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Mattel, Inc. Message Board

robinfamily1818 74 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Jan 1, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Star Wars already priced in. DIS down from here.

    by warrman4 Nov 23, 2015 12:39 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 6 hours ago Flag

    There is a Forbes article stating that the SW will do 150 to 180 he first weekend in North America. It is very logical and reasoned. But, in my opinion it is wrong, and SW will do twice those amounts.

    But this is why SW is NOT priced in yet. There is just a lot of noise out there all over the place. Even after the number roll in, I don't think anyone will really know the true effect until earnings comes out - then the tie ins with toys and gaming will become evident.

    And, by the way, the Forbes writer, despite these initial numbers that he predicts, also believe that SW will have nice legs and wrap up an nice number.

  • Reply to

    Star Wars already priced in. DIS down from here.

    by warrman4 Nov 23, 2015 12:39 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 15 hours ago Flag

    Yes, it is priced in - but is it at $1.5 billion (which for any other movie would be a big hit), or $2 billion, or $2.5 billion, or $3 billion. I saw one recent comment that Star Wars was all set to hit $200 million (domestic) in the month of December which will be a record fro a December release - it will do $200 million by Saturday night of December 19th!!! My point is that we won't know what SW will do until the end of January, and then we really won’t know because it opens in China on January 29th.

    I think that we are going to have a blowout quarter. Analyst are around $1.42. But this doesn’t adjust (I believe) for the fact that the 4th quarter of last fiscal year sales of Star Wars merchandise doesn’t get credited until this quarter due to some accounting rule that prevents such sales until the movie is released.

    And then I would tell you that the quarter doesn’t end until after the New Year’s weekend – adding all the advertising for NCAA football playoffs into this quarter. And also add in the movie sales (we may be into the 3rd weekend of SW, but that may still account for $75 million). And add in very good results for consumer sales and a really good gross (I think a $300 million domestic first weekend translates into $600 million easily by the end of this quarter). I think you might see $1.75.

    I also add this – Disney is buying back a lot of its shares – that alone might add 5 cents.

    Nothing is priced into this stock until we get our earnings in Feb, 2016

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 22, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    I echo the question of the other reply, what does sold out mean. And you say that its sold out for two weeks so that they can't go until after Christmas, but Christmas is only one week after the opening.

    I think anecdotal evidence is worthwhile. But more specific numbers are necessary.

    Having $50 million of tickets sold a month in advance is solid numbers. And I understand that some tickets are for the two weeks after the first weekend, which bodes well. I saw one analysis that suggested that if SW only plays to 65% capacity that it would do over $290 million in the first weekend. I think that $300 million is quite doable. And I think we might have $150 million in tickets sold by the 16th of December.

    I was looking at the movie slates for January and there really doesn't seem to be much on store - that might just mean that SW will have very nice legs.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 21, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    I think 750 is very doable, as inside out has done over 850 (and it's still gleaning some sales).

    And every Pixar movie has at least one parent, so don't play up that angle.

  • Reply to

    Disney Price Target Dec. 31, 2016

    by jp_jim Nov 21, 2015 6:46 AM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 21, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    I think you will see a high somewhere between 150 - 160 for the year. But at year's end, I think it will be about 140, maybe 145. This is a very hard prediction.

  • Reply to

    price predictions

    by bignutz_82 Nov 20, 2015 4:28 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 20, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    Where did you see that figure?

    Personally, I believe that it will take a little while before profit appears. But I'm just speculating.

    I've alway maintained that, since Iger was going to leave this year, Iger wouldn't leave unless it was on a high point. This would a 150 during 2016 - not in January,but maybe in June or July, or maybe later in the year as Iger's not leaving now.

    I think that 150 in January or February is too soon - yes, this quarter is going to be a blow out quarter, but ESPN is going to drag them down - more paranoia than realty. It's just a realty, not a true reflection of the company.

    I've maintained that it will approach 125 by the end of the year, but, until Disney shows everyone how well it's doing, it won't bump above that until the next earnings announcement. And some time next year it will approach 150.

    But Iger wouldn't agree to stick around unless he was very very confident that things would continue. That could mean 250 in 2018. And even more thereafter. And that's the real story.

  • Reply to

    After this ugly summer/fall...

    by dustyonexx Nov 18, 2015 7:05 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 20, 2015 7:51 AM Flag

    I don't think I can be characterized as a "doubter". But I think you are a little too optimistic. $3.75 billion is just too much. I had thought that $3 billion was possible, but, after Avengers 2 failed to break $1.5 billion, I downgraded to $2.5 as my most optimistic view.

    And 150 by the end of December is not there. Even if SW did $3.75 billion, we be able to see that numberbe come a possibility until the end of January.

    Its not that I'm not optimistic. I saw one report that said that analysts think that SW might break $200 million domestic by the end of the year (as an excellent result) - it could do $200 million by the end of Saturday December 19th!!!!!! I think that $300 million is very possible for the first weekend - add $25 million for each Monday - Thursday for the next two weeks (school will be off, and the kids need somewhere to go), add $100 million for the next two weekends, and you have $600 million. Then add overseas, including China, and watch out. But you won't convince anyone until the quarterly results come out in February. 150 then? Maybe, but that too might be too optimistic. I think we will see 125 as we approach the earnings report in Feb., and then a nice bounce to it and maybe over it.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 19, 2015 7:34 AM Flag

    It should, and it is.

    It seems to be demonstrating some nice "legs". It has about $62.5 million as of Tuesday, domestic, and with, hopefully good results this weekend and a long thanksgiving weekend, maybe we might hit $75 million by December 1st - maybe $80 million by the end of the year - I read that if it does well with the Academy awards that it might glean another $10 million.

    But the overseas openings are barely rolled out. On November 26th, they begin their last big push with European openings. It may play very nicely there. I think they will wind up with as much as $150 million worldwide gross.

    And, I repeat, that when Star Wars comes out, Disney may have already grossed $1 billion in box office sales. Antman's overseas sales in October (including China) is at least $125 million, and maybe more. Bridge of Spies will gross at least $125 million. Add at least $50 million for inside out (it had a China opening in October and other sales). And the Good Dinosaur will be a traditional Pixar winner with eventually $750 million. Watch out.

  • Reply to


    by manmoose1 Nov 17, 2015 10:09 AM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 17, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    This does seem to be a spike without any real news, at least so far. It was meandering around 24 for the beginning of the session and then shot up. Was there an upgrade? A buyout seem a little far fetched because this is an old school stock without much excitement in the background, and who would buy it out? - a group wanting to take it private? Doesn't really seem logical. Disney might be interested in buying a toy company so that they can make, market, and sell all the toys, but they get pretty nice royalties/license fees, so that they are satisfied with that - I would add that the star wars and marvel licenses have a ways to go with Hasbro.

    There has been some news about a good holiday season. And maybe there has been some real news about sales of mattel products, such as barbies. Star War toys are active, but Mattel has a very small slice of that.

  • robinfamily1818 by robinfamily1818 Nov 17, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    I see that some theaters are showing all 6 Star War Movies plus the new one and charging $60 for the combined tickets. Does anyone know how these numbers will feed into the reported grosses - will they be divided and applied to all 7, or to just The Force Awakens. This may help the reported gross for The Force Awakens.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 16, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    As optimistic as I am, I don't understand where you are getting you 13 - 15 pe. If they were to make $7 a share this year (and I believe that a $6.50 is really a very optimistic amount), then you have a pe of just over 15 as we speak. I think about $6.30 is an optimistic amount.

    But you go with what you believe.

  • Reply to

    Disny France

    by boreasgm Nov 14, 2015 9:39 AM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 14, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    Our first and primary concern must be with the victims and their families. Please stay focussed and honorable.

    Disney will take a hit in the short run. Disney France will be closed (just as Orlando on 9/11), it will reopen, and things will return to normal. Security will be increased on all parks.

    I have said the only thing that will derail Disney is a worldwide crisis. This is approaching one, but the humanity of the vast majority of all true members of the human race will unite and overcome the adversity.

    Again, our thoughts and prayers (and support) are extended to those who have suffered this cowardly crime.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 12, 2015 7:45 AM Flag

    This is a very interesting debate. First, the market has some rise in interest rates priced in already. In fact, when the Fed did not raise interest rates in September, the market fell - fell because some believed that this indicated a concern that the economy is weak. Conversely, a raise in interest rates may indicate that the economy is doing well, and the market may jump - there may be a collective sigh of relief that the economy is finally returning to "normal". Of course, increasing interest rates may indicate a flow from equities to bond markets, which will reduce stock prices. DOES ANYONE REALLY KNOW????? Perhaps there is some FanDuels or Draft Kings bet we can make because, let's be clear, the stock market is a game of skill.

    The biggest problem with a rise in interest rates is that the dollar will increase, and other currencies will fall. This will, effectively, reduce the proceeds from overseas sales. For example, a Star Wars overseas gross of $1.5 billion could shrink of $1.4 billion. But Disney may have "hedged" by buying some type of options on the Euro or other currencies (the sole true use for such products, at least in my opinion).

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 11, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    Disney's not working with the NFL, Iger, personally, is working on it. And he's working with the Charges and the Raiders who (may) want to move there and build a joint stadium.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 11, 2015 9:38 AM Flag

    I believe that, if Joss Whedon had done the film he wanted to do, that it would have been better received. He had about 3 1/2 hours of film that he had to cut down. And they just couldn't cut it down completely - they had to leave some in for future lines such as the Thor/pool scene in, when it didn't really make sense for this movie but perhaps in future movies. They might have been better off either cutting more, or making it into 2 movies (the latter is my preference).

    They definitely left some money on the table. But $1.4 billion isn't bad, particularly considering that the strong dollar cut down on receipts and that the Saturday sporting events cut down a little on the first weekend. And Disney learned some lessons on the Avengers sequel - do it really really right.

  • Reply to

    When do we break $122

    by craaplgate90314 Nov 7, 2015 1:42 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 10, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    I think you'll have to wait awhile. There is just an element of caution, countered by excitement over star wars. I think that we may see some movement up based upon solid results from movies – primarily the Good Dinosaur, but also the left overs from Inside Out, Ant-Man, and Bridge of Spies. If Star Wars gets good reviews (and I think it will), and begins to produce outrageous numbers (and I think it will), that will push it to, at least, the edge of new highs – but there will be caution restraining it. When Disney comes out with earnings in February, I think that will be a catalyst for a real jump and movement – remember what they said at the last cc – consumer sales of Star Wars merchandize are pushed from the last quarter (remember Force Friday in Sepember) to this quarter due to accounting rules – the college bowl games on New Years Day/Weekend are pushed into this quarter rather than the next (and what about the weekend movies reciepts?). Extraordinary results for Star Wars and the preceding could easily add 30+ cents to earnings (although causing headwinds for the next quarter). $1.75 earnings blowout will move this stock, just like the earnings report in Feb. 2015.

  • Reply to

    My price target is $173 by end of 2016.

    by godemperorofdoom Nov 9, 2015 5:57 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 9, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    I appreciate your enthusiasm. But I think you're a tad too high.

    I think 150 is possible, and then 160 could be seen, but this is just too much a reach, and I will tell you why.

    First, cord cutting concerns will be a continued burden.

    Second, I think 1.75 the first quarter is possible, and about 1.50/1.60 in the second quarter (we need to see how much Star Wars can carry over into the new year). Even with a steady ESPN sector (no given), we need to see rapid improvements in all other sectors - something I just don't think will be quite that good. If my numbers come true for the first two quarters (which are way over analysts), and we do another 1.50 for the last two quarters (again, way over analysts), that would give you something around 6.25 for the year. At 20 pe ration, that is only about 125. At 25 pe, that would give you about 150. And, again, cord cutting concerns will just keep a drag on the numbers.

    We do have a real nice slate of movies, but that can only help so much. And we do have Shaghai Disney, but that is really going to take a couple of years to produce real cash flow. But, when Mr. Iger retires in 2018, I do think you will see 200, and possibly 250.

  • Reply to

    The Good Dinosaur

    by ganggreen77 Nov 6, 2015 9:03 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 8, 2015 8:27 PM Flag

    Disney had delayed this movie because it was not satisfied with what it was looking like. This is either going to be a wonderful hit or a so so middling movie. I trust Disney and Pixar.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 8, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    netflex is going to do well whether Disney participates or not. Disney might as well make money. What if Netflex sells an ESPN product for $50 per month to 50 million people. That's $2.5 billion a month. or $30 billion a year. Not bad.

  • Reply to

    My apology I was wrong on DIS @ $115.75

    by carolyn_novice Nov 6, 2015 11:32 AM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Nov 6, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    Good luck. Keep on posting on Disney. You provide us with a different perspective.

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