background - it really is amazing how many articles this nothing gets published. or his hedgie friends. Soon he will be shut up on IOC forever -
See rest of post on investorvillage CELG board. Yahoo cuts off posts
New ISI #'s even at $117 - 2013 CELG PEG is 0.7 vs 1.9-1.2 for AMGN & BIIB. PEG is 0.7/0.5 x for '14/'15. (In 2015 -
Even after this run CELG STILL is under 1.0 PEG and AMGN PEG on 2015 #'s of 1.6 is THREE TIMES CELG 0.5. Believe it or not, $123 doesn't come close to properly valuing CELG EPS growth....
From last week
New ISI #'s even at $117 - 2013 CELG PEG is 0.7 vs 1.9-1.2 for AMGN & BIIB. PEG is 0.7/0.5 x for '14/'15. (In 2015 -
CELG: we increase our PO from $127 (15x 2015 EPS) to $143 (17x 2015
EPS, discounted by three quarters of a period), and we expect multiple
expansion from the current 13x 2015 EPS driven by 1) MM-020 study results
– we are positively biased; 2) diversifying revenue base, we have positive
survey feedback on both of CELG’s near term growth drivers; 3) nothing
priced in for early stage pipeline (more clarity at the May analyst event). -
OT - this article saying IOC close to deal with Shell driving IOC higher today...
IOC-SHELL
Canadian company InterOil is poised to sign a partnership agreement with a major company to join the proposed Gulf liquefied natural gas project in Papua New Guinea, with Anglo-Dutch supermajor Shell tipped as the likely party.
It is understood the two sides are finalising the terms and conditions of a partnership agreement and this is expected to be achieved soon, said sources.
Once completed, the agreement will mark the conclusion of a protracted process, and will satisfy the demands of the PNG government which insisted that an LNG major be involved in the project for it to receive the state’s final approval to proceed. The terms of the potential deal are not yet known, but sources in the capital Port Moresby said word had been filtering through for several weeks that InterOil’s advisors had recommended a party, which is Shell.
The Anglo-Dutch supermajor said it had no comment to make on the issue.
The new partner will become the project operator and earn a major equity stake in exchange for undisclosed compensation to InterOil, said sources.
The new entrant would have to be absolutely confident about the gas resource that will underpin the project, namely InterOil’s Elk-Antelope fields, and it is understood that various companies have been studying reservoir data carefully these past months.
Late last year, Shell had sounded lukewarm about the InterOil process.
The company acknowledged at the time it had been in discussions with the Canadian company “intermittently over the last year or two”, but had not made any formal proposal “given that we were unable to access all available technical data”.
At the beginning of last month, InterOil said it had received “several bids” to be a partner in the Gulf LNG project, and its advisors would assess these offers during March 2013.
Continued in Reply to this as yahoo limits size -
Posted Roth, SunTrust, PJ target raise reports...on investorvillage ACAD board - trying here but yhoo makes it impossible
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Roth "FDA decision helps ACAD valuation in 4 ways. Pim to be widely prescribed, incl off-label Alzheimers given clean label - peak sales reaching well over $1 billion...Increasing Target to $20"...
Full rpt doesnt post on yahoo - this and other full reports on Investorvillage ACAD board
Roth Capital Partners, LLC
Estimates Changed, Target Price Increased
12-Mo.Price Target $20.00
ACAD: Pimavanserin Development Accelerates
After meeting with FDA, based on the strength and consistency of the results for pimavanserin in the 020 study, another Phase 3 study is not necessary for its filing for psychosis related to Parkinson's disease. This moves forward pimavanserin's estimated approval to late 2015, and increases the possibility of a takeover of Acadia, given the scarcity of meaningful CNS assets. We reiterate our Buy and raise our ACAD target to $20.
Important Progress for Pimavanserin: No Additional Phase 3 Needed.
After a meeting with FDA, Acadia management has determined that based on the strength of the recent Phase 3 results onm study 020 for pimavansein in Parkinson's psychosis, another Phase 3 study is not necessary. This positive and rare occurrence is based on the strength of the therapy's 020 study, which was a large multicenter study, that demonstrated strong, consistent data across a number of metrics.
Pimavanserin's 020 Study Results Lead to Early Consideration by FDA.