Iger has taken the stock from the teens/20's to about 100. He is very secure. Eisner turned the company around in the late 80's - 90's, and then floundered for at least 5 years. Iger has this temporary blip on his record.
First, Iger, just before the earnings report, went on CNBC and spoke about how wonderful Disney was - I don't know if it was pre scheduled, or if he was trying to prompt it so that any bad news would not over stated, or whatever - if it was part of a plan to ease any pain, it did not work. And they believe that any comments won't work.
Second, if they were to make a statement, it would have the exact opposite effect - it would lead some to say that they are trying too hard to mask a problem.
Third, they don't mind the decrease because it lets them buy more stock on their buyback. They almost want a drop - buying back 60 million shares instead of 45- 50 million helps the company in the long term.
Fourth (and this reason means that you should ignore the first three), Disney doesn't like to tout their stock. They may note problems, but they won't go out and promote the company for the sake of the stock price. They want to be professional.
It will make $6 plus. At least in my opinion.
With the money it will rake in from Star Wars, Captain America, and Finding Dora, to name just a few, they will do quite well. And with these lower stock prices, the stock buybacks will purchase even more stock back, increasing the profit per share.
We can talk about this over the next dozen plus months.
There are few real buying opportunities on this stock. This is one of them
This stock is going to make $5 + this year (which has about 6 weeks to go). It will make $6 plus next year. They are buying back stock, now at a decreased price.
Yes, cable is facing an unbundling issue. Disney has said that it will cause a decrease - instead of seeing mid digit percentage increases (i.e. 7 - 9 %), it will see mid digit INCREASES ( 4 - 6 %) for the next 2 years, and THEN a return to the higher range. ESPN is a product that people MUST have in an entertainment world. They will deliver it through cable, or some other means, and people will PAY for it. Iger and his successors will figure out the most efficient productive course.
When Disney was in the 90's, and "crashed" to touch under 80, I said it was a buying opportunity. I said I was worried about the last earnings report, but I was too optimistic in the long term to be trading. In retrospect, I should have sold, and bought back now. But that goes for a lot of my trading over the past 30 years.
I doubt Iger will buy anything else in his final 3 years. He has his hands full. He is trying to execute to make sure all his movies are QUALITY movies, that have the ability to sell tickets. He has just announced an expansion of his parks, and that is a full time job. If anything, he is interested in expanding globally - India, Africa? And he has to make Euro - Disney work better. The next CEO will decide whether to buy anything, but I don't think it will be much - he/she will need to concentrate on the channels to deliver content.
ESPN still expanded last quarter. And Disney only pegged down growth from high single digits to mid digits. And Iger has said that things will improve in 2017. This is more a blip. I wouldn't worry about it.
There is a lot of perception built into the stock price. And Mattel is perceived as a troubled company.
The next 2 quarters are very key. If they prove that they are making money, with INCREASED sales, then they will move very nicely. If they show nice profits but not recovering sales, then at least the dividend will last, and support the price. If they show off profits, but increased sales, the dividend may or may not survive, but there will be a perception of progress (but reduced prices from overseas make this more unlikely). If both are down, then you will really see some blood.
Well, I guess something is going to happen in the next 6 weeks!!!!
The stock will probably jump a little on Monday because of this. Not because its going to bring any money in the next 6 weeks. This actually is going to cost a fair amount of money. But it shows that Disney has a lot confidence in the future, and the demand for Disney in the future. That is why I said that this is a stock for the next 5 - 30 years.
Thank you both. Remember the panic last October when this stock dropped from the low 90's to touch under 80. But to be candid, that was a little more "panic" for emotional reasons (Ebola, some undeserved general economy concern) - and I was a little more optimistic back then about on Avengers and TomorrowLand. Now we at least one movie disappointment, and a more realistic ESPN/cable perspective. But content is still king - and Disney has that. And people are not going to be persuaded not to pay money for good entertainment.
This is a buying opportunity, particularly for anyone who is interested in a 5 - 30 year perspective. Even a 6 month view will produce a 15 - 20% gain - but I would hold on longer.
This stock is in a holding pattern. It will fluctuate between 104 and 111 until early October. Then Disney will have new authority to start buying back stock - and a lot of it then. And they will buy back as much as possible as quickly as possible because they will know what is in store. Then earnings will come out in early November, and this time I feel a little better about them as the bar will not be so high and it will give some comfort. Then the Good Dinosaur comes out, and we will have a movie that gobbles up a fair amount very quickly - quickly because Star Wars opens about 3 and a half weeks later (maybe they can glean a few dollars for youngsters that would rather see dinosaurs during the holidays). And when the analysts realize that Disney is taking in a lot of money from Star Wars, people will remember that this recent episode was just a blip on Disney's rise.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the recent issues with the Chinese devaluation help Mattel?
Mattel makes a fair amount of their products overseas - I think it might be 100% in China. If that is the case, the devaluation means that costs will be lower, and that means profits will be higher. It might hurt sales in China, but that, although growing, is not the major portion of Mattel's sales.
Isn't that so?
Well, I'll say why its a buy.
It's going to make $5+ a share this year, and $6 next (the fiscal year ends about Sept. 30).
And probably a dollar a year more for each of the next two years too.
when it hit 108.50 today, people really should have loaded up on this.
Disney must be mustering every dollar it can to buy back this stock.
My analysis is this simple - it will do $5.00 plus this year. So far it has done 1.23, 1.27, 1.45. If it breaks 1.25 the next quarter, that will be 5.20. And Iger is going to squeeze every dollar out to prove the Disney is worth it - he usually doesn't, but I believe he is frustrated that the Market has effectively downgraded this company. And next year's movies will bring in all the money he wants, so he can delay a few expenditures until the next quarter.
5.20 times 20 is 110. But add a little to it, to make it 25, and you have 130. And next year they will beat $6.00 a share - and I think 6.25 is very doable.
This is an easy call.
I had a look at the Barron's article. It said a few things of interest.
First, they reminded me that Disney said that ESPN/Cable, instead of growing in the high single digits through 2016, it was going to grow in the mid single digit. That's not really horrible, particularly after all the bad news about cord cutting. And, if I remember correctly, Iger, on CNBC said that 2017 and beyond was going to be the beginning of a few good years for ESPN/cable.
Second, they are keeping their upside at 165.
Third, they believe that $8/share profit in 2018 is very possible and that, at present pe that translates into 165. These earnings are consistent with what I believe (and I'm not as knowledgeable as Barron's, and not as smart either) - at least for the next few years - I believe that we will have $5 plus this year, $6 next, and at least $1 more each year after is logical. I personally would add two thoughts - first, a pe of 25 might still be approachable in 2018, second, Iger is retiring in 2018 and he will leave on a high note.
There's been a fair amount of panic. Let's take a look.
As much as I've been a cheerleader for Disney, I did say I was worried about this quarter. There just wasn't any reasons for Disney to beat analysts' estimates like they did the prior quarter (which masked the ESPN leveling off) - if Avengers and Tomorrowland had performed better, yes, but let's not go there again.
And ESPN did just fine - it had a 5% increase. Disney confirmed that ESPN was going to struggle - but this is a business that has expanded greatly, and some maturing is in order. But Iger has said that 2017 and after will show some real expansion. And sports is the one true reality entertainment - a week ago the Mets (yes I'm a Mets fan) had "traded" a player who was then seen crying on the field - he wasn't traded, and hit a walk off home run 2 nights later - it is true "reality" - you can't make it up and must watch it live with commercials.
And Iger has been trying to build Disney's OTHER core business. This is taking hold, and next fiscal year I count as much as $10 billion in box office money. Now, I may be a little high, but even $5 billion is a lot. And, while Disney doesn't get all the box office money, they get other studio sales in dvd's, and even music sales. And their Parks are expanding - Shanghai anyone? Even within the Parks they expand (their bracelet tech is a real plus) - and eventually Euro Disney will be a plus.
And consumer products are really coming into their own. As Disney get's more control over its Marvel licenses, there will be a real increase. Interactive will continue to show progress - particularly with the Star Wars.
Baron's has an article whose headline seems to say good things, although I haven't read it yet.
I trust Iger. He is not another Eisner, who is owed thanks for turning Disney around but didn't have 2 acts in him. Steve Jobs wasn't perfect. But Disney will make $5 plus this year, and $6 next. And that will mean 125 - 150 in the next year.
Don't get too scared of the pe. It is really in the low 20's. They will finish on September 30th at over $5 a share. Next year may see $6.00 a share.
And a pe of 25 for a solid company that is growing with the brand and assets that Disney has is not too high. Remember that they are buying back stock. Although I think the pe will slowly retreat to 20, that will be over a ten year period.
This is really a buying opportunity.
This stock is going to make about $4.95 to $5.25 a share this year (which is over in less than 2 months). at a pe of 20, that is 105. But this stock demands more of a pe - at 25 it approaches 130.
And next year it will have $6.00 a share. With Star Wars, you will see a couple of quarter approaching $1.75.
In October, this stock dropped from the low 90's to touch under 80 for a few minutes. This is reminiscent of this. If you are at all interested in a long term stock, buy now.
They certainly gave Iger a hard time at 9 this morning. And Iger gave back. He still is confident of ESPN. He sees growth. but cnbc is wanting him to "show me".
I have a lot of faith in Iger. He has ridden ESPN nicely, and has placed the other parts of Disney in a position of growth. And they, particularly movies, need to expand. May had a couple of missed opportunities (my favorite phrase), and, if they hadn't, it would have demonstrated that these other parts were really expanding. We will have to wait until December 18th - star wars - to see this realization come into play.
Is Iger another Eisner?? Eisner led a turn around in the 80's and 90's, only to falter in the late 90's and after. Iger breathed new life - adding content.
Iger is going to squeeze every dollar he can in the present quarter. He's going to delay some expenses. We will exceed $5 a share this year, and $6 next. He going to prove them wrong.
All I can tell you is that stock prices fluctuate.
Apple has had its share of ups and downs. I made a mistake many years ago when it "dipped" to nearly 50, and I didn't buy.
This will recover. I think we'll see 115 within a few weeks. Then it will bounce around the high teens as we approach Star Wars. I'm still comfortable with 125 by January, and I think 150 by the end of next year is possible as Disney begins to produce quarterly income of over $1.50 on a steady basis.