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Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. Message Board

robinfamily1818 123 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 30, 2015 7:42 AM Member since: Jan 1, 2004
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  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 30, 2015 7:42 AM Flag

    I don't really know why. Last year, they had a lot on their plate coming through. They had Frozen exploding - this year they have no overwhelming blockbusters - yes, Big Hero 6 is a nice hit, and Into the Woods has done nicely, but nothing to make up for the Frozen hit. Maybe the SEC network will help. Maybe the Frozen merchandise.

    The only reason for a real surprise is that we have an extra week this year (last year's fiscal ended a little early). And I have a sneaky proposition that Disney delayed some revenue from the 4th quarter into this year's first and the reverse with some expenses. The Revenues from the NCAA playoff and Superbowl are in this quarter.

    I think that we might be in for a rough ride for a couple of months. If Cinderella is a real blockbuster (and Disney seems to be taking out all stops by have nice advertising tie ins and a Frozen short before the movie), that might start a nice rise. But I think that mid April with Avengers will get this company off to a nice boom.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 28, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Us longs always look for the optimistic angle.

    The former CEO, when cautioning on the earnings reports earlier this year not to be concerned, said that the first two quarters are like spring training, and the end of the year is what counts.

    He was right - it does count. And he struck out badly. I don't know what he was doing the last three years.

  • Reply to

    700 days since a correction in this Stock.

    by popebenedictxviii Jan 27, 2015 11:28 AM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 9:12 PM Flag

    Not true. It dropped from about 95 to 80 in October.

    Of course you'll pay 65. I'll pay 65. But neither you nor I will ever be able to buy it at 65.

  • Reply to

    Will the new "Star Wars" be a laff fest?

    by ex.goldbug Jan 27, 2015 2:31 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 8:27 PM Flag

    you have writers who are going to make a wonderful movie. it's not going to be another star wars 1.

  • Reply to

    Two under appreciated announcements

    by robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 12:55 AM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    We didn't have an overseas market that we have now. China is very big. Not to mention other markets.

    And, if you go to Box Office Mojo, Star Wars did domestically $460 million, which (according to Box Office Mojo) translates to just under $1,5 billion today. If you add in the worldwide (you have given us), that translates into over $2 billion. Now that original amount may include re-releases, but those are awesome numbers. I think you will be pleasantly surprised.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    The US parks have more than enough business. US tourists are flocking with the lower oil prices and the stabilizing economy.

    Maybe the Europeans will go to the Euro Disney instead - it needs the business. And Hong Kong Disney and soon Shanghai disney will have their own tourists.

  • Reply to

    Two under appreciated announcements

    by robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 12:55 AM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Usually I am conservative (or I like to think that way). But all (or at least quite a few) of the analysts are consistently saying that Disney is over priced. Over priced when its traditional pe is about 25 (according to one poster), and its just over 20 now, and has a couple of real blockbusters in the near future.

    And Star Wars spans all the generations. I remember a nephew, after leaving a friends house, and turning to his father and saying that "Did you know that Darth Vader is Luke Skywalker's father?". And then a few years later, my father, who finally saw one of the episode, turned to me and said "Is Darth Vader really Luke Skywalker's father?". Pre teens will see this movie. Teens will see it. millenniums will see it. Young parents. Older parents. Grand parents. Everyone. And think about China. $2 billion is a given. And I really think you will be surprised. By the turn of the new year, (after only 10 days or so of US distribution), 1.5 billion will be approached worldwide (depending on the overseas openings). If Star Wars I could do over $1 billion over 15 years ago, inflation would nearly double that amount. And Star Wars 7 will have the right story - Disney will make sure of that (it has already delayed the opening).

  • robinfamily1818 by robinfamily1818 Jan 27, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    Two recent events/announcements.

    First, Mission Impossible 5 has announced that it is moving away from its end of 2016 opening. This clears the calendar for Star Wars. Not that much was going to hold back Star Wars, but this really provides Star Wars with no competition for a few weeks. I have speculated that $3 billion gross is possible. It really is possible.

    Second, the Koch brothers have said that they will spend $900 billion in the 2016 election. That is about double of what they spent earlier. A fair amount is going to be television advertising. And who has television advertising? ABC, ESPN? Add another $100 million to Disney's bottom line for 2016/2017. You will see at least 125 in a year from now.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 26, 2015 8:56 PM Flag

    Keep posting. Maybe you can get this stock down to 92. Maybe if the "slowdown" in theme parks really takes hold you can see 91.

    If you see anything under 90, don't be greedy and buy. If anything in the mid 80's, find what you can to buy. And if it hits 80, mortgage everything you can. Disney might fluctuate a little, but in mid April, when the Avengers 2 approaches its May US opening (and I believe it may open earlier overseas), this stock is going to plow through 100. And all bets are off when Star Wars opens.

  • Reply to

    Earnings before taxes 1.45 --Dividend 1.52

    by tinipupinni Jan 26, 2015 2:14 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 26, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Yes, I think you're right. The dividend will be cut. This is a very big hit on earnings. They can't sustain the dividends on these earnings.

    The CEO who has been cut did a disservice to shareholders. He was able to push profits higher in his first couple of years, which actually gives me concerns - usually a new CEO will take some drastic action that will cut earnings in the first year or two, and then show long term gains - he/she can take chances initially, that will payoff in the long run. Taking the cheap money first will hurt in the long term. He should have known better.

    This company really hasn't had a good ceo for some time.

  • robinfamily1818 by robinfamily1818 Jan 21, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    Surprised that we haven't seen the fleet report yet. But last year, they released in on Jan 23. We should see it by Friday or Monday of next week. Any later, I would be worried that it's bad news.

  • Reply to

    NPD Reports 2014 toy sales up 4%

    by cd_vision Jan 20, 2015 9:34 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 21, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    I don't know the answer to your question, but I also understand that the reason for the increase is the sale of Frozen merchandise. Although Mattel has another year of a Frozen license (and Disney Princesses), it ends this year. Hopefully, they have replacements for these items (it may be that the Frozen frenzy is over by the end of this year, but that's a little chancy) Let's hope for the longs that Mattel is executing a good game plan.

  • Reply to

    No matter the Quality of the Food....

    by porchoggie75 Jan 14, 2015 10:04 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 20, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    McDonald's, for many years, has been able to deliver fair food quickly at decent prices. They have stayed the same, and their up beat advertising was a nice fit for many years. But their food is nothing really special.

    Wendy's is selling quality items, in innovative formats, in higher quality atmospheres. McDonald's will fit in in a pinch. Wendy's provides more of a meal. And Wendy's is getting credit and momentum out of their product.

    By the way, often when I go to Wendy's the staff is really up beat, happy, and quick with suggestions. One manager came by the person filling my order, and added some more frosty to top it off - he didn't have to do it - but I appreciated it, and am more likely to come back.

    I don't know how Wendy's is going to do this quarter. And I think there is a little disappointment in order. but in the long run, I think it'll do nicely.

  • Reply to

    New high this week

    by accurateinaccuracy Jan 19, 2015 6:29 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 20, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    As strong as I am on this stock, we are hitting headwinds with a difficult stretch before us. Headwinds as the analysts are downgrading the industry (they don't appreciate media and entertainment companies), and a difficult stretch because there is little to move this stock up until the end of April. Earnings will come out, but absent a 25% surprise, we won't see much (I do think we might see a 10% surprise, but that's not enough). No other real news as "Cinderella" and the other movies coming out are not potential blockbuster surprises like Frozen. But come the end of April, with Avengers 2 (I think it opens overseas first), we may well see a $2 billion box office that will tell the stock market that Disney has created a brand that is assured of making money on every movie it does (something that no other studio can tell you).

    We will have some volatility for the next few months - hopefully no less than 90, and I doubt it can break 100 - but after May 1, all bets are off.

  • Reply to

    rig count just increased...

    by jimmy_vandenbroeck Jan 16, 2015 12:19 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 17, 2015 7:50 AM Flag

    The fleet status should be out soon on their web cite. I don't see it now, but it's usually put out this time of the month. They've delayed slightly to issue it with the quarterly report, but that (actually the annual report) isn't due until February, so I would expect it no later than Wednesday.

    We will see if you are right then. An increase in rigs, even one, would be very nice news in this environment.

  • Reply to

    Anyone looking at Federal Mogul?

    by jpaulgettytoo Jan 14, 2015 2:34 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 17, 2015 7:38 AM Flag

    "This message board sure is dead"

    You think???

    Stock hits a new high, does over two million in trades (and average is over 1 million), and it gets two posts.

    But, as long as it goes up, I don't care. I think we could be over 25 if earnings are good.

  • robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 16, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    It's very interesting that you say that disney's pe has always been about 25. If true, then the comments of others that disney is over priced is poorly placed - poorly placed because, at 25 pe now, that would give you a price of nearly 110. and if disney makes $5 in the coming year (which I think is very likely), that means 125 by the year end. And when the star wars money comes in, I think that 150 is likely, if not more.

    Roger Iger was going to retire in 2016. Seeing the stock at 25, when it was probably around, if not less, than 25 when he took over, would have been a nice high point to drop out. But now he's looking at 2018. I think 150 in 2017 is very likely, at near 200 the following year is in the cards. I may be very optimistic, but disney is a wonderful stock.

  • Reply to

    I don't get it

    by ghetto_trash Jan 14, 2015 2:30 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 16, 2015 10:47 AM Flag

    You certainly have a point. But Western Union made a mistake - they were in the communications industry. But they acted like they were the communications industry. They were not. Then came telephone, then came cells, then came the internet, and now we have texting and twitter. Companies need to change.

    And disney is a little hesitant. But they are moving along. And they have one advantage. No one is going to replace their parks. They are high quality, and they are an experience (I believe) can't be replaced. Yes, someone said that you might be able to sit in your home and have the same experience, but I kind of doubt it. And you will always need new content. And ESPN provides real time leisure that can't be replace, and only enhanced.

    Just my take. Disney will only crash if the world crashes, and then the last thing you will worry about is the price of disney.

  • Reply to

    I don't get it

    by ghetto_trash Jan 14, 2015 2:30 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 15, 2015 9:12 PM Flag

    I don't think it is "known" - if it was known, people would be criticizing this stock, and it would be 20 points higher. I think "people" don't think much of Avengers or Star Wars. I think they don't understand that having two Pixar movies mean 750 million each. I don't really think they understand that a lot of Frozen merchandise has been sold. And I don't think they understand what is happening at espn. And they think nothing is happening in Shanghai.

    And remember this - 8 weeks ago you could have picked up disney for 80, and have a 20 percent profit (add in that little dividend). That was "known", but everyone was running.

  • Reply to

    I don't get it

    by ghetto_trash Jan 14, 2015 2:30 PM
    robinfamily1818 robinfamily1818 Jan 15, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    People are buying it because: (i) SEC network is going to produce results in this last quarter; (ii) the NCAA Playoffs is going to produce a lot of money that they didn't have last year; (iii) Frozen consumer sales this holiday season are big; (iv) Avengers 2 is coming in May - that's a $2 billion gross; (v) two pixar movies this year (last year none); (vi) Shanghai disney opens in December; (vii) Star Wars opens in December - that's another $3 billion.

    A year from now, you still won't get it - and disney will be at $125. And in a couple of years later, maybe double that - and you still won't get it.

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