Billy, don't forget you have contango instead of backwardazation that plays a role also. It won't matter that much to me because I won't be able to hold on that long anyway. This year my DGAZ will be gone by 5.00 as I don't see it recovering to even 10 this year and will split by year end IMO. These ETF's are designed to head to zero and DGAZ has been severely bruised this winter.
I'm holding a small position of DGAZ sub $3 but I see 4.25 NG as time to switch. To many variables on both sides waiting for something to ignite the others momentum. Robust injections coming quick will favor the bears. More weather abnormalities and weak injections run NG to $5 quickly IMO. Will see what happens and being patient holding whichever side of NG you are on has never been more critical than now. Your time frame is prob a little wishful thinking but if it happened I would welcome it.
Your not getting your info from that unreliable NG bull Powerburn are you? The dude can't even keep his website updated much less accurate. NG goes to 4 by May 1 but no lower until the view becomes clearer on refilling the tanks. Anyone going long in the near term is making a very risky bet IMO. Once the first injection hits the books Thursday the downtrend begins.
Powerburn is about as reliable forecasting as he is keeping his website updated. He spent all that time upgrading so he wouldn't have to manage as much and now it hardly keeps up. Last update last Thursday, and you going to trust his predicted and supposedly updated storage numbers. I know he is trying to help but he also causes novices to lose there shorts.
I sure hope this cold has an impact as I want to add a whole lot more to my short position. It seems big weather variances is all NG moves up on anymore.
And yet we think we have the ability to be a huge exporter. If it comes at a risk to our supply in the United States I am not for it at all, high energy costs will destroy our countries growth.
Billy, you must have nerves of steel to stay long. I have thought about it all week but think the only thing that can spike NG short term is a bullish stg. number today of 200 or better. I have decided to only perpare for the scenario of a bullish report by loading up DGAZ buy orders from 3.20 down to 2.80. I hope for both us I can add to my short position today.
This trade has been a lame duck past two weeks. Maybe the expected high withdraw on Thursday will crank it back up some. GL
The accuweather maps don't quite agree so will see what happens. As we know spring weather can be even harder to predict. I personally want gas to make another run so I can complete my short buying.
How do you report or put on ignore? I could really clean up my view if I knew how.
I won't take off points for spelling. I don't think my gains are 300% but this is really only my second year of trading NG with U and D and I have learned a whole lot more about it. Last year I was lucky to break even. This year I have learned to carry these for a lot shorter time span and have done well. Do I get all the gains, no but I don't become a bag holder either. I think NG will make another run but I don't think it gets to 5 this time of year even with stg., there will be a lot of resistance on any move up. I set a target price to buy and sell and stick with it, no emotion, no hard feelings if I don't get it all (greed). This is it what works for me trading 3X the widow maker. There are folks that get there #$%$ handed to them in these. I have moved over a million $ in trades on these this winter season to earn just shy of 100k. Skill+luck+timing+repeat+$$
As far as NG has fallen you have to believe there will be a recovery. 4 down days and they save it for Fri to run it up. I'm happy if they do since I'm in cash after closing D, I want D back under 3 for another run up. Billy, what's your target price on U?
I know the feeling. I don't sleep well when I hold either one DGAZ or UGAZ They can be addicting due to their fast pace and I am a gambler.
Billy, I wasn't serious about inventories and I believe it will be a trump card if we do in fact go below the 1TCF like expected. I much prefer playing with UGAZ but I just don't have the guts to dive in yet. GL to you and only risk=reward. If I hadn't had such good luck this year I would be doing the same, just don't want to chance giving it back. I will however play with D again if and when it goes sub 3.
Is the scenario still in play that if Mar futures are higher than Apr. when contract rolls today it puts DGAZ in backwardation? It was said to have happend last month on 1/29 when D lost .50 because of this same effect. I don't see the contracts closing the gap so if this is true you did the smart thing by selling today. The reverse effect would be on UGAZ tomorrow which would help Billy out. I also closed my 20k $2.80 shares today just in case, and if this don't happen I do believe NG has a little more air left in it.
Last year it was a 6 week cold weather event that caused the rally after a mild winter. Believe me I remember because I went short at the wrong time. It seems weather is all that moves NG anymore, storage not a concern. I closed my positions until contract roll to see if D goes on sale. GL
I think the gap gets shortened by the 26th but if it's wide on the 25th I'm all over U also. I am also a small investor but I have access to a lot of data from friends that builds a strong case on the bear side also. Read up on bentek latest article that talks about the upcoming production forecast. On the polar event it will be a player but it's old news now, when does it sell of in lieu of the contract expire. There are no weather abnormalities planned after the mini polar next week other than some maybes on March colder. I think your theory is to obvious and you need to be prepared for a pull back, and yes we will be under 5 soon. Citi is a pumper and prob positioned long and helping own cause. I guess we will all see if the market is going to give us some easy money next week with the U series. But long term it will be just like last spring when weather spiked price temporarily, but this year stg deficit keeps it above 4 unless something else changes.
You are comparing stg back to years before fracking, it's all about the weather not stg deficit. If the cold next week wasn't something to feed the higher move up what would of happened to NG just based on stg deficit. Wait until the polar event is here and not nearly as extreme as P1&2 then what's next beside deficit. Answer spring. This will be why we plunge as quickly as next week early along with the fact it moved up way to fast. If you don't start looking at both sides closer you will mislead folks. I am not a long bear stuck, I am just trying to not get fooled by the hype like others are. I won't deny you have made some good calls on this run but don't forget natty has another side which we all know is the ability to fall like a rock. GL
I agree with your strategy of scaling in to D and I am doing the same. My position is small now and avg PPS is 2.92. I wouldn't have a position at all yet but there is a possible scenario that WS takes gas down next week early bc there is nothing but low stg hype after the mini polar event. I say mini because of small effect in SE, 1 day with 30's at night and still 60's and 70's highs all week. If the manipulation does continue it just means increasing position to make more money. The nat gas dude on this board is a pumper and must work for WS, he is setting the bait for bull trap.