I read today that Zootopia still has a release scheduled for Turkey - maybe only $1 or $2 million, but it will help it cross $1 billion. And last weekend in Japan was a 7% jump from the prior weekend (it was originally reported as a 2% gain) - which is two weekends in a row of an increase - a nice accomplishment this late at the levels its pushing out. Maybe $100 million box office is possible in Japan (my optimism speaking).
But Captain America is following recent Marvel movies trends - it is running consistently 5 - 10 % behind Avengers Age of Ultron. I keep on hoping that it will display some legs, but it keeps on failing. But there is nothing wrong with $425 million domestic and $1.25 billion worldwide. In fact, Disney will have the three top grossing movies for the year after this weekend. And, after Finding Dory, it will have the top 4 (if X-Men doesn't threaten).
She would have to be very careful and excuse herself from the discussions. As such an integral part of FB, that might be a problem.
On the other hand, her experience in this area is, perhaps, the reason that Disney's board decided to go in a different direction from hiring Staggs as the next CEO. In fact, Ms. Sandberg has been mentioned as a candidate for Disney's CEO.
ESPN is certainly hanging heavy over Disney's stock price - investors are afraid that cable is going the way of landlines.
But ESPN is still making money. And it is exploring alternatives. It is not sitting on its laurels.
But the real issue is Disney growing. From 1995 to around 2013 ESPN grew greatly. From a small portion of a segment of the media (it was almost a throw away in the Capital Cities purchase), it has grown exponentially - and its not (although I think it is not shrinking). But the other segments (movies, parks, consumer [I would add video gaming but that's been folded in consumer as licensing only]) are beginning to grow in very envious position. This fiscal year's box office is going to be between $8 - 10 billion - and I don't think, 5 years ago it was even half of that. Next year could be even better (the first quarter has Dr. Strange, Moana, and Star Wars Rogue One - They could easily have $3 billion, 50% more than last year for the same quarter.
Parks and Consumer segments are increasing as well. I think you'll see $7.50 a share in profits next fiscal year, and the last year of this decade could easily beat $10 a share
People used to rent their land lines. I'm sure there are still a few. But there aren't many landlines either.
But ESPN is moving to a variety of platforms that will pay off. And cable does have its benefits. And back in the dark ages, I tried to stay away from cable - but with a growing family and a variety of demands, cable just made more sense.
Guardians of the Galaxy is a wonderful movie - Disney was thrilled with its results, and has placed it next year in the coveted early May slot. And Disney was very happy with Ant-Man - so much so that they immediately ordered a sequel, placing it when another Marvel movie was scheduled. I thought Ant-Man was a little short, perhaps rushed, but still a nice addition to the Marvel Universe.
And I agree that these movies are a little busy. Guardians had a few characters, but it seemed more under control. But I will not disagree with Disney/Marvel about Spiderman. I am a little surprised that IronMan is going to be part of the next Spider Man movie, with the addition of a Spider Man feature in the credits of CACW.
You were pretty much on line with Jungle Book. But it is at $857 million, so your note that it will limp to $900 - 910 million before it gets to South Korea may well be correct too. I would suggest that it wll be at $1 billion by the time it hits Japan, which will give it a shot of moving up more based on how well it does there.
And Zootopia did 2% better this weekend in Japan, helping it to move to nearly $981 (another nice call). But doing so nicely in Japan means that it has some room to run there - is another $50 million from Japan possible? This may depend on how much competition it faces from other movies.
It does seem that Captain America is hitting a wall now. Maybe it can break $1.25 billion. It seems that Avengers (I) has made a ceiling that it hard to beat for the next couple of years. But I bet that Disney is very happy with this box office.
Although I haven't seen the numbers, I don't believe the decline is subs is "accelerating" . They may still have some loses, but I believe it is leveling off. But, then again, I'm usually too optimistic.
There is an article that nearly 1 million people have visited the "Disney Town" that surrounds/is adjacent to Shanghai Disney. I believe it takes some time for Disney to turn its parks into profit makers. But maybe that will be different for Shanghai Disney.
I wanted to add one other thing to why I was so optimistic. Until Finding Dory, there really isn't any quality children movies or movies in this fashion. Yes we have Angry Birds which is doing relatively well this weekend, but, if you want your kids to go to the movies to see something really quality, you have JB or Zootopia. That is why I was hoping to see real nice numbers for awhile. And many are surprised how well JB and Zootopia have done for such an extended time. That will get Zootopia over $1 billion, and push JB nicely over $1 billion.
CACW seems to be loosing steam at this time. I was hoping that this movie, which many (including myself) said was a very quality movie, would have nicer legs. At this time, I think it will do about $1.25 billion to $1.4 billion, and probably closer to the former. Similarly, domestically, it will break $400 million, but it will be lucky to hit $425 million when all is over. It just isn't showing any more legs than Avengers AoU.
Every movie studio should have these problems.
You and I have butted heads on Jungle Book before. And I agree that I am very optimistic. But it is has been in first or second place in the U.S. Box Office every week (it will not this weekend), is a very good movie, and keeps on earning money. It could approach $15 million in the US this weekend, and will have an extra day next. And it is still gleaning nice funds from overseas. Remember, some people go to the movies during the week (I think last weekend's final figures were at least $50 million more than the week prior).
That being said, I am overly optimistic. But it could easily be over 900 million by the time it hits South Korea (Hong Kong will give it a bump). Korea and Japan are potentially big markets. Jungle Book is playing very well in Asia. Korea and Japan could generate, together, $250 million.
That being said, I think $1 billion is a given. And I originally thought JB would be lucky to generate $750 million (and I think Disney thought the same). Accordingly, approaching $1 billion is a genuine success.
And thanks for your notes on Zootopia. That has been approaching $1 billion steadily, but in bits and drabs. I could see it falling short, but, as you note, continued strength in Japan is helping. That same strength may come into play with Jungle Book (history may not repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes)
Today presents another real buying opportunity. I would add that I think that this is going down a little more, but I wouldn't be greedy either. There is no way that stock isn't in the middle of a great quarter - it is looking at $4 billion (and that may be on the low side) of box office revenue for this quarter - the first quarter, had about $2.25, and the last quarter had about $1.25 billion. The only "negative" is that we had an early Easter, so that the Parks may have been a little quiet in April - but there will be some income from Shanghai Disney at the end of June, making up for that. $2.00 a share is very possible (add 2 cents for each $100 million in box office over the $2.25 billion for the first quarter - about 35 cents, and add that to the first quarter's earnings of about 1.63 - and you get a shade under $2.00 - but add a little adjustment for stock buy backs, and that will go up the extra few pennies.) That will give you a $6.25 earnings for the full year, at least in my opinion. And next year, in my opinion, will be even better - $7.50 a share. If Disney comes back to a 25 pe ratio (its traditional ratio, validated by its strong brands, while the S&P is at 24 or so as we speak), that is the high hundreds.
I bet Disney laid off a little on stock buy backs as it approached earnings and rose over 100. I bet they are buying back more as it has dipped under 100. The Board had authorized as much as $8 billion of stock buybacks, and they had only used about $4.5 billion as of the last earnings report. I sincerely think that they have a goal of reducing their outstanding stock from about 1.6 billion shares to about 1 billion over the next ten years.
Although Captain America seems to be running about 5% behind Avengers Age of Ultron, which would translate into about 1.4 billion worldwide, and $435 million U.S., it did nicely on Tuesday, almost equalling the equivalent day for Avengers AoU. Perhaps some legs are kicking in. June will be the big month - Avengers AoU really hit a wall that month - I think its not spectacular reviews hit it - but this June, CACW will have XMen and then Teenage Mutant Turtles to cop with (not to speak of Alice and Finding Dory). But Disney is very happy with numbers just under Avengers - make not mistake about it.
And Zootopia is still plugging along - it had better numbers yesterday than the week before in the US. And last weekend in Japan it did 17% more than the weekend before - if it garners momentum in the Japan, the question won't be whether it breaks $1 billion, but rather how much over $1 billion it does. (but JB will be coming to Japan in about 3 weeks, so that it will be limited in how much room it can run - another example of an embarrassment of riches).
And Jungle Book is still doing nicely. It rose, percentage wise, more yesterday than the comparable day last week. Call me crazy, but I think it has a chance of doing $400 million U.S., and $1.25 billion worldwide.
And remember this, SWTFA gleaned over $100,000 last weekend, which was only down 4% from the prior weekend. It will run through the summer, I speculate. And it even gleaned a few dollars overseas. If there really is a Marathon of Episodes 4, 5 and 6, you might see even a bigger bounce. Not big numbers, but it's something.
I find these numbers fascinating Disney is just raking in the money. And if these movies continue to show legs, these numbers are really going to be something.
Good luck. It could go lower, but it may not.
I'll leave you with these words of advice. A friend of mine bought some disney, and sold out when he had about a 20% profit. when it dropped 10%, I told him he should buy in. He thought it would go down more. So he didn't buy it when it was at about 32 - he waited until it was about 62. Very very shrewd. At least he has a solid profit now.
This stock is a buy. If you see it under 98, mortgage the bank on it. It will have $6 plus in earnings this fiscal year. Next year, I bet you see $7 to $7.5 a share. So just buy it.
The only "down" side is that Captain America is running 5 to 10% below Avengers AoU (Monday's numbers are about 10% below AAoU's similar date's numbers). It could "only" do about $1.25 billion - only if it begins to develop legs will it do better.
Jungle Book is showing some real strength, still,as well as Zootopia, The later, if it doesn't hit $1 billion, will be awfully close. And JB has a chance of hitting $400 domestically.
I saw this article about the $10 hamburger - but there is a couple of "high end" hamburger restaurants in my area and they charge more for a hamburger, although they provide fries and the article was a little less than explanatory on whether they provide fries.
Yes, but there is still some cannibalization. For example, on valentine day cards - this year, one might buy three cards, all "star war cards" cards. Next year, one might buy one zootopia card, one jungle book, another avengers.
There is certainly room for expansion, but, as with the movies, they are eating each other up a little. Jungle book hurt zootopia, Avengers hurt Jungle book and zootopia, and Alice is going to hurt all three. And then we have Finding Dora, and then the BFG is getting great reviews. If Disney could have spaced these movies out a little better, they might have gleaned $100 million more, and, although this is an embarrassment of riches, they have only one movie on tap for September and October. Thankfully they are moving the star war franchises to December from May.
They are buying back a lot of shares. But the Shares Outstanding is at 1.63 billion - is that a reduction?
I believe on the cc they said that they had bought back about 44 million shares (maybe 40 - 43?). And I think that the shares outstanding figure is an average of the last 4 quarters. Since they have been steadily buying back stock (I think they bought another 20 - 25 million shares in the last fiscal quarter of last year), they might have an actual amount of under 1.6 billion.
That is certainly a good point. But, I am afraid of a little cannibalization on this front too - there are just so many licenses to give out - don't the Zootopia legos eat into the JB legos?
I wanted to add a few more points to my other post in response to the prior email.
JB is doing quite well. This weekend it pulled near $18 million (domestic), nearly $3 million more than predicted. It has a lot of legs, and really doesn't have much competition until Finding Dory, and then can even draw during the summer something. I think $400 million is possible in the US, although I am usually very optimistic (although I would have said that $750 million for both JB and Zootopia would have been on the high side).
And JB is not done overseas - its total worldwide is up about $50 million in the last 7 days - so, although it is slowing down before S.Korea and Japan, it still might have as much as $950 million before it opens there.
Zootopia is still slowing down - but it did do 7% more this weekend in Japan than the prior weekend - so with one more good weekend it could just hit that amount.
Disney has an embarrassment of riches - this wonderful movies are competing against each other. And BFG is garnering really good reviews in Cannes - is this another $1 billion??