Based on approval, label, competitive outlook, we are increasing our Abraxane sales forecasts to $1.2 bn in 2015 and $1.8 bn in 2017. These forecasts are increased by 2-3% in 2013-2015 and by 4-5% in outer years. Our estimates are in line and 2% below consensus for 2013 and 2014, respectively, 5% higher than consensus for 2015 and more or less consistent with consensus in outer years. Our Abraxane revenue projections are now toward the upper end of Celgene's most recent long term guidance for the product of $1.0-1.25bn in 2015 and $1.5-2.0bn for 2017. We do not currently include any revenue expectations from melanoma or other indications where Abraxane is currently undergoing clinical testing and we continue to forecast a slow launch for the product in major ex-US markets.
∑ We reiterate our Outperform rating for Celgene, and are raising our target price to $170 from $166. Our revenue estimates are unchanged for Thalomid, Revlimid, Pomalyst and Vidaza; based on our updated Abraxane revenue estimates our total revenue estimates are unchanged near term but see a 1% increase in outer years. Our revenue forecast remains 3-7% above consensus. Accordingly, our EPS estimates are unchanged in 2013 and then increased by 1% based on incremental increases in Abraxane revenue. Our adjusted EPS estimates are now 6-7% higher than consensus near term and 16% higher in outer years.
We rate Celgene Outperform with a target price of $170. Celgene has taken an old and discarded drug (thalidomide) and invented a whole new class of compounds and a novel approach to cancer treatment based on research into thalidomide’s original activity. Revlimid is now the core of the company's portfolio and we expect it to maintain that position through its 2025-2026 patent life. Our forecasts incorporate a further doubling in Revlimid revenue through 2018, with even more upside possible from other indications such as Lymphoma and Leukemia.
Over the next three years, we expe
Celgene's Abraxane is a frequently overlooked, and discounted, component of the company's revenue mix. Since the 2010 acquisition of Abraxis, investors have underestimated the product, despite a steady stream of positive pivotal trial data, and an improving revenue contribution (+10% in 2012/8% of total revenue). Abraxane is one of the three emerging bolt-on late stage products in the company's portfolio (with Pomalyst and apremilast) that could together as much as one third of revenue by 2017. As a modified version of a standard cytotoxic chemotherapy, Abraxane lacks the pizzaz of high profile targeted therapies and antibodies, but given the tough diseases it is now approved in (metastatic breast, metastatic lung and pancreatic cancer) adoption, share, duration and sales should still be significant.
∑ Abraxane's expanded label is a key driver for the growth of Celgene's solid tumor franchise. Abraxane was initially developed by Abraxis, a company acquired by Celgene in 2010, and approved in the U.S. in recurrent metastatic breast cancer in 2005. The drug's label was expanded in October 2012 with approval as frontline therapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and including patients with squamous histology. On September 6th 2013 the FDA approved Abraxane for use in a third indication, as frontline therapy for metastatic pancreatic cancer. With anticipated phase III mature overall survival (OS) data from a study of Abraxane in melanoma in 2H13, there could be further upside to the potential of this therapy and the drug is now entered another group of phase III trials in serious solid tumor diseases.
o Given the lack of available treatment options in pancreatic cancer, we anticipate significant use of Abraxane. The drug's label in the U.S. includes a statistically significant 1.8 months improvement in
both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), as well as more than doubling of response rates seen in the control group with standard of care g
See Investor Village Board for entire report as it cuts off her - IV CELG board has more...
Bernstein out today "Abraxane frequently overlooked/underestimated..good/broad label - adoption, share, duration & sales should be significant....one of 3 bolt on late stage products...raising ests & target to $170. Outperform".
CELG: Diving Into the Opportunity for Abraxane in Multiple Cancers, Modest Revenue & EPS Upside; Outperform, TP $170
Target Price (Previous Target Price) 170.00 (166.00)
With the approval of Abraxane for frontline pancreatic cancer last week, we are taking a closer look at the opportunity for Celgene's flagship solid tumor medicine in all its approved indications. The expansion of Abraxane label in pancreatic cancer was consistent with our expectations, given the dearth of acceptable treatment options in a highly aggressive disease and the demonstrated improvement in both progression free and overall survival but the approval came slightly sooner than we expected, and with a label that was as good (and broad) as it could possibly be.
In our analysis we consider the current treatment landscape for pancreatic cancer which consists mainly of low toxicity (but subpar efficacy) gemcitabine monotherapy and higher efficacy, higher toxicity complex chemotherapy regimens such as FOLFIRINOX. Abraxane, added to gem, slots neatly between the two, and should capture significant share from both alternatives over time. We are updating are estimates to reflect increased adoption of Abraxane in its newly approved indication as well as in previously indicated metastatic breast and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
o Celgene's Abraxane is a frequently overlooked, and discounted, component of the company's revenue mix. Since the 2010C acquisition of Abraxis, investors have underestimated the product, despite a steady stream of positive pivotal trial data, and an improving revenue contribution (+10% in 2012/8% of total revenue). Abraxane is
Can't fit on yahoo but see Investorvillage CELG message board for FULL transcripts of CEO Hugin and COO Karsen's very upbeat presentations at Morgan Stanley and Stifel Healthcare conferences on Tues of Weds of this week.....replaces are also available on Celgene website investor relations section....gonna blow through 150 for good....yesterday was all time closing high.
Palace 2 and 3 and Pooled data of the three Ph 3 trials with new 52 week data about to open some eyes
CEO Hugin couldn't be more excited about Apremilast - says now have SIX very positive Phase 3 trial results in - approval in March - and they are getting better with time. Should have pooled 52 week data of 3 of those trials and new data on 52 wks of Palace 2 and Palace 3 Ph 3 trials. Apremilast is going to be an international blockbuster.