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robbierasser9az 28 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 14, 2014 7:52 AM Member since: Jul 30, 2013
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  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Oct 14, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    There have always been corrections and drops in the market, and this won't change. However, There are a few major difference between now and 2000. First, back then, there were hundreds of dotcom.companies with zero cash, zero profits and market caps in the billions. Today, while one can argue that the market has gone up a bit too far too fast, PEs are pretty reasonable and the equivalent high flying companies have more cash than they know what to do with.

    Secondly- back then, much of our economic engine was built on the growth of the Internet, which- while changing the face of the planet- was only actually profitable for a handful of companies. Today, Internet profits are real and established, and our economic engine is being built on everything from cell phones and tablets, to software, to natural gas and oil, to medical technology to retail, etc, etc. etc.

    The market goes up and down, but it goes up over time. This is tha nature of capitalism.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Left holding the bag

    by dddbagholder Oct 6, 2014 8:45 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Oct 6, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Okay, so you bought during the hype phase, which happens to lots of investors. So, what's your time frame? If you need the money before Q3 earnings, you should sell and write off the loss. If you can afford to hold for the next two, three, or five years or longer, you really have nothing to worry about. If you cannot sleep at night and your investment's affecting your health and sanity, watch what DDD presents at this year's Euromold in November and then wait for Q4 earnings in January and then make an informed decision.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where is Ogewen?

    by da_watchmaner Oct 2, 2014 8:08 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Oct 3, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    Ogewen has stated that he's a long term investor interested in holding DDD and other 3D printing companies for years, not months.

    I cannot speak for Ogewen, but I'll go out on a limb and say that I believe DDD will be up to $100 by January after Euromold, Q3 and Q4 earnings, and guidance up to the end of 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Oct 1, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    I wanted to bump this post up to remind people- especially newbies- that DDD stock is acting exactly as it should based on Avi's very transparent guidance on February 25 of this year. The stock should remain down until after the Euromold conference and as we head towards the beginning of 2015- next 2 or 3 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 23, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Piper Jaffray states that DDD "might have won" an unexpectedly huge deal. We'll see if this pans out. I'm bullish regardless, but this should be interesting IF true.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 17, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    Yeah, putting Bre Pettis back in the lab is a smart move. He's a tinkerer at heart and will probably still be out there in the Makerbot stores giving demonstrations and doing media interviews from time to time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 17, 2014 7:53 AM Flag

    5 years is not long in investing terms, and those who hold will be glad they did. Even so, DDD won't be flat during those 5 years; rather, the stock price will likely climb every year far quicker than the S&P as investors anticipate 3D printing technology moving toward inflection in mass manufacturing. Let's not forget- organic or no, DDD is growing their top line revenue between 30% and 40% every year through a combination of printers and materials, and this trend is slated to quicken exponentially.

    I'm not sure 3D printing will ever be used to bang out pie tins or ball point pens or that type of extremely low quality, low cost, mass economy-of-scale manufacturing. However, for high quality automotive and aerospace parts, and modular cell phones, DDD is already there. And, even many of those manufacturers for whom traditional injection molding is 1000X more cost effective are purchasing 3D printers for retooling.

    Every six months will bring us more positive surprises in both technology and top line revenue, even amid some underwhelming net profit figures for the next several years. And I believe that by this year's Euromold Conference, even the most skeptical investors will realize that DDD and SSYS are going nowhere but up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For those who follow both the news and the technological advances that DDD has been making, there have been two striking developments over the past year.

    The first is Project Ara, where with help from the Google team, DDD has figured out a system to print multiple objects 5000% faster than they could just eight months ago.

    The second has been the explosion in demand for metal printers, with which DDD has barely been able to keep pace. Now, the Layerwise acquisition, barely a year later, allows for not just Selective Laser Sintering (Phenix), but Selective Layer Melting, which together can produce a full metal product in multiple alloys with a density of 99.8%, and a structure that is both substantially stronger AND lighter than an injection molded counterpart.

    So, if DDD has made such profound improvements in speed, precision, and product density, strength and weight in only one year, where will this technology be one, two or five years from now?

    Given that the global manufacturing market is currently worth upwards of $12 trillion dollars, if DDD grabbed only 1% of that market five years from now, that would give them a revenue of $120 billion. Do the math- DDD and SSYS have the best LONG TERM growth potentials of perhaps any two companies trading on any exchange on the planet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GrabCad

    by straighthippie Sep 16, 2014 10:49 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 16, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    Yes, excellent acquisition! Essentially, Stratasys just acquired a community of 1.5 million engineers who collaborate in an open source way to create better solutions and products. The best analogy I can think of would be the Google Play store for Android Apps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az by robbierasser9az Sep 12, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    I only follow this stock from time to time now, but a major mistake was made months ago when Chen opted not to put financial muscle behind creative director Feng Du, sold the company, and infused only $10 million into the bargain. The new CEO subsequently fired Feng Du, fired more that half of KU6 employees, and as of June had little more than $4 million left.

    Two and a half months later, I can only imagine that KU6 must be down to their last $2 million or so, and they're not attracting either the traffic (traffic has plummeted to historic lows) or the advertising revenue that they expected. A shame for a company that just one year ago had so much potential.

  • Reply to

    I see that ddd does a lot of acquisitions...

    by pasdechat2003 Sep 9, 2014 2:32 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 10, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    An acquisition in technology is really about both buying new product AND hiring those exceptionally capable people who created this product. For example, 3D systems could go the the University of Texas or South Carolina engineering departments and hire undergraduates who may or may not pan out OR they could acquire companiesa for a premium along with employees who have already proven experience and brilliance in the 3D printing space. So, I see every DDD acquisition as a hiring spree that both expands DDD's reach and picks off the most talented employees in the country- or in the case of DDD, the planet.

    DDD's greatest acquisition was Phenix Systems, a French company that dominated in printing metal. Since the acquisition fourteen months ago, Phenix is now fully integrated into the DDD ecosystem and their printers are selling so fast that DDD has a $30 Million backlog.

    DDD's recent acquisition- Layerwise (a Belgian company with proprietary technology that uses laser technology to print metal with denser and less porous builds- will contribute dramatically to DDD's metal portfolio as DDD continues towards its goal of building entire manufacturing platforms.

    I won't get into the medical acquisitions right now, but I think investors will be very, very pleased at what comes out at the Euromold conference in November.

    I see the acquisition of The Sugarlab as somewhat less compelling, but looking way ahead, there's probably a bigger opportunity in 3D printed food than I think. Who knows...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az by robbierasser9az Sep 6, 2014 2:04 AM Flag

    After the statement about the stock being a bit high, Musk stated, "If you care about the long-term Tesla, I think the stock is a good price. If you look at the short term, it is less clear."

    If you read the actual quote, Musk was NOT bashing either the company or the stock price. Rather, he was reiterating his long term committment to Tesla and stating that stock holders who hold long term will be rewarded. As far as short term valuation of the company is concerned, Musk was stating what we all know: current stock price is way out of whack to earnings and it will likely take a few years for earnings to catch up to the stock valuation.

    I don't own Tesla stock, but I have enormous respect for the company, CEO and product. If I were a stock holder, I'd relax, hold for the next five to ten years, and probably wind up very happy with the results.

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 5, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    I respectfully disagree. I've owned both DDD and SSYS for the past year, and I see both companies carving out and fortifying their respective niches in this market.

    DDD is clearly focusing on two things. The first is gradually taking progressively larger bitese out of the 12 trillion dollar global manufacturing market- of which Project Ara and the acquisition of Phenix (metal) are very early precursers. And the second is attempting to dominate the 3D medical and dental market- here, DDD and SSYS overlap. In the short term, DDD appears to have ceded the consumer market to Stratasys (Makerbot).

    SSYS is currently dominating the consumer and prosumer (hobbyist) market through Makerbot, which is quickly becoming ubiquitous under Bre Pettis. Second, with their investments in printing for polymers, plastics, nylons, and varioius epoxys, Stratasys is betting big on the manufacturing of non metal industrials- sneakers, clothing, tires, aircraft and automobile interiors, etc.

    There's tons of money to be make from both models, but SSYS probably won't catch up to DDD in metal anytime soon, and DDD won't catch up to SSYS in the consumer market anytime soon. Essentially SSYS will eventually be the go to place for consumer and prosumer 3D printing, and while DDD will be setting up manufacturing facillities worldwide for production specifically using metals.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What did Musk say?

    by muchomacho42 Sep 5, 2014 10:36 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 5, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    I agree that the market valuation will probably remain flat or perhaps go down over the next five years or so. My point is that those who bought the stock recently will likely do just fine if they have a very long term time horizon- 5 years plus. I believe that Tesla is and will continue to be a very disruptive, innovative company. Obviously, this isn't a stock for anyone planning on making a killing short tem.

  • Reply to

    What did Musk say?

    by muchomacho42 Sep 5, 2014 10:36 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Sep 5, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    I've never owned TSLA so I don't have a dog in this hunt, but the company puts out a phenomenal product and there are few if any stormclouds on the horizon. Musk stated that stock is very high, which is true from a current and short (1-4 year) term future PE perspective. However, anyone in this stock for the next five to ten years will probably do pretty well, even if they bought at the highs.

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 29, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    I'm pretty bad at predicting the market in any given month, but I'll go out on a limb here and say DDD will resume its uptrend and hit $90 by the end of December on anticipation of strong company guidance to the end of 2017 for top line revenue growth. Net profit growth will be flat for at least 16 months, so that's the only thing keeping DDD from soaring right now. However, almost all of recent acquisitions are expected to become immediately accretive to company earnings, and the company is going through a paradigm shift in technology for the manufacturing and medical sectors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 19, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    I'm long on SSYS as well, but you cannot tout their current success without looking at the Makerbot and Objet acquisitions. Let's not forget that an acquisition officially becomes "organic" after a year or so, so by around this time next year all of DDD's current aquisitions will count as "organic."

    I agree that the majority of investors won't feel comfortable until DDD either has a few outstanding quarters, or has one very strong quarter and gives excellent guidance. However, I believe anyone with a long-term time horizon who buys DDD now and holds will be very happy by this time next year and beyond.

    That said, I still believe DDD will hit $90 by the end of December or early January based on sales growth and fresh revenue projections. I believe we will double that to $200 by 2016-2017.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 18, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Agree 100%. And, for anyone who isn't aware of it and wonders where management is, all of DDD's presentations (including the Canaccord Genuity and Needham) are easily accessable on the company website. The company gives clear direction and guidance on a regular basis to both institutional and retail investors, and to the general public.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. DDD net income growth would remain low until the end of 2015.

    2. DDD was focusing on growing the top line (revenue) at the expense of the bottome line (net income) in order to expand capacity and technology during a very crucial period in the growth of 3D printing.

    3. DDD would be making more acquisitions that would contribute to top line revenue of at least $1 billion by the end of 2015.

    Summary- everything we have seen up until today is in line with the CEO's statements from six months ago. So, it seems as if 3D management cannot win. If they tout a new technology, they're criticized as "hyping" the stock, and yet when they come out with honest guidance two years into the future, as they did six months ago, they're either not given the credit for being transparent, or the guidance is ignored entirely.

    To longs- the CEO has told you NOT to expect substantial net profit growth for the next 18 months, so don't be disappointed when the next conference call show increased revenue growth but stagnant net income growth, as management has already guided. If you routinely log onto the DDD website, read in detail about all their acquisitions, and follow the growth in 3D printing, you'll see that DDD is doing just fine, but the process isn't going to be as fast as many would like.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD direction

    by ogewen Aug 8, 2014 11:23 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 12, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    This technology isn't magic, but neither is traditional injection molding, which is currently a $13 trillion dollar business.

    Look, if DDD printers only printed trinkets and sold to toy and jewelry stores, that would be one thing. However, the fact that 90% of their revenue comes from the industrial side, metal printers are their fastest growing products, and they're currently working on mass producing modular smartphones with Google's project ARA demonstrates that DDD is, in fact, on the cutting edge of creating breakthrough products.

    The problem is that most investors want 3D printing inflection to happen next week, which is impossible. We're getting close, but we're not there yet.

    If you detach yourself from the stock for a moment and simply read today's news about what companies like DDD and SSYS are doing and then go back to articles written three years ago about these same companies, you'll come away with a profound respect for where this sector has come in a very short amount of time, and where it's likely headed over the next few years and beyond.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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