I agree. He is not a wealthy man, at least prior to his stewardship of Disney. He probably owns a lot of shares and options too. Iger (as long as he is still a real shareholder) can do anything he wants - he has taken Disney from the 20's to the edge of 100, settled the differences with Pixar, bought Marvel at a price that should be considered a still at this time (but was highly criticized at the time), turned around Disney Animation, expanded the parks, brought around video, bought Star Wars, and keeps on bringing ESPN to a new level.
He's more than alright in my book. I'm glad that he decided to stay around for another year or two (and that Major League Baseball decided not to pursue him for its Commissioner).
thank you for this report. it is the first real analysis I have seen on the hero report.
but, as RJ says, and even as hero said at the last earnings conference call, this quarter was going to be a little rocky. if hero can break even this quarter, then they should begin to show some progress. It is ironic that the hurricane season is being blamed for part of the choppiness, because the hurricane season has been very quiet so far.
I have come to the conclusion that this stock has simply gone through rough times, has some work to do, but mainly just needs to show that it can continue to rack up profits at the present rate. If it has a couple of more quarters at +65 cents, it shows that it is making $2.50 a year, which is a 7/8 pe at this price - then it will enter the mid 20's.
Disney spent so much time in the teens and 20's over the past 15 years that they probably want to put themselves solidly in a different category before splitting.
And Disney doesn't like the expense of having single share shareholders (as parents and grandparents like to buy a single share for a child/grandchild) - the expense of sending out a dividend check or annual / quarterly report adds up - and these presents are expensive at $100 a shot as opposed to $15 or $25
Although I believe you will see 120 in the next 18 months, and I believe the quarter and year end results will provide a nice boost, I think you might be in a little holding pattern for awhile (like 85 - 95). Disney doesn't have real blockbuster movies for a few more months, at least until March when Cinderella comes out (followed by Avengers 2, Tomorrow Land, a couple of Pixar movies, and then by Star Wars). And the comps will be hard to beat as Disney had Frozen last year in November.
I'm not saying the Disney isn't a wonderful stock, nor is it going to be at this level for more than 6 months, but it doesn't have any real catalysts that will lead it to breakout. But I've been wrong many times before. And I'm not selling.
I agree. But, if you've been comparing the Guardians numbers with Captain America, this weekend was the first time (since the first weekend) that the daily figures (on a weekend basis) fell behind Captain America - only about $1 million, and these are preliminary figures, but I was hoping that the domestic would break $300 million - but these figures are still stellar.
There seems to be some real growth on the overseas figures - after a slow start, they seem to be doing very nicely.
I think that Disney really really knows what they are doing. Someone asked when is Disney breaking 90 = maybe today.
Probably this week.
But there has been the smallest of #$%$ in the armor this weekend. Guardians has been consistently beating Captain America's daily numbers (after just missing the first weekend), at least domestically (overseas might be a different matter, but this remains to be seen). This weekend it may be about $1 million less than the comparable weekend. If it had held up this weekend, it could have looked like a $300 million winner - now it may have a tough time beating $275 m - which is still about $100 more than Disney had hoped for.
On the other hand, the 100 foot journey seems to be very nicely, although this is not a big budget item.
Disney will still be 120 in 18 months
Mattel is certainly suffering some of the retail plague. I look at the MH, which, until recently, was doing gangbusters - its gain was Barbie's loss, but both lost in the last quarter.
And Mattel is suffering from the "compression" of its market - children are leaving toys sooner for the electrical devices.
But Mattel is learning that it must develop its own brands, and they can live off of Barbie for only so long. That is what American Girl is about. And that is what they are trying to do with Thomas the Tank Engine. Brands are important - look at Disney and Marvel.
They may be growing overseas, but unless they can regrow their brands, they will simply become a dividend stock for a niche age group.
I'm holding on. Its dividend and the "hope" that they turn things around is keeping me around.
I agree. When Disney comes out with Avengers 2, and it does at least $250 million the first weekend, and is likely to see $2 billion worldwide, and peoples realize that Star Wars is only 7 months away, it will move steadily towards that.
I believe they held back the dividend last year (I think it went from 75 to 85) because they didn't want it to go over 1.00 for the next year - they prefer to buy back stock, rather than dividends.
As to our other friend who sold at 35 to buy back in the 20's, I have a friend who bought on a dip into the high 20's, sold at about 35/36, and I told him to buy back when it fell to 33 - he did buy it back, but only when it was in the low 60's. I thought of selling in the mid 60's, to buy it back when it dipped into the 50's, and, guess what, it never dipped - good thing I just held on.
All I know is that another article keeps on coming out saying that Disney, as good as a stock as it is, is just too highly priced, and that you should only buy on a dip (now into the 70's),
I keep on saying, keep on coming out with these articles, because Disney then proceeds to hit new highs.
Thank goodness I didn't sell at 64, planning to buy back at 55, because it never saw 63.
And thank goodness Baseball decided not to pursue Iger as its next Commissioner - because Iger is a very steady hand, and he will see it hit the 100's before he leaves (I think at least 120 by 2016).
It is nice to see a director buy some more shares. It would be a little more comforting to see more insiders buy, but we have time.
the officer's sale was not comforting, but sometimes an officer has different personal demands that a director doesn't - like tuition for children.
we have to wait for the next fleet report.
good luck to the longs
I had a typo - I meant 30 days, not 30 weeks. analysts have pushed down the estimates over the last 30 days.
yahoo estimates show that analysts have put the average profit at negative 3 cents for the present quarter, down over the past 30 weeks. This is a tough quarter, as hero said at the last earnings conference call that the consolidation and the hurricane were making it a tough go, although the end of the year looked better. I would suggest that the better weather in the Gulf of Mexico may help some companies agree to take on some contracts sooner, rather than later. And, although oil prices are down a little, the mideast troubles may cause some to jump in as well.
But it is frustrating. If management announced a stock buyback, it would make a lot of sense. Unless they are waiting for some good news within operations, or they have some bad news within operations.
twx didn't ask for the takeover bid. it has its own strategy. If it develops its DC comics like Disney has with Marvel, it has a real winner. If it unlocks the value of HBO into another netflex, watch out. One commentator, before all this Fox news, had said that twx was going to 150 in a few years. that is more than fox offered.
sometimes the best deals you do are the deals you don't do.
I agree. But 97 is doable in the next 12 months. In fact, I still think that you will see 120 by January, 2016 - you will see Avengers 2, a pixar movie, star wars, and Shanghai Disney open. And, as 2016 unfolds, you will have politic spending on tv for the presidential election (could be a couple of billion spread around the networks and cable), and Finding Dora.
I wish if you were optimistic about Disney, you would just come out and say it.
But, truthfully, although you are too optimistic, if Disney beats it expectations of $1.16 ((let's say $1.25), that would give them $3.40 for three quarters of a year - right on target for $4.50 for the year). That would put them at a pe of less than 20 right now. And they are worth a 20 pe.
And don't forget that pixar is returning to the fold.
Disney has had two very nice "sighs of relief" this year. There were some stories of another Lone Ranger for Maleficent - that is not the case - it has done over $700 million and may approach $750 million when all done.
There was some concern that Guardians would not live up to prior Marvel movies, or simply have numbers similar to the first Captain America and Thor movies - Disney has created a fun movie that has livened up the dreary summer box office year we are having, and, depending on its legs, could be the highest domestic grossing movie of the year.
If there is any weakness on Disney approaching or under 80 - buy - but you may not see such a low price - whenever I have said that in the past, I've been wrong - Disney has just risen to new highs.
I don't understand it either. Yes, they missed estimates. And yes, their sales in Brazil and another S.A. country were off due to ressions. But they are making about $2.50 a share. that is about an 8 pe ratio. (and eventually Brazil will come out of recession).