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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

rob_cos 171 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Dec 31, 1997
  • Reply to

    CELG back into consolidation mode

    by dividendseeker Jan 23, 2015 11:15 AM

    CELG always saves something for the actual earnings call

  • Reply to

    CELG back into consolidation mode

    by dividendseeker Jan 23, 2015 11:15 AM

    Huh?!?!?! We just had three straight days of higher highs/ higher lows / new intraday highs and new closing all time highs - three days in a row.
    CONSOLIDATION?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

  • rob_cos rob_cos Jan 26, 2015 12:05 AM Flag

    You are welcome...management is clearly telegraphing good data and an immuno-oncology partnership with Big Pharma/Bio is coming...ZIOP is headed much higher imo...See investor village for more reports and better format (easier to read)

  • Reply to

    Need some suggestions

    by linkuofm Jan 25, 2015 3:01 PM
    rob_cos rob_cos Jan 26, 2015 12:04 AM Flag

    CRMD, ACAD, AGIO, CELG, ZIOP - see investorvillage board for reasons...ZIOP should have news soon imo

  • Wow- ZIOP a NEW RECOMMENDATION in prestigious BioInvest Med Tech Stock Letter- We expect the company to execute multiple partnerships as their technology could address a myriad of commercial oncology opportunities. Buy under $9 initial target price $14"

    They have a great track record/reputation and have been on fire the past four yrs....this is a major positive and should be followed by more news for sure.


    New Recommendation: ZIOPHARM Oncology (ZIOP) is a second-generation gene therapy company focused on the development of new cancer treatments with a laser focus on the red-hot immunooncology
    (I/O) sector. ZIOP licensed its gene expression control technology from synthetic-biology innovator Intrexon for use in the development of DNA-based oncology treatments. Under an exclusive channel partner agreement, the two companies have collaborated to develop a tightly controlled system that injects a gene-expression package into tumors to express the anti-tumor cytokine interleukin-12 (IL-12), but only when patients take a pill that contains a ligand to activate the IL-12 gene. When the patient stops taking the pill, IL-12 expression stops, allowing for specific dosing for a set time. Expression is controlled by Intrexon’s proprietary biologic switch known as the RheoSwitch. The ability to administer or withdraw the pill to control gene expression is a key safety benefit.

    Game Changing News for ZIOP: Last week, ZIOP and Intrexon announced they had licensed a unique MD Anderson immunotherapy technology, creating an alliance to hone a new way of customizing immune system attack cells to find and kill cancer cells. The two companies each agreed to pay MD Anderson $50 million in company stock — a total of $100 million — to license technology developed in the lab of Laurence Cooper, M.D., Ph.D., professor of Pediatrics, including a new method for genetically engineering immune T cells to target cancer.

    Importantly, the companies and MD Anderson expect the collaboration to yield next-generation therapies based on designer cytokines and CAR-T cells under the control of RheoSwitch to target both blood and solid tumor cancers. First generation CAR-T companies are limited to blood cancers at this point due to severe toxicity. They project five patient derived CAR-T cells to enter the clinic in 2015 with off-the-shelf programs starting in 2016.

    MD Anderson’s Sleeping Beauty Delivery System Key to Deal: The technology licensed from MD Anderson, known as Sleeping Beauty, is, in our view, much better than recombinant viral DNA delivery methods used to create first generation CAR-T cells. Sleeping Beauty is a faster, simpler and more nimble process for customizing T cells, while also being far less expensive. The system is named Sleeping Beauty because it is able to “awaken” an extinct transposon – DNA that can replicate itself and insert the copy back into the genome.

    “It is a shared vision to maximize the speed and breadth of multigenic innovation for patients through the use of nimble, nonviral DNA cell manufacturing strategies that can further overcome viral packaging constraints and economic limitations,” stated Gregory Frost, Ph.D., senior vice president and head of Intrexon’s Health Sector. “Collectively, this will assemble the most advanced set of technologies to empower the strongest adoptive cell therapy pipeline that can drive innovation.”

    Why CAR-T? It is amazing the huge buzz that CART has created given that only an estimated 300 patients have been treated. The CAR-T technology has been established broadly in the elite academic centers with the University of Pennsylvania, Baylor College of Medicine, City of Hope, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC)/Seattle Children’s, MD Anderson and the National Cancer Institute leading the way in the U.S. In the last two years, agreements have been formed to commercialize CAR-T technologies, with KITE and Juno examples of newly established pure-play T cell therapeutic companies. In addition several companies have licensed CAR-T technology including NVS, JNJ, PFE, and CELG.

    1st Generation CAR-T More Box-CART than Race-CART: First-generation CAR-T therapies have been notorious for their severe toxicity including cytokine release syndrome/tumor lysis syndrome, which in some cases has been fatal, in fact the NCI terminated a HER2 CAR-T trial after the first patient enrolled died. In our view, the first-generation CART treatments are akin to pushing a box-cart down a hill and hoping for the best with your tennis shoes as breaks. In stark contrast, ZIOP has the ability to turn on/off their treatment while also controlling gene expression. In our view, Box-CARTs will be very expensive personalized medicines that will only treat a niche sub-set of very sick blood cancer patients due to their toxicity and expense. The real opportunity in CAR-T therapy is to create off-the shelf blood and solid tumor treatments that can address the underlying cause of the disease without major toxicity. The addition of non-viral delivery and the RheoSwitch for precise gene control makes ZIOP’s second-generation technology a Race-CART with the brakes and steering necessary to address these huge cancer markets all at a reasonable cost.

    Investment Conclusion: In our view, the MD Anderson partnership provides significant validation for ZIOP’s second-generation gene therapy platform as MD Anderson had many deep-pocketed suitors to choose from, yet chose a small-cap biotech (backed by synthetic-biology leader Intrexon). While CAR-T success in solid tumors may be more difficult to achieve, ZIOP's orally activated RheoSwitch combined with the non-viral Sleeping Beauty delivery system could be a game changer.

    Development could be very rapid in CAR-T space as we have recently witnessed the rapid transition from Phase I trials to registration studies in the space. In our view, ZIOP has the potential to catch up rapidly and
    become a leader in second-generation CAR-T treatments.

    ZIOP has all the tools to be a second generation gene therapy leader in the exciting field of I/O. The ability to package multiple genes combined with a non-viral delivery system all precisely controlled by RheoSwitch has the potential to create off-the-shelf therapies that will treat solid tumors in addition to hem/onc. We believe the Sleeping Beauty delivery system is a critical key to unleashing ZIOP’s technology. With all the critical IP now locked down with MD Anderson, the next announcement from ZIOP should be a partnership with a major pharma/bio company looking to enter the red hot I/O space. We expect the company to execute multiple partnerships as their technology could address the myriad commercial opportunities within the spectrum of oncology. ZIOP is a BUY under $9 with a TARGET PRICE of 14.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rob_cos rob_cos Jan 24, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    No chance of a secondary before multiple announcements including MDA data and an immuno-oncology deal coming in weeks per XON secondary roadshow...ZIOP will be $12 after those announcements and work higher from there

  • rob_cos rob_cos Jan 23, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    I do think data and deal comes this qtr and so does $12

  • Reply to

    GED-031

    by inbounds7 Jan 22, 2015 9:50 AM
    rob_cos rob_cos Jan 22, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Yes on one hand its very frustrating - NEJM clearly telegraphed it was soon but then takes their time....reminds me never predict what publications or EU CHMP is going to do.....BUT - I am actually pleased we are at all time higher almost $124 and still have this catalyst....would be nice to get it next week right before the earnings call so they can talk about the detailed data

  • You obviously don't follow RJ Kirk very well or for very long. EVERY move is measured and has a purpose. IMO this deal allows him to have cash in bank during the final negotiations with the likes of NVS, Roche, BMY and in my opinion will likely allow him to get probably $50 million more upfront than if he needed money. Deal is coming this qtr imo.

    I guess all the doubters of Kirk's comments before he delivered at Scios, New River, King, Clinical Data, HALO, etc will be doubters again until they will be once again proven wrong. He told you in Nov there were "Significant Transactions Underway" - I posted then he doesn't lie publicly. He delivered a BLOCKBUSTER MDA deal - but its the first of many. RJ Kirk always delivers.

    Now he has said more announcements in "Days, Weeks, Months" and an immuno-onclogy deal in weeks...I guess people still will doubt helped by the BS short hedge fund puppets on this board, twitter and seeking alpha. BUY THE DIPS THEY CAUSE. RJ Kirk has told you all you need to know.

    Been investing in biotech and posting on it for 25 yrs....it still continues to amaze me how some people panic and get negative after the smallest amount of adversity. RJ Kirk delivers a deal that more than doubled ZIOP (tripled for awhile) since Nov.....and yet people don't see the obvious. Those of us who do have profited immensely on the lack of due diligence of others...this will be no different...LOADED ZIOP dip into 6's yesterday and this am.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • XON secondary allows Kirk to have leverage in final negotiations with big pharma and biotech and likely will allow him to get $50 million more upfront than if he needed money. There will be no ZIOP secondary before the deal with big pharma/bio is announced. On the road show XON said a immuno-oncology deal will be announced in weeks. At JPM both ZIOP and XON confirmed 3 times - "more announcements are coming in days, weeks, months"- ZIOP will be $12 this half - then perhaps a small secondary although they likely will have over $100 million in the bank after deal and won't NEED to do one. BUY THE DIP the immuno-oncology deal comments will get out to a wider audience over the next few days

  • Baird-Raising Celgene Estimates, Price Target to $139 from $115. "We would now be BUYERS OF CELGENE INTO THE HIGH $130s"



    January 21, 2015 Baird Equity Research

    Biotechnology

    Rating: Outperform

    Suitability: Average Risk

    Price Target/Previous: $139/$115

    Price (1/20/15): $123.25

    Celgene Corporation (CELG)

    Circling Back After Last Week; Raising Estimates, Price Target

    Reiterate Outperform rating, new $139 price target. With last week’s guidance amounting to what we viewed as a bit of a mixed bag (FY15 guided lower, but FY20 guided much higher), we are taking the opportunity to update our model – now out to 2020, and including GED301, (among other adjustments). With this, and with taking our valuation out one year to 2017, we are now buyers to levels approaching $140.

    o Big week last week for CELG. With shares up ~8.4% since the beginning of last week, (NBI +3.1%), clearly, investors liked the guidance and pre-release provided by management on January 12 Q414 was pre-released as a slight beat but FY15 EPS guidance was lower than consensus. However, we think investors were heartened by higher FY15 revenue guidance and also focused on FY20 guidance which at $20B revenue (pre-existing consensus $16.8B) and $12.50 EPS (pre-existing consensus $11.11) was measurably higher than expectations. For our part, given management’s palpable confidence demonstrated here, we are updating our model. Three points:

    - Now taking model out to 2020. We are taking our model out to 2020, and now introduce 2019-2020 revenue of $17,482M and $19,137M, respectively, and EPS of $10.85 and $12.25, respectively.

    - About time we start modeling GED301. With Otezla’s strong Q414 beat, and robust 2020 guidance ( $3B) the nascent I&I franchise is beginning to hit its stride. The next big product in this franchise – GED301 – posted solid data in Crohn’s disease last year and with pivotal data anticipated 2017, we now model GED301 revenue of $51M, $282M, and $471M for 2018-2020, respectively.

    - Pushing valuation out a year to 2017. Now taking our valuation year to 2017, applying a 23 multiple to our new EPS estimate of $7.85, discounted back by 15%/year we derive a new price target of $139.

    o Bottom line – now buyers to levels approaching $140. With significant growth still left in flagship franchise Revlimid, but with an increasingly diverse commercial footprint, we like this stock’s set up both in the short-and-intermediate term. Buyers now to the high $130s.

    Details

    Investment conclusion – Remain buyers following updated guidance, raising price target to $139. Following last week’s pre-release and guidance update, we are incorporating changes into our model. FY14 non-GAAP EPS was pre-released at $3.71, a slight beat and though FY15 EPS guidance came in lower than consensus, higher FY15 revenue guidance and very strong FY20 guidance ( $20B in net product sales versus pre-existing consensus $16.8B) show management’s confidence for future growth. Combining these pieces, we now extend our model to 2020 and are introducing estimates for GED301, the company’s next big product in its emerging I&I franchise, to our model. With what we see as significant growth left for Revlimid, with approval in front-line multiple myeloma along with several upcoming catalysts for the company’s other commercial products including the continued launch of Otezla, among others, we think the stock is set up nicely for both the short-and-intermediate term and remain buyers to levels nearing $140

    Management provides updated financial guidance. As we detailed in our note last week, management pre-released Q414 numbers and issued a guidance update, including a long-range guidance extension out to 2020.

    o Q414 EPS in line, with Revlimid and Otezla beating consensus. CELG reported Q414 adjusted FY14 EPS of $3.71, beating pre-existing consensus by $0.01. Revlimid was reported as a slight beat with Q414 revenue ~$1.34B vs. consensus $1.33B and FY14 revenue of ~$5.0B. Otezla easily beat with Q414 revenue $47M beating consensus by ~$3M.

    o Encouraging long-range guidance provided through 2020. FY15 total product revenue guidance was narrowed upward from $8.5B-$9.5B to $9.0B-$9.5B, ahead of consensus $9.16B, though Revlimid guidance $5.6B-$5.7B fell short of consensus $5.75B and FY15 adjusted EPS

    guidance $4.60-$4.75 came in below pre-existing consensus $4.84. For 2017, Revlimid guidance is $7.0B, Pomalyst/Imnovid $1.5B, Abraxane $1.5B-$2.0B, and Otezla $1.5B-$2.0B with share count expected to be ~830M and EPS ~$7.50. Management disclosed strong 2020 financial targets including total product sales $20B, hematology franchise revenue $14.8B, oncology exceeding $2.2B, and revenue from the I&I franchise $3.0B with shares outstanding ~830M, for an adjusted EPS target of $12.50.

    Model changes. With the company pre-releasing Q414 numbers and providing updates to 2015 and 2017 guidance and introducing 2020 guidance, we are taking the opportunity to incorporate these changes and introduce estimates for 2019 and 2020. These changes include slightly moderating Revlimid revenue for 2014-2015, but increasing it over our prior estimates for 2016-2018 and introducing revenue estimates of $9,877M and $10,950M for 2019 and 2020, respectively. Based on management’s updated long-term guidance described above, we made slight adjustments to Abraxane and Pomalyst 2014-2018 and slightly modified the growth trajectory for Otezla. For GED301, we model launch in 2H18 and introduce WW estimates of $51M, $282M, and $471M for 2018-2020, respectively. The net result of these changes is an increase to our revenue estimates for

    2014-2018 and total revenue estimates of $17,482M and $19,137M for 2019 and 2020, respectively.

    Flattening our share count trajectory based on company guidance for 830M shares outstanding in both 2017 and 2020, and after slight modifications to operating expenses, our non-GAAP EPS estimates for 2014 and 2015 came down slightly to $3.71 and $4.87, respectively, but increased for 2016-2018 and we now model non-GAAP EPS of $6.21, $7.85, $9.45, $10.85, and $12.25 for 2016-2020, respectively

    Raising price target to $139. We are raising our price target to $139 (from $115 previously), which we derive by applying a 23 multiple to our 2017 (previously 2016) EPS estimate of $7.85, discounted back by 15%/year. We think management’s updated guidance update reveals tangible confidence in the company’s current commercial position and pipeline, and with many upcoming catalysts on tap, remain buyers to the high $130s.

    Investment Thesis

    o A very clean commercial story. Key commercial players Revlimid and Thalomid benefit from higher margins, complementing the company's commercial strength. The end result is robust cash generation, as 2013 saw $2.2B of cash flow from operations.

    o Revlimid is a blockbuster product in multiple myeloma. Extensive uptake in the multiple myeloma maintenance setting with 70%+ share in the US, based on our US Hem/Onc survey feedback. Continued international rollouts can contribute to what remains a strong growth trajectory for Revlimid.

    o Abraxane building momentum. We have long viewed Abraxane as an asset with significant

  • Baird raised its price target on Celgene to $139 from $115

    Celgene price target raised to $139 from $115 at RW Baird

    Baird raised its price target on Celgene to $139 from $115 following last week's guidance from the company. Baird reiterated its Outperform rating on Celgene shares. :theflyonthewall.co

  • Biotechnology
    Industry Rating: Outperform January 20, 2015
    Jim Birchenough, M.D.
    BMO Capital Markets Corp

    Meetings Highlight Upside for U.S. Biotech in 2015; Expect Good Year for Gene/Cellular Therapy

    We are providing our 2015 preview for the U.S. Biotech group following an industry conference in San Francisco last week and meetings with roughly 40 leading biotech companies. Overall, we remain bullish on the group and believe that a point of maturity has been reached for the sector where historical growth should be considered over what have consistently been conservative estimates for long-term future growth, and should inform higher multiples, more in line with other growth sectors like Technology.
    A review of U.S. biotech pipelines across market caps suggests multiple transformational opportunities and a crowded event calendar for 2015. Within the large-cap group, CELG is our top pick for 2015 as REVLIMID front-line label expansion for myeloma is expected in Europe, as other indications for REVLIMID start to gain visibility and as 23 separate programs start to generate data.
    Following the proposed acquisition of NPSP by Shire we expect M&A to remain active in 2015 as a driver of mid-cap outperformance and as large pharma continues to look to bolt-on growth. Unpartnered late-stage development or early commercial stage companies are expected to be the biggest focus and we would highlight ICPT and TTPH as most likely to be a focus of large-pharma interest in 2015.
    Overall, technology advance, particularly in areas of gene therapy, cellular therapy, and immuno-oncology (IO) is expected to lead the way in 2015 for smaller-cap names, just as RNA therapeutic companies like ISIS did in 2014, and we would recommend a basket of small-cap development stage companies like AGTC, FATE, HALO, TSRO, and ZIOP in 2015.

    Ziopharm (ZIOP, Outperform)
    Prospects for In vivo activated gene therapy and immuno-oncology
    The BMO Capital Markets Biotech team met with Ziopharm management last week following the transformational tripartite deal with Intrexon and MDAnderson. The clinically validated sleeping beauty (SB) non-viral gene transfer technology offers several advantages over competitor viral vector systems, while Rheoswitch integrates a clinically validated controllable gene expression technology that has clear advantages over competing kill switches. The deployment of industrialized genetic manipulation technologies will allow development of personalized cellular therapies to address tumor heterogeneity. We are impressed by the synergy of technologies that positions ZIOP as a leading competitor for next-generation cellular products including CAR-T. The collaboration has ambitious plans to offer point-of-care products allowing for same-day application of cell-based technology addressing cost and toxicity issues in order to broaden utility and move CAR-T and associated technologies out of the tertiary care treatment center. During the next 12 months, we expect to see evidence that the collaboration is implementing several planned improvements to the technologies as up to five CARs enter the clinic. We also expect more concrete details on development plans to emerge as a new center of excellence in Houston gels.

    Summary

    The BMO Capital Markets U.S. biotech team met with roughly 40 company managements last week during an investor event in San Francisco. Following the meetings we remain optimistic regarding prospects for U.S. biotech stocks in 2015 and expect another year of outperformance.

    With long-term guidance suggesting sustainable large-cap growth through 2020 we believe that the U.S. biotech sector has reached a point of maturity where historical growth should be considered over what has consistently been proven to be conservative guidance and Consensus estimates, and should support continued multiple expansion. CELG is our top large-cap pick for 2015.

    As a new product wave approaches from prominent mid-cap names, we expect M&A to remain a driver of outperformance, with focus on unpartnered drugs, with significant differentiation, in large areas of unmet need. ISIS and ICPT are our top mid-cap picks for 2015, and we would highlight TTPH as a likely focus of large pharma attention in 2015.

    Finally, just as RNA therapeutics led performance in 2014, we expect gene therapy and cellular therapeutic companies, including immuno-oncology (IO) names, to lead performance of small-cap development stage companies in 2015. Top small-cap picks for 2015 include AGTC, FATE, HALO, ZIOP, and TSRO, among others.

    Celgene (CELG, Outperform)
    REVLIMID EU Trends Following Frontline Label Expansion
    Relative to U.S. market trends, REVLIMID penetration in the EU is limited. Market share of ~20% and dosing duration of ~10-12 months is well below the 60%+ share and 18-month treatment duration in the U.S. With a market size 50% greater than in the U.S. we see significant upside for REVLIMID label expansion for frontline use. EU myeloma expert feedback suggests strong conviction in REVLIMID-based maintenance therapy and we expect reacceleration of REVLIMID sales growth on final label approval.
    CELG hosted sell-side analyst reception and provided the following updates.

    The key REVLIMID milestone is U.S./EU approval for newly diagnosed myeloma 1H15 (PDUFA 2/22/15)

    New phase 3 starts for the hematology franchise include sotatercept beta thalassemia and AG-221 for IDH2 mutant AML

    For ABRAXANE, CELG expects and EU decision for NSCLC 1H15, other key milestones for oncology include phase 2 data for TLR8 agonist, VTX-2337 in ovarian cancer.

    For the I&I franchise, following EU approval of OTEZLA for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis Jan 16th, the key milestone is initiation of a phase 3 trial of smad7 anti-sense GED-0301 for Crohn’s disease.

    Also we note filing of an IND for CC-90002, an anti-CD47 MAb for the immuno-oncology franchise.

    Halozyme (HALO, Outperform)
    Prospects for PEGPH20 in pancreatic Ca and other solid tumors
    Following lifting of the clinical hold on PEGPH20, HALO has released initial data suggesting extension of PFS and OS in patients with high HA. While patient exposure is still relatively light we believe that biologic rationale for tumor matrix disruption, prospective identification of the HA marker and positive anti-tumor effects across several trials suggest a true benefit that should be maintained robustly as patient exposure expands. As an add-on to ABRAXANE in pancreatic Ca, we believe there is a possibility to expand into NSCLC and breast Ca and believe that HALO is undervalued relative to that opportunity.
    We met with HALO management in our San Francisco office during the recent investor event.

    Primary focus was on development of PEGPH20 in pancreatic Ca and broadening development in NSCLC and breast Ca.

    Updated data on PEGPH20 in pancreatic Ca following lifting of the clinical hold suggests potential doubling of PFS and OS as compared to historical data for ABRAXANE + GEMZAR in patients with high HA status.

    Expansion of PEGPH20 into other solid tumors with High HA expression was highlighted with NSCLC as a prominent example.

  • Front Line Revlimid approval in a few weeks....CELG earnings call in a couple weeks...GED-031 NEJM publication .."any day now" think Fram Oil Filter commercial....

    Who knows when NEJM Crohns data coming - but at this point near all time highs without it - I am glad we still have it in the "on-deck" circle.

    Still see 130s this quarter.

  • JMP - Celgene announces EU commission approval for Otezla; reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $133 price target based on a P/E multiple methodology

    Celgene announces EU commission approval for Otezla; reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $133 price target based on a P/E multiple methodology.The EU commission approval comes on the heels of the November 2014 CHMP positive opinion and the March 2014 U.S. approval. Mirroring the U.S. label, the Otezla marketing authorization was issued for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in adults who have failed or are not candidates for cyclosporine, methotrexate or psoralen and ultraviolet-A light and for the treatment of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) who have failed or cannot tolerate DMARD therapy. Estimates suggest about 14 million people in the EU and 125 million worldwide suffer from psoriasis, with 80% presenting with plaque psoriasis and 30% of these patients eventually developing PsA. The expected approval should add an incremental boost to Otezla sales this year; we estimate 2015 sales in the EU to hit $34.1M with peak sales to hit $1.15B in 2020. Below we reproduce our Otezla launch tracker for investor perusal.


    We remain bullish on Celgene and forecast total revenues to rise to $20bn+ by 2020. We expect Celgene’s four blockbuster drugs (Revlimid, Abraxane, Otezla, and Pomalyst) to drive revenues in excess of $13.4bn by 2017, and $20bn by 2020, while investments in collaborators like Acceleron, Epizyme, OncoMed, Agios and others ensure growth from 2017 and beyond. We continue to view CELG as our top large-cap pick and reaffirm our estimates and Market Outperform rating.

  • BMO - CAR-T Alliance Is Transformational; Upgrade to Outperform Raising ZIOP price target to $15 target"

    Full report on investor village ZIOP board
    ZIOPHARM Oncology
    (ZIOP-NASDAQ)
    Stock Rating: Outperform↑
    Industry Rating: Outperform
    January 14, 2015

    BMO Capital Markets Corp
    Price (13-Jan) $5.74 52-Week High $6.10
    Target Price $15.00↑ 52-Week Low $2.31
    CAR-T Alliance Is Transformational; Upgrade to Outperform $15 target
    Event
    ZIOP and Intrexon announced a broad exclusive licensing agreement with MD
    Anderson for CAR-T, TCR and NK programs yesterday. ZIOP’s RheoSwitch
    Therapeutic System will be used to control both CAR and cytokine activation in
    T cells or other immune cells, with up to 5 CARs expected to enter the clinic in
    2015 and an off-the-shelf system in 2016. To facilitate rapid development, ZIOP
    will build a base of operations near MD Anderson in Houston. ZIOP and Intrexon
    will pay MD Anderson $100M and commit $15-20M research funding annually
    over the next 3 years. MD Anderson presented updates on 4 ongoing CAR-T
    trials at ASH and outlined plans for platform improvements including changes to
    the CAR and expression of T cell activation cytokines.
    Impact & Analysis
    We are upgrading our rating to Outperform and increasing our price target to
    $15 following yesterday's CAR-T announcement. Following our detailed review of the Immuno-Oncology space we believe that CAR-T technology is validated and potentially broadly applicable to both hematologic malignancy and solid tumors. Profound early results in ALL, NHL and CLL, and most recently
    myeloma have led three companies to plan registration study initiations in 2015.
    While CAR-T success in solid tumors may be more difficult to achieve, ZIOP's
    orally activated RHEO switch could be a game changer in optimizing immune
    response. We believe that involvement of MD Anderson provides both
    credibility and support for development and with a precedent being set for rapid
    transition for phase 1 to registration studies we thin

  • rob_cos rob_cos Jan 9, 2015 12:47 AM Flag

    JPMorgan has had a neutral on CELG since last yr and it doubled since then. No one has been wronger about CELG except Goldman

  • CELG top 2015 biotech pick of BAC,Wells,RBC, JMP, Nomura, Citi, adamfeuerstein jimcramer &Baird - see the reports on investorvillage CELG message board yahoo wont let them fit

  • rob_cos rob_cos Jan 6, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    Can't post links here but if you go to investorvillage CELG message board you will find the link to the Video of RBC Yee positive CELG recommendation - worth a view

  • RBC's Michael Yee on CNBC:"We like Celgene into the (JPM) conference-good guidance & some think longer term guidance.We will come out of conf with a positive run in biotech....GILD, BIIB and CELG good earnings. CAR-T & Gene therapy stocks will ...

    do well - Biotech M&A will increase - pricing non issue when you have pipeline innovation and drug approvals in billions of $

AMGN
159.73-0.19(-0.12%)Jan 26 4:00 PMEST

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