First, I disagree that "too much of the entire year" is built into the price. I really don't think investors have built the potential box offices for Avengers and Star Wars, and event Tomorrow Land, Ant Man, and the two Pixar movies (not one, two) this calendar year.
But there is another reason not to sell. Yes, IF earnings are poor, the stock will drop and you can pick up more later. But that is a big IF. IF earnings are good (and I think that they will be - see an earlier listing of mine - and I believe it is more likely to be good than bad), the stock will bump up, and you may never be able to buy back at the lower price - that is what happened last quarter, and the stock jumped from about 94 to over 100, and now you have 109 - you'd be kicking yourself.
One last note - I almost did that about 2 years ago - I had enjoyed Disney's rise to the low 60's. I was convinced that Disney was going to dip to the 50's, and I should sell and buy back lower. I was really really really really really really glad I didn't.
Disney is a stock to buy and hold at least 5 years, if not 20.
Disney is reporting 9.5 million for the openings on Wednesday for Avengers 2. Although they seem promising, I can't really be sure without better comparisons with Avengers 1 (I can speculate, but will be mostly guesses).
We will have to wait until Sunday afternoon. Avengers 1 did about 185 the first weekend. It really has to do over 200. I am going out on a line and say 224.
I just saw the news too. Maybe later today I can see a complete report on their thinking.
About 15 months ago they came out with a report downgrading Mattel. Mattel was in the mid 40's at the time. Maybe this signals a real turn around for it. But 37 ain't exactly the moon. Hasbro is around 70. That would be the moon for Mattel.
It's done that!!
My guess is that some of the overseas box office numbers are filtering in. I read that the French morning opening, did 46% better than the last record. I don't think that will hold, and it may be a single theater, but its still a nice report.
Another report, from 2 weeks ago, suggested that the US opening was only tracking to $200 mil. It also said that pre-sales were ahead of Avengers 1, so I find that suspect.
But, perhaps, the most telling find was that Avengers 1 did 85 mil in China, and they expect it to do over 300 million. Add that alone, with everything else steady, and you get to $1.8 billion.
Last, Avengers 1 did about 185 million its overseas opening weekend, with Avengers 2 having a slightly smaller footprint. Estimates are from 160 to 200+ for this weekend. Sunday's numbers should be interesting.
This will likely keep them away from being delisted.
But now they have to get a product approved that can be marketed. That is the real goal for them. They've been doing this too long not to have something more to show.
Rotten Tomatoes also gives it an 86% rating and a 7.5. That compares slightly better than fast and furious. I would have liked a little better, but those are still solid numbers. It may be a little short on the story, but some might be expecting more after Captain America Winter Soldier. With the new directors on the next Avengers, that may change a little.
For them to hit the numbers you are talking about, they have to hit some numbers on sales and profits. And they have to show that they can make some new toys that take the imagination of their customers.
It will only do that if the reports that filter in on the early box office receipts for Avengers come in exceedingly good. And it does open tomorrow in a few countries, and a few more each day on Thursday and Friday. Earnings aren't until after the US May 1 opening. But a nice one - two punch will get it solidly into the teens plus 100.
I bet that they will come out with the Fleet report when they come out with earnings. That is how it worked last time.
I think it will take a little time before the China park realizes its potential.
Whenever I see Star Wars, I see a $3 billion box office gross - and then people laugh at me for such an optimistic number. We shall wait until January.
David Einhorn has "re-entered" GM after pulling out of it. This may be a good sign, as GE is a major customer of axl. Although it is trying to diversify its customers, this may lead to more good news.
It's not Yahoo, its the analysts. They, simply, believe that Disney is fully priced. They are not raising their targets. They believe that it will earn a little less than $5 a share this year (and about $5.50) next year, and use a pe ratio of under 20.
They could be right on earnings and an appropriate pe ratio. But if Avengers 2 sets records starting tomorrow, and Disney beats earnings next quarter, maybe they will change their earnings by upping it by 50 cents to a dollar, and realize that this quality company is still a growth company that requires at least a 20 pe ratio, if not higher (although I think that it will slowly come down on my target, at least in my opinion.)
Ever since Iger took over there has been a nice relationship between Disney and Apple. Iger called Job's after getting the news of his position as head of Disney (I think he was the third or fourth person). Disney did a deal shortly thereafter to put certain items on itunes (before the pixar purchase). Iger may be on the Apple board. And Jobs may have had some role in redesigning the Disney stores.
I really think that Disney is the next Apple. That is why I have a price target of about 750 in ten years.
It should be able to stay within that range of 107.75 to 108.50 for the next day or so. On Wednesday, Avengers 2 begins to open overseas. As reports of crowds getting in to see it begin to drift in, you will see it break through your trading numbers.
In my opinion (which isn't worth much since I own some shares), we are in a holding pattern until the earnings report and the next fleet report (which should be any day now).
We will see (i) how much was lost in the last quarter (the least, the better), (ii) how much cash has gone down (the more cash on hand, the better), and what is the status of various rigs (what is the status of the Saudi rigs, the equipment in Nigeria, etc). As to the last item, maybe they are holding off as much as they can to give a little news (was the termination of the Saudi rig rescinded by some miracle, or a termination fee received: are the other two Saudi rigs firmly in place, or is there an adjustment; is something really happening in the North Sea?).
Good luck, seriously. There is potential here.
remember that Avengers 2 is opening in some markets overseas on Wednesday. This will be the driving force, at least in my opinion.
The fight may "hurt" a little. I think that Avengers is a slightly younger market, and, if someone wants to see it and is conflicted out, they would either go Friday or move it to the following weekend.
On the Derby, I would think that this is a different crowd. If anything, it might motivate some parents to send the children to the movies while they enjoy the race.
By the way, with the opening overseas on Wednesday in some markets, I think that the buying opportunities for this stock is over.
Sorry to break my promise (so soon) of not saying anything about Avengers 2 for a while.
Just checked the foreign release dates. Many are in the next week, some starting on Wednesday April 22. The biggest exceptions to being after the U.S. opening are China (May 12) and Japan (July 4). I think Disney is setting this up perfectly. But instead of arguing about it, we can begin seeing what the results are in the next few days.
I find it interesting that, with such a pressure to produce oil, they terminated a HERO contract.