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robbierasser9az 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 6, 2015 10:05 AM Member since: Jul 30, 2013
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  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jan 6, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    Except for the fact that the CEO gave the guidance when the stock wasl trading at $75. CEO's are roundly punished when they lie, yet punished perhaps as much when they speak the truth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jan 6, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    Everything we have seen with DDD over the past 11 months- every single one of their acquisitions, drop in net profit as top line revenues continue to grow, massive investment in manufacturing lines and capacity in Rock Hill- is consistent with what management told us would happen back in February of 2014. Although (or perhaps because) we are currently at the beginning of inflection in the 3D space, DDD net profit will not be coming back until the end of 2015, early 2016. For most longs,this isn't an issue. For those who don't have the temperament or ability to buy when the stock falls to multi-year lows, this is a problem.

    As to the criticism of DDD's lates acqusiition of BotObjects- Every very large company on the planet has grown either through acquisitions or hiring. DDD does both at the same time. Excluding the service bureau buys, If you look at almost every one of DDD's acqisitions, they have essentially been acqui-hires of small companies staffed by exceptionally intelligent people who have actually invented and patented something. Phenix, BotObjects, Layerwise, Medical Modeling, Simbionix, Cimatron, VisPower, Geomagic, Rapidform, etc, and even the Sugar Lab were all purchased with the intention of both acquiring patents and hiring the best employees on the planet. A higher percentage of DDD's 1388+ employees have actually patented a technology than almost any other comparable market cap company on the planet. DDD pays the most for their employees, but they only get the best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. DDD net income growth would remain low until the end of 2015.

    2. DDD was focusing on growing the top line (revenue) at the expense of the bottome line (net income) in order to expand capacity and technology during a very crucial period in the growth of 3D printing.

    3. DDD would be making more acquisitions that would contribute to top line revenue of at least $1 billion by the end of 2015.

    Summary- everything we have seen up until today is in line with the CEO's statements from 11 months ago. So, it seems as if 3D management cannot win. If they tout a new technology, they're criticized as "hyping" the stock, and yet when they come out with honest guidance two years into the future, as they did 11 months ago, they're either not given the credit for being transparent, or the guidance is ignored entirely.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jan 6, 2015 8:38 AM Flag

    Memory is short, so I though this was an opportune time to repost this.

    Everything we have seen with DDD over the past 11 months- every single one of their acquisitions, drop in net profit as top line revenues continue to grow, massive investment in manufacturing lines and capacity in Rock Hill- is consistent with what management told us would happen back in February of 2014. Although (or perhaps because) we are currently at the beginning of inflection in the 3D space, DDD net profit will not be coming back until the end of 2015, early 2016. For most longs,this isn't an issue. For those who don't have the temperament or ability to buy when the stock falls to multi-year lows, this is a problem.

    As to the criticism of DDD's lates acqusiition of BotObjects- Every very large company on the planet has grown either through acquisitions or hiring. DDD does both at the same time. Excluding the service bureau buys, If you look at almost every one of DDD's acqisitions, they have essentially been acqui-hires of small companies staffed by exceptionally intelligent people who have actually invented and patented something. Phenix, BotObjects, Layerwise, Medical Modeling, Simbionix, Cimatron, VisPower, Geomagic, Rapidform, etc, and even the Sugar Lab were all purchased with the intention of both acquiring patents and hiring the best employees on the planet. A higher percentage of DDD's 1388+ employees have actually patented a technology than almost any other comparable market cap company on the planet. DDD pays the most for their employees, but they only get the best

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jan 6, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    Memory is short, so I though this was an opportune time to repost this.

    Everything we have seen with DDD over the past 11 months- every single one of their acquisitions, drop in net profit as top line revenues continue to grow, massive investment in manufacturing lines and capacity in Rock Hill- is consistent with what management told us would happen back in February of 2014. Although (or perhaps because) we are currently at the beginning of inflection in the 3D space, DDD net profit will not be coming back until the end of 2015, early 2016. For most longs,this isn't an issue. For those who don't have the temperament or ability to buy when the stock falls to multi-year lows, this is a problem.

    As to the criticism of DDD's lates acqusiition of BotObjects- Every very large company on the planet has grown either through acquisitions or hiring. DDD does both at the same time. Excluding the service bureau buys, If you look at almost every one of DDD's acqisitions, they have essentially been acqui-hires of small companies staffed by exceptionally intelligent people who have actually invented and patented something. Phenix, BotObjects, Layerwise, Medical Modeling, Simbionix, Cimatron, VisPower, Geomagic, Rapidform, etc, and even the Sugar Lab were all purchased with the intention of both acquiring patents and hiring the best employees on the planet. A higher percentage of DDD's 1388+ employees have actually patented a technology than almost any other comparable market cap company on the planet. DDD pays the most for their employees, but they only get the best.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jan 2, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    Let me also add, DDD has stated that the last three years were about building a complete thread in additive manufacturing, from conception to the manufacturing floor, and that 2015 will be about fine tuning all of these acquisitions. Are DDD and SSYS guaranteed to dominate the 3-D printing market? No. Do DDD and SSYS have a very good chance of dominating the 3-D printing market? Yes. Although nothing is guaranteed, there are very few stocks that have this much long term potential. These are still small-cap stocks, in a market that has unlimited growth. As long as management doesn't screw up anything in a major way and the technology continues to grow exponentially, these are stocks to hold for the next 5 to 10 years or longer, depending on your time horizon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    new coverage

    by bemore4224 Dec 17, 2014 11:04 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 19, 2014 7:28 AM Flag

    Yes, it's a phenomenal company with a tiny market cap in an industry that's barely scratched the surface of its potential. Just the type of company I like to invest in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm New

    by chrissy35513 Dec 16, 2014 12:13 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 17, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    When I began investing actively 12 years ago, I did tons of research and read just about every investment book out there. At the time I was focused on Chinese Internet and telecom companies- SINA, SOHU, CHM, NTES, TOMO, SNDA and later BIDU. However, there wasn't a lot of knowledge about Chinese funds on the web, so, crazy as it sounds, I got on the yahoo message boards, blocked the irrational and illogical idiots, fact checked what information I could, read news articles in translation, and bought. I did very well over the next ten years. The Yahoo boards are generally a lot more heavily trafficked than they were and informative stuff is harder to come by, but I actually benefitted from these boards, but yeah, I had to weed out 9 tons of trash for every grain of wisdom.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm New

    by chrissy35513 Dec 16, 2014 12:13 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 17, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    The Motley Fool Investment Guide explains terms such as PE, PEG, Market Cap, Cash vs Debt, Shorting, Options, Trading vs Investing in language meant for people who have no familiarization with investments. Also, read any book by Jon Bogle, Peter Lynch, Warren Buffet.

    If you have a long term time horizon, I'd buy DDD, but I'd also buy an equal amount of SSYS (their direct competitor) if you're afraid of putting all of your money in only one place. Good luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I'm New

    by chrissy35513 Dec 16, 2014 12:13 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 17, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    Bear in mind, I'm a long term investor (began investing passively in 1985 when I was still a teenager and began investing actively in 2002 -doing tons of research before buying what I believe are the best small cap stocks with the greatest growth potentials). Withouth going into details, I'm happy with my performance.

    Also, I first acquired DDD in the middle of 2013 at around $40 dollars a share, bought some more at around $55, bought more at $40, and then recently tripled my position at $30. So, I'm currently underwater. However, due to my strategy, I'm okay with that, as I believe this stock has TREMENDOUS reward potential, even given the risks of competition, mismanagement, and a possible (although not likely) Enron scenario. In short, even if I lost every penny on this stock due to a nightmare scenario, I'd sleep well. So, for what it's worth, here's some advice.

    Before buying a stock- or even getting involved in investing- do these things:

    1. As yourself what your time frame is- will you most likely need the money next month, next year, in five years, or in 40 years?
    2. What's your risk tolerance- if you invest and see one stock drop 50% during the year (even if it has a good balance sheet and excellent potential) will you freak out and not be able to sleep at night, or will you remain calm and make decisions based on logic and mental clarity?
    3. Have you researched the company completely- read the balance sheets, read news about the company and its competitors? Get on the website and read everything. I mean, EVERYTHING.

    Here is the one book that will give you just about everything you need to know about investing in very, very simple terms- The Motley Fool Investment Guide, by Tom and David Gardner. Although I haven't been impressed by everything these two founders of the eponymous website have written, they wrote this book around 20 years ago from their perspectives as recent English Literature and Humanities majors. More below.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HP...a concern for 3D printing

    by dc8flyer1993 Dec 11, 2014 10:31 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 11, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    The article completely misquoted Avi. Avi has consistently stated that HP's entry into the market in 2016 not only helps validate what DDD and SSYS and the other player have been doing, but will benefit the industry as a whole. He has never either bashed HP nor expressed any particular concern about HP being a "threat" to DDD or any other company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 10, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Excellent article- I read the 3dprint website all the time, and the Fab Grade Printer, at 50x current printing speeds, appears to be an industry game changer. With 4 billion drops a minute, I'm curious to see how fast and effective this technology is 18 months from now when HP comes out with their printer, which they claim prints at 10X current speeds. I'm not underestimating what HP can do, but I agree with the basic premise that competition is generally good for any industry. And, HP entering this race in 2016 will be good for both DDD and SSYS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD is an absolute steal at this price

    by robbierasser9az Dec 9, 2014 11:30 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 10, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    Good question, and one which goes back to my basic strategy as an investor, not a trader. As I said, I've been investing since 1985, although I didn't become an active investor (lots of research searching for micro and small caps with enormous potential) until the the very early 2000's. If I see a market cap I like based on where I think this market cap will be 5 or 10 years ahead, then I buy. I'm not all that concerned with finding a bottom. I do enough due diligence to support my family, live a fun life, and sleep without anxiety. That's all that matters to me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD is an absolute steal at this price

    by robbierasser9az Dec 9, 2014 11:30 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 10, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    At the moment they might. SSYS has excellent medical and dental technology. And, since I own both companies, I wouldn't mind SSYS building on that and taking market share from 3D Systems.

    With the acquisition of Simbionix and Medical Modeling, 3D Systems is building an end to end printer and software portfolio that trains the surgeons, prints the part, and guides the surgery. I see more vision behind what DDD is trying to do, but yeah, over time they won't get everything right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD is an absolute steal at this price

    by robbierasser9az Dec 9, 2014 11:30 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 9, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    No, they both have different specialties. SSYS is, in my opinion, killing DDD on the consumer end, with Makerbot. On the other hand, DDD does metal and is building a better medical portfolio.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD is an absolute steal at this price

    by robbierasser9az Dec 9, 2014 11:30 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 9, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Just to add (as I ran out of space above). DDD realizes that many manufacturers are slow to adopt new technology, and with this recent acquisition, DDD has the ability to work with both traditional manufacturers AND companies interested in additive manufacturing. DDD's new software portfolio can enable traditional manufacturers to stay where they are (and companies that produce high volume stadium seats probably should) and can help companies that make specialized parts gradually transition over to 3D printing wherever possible, economical, or necessary.

    I believe that after Q4 earnings in February, when DDD gives guidance through 2016, the stock will take off again. Regardless of how many acquisitions DDD has made over the past 3 years that HAVEN'T paid off, demand for DDD's products are through the roof (as seen by recent production issues and backlog) and this demand should only accelerate in 2015 and beyond.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az by robbierasser9az Dec 9, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Let me first of all say that I'm an investor with a long term time frame, so any sentiment disclosure I give is based on a 5-10 year perspective. to give an example- I bought my first stock- GE- in 1985 when I was still a teenager, and I've never sold it. There are many times- 1989, 2001, and 2007, when I could have sold and made a bundle buying GE at a discount, but I didn't. And, I'm fine with that decision.

    I've accumulated all my DDD (hold an equal amount of SSYS) at between today's price of $31, and $55, so if I sold now I'd take a loss. However, not only do I have no desire to sell DDD or SSYS, but I doubled down this morning and now own 3 times as much DDD as I did yesterday. So, with flat net profits, HPQ coming out with some very interesting (perhaps game changing) technology in 18 months, and cheaper printers coming out of China, why am I still so optimistic about this company?

    Without getting into the details of where I believe the Phenix, Layerwise, Xerox research team, and Medical Modeling acquisitions are taking DDD in their race for the holy grail of 3D printing, I'd like to focus on a small company called GibbbCAM (yup, just get on the website and check it out). GibbsCAM is a subsidiary of Cimatron, the Israeli software company that DDD just acquired. What's interesting about this acquisition isn't just all the 3D printing software that DDD now has in its portfolio, but all the TRADITIONAL manufacturing software that DDD now has as well. Cimatron and GibbsCAM are leaders in software for Axix Milling, Mold and Die, High Speed Machining, Mold Design, and Electrode Design among others. They are currently active in 40 countries worldwide and-with DDD's ownership- now offer complete idea-to-manufacturing floor-to-finished product solutions for anyone interesting in manufacturing just about anything.

    DDD is positioning itself as a global manufacturing leader- this should be clear after Q4 CC in Feb, and the stock price will follow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    See Form 4 out in AH...Insider buying $DDD

    by stoxnbondz Dec 1, 2014 4:59 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Dec 1, 2014 8:37 PM Flag

    As did Kevin Moore.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Nov 24, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    I agree. The acquisition was under 100 million, gives DDD an enormous software portfolio, and will be immediately accretive to revenue and net income in the first quarter of 2015

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • DDD's rapid-fire acquisition pace begs the question of whether Avi Reichental is downright crazy, or crazy like a fox. DDD's critics believe the former and point to this year's disappointing net income growth and production problems, even as demand has expanded and revenue continues to increase significantly. They also point out that it's very difficult to integrate corporate cultures, and 50 acquisitions in around 4 years, from all over the US, Europe, and South America creates an enormous amount of emotional upheaval among employees. There is more than a grain of truth to what these critics are saying, especially about the difficulty of being acquired, having co-workers let go because of redundancy, and then perhaps being "encouraged' to work 80 hours a week in order to trump the competition in this breakneck race to achieve the holy grail of additive manufacturing.

    I believe that Avi is five steps ahead of the game for two basic reasons. First, DDD's biggest acquisition- Phenix- has turned out to be a game changer for both the company and the industry. In fact, without the Phenix acquisition, we would be looking at significantly lower year over year revenue and a non-existent backlog. Sure, we wouldn't have the production problems, but we wouldn't have the money or the metal technology either. The acquisitions of Layerwise, Medical Modeling and others have been excellent as well. So, one can criticise many individual acquisitions DDD has made as being unnecessary. However, DDD was falling short in both metal and medical- the fastest growing segments of the industry. And they are now leading in both segments.

    Second, DDD's is developing a global, end to end 3D printing portfolio, and the latest acquisition of Cimatron only supports this strategy. As this industry develops, many analysts argue that just as much money will be made from software as hardware (analogous to the iphone or Android app stores). And DDD is making sure to cover its bases.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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