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rob_cos 102 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 7:27 PM Member since: Dec 31, 1997
  • GREAT news - ZIOP short interest only decreased from 18.7 million to 17.6 million after the warrant exercise SO THERE ARE NOW 17.6 SHORT SHARES WITH NO WARRANT HEDGE....Shorts in some trouble here imo....

    Short interest only decreased from 18.7 million to 17.6 million from November 28th to December 15th - as just reported on Bloomberg today

  • We made the following changes to the Equity Core and Equity Growth Portfolios at the close of business on December 23, 2014:
    Equity Growth
    Health Care: We are removing our 3.0% position in Gilead (GILD, $89.48, B-3-9) after our analyst’s downgrade to Underperform. In its place, we established a 3.0% position in Celgene (CELG, $107.04, B-1-9), a profitable biopharmaceutical company that develops and markets therapies for the treatment of hematologic malignancies, solid tumors, and inflammatory conditions. CELG's key growth driver and contributor to the top line is Revlimid for the treatment of multiple myeloma and myelodysplastic syndromes. We anticipate continued strong growth for Revlimid, driven by share gains, longer duration of therapy and label expansions. CELG has several catalysts on the horizon, including the expected approval of Revlimid for multiple myeloma in the front-line setting in both the US and EU (currently approved for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma) and the potential settlement of the ongoing Revlimid patent case with Natco/Actavis. We view a settlement as favorable for CELG if the company concedes 1-3 years of patent life, as it removes a significant overhang on the stock. CELG is one of the highest growth companies among the large-cap biotechs―we expect compounded annual revenue growth of 20% and EPS growth of 28% over the next three years. Further commentary on Celgene may be found in the 2015 Healthcare year ahead, where Celgene is identified as a top pick

  • Baird "Everybody Just Chill. Significant Overreaction CELG, etc....We would be buyers...ESRX ABBV deal read through is thin...significant barriers in oncology..temporary setback-Buyers on weakness.....


    December 24, 2014

    Baird Equity Research

    Healthcare / Life Sciences



    Biotechnology

    Everybody Just Chill



    Remain constructive on biotech, and while we can’t ignore the sentiment overhang, we are hard-pressed to see how ESRX’s most recent salvo against GILD’s HCV franchise constitutes a wholesale, across-the-board challenge to the pricing power enjoyed by meaningfully differentiated, life-saving therapies. Indeed, with NBI correcting 6% the last two days, we see a significant overreaction in shares of ALXN, BIIB, CELG, GILD and REGN.



    Would be buyers of all five large-caps and mid-caps BMRN and VRTX on weakness.



    o Express Scripts: flying like an eagle? More like take the money and run. As one of North America's largest PBMs, ESRX enjoys significant market power. However, ESRX CMO Steve Miller’s recent commentary implying this power will extend to therapeutic categories like MS, rheumatology, oncology, cardiovascular disease and even Alzheimer’s (really?) seems premature at best, reckless at worst. For our part, while we anticipate a longer-lasting GILD overhang, read-through is less straightforward, creating near-term buying opportunities. Three points:



    - Unprecedented GILD/ABBV price war may not be unprecedented, or a price war.

    With ESRX making some noise in respiratory and diabetes this year, this move on HepC does have precedent and, we note, was well telegraphed. Now however, we're also getting mixed messaging about how steep a discount Abbvie is really giving ESRX. Viekira list price was actually higher than most estimates so it’s possible the net price is in-line with pre-approval expectations.



    - Read-through is thin. CELG, REGN, BMRN, and VRTX are down 9%, 8%, 5% and 4%, respectively, the last two days, largely we believe, on Dr. Miller’s commentary. However, in each case, we think this read through is misplaced with significant barriers in oncology; already well-known equivalence for PCSK9s; and long-standing US/ex-US pricing parity among Orphan drugs.



    - Let’s stop a minute and think about ESRX’s motivations here. ESRX makes money by taking a share of the discount they get their clients. Discount rates being equal, they make more money the bigger the sticker price. So while there is an incentive – and opportunity - to create competition in undifferentiated markets, this model has limits since a total collapse serves no one, and undifferentiated markets are pretty uncommon te,in biotech.



    n Bottom line: this too shall pass. Similar to this spring (when Henry Waxman opined on GILD’s Sovaldi pricing), the sector is taking a significant, yet – in our view – temporary step back. Buyers of ALXN, BIIB, CELG, GILD, REGN on weakness.


    n Baird does not provide research coverage for ABBV or ESRX

  • Baird "Everybody Just Chill. Significant Overreaction CELG, etc....We would be buyers...ESRX ABBV deal read through is thin...significant barriers in oncology..temporary setback-Buyers on weakness.....

    December 24, 2014
    Baird Equity Research
    Healthcare / Life Sciences

    Biotechnology
    Everybody Just Chill

    Remain constructive on biotech, and while we can’t ignore the sentiment overhang, we are hard-pressed to see how ESRX’s most recent salvo against GILD’s HCV franchise constitutes a wholesale, across-the-board challenge to the pricing power enjoyed by meaningfully differentiated, life-saving therapies. Indeed, with NBI correcting 6% the last two days, we see a significant overreaction in shares of ALXN, BIIB, CELG, GILD and REGN.

    Would be buyers of all five large-caps and mid-caps BMRN and VRTX on weakness.

    o Express Scripts: flying like an eagle? More like take the money and run. As one of North America's largest PBMs, ESRX enjoys significant market power. However, ESRX CMO Steve Miller’s recent commentary implying this power will extend to therapeutic categories like MS, rheumatology, oncology, cardiovascular disease and even Alzheimer’s (really?) seems premature at best, reckless at worst. For our part, while we anticipate a longer-lasting GILD overhang, read-through is less straightforward, creating near-term buying opportunities. Three points:

    - Unprecedented GILD/ABBV price war may not be unprecedented, or a price war.
    With ESRX making some noise in respiratory and diabetes this year, this move on HepC does have precedent and, we note, was well telegraphed. Now however, we're also getting mixed messaging about how steep a discount Abbvie is really giving ESRX. Viekira list price was actually higher than most estimates so it’s possible the net price is in-line with pre-approval expectations.

    - Read-through is thin. CELG, REGN, BMRN, and VRTX are down 9%, 8%, 5% and 4%, respectively, the last two days, largely we believe, on Dr. Miller’s commentary. However, in each case, we think this read through is misplaced with significant barriers in oncology; already well-known equivalence for PCSK9s; and long-standing US/ex-US pricing parity among Orphan drugs.

    - Let’s stop a minute and think about ESRX’s motivations here. ESRX makes money by taking a share of the discount they get their clients. Discount rates being equal, they make more money the bigger the sticker price. So while there is an incentive – and opportunity - to create competition in undifferentiated markets, this model has limits since a total collapse serves no one, and undifferentiated markets are pretty uncommon te,in biotech.

    n Bottom line: this too shall pass. Similar to this spring (when Henry Waxman opined on GILD’s Sovaldi pricing), the sector is taking a significant, yet – in our view – temporary step back. Buyers of ALXN, BIIB, CELG, GILD, REGN on weakness.

    n Baird does not provide research coverage for ABBV or ESRX

  • rob_cos rob_cos Dec 23, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    • Why we don't think this should be the start of new price wars: Demand for healthcare/ drugs is generally inelastic; in a price war in this context, all the players lose. In the case of ABBV/GILD, there was a window for ABBV to rebate to pick up a slice of the HCV market potentially without triggering broader price wars--this is a result of the short-term use of these therapies plus the heterogeneous market segmentation.

    These dynamics are generally unique to HCV, so a read-through to other settings is somewhat sloppy, we believe.

    • Acute and chronic is a key difference: For payors, it's easy to switch its population without losing the benefit of rebates if use of a drug is short-term, like with HCV (or Neupogen or Neulasta). It's a much different dynamic with chronic use drugs because switching patients is time-consuming and costly. Yet another reason to not read-through much beyond HCV.

    • Wait, biosimilars are going to price at a discount? Some investors are concluding that this update means biosimilar competitors will start pricing their drugs at a discount to claim meaningful share from biosimilars (uh, we didn't think that before yesterday?).

    This extrapolates to the conclusion that companies like AMGN, BIIB, BMRN, ALXN and others are vulnerable to share loss upon biosimilar entry (uh, we didn't think that as well before yesterday?). Of course this has always been the rationale for biosimilar adoption, so it's hard to see why the ABBV/ESRX update changes that dynamic. Yes, biosimilars will price at a discount to achieve favorable formulary standing. But these other situations do not share the same unique features as the HCV market, the dynamics will not be the same.

    • But we aren't fighting the tape: With the strong multiple expansion we saw across the sector in 2H14 and exceptional performance for companies such as CELG, INCY, PCYC and others, we see this retraction as healthy for opening new opportunities. And sometimes more attractive valuations get dragged down with the frothy ones. This feels like a much bigger version of QCOR to us - a story which ended very, very well.

  • Piper Jaffray-A Healthy, But Misguided, Holiday Biotech Meltdown....this should be the start of new price war....Acute and chronic is a key difference

    Piper Jaffray

    I N D U S T R Y N O T E

    D e c e m b e r 2 3 , 2 0 1 4

    Biopharma

    A Healthy, But Misguided, Holiday Biotech Meltdown

    C O N C L U S I O N

    After AbbVie's (ABBV) deal with Express Scripts (ESRX) to partially displace Gilead's (GILD) Harvoni as the preferred HCV option for some patients, the biotech markets are retracting heavily, almost as though the use of discounts for favorable formulary adoption was some surprising new disruptive tool never before recognized. It's premature to speculate what the ESRX/ABBV announcement could have on GILD's HCV franchise, and it's even more premature to believe we're on the cusp of some new industry-wide dynamic. Because this pricing/rebate dynamic existed well before yesterday, it's hard to see how this precedent will actually have any broader impact. That said, we believe a retraction has been due as a result of recent frothiness in many biotech names and rising multiples across the board.

    • Just wait and see if this is the beginning of the end of GILD: While investors are acting as though GILD's HCV franchise is collapsing, it's premature to draw that conclusion. It perhaps reduces the probability of a massive beat in 2015, but the consensus of $15B W/W still seems achievable, and if not GILD can still spend less or repurchase shares to get to $10/share in earnings (our FY17E est is $10.01). GILD's valuation seems increasingly attractive.

    • Why we don't think this should be the start of new price wars: Demand for healthcare/ drugs is generally inelastic; in a price war in this context, all the players lose. In the case of ABBV/GILD, there was a window for ABBV to rebate to pick up a slice of the HCV market potentially without triggering broader price wars--this is a result of the short-term use of these therapies plus the heterogeneous market segmentation.

    Th

  • Cramer says buy Celgene!

    What to Buy in Oil and Biotech?
    By JIM CRAMER | DEC 23, 2014 | 2:36 PM EST | COMMENTS



    s it too early to buy the oils or too late?

    I think we still haven't seen the real stress in the system and we still are reacting only to the bounce in the gross domestic product.

    To me, if you want to buy, you go with total quality. In the service side you buySchlumberger (SLB). In the oil side you buy Royal Dutch (RDS.A) with that terrific dividend. In the MLP space I would buy Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), the dean of the group. And in the natural gas side I would buy Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), but I would be real careful because I have very little hope near term for natural gas. I understand the desire to buy these and said in my previous piece that people are taking the plunge. But if you put on a full position here, you could get hurt on any quick dip in the futures because these stocks are up hugely from their lows.

    I would not pick up any of the ones that are in trouble on their cash flow and need oil to explode back up. I wouldn't be interested in the companies that you hope would get a takeover. And I would wait for EOG (EOG), the best independent, to come in because it has had such a run.

    Why the caution? Because today the gross domestic product is ringing in our ears as something good.

    Tomorrow, with inventories, we might have a high number and the chatter starts all over again. We forget the strong economy and we focus on excess supply.

    Now, how about the other group that is still in freefall -- the biotechs? I like Isis (ISIS) and I like Celgene (CELG) because they have been hammered and they both have products that aren't about to get the Express Scripts (ESRX) treatment. But I think that ESRX has had enough of a run and I would rather own Cigna (CI) or UnitedHealth (UNH). Again, no hurry, but they are down and if we get some slower number we will wish we had bought.

    Oil too high; Biotech not low enough. So, start positions and then wait.

    It's the best way to play them.

  • Unique situation AbbVie has drug that has to be taken 5x's a day in a $10 billion++ market that would not have been adopted widely so they do a deal. Has NOTHING to do with CELG/cancer drug co's without interchangeable competitors..


    except that generalists are selling the sector and shorts hit the BTK and IBB....Capitulation and then rebound soon imo.

  • rob_cos rob_cos Dec 22, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    That ranking is meaningless IMO. Understand everything Markey is saying is coming from RJ Kirk ...who already told you publicly there are "significant transactions underway" for ZIOP cancer indications...Soon

  • rob_cos rob_cos Dec 22, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Ziopharm's valuation led the advance of established public
    immunotherapy companies, as its price rose 40% off a
    December 3rd low. We attribute the gain to the unveiling of a
    novel immunotherapy platform that uses genetically modified stem
    cells to trigger a highly specific immune attack. The company’s
    valuation stood at $493 million at the market’s close last week,
    while that of its partner, Intrexon Corporation, was $2.8 billion.
    Elsewhere, Kite Pharma’s share price increased 30% since
    December 1st as discussions of its CAR T-cell program laid the
    groundwork for a $188 million secondary offering and a valuation
    of $2.1 billion. The share price of Northwest Biotherapeutics,
    which does not have genetically modified cells, rose just 13%
    since December 1st, resulting in a market cap of $357 million.
    Investors may be awaiting data from a pivotal trial, scheduled to
    end in September, of its activated dendritic cells against primary
    brain cancer.

    We look for Ziopharm’s market capitalization to rise
    markedly as the genetically modified cell therapies developed in
    collaboration with Intrexon prove themselves in the clinic. Indeed,
    the valuations of Juno and Kite point to a potential four- to five-fold
    increase in its share price on data from early clinical trials. ZIOP
    shares are on our BUY list with a $12 price target

  • -Griffin "Immunotherapeutics In the Spotlight..We look for Ziopharm’s market capitalization to rise markedly -a potential four to five-fold increase in ZIOP share price on data from early clinical trials. ZIOP - BUY & $12 price target"

    Ziopharm BUY PRICE TARGET $12 Company Update : Biotechnology
    Immunotherapeutics In the Spotlight

    Last week’s IPOs heightened investors’ interest in the
    emerging field of immunotherapeutics. Juno Therapeutics and
    Bellicum Pharmaceuticals became public companies garnering
    valuations of $2.7 billion and $511 million, respectively, at
    the market’s close. Both are among a handful of companies
    developing immunotherapies that are designed to engage the
    patient’s immune system in the fight against cancer.

    ■ Juno received the higher valuation in recognition of
    the success its early clinical trials have had in treating
    hematological malignancies with chimeric antigen receptor
    (CAR) T cells targeting a biomarker called CD19. Preliminary
    results have been remarkable (60% - 100% complete remission
    depending on the malignancy), albeit from relatively small
    numbers of patients (10 - 27).

    ■ Bellicum has three Phase 1/2 studies under way that
    are investigating a T- cell therapy for graft- versus- host
    disease associated with allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell
    transplantation and a dendritic cell treatment for metastatic
    castrate- resistant prostate cancer. The T cells have a genetic
    modification to protect against unwanted toxicities, while the
    dendritic cells include a secondary sensor to enhance target
    selection. Clinical data is due in 2015.

    We look for Ziopharm’s market capitalization to rise
    markedly as the genetically modified cell therapies developed in
    collaboration with Intrexon prove themselves in the clinic. Indeed,
    the valuations of Juno and Kite point to a potential four- to five-fold
    increase in its share price on data from early clinical trials. ZIOP
    shares are on our BUY list with a $12 price target

  • RBC-positive front-line Revlimid EU recommendation - new $1 billion+ indication.We like CELG here for 2015+ based on potential settlement on Revlimid patents and 2020 guidance


    Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ:CELG; USD 116.48)
    Finally positive front-line Revlimid EU recommendation, increasing visible growth

    FIRST GLANCE | COMMENT
    December 19, 2014

    RBC Capital Markets, LLC
    Michael Yee (Analyst)
    John Chung (Associate)

    Rating: Outperform
    Impact:
    Long-overdue front-line myeloma indication gets positive recommendation - increasing visibility on long-term growth...

    First impression
    The EU CHMP board issued a positive recommendation for approval for Revlimid for front-line myeloma use (in transplant ineligible pts) based on the MM-020 study, etc. This is 1) a fundamental positive and consistent with our bullish CELG thesis because Revlimid now has a new $1B+ indication to go after and had zero front-line sales in EU but is doing $1B in US already...this helps the 2017+ growth trajectory and beyond; 2) recommendation seems a bit early and should get formal "approval" in a couple months which is earlier than spring 2015 which most had thought/guided to; 3) removes some near-term uncertainty that it was only downside risk and not much upside for the stock but now the recommendation is formal...

    We note some investors may point to fact that recommendation was for transplant "ineligible" pts and not "full" front-line including transplant eligible. However the indication they got addresses 65-70% of the front-line market and was at least the base case and we are clear that very few investors would think they'd get the full label. The rest of the 30%+ of the market can be addressed through other Phase III studies we are waiting on longer-term follow-up on OS (CALGB study, and IFM study that are not mature yet...).

    We like CELG here for 2015+ based on potential settlement on Revlimid patents and down the line...2020 guidance that gives even more visible growth to investors and

  • Piper predicts two large-cap biotechs could be acquired in 2015 - Biogen (BIIB), Celgene (CELG), BioMarin (BMRN), Pharmacyclics (PCYC), Vertex (VRTX), Alexion (ALXN), Regeneron (REGN) & Incyte (INCY) could be attractive targets for larger pharma names



    Piper predicts two large-cap biotechs could be acquired in 2015


    Joshua Schimmer of Piper Jaffray in his list of potential "surprise" biopharma events for 2015 predicted two large-cap names in the space could be acquired. Schimmer says the list of biotechs with above $10B in market cap continues to grow, and now includes Biogen (BIIB), Celgene (CELG), BioMarin (BMRN), Pharmacyclics (PCYC), Vertex (VRTX), Alexion (ALXN), Regeneron (REGN) and Incyte (INCY). Schimmer believes all of those companies could be attractive targets for larger pharma names. Other potential surprises on the list include bluebird bio (BLUE) curing sickle cell anemia in 2015, the Sanofi (SNY)/MannKind (MNKD) Afrezza launch going well, and failed trials wining FDA approval, starting with BioMarin's recently acquired drisapersen. :theflyonthewall

  • rob_cos rob_cos Dec 11, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Yes this was it - they said next week but it was this wk. Results even better than I thought and because Abraxane is already on the market expect off-label sales in this indication even before specific approval in it.

  • CS - CELG a top pick for 2015 - raising target from $125 to $145..Domain Dominance-3 blockbusters, pipeline and patent settlement will provide additional upside...

    Key picks from our 46 stock coverage universe: Large Cap – Biogen (TP400) – three high-reward catalysts; CELG (TP$145) – continued "domain domination" premium and patent settlement upside. Smid Cap – OVAS (TP $60) – potential paradigm shift in IVF, ATLN (TP SFr135) – Longer term Uptravi potential, CLDN (TP $20) – high risk/higher reward catalyst due in Q1, IRWD (TP $18) – Linzness ramp + pipeline appreciation, PCTC (TP $66) DMD leader + growing pipeline, ESPR (TP $41) – Catalyst rich 2015.

    ■ Target price and recommendation changes: We are making the following key changes to our coverage universe: We are downgrading UTHR to Underperform (from Neutral) while increasing our TP to $120 (from $100). We are also making several target price changes as follows: AMGN $180 (from $160), CELG $145 (from $125), ALXN $200 (from $184), VRTX $130 (from $94) BMRN $95 (from $75), ENTA $55 (from $44), IRWD $18 (from $16), XNPT $10 (from $7), ACHN $12 (from $10), SCMP $10 (from $8) and MVIR'B-SK SEK125 (from SEK115).

    Celgene – Outperform, TP $145 (from $125 previously): We are increasing our TP for CELG to $145 (from $125 previously) and retaining our Outperform recommendation. Our positive outlook for CELG is driven by a combination of strong growth from CELG's current base business combined with its "Domain Domination" and concomitant pipeline. We expect Celgene to continue to post strong growth driven by the recent launch of three blockbuster drugs – Pomalyst, Abraxane and Otezla with a patent settlement for Revlimid providing further potential upside. We also view Celgene as a company that is furthest along the track to achieving domain domination especially in the areas of dominating the science and translating it into efficacious research, deep knowledge of the regulatory pathways and dominating marketing of products. On CELG’s pipeline, we believe that GED-301 in Crohn’s disease could be a potential blockbuster with the potential to change the entire disease paradigm. Our TP of $145 implies a multiple of ~22.5x on our '16 EPS estimate of $6.44, representing a 50% premium to the '16 PE multiple of the S&P500. We believe this premium is warranted due to the 20% top- and bottom-line growth that CELG appears set to deliver from 2014 to 2017.

  • Incredibleg really - Priced even HIGHER then Tues close right before announcment and even with market down almost 300 points , Celgene took $26.5 million which is VERY positive they are the best judge of early biotech talent - look at what happened to their partners AGIO, BLUE and XLRN this past week after ASH data t. AMAZING. $120 ++soon. Very, very soon - shorts in some trouble here - no matter how many pennies per post grunts they send to this board to try and scare people. Laughable. Stick with AGIO

  • Reply to

    pricing for shares $110.75..thats great news

    by vinman2228 Dec 10, 2014 8:49 PM
    rob_cos rob_cos Dec 10, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    Amazing really - HIGHER then yesterdays close right before announced, DESPITE absolute market bloodbath in market. With CELG taking $26.5 million to boot. AMAZING. This is heading to $120 soon. VERY soon

  • Links want post here but if you want link go to AGIO message board on Investor Village but this is right from the first page of AGIO filing....$120 is coming imo...CELG just validated $110+ is still a buy for AGIO and they are considered the best evaluator of talent (HUGE moves in their partners AGIO, XLRN and BLUE this week because of ASH data)

    "CELG wants $26,250,000 of AGIO secondary" - front page of AGIO secondary filing- VERY positive

    Celgene Corporation, or Celgene, an affiliate of two of our existing stockholders and our cancer metabolism strategic alliance partner, has indicated an interest in purchasing an aggregate of up to approximately $26,250,000 of shares of our common stock in this offering at the public offering price. However, because indications of interest are not binding agreements or commitments to purchase, Celgene may determine to purchase fewer shares than they have indicated an interest in purchasing or not to purchase any shares in this offering. In addition, the underwriters could determine to sell fewer shares to Celgene than Celgene indicated an interest in purchasing or not to sell any shares to Celgene. The underwriters will receive the same underwriting discount on any shares purchased by Celgene as they will on any other shares sold to the public in this offering. Any shares sold to Celgene will be subject to the lock-up agreements described under “Underwriting.”

  • P/R not printing....see on yahoo news or investorvillage CELG board

  • rob_cos rob_cos Dec 10, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    The study found a statistically significant and clinically meaningful 9% absolute improvement from 29% to 38% (p=

IOC
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