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3D Systems Corporation Message Board

robbierasser9az 57 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 36 minutes ago Member since: Jul 30, 2013
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  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az 2 hours 36 minutes ago Flag

    I'm pretty bad at predicting the market in any given month, but I'll go out on a limb here and say DDD will resume its uptrend and hit $90 by the end of December on anticipation of strong company guidance to the end of 2017 for top line revenue growth. Net profit growth will be flat for at least 16 months, so that's the only thing keeping DDD from soaring right now. However, almost all of recent acquisitions are expected to become immediately accretive to company earnings, and the company is going through a paradigm shift in technology for the manufacturing and medical sectors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 19, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    I'm long on SSYS as well, but you cannot tout their current success without looking at the Makerbot and Objet acquisitions. Let's not forget that an acquisition officially becomes "organic" after a year or so, so by around this time next year all of DDD's current aquisitions will count as "organic."

    I agree that the majority of investors won't feel comfortable until DDD either has a few outstanding quarters, or has one very strong quarter and gives excellent guidance. However, I believe anyone with a long-term time horizon who buys DDD now and holds will be very happy by this time next year and beyond.

    That said, I still believe DDD will hit $90 by the end of December or early January based on sales growth and fresh revenue projections. I believe we will double that to $200 by 2016-2017.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 18, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Agree 100%. And, for anyone who isn't aware of it and wonders where management is, all of DDD's presentations (including the Canaccord Genuity and Needham) are easily accessable on the company website. The company gives clear direction and guidance on a regular basis to both institutional and retail investors, and to the general public.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1. DDD net income growth would remain low until the end of 2015.

    2. DDD was focusing on growing the top line (revenue) at the expense of the bottome line (net income) in order to expand capacity and technology during a very crucial period in the growth of 3D printing.

    3. DDD would be making more acquisitions that would contribute to top line revenue of at least $1 billion by the end of 2015.

    Summary- everything we have seen up until today is in line with the CEO's statements from six months ago. So, it seems as if 3D management cannot win. If they tout a new technology, they're criticized as "hyping" the stock, and yet when they come out with honest guidance two years into the future, as they did six months ago, they're either not given the credit for being transparent, or the guidance is ignored entirely.

    To longs- the CEO has told you NOT to expect substantial net profit growth for the next 18 months, so don't be disappointed when the next conference call show increased revenue growth but stagnant net income growth, as management has already guided. If you routinely log onto the DDD website, read in detail about all their acquisitions, and follow the growth in 3D printing, you'll see that DDD is doing just fine, but the process isn't going to be as fast as many would like.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD direction

    by ogewen Aug 8, 2014 11:23 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 12, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    This technology isn't magic, but neither is traditional injection molding, which is currently a $13 trillion dollar business.

    Look, if DDD printers only printed trinkets and sold to toy and jewelry stores, that would be one thing. However, the fact that 90% of their revenue comes from the industrial side, metal printers are their fastest growing products, and they're currently working on mass producing modular smartphones with Google's project ARA demonstrates that DDD is, in fact, on the cutting edge of creating breakthrough products.

    The problem is that most investors want 3D printing inflection to happen next week, which is impossible. We're getting close, but we're not there yet.

    If you detach yourself from the stock for a moment and simply read today's news about what companies like DDD and SSYS are doing and then go back to articles written three years ago about these same companies, you'll come away with a profound respect for where this sector has come in a very short amount of time, and where it's likely headed over the next few years and beyond.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DDD direction

    by ogewen Aug 8, 2014 11:23 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 11, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    Ogwen,

    We haven't heard much from Avi recently, and I agree that along with steering a company, one of a CEO's other main obligations is to communicate regularly with his co-owners (business partners) about the direction he's taking, and why he's taking it.

    As I've stated before, I see acquisitions in the 3D printing space as being different from, say, Pepsi acquiring Brazil's V Water. Whereas in the latter example, Pepsi is acquiring pure product and distribution, in the 3D space an acquisition is really about both buying new product AND hiring those exceptionally capable people who created this product. Look at it this way: 3D systems could go the the University of Texas or South Carolina engineering departments and hire undergraduates who may or may not pan out OR they could acquire a company for a premium along with employees who have already proven experience and brilliance in the 3D printing space. So, I see every DDD acquisition as a hiring spree that both expands DDD's reach and picks off the most talented employees in the country.

    Another example- Google's had a great algorithm and was certainly growing as a pure desktop search company, although I wonder where they'd be now if they hadn't acquired Android, Picasa and Youtube ten years ago.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Patience, patience, patience........

    by robbierasser9az Aug 8, 2014 11:05 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 8, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    If you are currently under 30 ( much younger than you think) and you hold DDD and SSYS, you will be a very wealthy still youthful man or woman in your 40s ( my age). If you love to daytrade, I would recommend Chinese Internet stocks. 3-D printing stocks are legacy stocks that will continue growing in revenue for the next 100 years ( as long as the balance sheets remain healthy, and the CEOs remain vigilant).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az by robbierasser9az Aug 8, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Just a few short months ago, analysts were saying that Stratasys was a strong sell. Now, that company has upped its yearly revenue forecast and is currently firing on all cylinders in both the manufacturing and consumer sectors.

    The same will be true with 3-D systems. Organic growth is slower than Stratasys, but still very strong compared to 90% of the companies out there. And, as soon as 3-D systems fully integrates its medical and laser acquisitions this company will be unstoppable. Instead of listening to the hype, those telling you to buy and sell in any given week, read the news related to 3-D technology, read the website, read about the competition, regularly read the company balance sheet, and you will see that this company is healthy, innovative, disruptive, and moving forward in all the right ways.

    I don't generally crosstalk stocks, but I'm long on SSYS as well as DDD. If you are a novice investor, and you are wondering which one to buy, by 50% of each and hold for the next five years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I chose SSYS over DDD a long time ago

    by adkinscu Aug 7, 2014 10:58 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 7, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    I've held both for almost a year, and even though SSYS is currently flying through the roof, I believe investors in 3-D systems will be just as happy six months from now. The insider sales don't worry me one iota. Let's not forget, that these insiders have held the stock for many years, and some of them are not young men anymore. If Chuck Hull or Avi wants to buy a cabin in South West Montana to do some flyfishing, more power to them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az by robbierasser9az Aug 7, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    As I said before, hold this stock long term and you won't be disappointed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    robbier and ogwen

    by chairman_mao_said Aug 1, 2014 4:58 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Aug 2, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    I'm long on DDD and perfectly happy holding 5 or more years. Nothing that came out during earnings was a surprise that wasn't already mentioned in February. The long-term growth trajectory is intact, the technology is growing in spades, and DDD is poised to become a phenomenal legacy stock. I can't speak for day traders, but longs will be happy one year from now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 31, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Agree 100%. Unfortunately, the average investor sees one year as a lifetime. Personally, I'm pleased with the results, but my time frame for this sector is 10 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I dont get it

    by ninemerica8 Jul 27, 2014 6:23 PM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 28, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    Agree With you 100%, as my time frame for this sector is years, not months, weeks, or days. However, the average person sees even one year as a lifetime, and doesn't have the temperament to hold when they see their stock drop 25%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    just trading games here?

    by fabrics_is_forever Jul 17, 2014 8:28 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 17, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    You're exactly right. Even if only 5% of the United States population had a 3D printer at home, that would mean 15 million installed 3D printers. Again, I believe the big money will be in manufacturing, but the growth rate for 3D printing over the past five years doesn't lie, and there's no sign that this growth rate will slow down anytime soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    just trading games here?

    by fabrics_is_forever Jul 17, 2014 8:28 AM
    robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 17, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Home 3D printing is not now, and will likely never be where the big money is in this industry. The global manufacturing industry is current somewhere around $12 trillion, and this number is slated to grow dramatically over the next 10 years. Obviously, 3D printing will not be used to print bottle caps, or small cheap plastic widgets. However, for prosthetics, airline engine brackets, fuel nozzles, automotive parts, factory molds, prototypes, architectural models, and modular electronics this technology is in very, very high demand. Discussing home 3-D printing is almost a moot point. The real question is, what percentage of the global manufacturing industry will involve 3-D printing the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 16, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Running shoes, toys for my children, photographs of my family that are printed in full color, down to one micro layer of detail, dinner plates, forks, knives, spoons - the list goes on… My point is, we simply do not know yet how this technology will be used, but judging from the growth rates we are now seeing year-over-year, in aerospace, the automobile industry, toys, hearing aids, clothing, smartphones, circuit boards,- there is no doubt that every year people find ways of using 3-D printing that we haven't even thought about it. And, for the time being, 3D systems and Stratasys do not need home 3D printing in order to continue having tremendous year over year growth rates.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 16, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Okay, first of all, home 3D isn't a fad ; it simply hasn't hit inflection yet. Even the CEO of Makerbot admits that inflection- a 3-D printer in every home- is likely four years away. So, at the moment, 90% of 3D system profits are coming from the industrial side , and industrial use printers- particularly metal printers- are currently flying off the shelves to the point where 3D systems has somewhere around a $25 million backlog. It's for this very reason that DDD must grow the top line and ramp up production over the next several years.

    Some examples of how 3D printing is being received can be seen in DDD's partnerships with Hasbro, Ford, Hershey, and Google, particularly with Google's project Ara, where 3D systems has developed an assembly line for manufacturing smart phones that is currently 50 times faster than the " analysts" thought possible six months ago. I could go on and on for 20 pages, but if you look at what I've written and project ahead two, three, or five years, you begin to get a sense of where this company and technology is headed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 16, 2014 4:54 AM Flag

    Top line growth! Substantial net income growth is still a year and a half away. If the company continues to integrate acquisitions as well as they have been doing, we'll see $100 by January 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • robbierasser9az robbierasser9az Jul 9, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    I'm experienced enough to know my strengths and weaknesses. My strength is that I do tons of research before purchasing a stock, and hold an average of 3-5 years or more. And, my stocks almost always vastly outperform the market over time. But even then occasionally I get it wrong.

    My weakness is that I'm very bad at predicting whether a stock will go up or down on any given day. This is why I- like a few others on this board- am an investor, not a trader. I trade in and out occasionally, but only with volatile micro caps and only with a tiny percentage of my portfolio.

    A good thing to do if you're not an experienced investor is to pay a lot of attention to the news and innovation about any company you own, and pay little to no attention to the "noise" about the company- people screaming "buy," and "sell," - and to the daily stock fluxuations.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • However, DDD fundamentals remain rock-solid: the balance sheet is healthy, the backlog for printers and services is growing, and the technology jumps a generation every six months. Hold this stock long term and you won't be disappointed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

DDD
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