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iPath DJ-UBS Coffee SubTR ETN Message Board

robinspec 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 25, 2015 7:21 PM Member since: Nov 7, 2006
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  • robinspec by robinspec Feb 25, 2015 7:21 PM Flag

    Prices will tell the story. There's not a doubt in my mind this stock will do well some time in the future. It may be next week or it may be next year. All I can say is my analysis based on price action makes me believe I'll be able to buy this stock much cheaper than today's price. The difference between $30 and $15 dollars is huge. Not only is it a 50% discount from today, but once prices start going up I'd be up 100% at today's prices. Even if it's only a 25% discount it's still huge. The smart money will fade today's prices for a big discount in a few months. Inventories continue to climb so I find it hard to believe the worst is over.

    Again, I believe SLCA is a good stock to own. It's all a matter of what I can buy it for.

  • Reply to

    Say what ?? robinspec----

    by centerdir Feb 12, 2015 9:42 AM
    robinspec robinspec Feb 15, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    Center, I know after riding this stock all the way up to $75 and then riding it all the way back down you're not all that smart but really,.... to lower yourself to cheerleader status. I guess desperate times leads to desperate measures. For your sake I hope you're right about oil having bottomed. Personally I think sentiment got extremely bearish and we're just seeing some mean reversion right now. Once the market shakes out some of the bearishness oil will go lower again. But that's just my "wind bag" opinion. By the way there seems to be a lot of other wind bags out there who feel oil will go lower including Goldman Sacks. But hey, what do they know. The SLCA cheerleader knows better. Good luck to you.

  • Reply to

    Say what ?? robinspec----

    by centerdir Feb 12, 2015 9:42 AM
    robinspec robinspec Feb 12, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    As I said, bounces will come and go but oil has nowhere to go but down. I know you're the number one cheerleader on this board but I wouldn't get too excited just yet.

  • Reply to

    Current Rally

    by robinspec Feb 9, 2015 3:47 PM
    robinspec robinspec Feb 11, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    Greed is exactly why prices will go down. There's huge interest in buying what people perceive as cheap oil and so called under-valued oil stocks. There has been no capitulation yet. If fact we're far from it. Everyone thinks oil will do a sharp rebound and they're all going to get rich from it. The sad news is the fundamentals have changed and it may take years for things to level out. Just today oil inventories rose by nearly 5 million bbls adding to already record highs and it's likely to get much worse from here. When all of you can't stand the pain and finally sell please let me know. That's when I'll know we're near the bottom.

  • Reply to

    Current Rally

    by robinspec Feb 9, 2015 3:47 PM
    robinspec robinspec Feb 10, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    Anyone who thinks we're at a bottom in oil simply isn't paying attention. Bounces will come and go but oil has nowhere to go except down. Everyone is pumping it out as if their lives depended on it. And for many producers it does. All of the shale producers HAVE to pump to pay their debts they took on while the bubble was forming. The only way they're going to survive is to cut way back on their expenses which means they'll finish the wells currently in progress then slow drilling to a crawl. Those companies supporting drilling activities are going to hurt. Production is still rising as the glut gets bigger. This won't fix itself for a long time unless OPEC and the other large producing countries cut production and most of them HAVE to pump like crazy to keep their economy going. It's an ugly situation. When you hear calls for $20 to $30 oil I'd listen to what those people have to say. Good luck.

  • robinspec by robinspec Feb 9, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    The current rally was in conjunction with a short term pull-back in the U.S. dollar. This rally won't go much higher if at all. Today's price bar along with the prior price bar has formed a double doji right at the 50 day moving average. We have now finally completed a full mean reversion following the prior large sell-off. With prices now in an over-bought condition probabilities now favor a move to an intermediate lower low to complete the bearish pattern. Once this pattern completes THEN it will be time to buy for the long term. While it's possible for prices to extend a bit more up the probabilities are stacked against it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • robinspec by robinspec Feb 6, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Time to buy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Go Pro's earnings was very bullish AMBA. The bid is at trend line support. Who wouldn't want to buy there? This open will provide a great buying opportunity. Use it to add more shares. Some say the P/E is too high. High P/E is to be expected on a good growth stock. AMBA will enjoy double digit growth for years to come. I believe it's just getting off to a good start so far. The best is yet to come. Calm down and realize a low float growth stock like this is going to be volatile and with the huge short interest a rocket shot is possible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Who's chips are Go Pro's competitors going to use? While Go Pro's business is great for AMBA I would have to believe their chips are also going into other brands as well. What about security cameras, back up cameras, police dash and body cams. Don't be concerned about the after hours sell off. The shorts use low volume hours to paiint the tape. Look at the chart and draw trend channels. We were near the lower trend line and moved higher on good volume. There should be follow through and if we go to the top of the channel prices will be around $68. This stock has good growth prospects for years to come. Buy the dips.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SLCA Breaks Downtrend Line

    by robinspec Jan 17, 2015 9:21 AM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 19, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    I've stated before the long term oil charts point to a price target In the low $30. If you want a ton of detailed oil analysis google wolfstreet.

  • Reply to

    SLCA Breaks Downtrend Line

    by robinspec Jan 17, 2015 9:21 AM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 18, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    My analysis is based on prices and the charting landscape. It is assumed price action reflects all known information including fundamentals. To me the fundamentals both known and unknown are already factored into the price and mean nothing. Prices have taken the first step towards shifting it's trend from down. It's still early in the process but worthy of taking a position based on recent buy signals. One thing is certain. Prices will reflect the buying should the outlook improve. To try to figure things out from a fundamental perspective is only guessing at best and acts to sooth the nervous long term investor's minds so they can sleep better at night. Prices don't care what you and I think and will go up or down based on the collective knowlege of the markets. Prices are the only thing real that one can put their finger on at any given time. Concentrate on prices and you can't go wrong.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • This week SLCA not only broke it's downtrend line but resulted in candlestick engulfing buy signals on both the daily and weekly charts. All signs now point to a shift in trend and the possibility of a new uptrend. While nothing is written in stone it's the type of signal I've been waiting for to get long this stock. It could turn out to be only a short lived counter trend or simply keep churning sideways. Or it could be a major bottom is in. At any rate the candlestick signals are valid and I now hold a full position (I added yesterday on confirmation of the daily signal from Wednesday). As always I have my stops in place in case the signals fail.

    So now I'm in sync with all of you long term investors. As always the charts and price action have done their jobs and enabled me to get in at a low risk near the bottom and keep my cash working in other places while the downtrend played out. I find it amusing the poster who stated "beware of Robinspec". Never once did I try to get anyone to sell as my long term sentiment was hold. All I did was try to keep it real based on the message of the chart. I've seen far too many get wiped out throwing good money after bad. In staying with the spirit of keeping it real I'll remind everyone the large gap at the $40 level level remains a measuring gap with a price target around $7 until such a time as the gap is filled and invalidated. Until such a time the daily and weekly signals will point the way.

    There was a lot of candlestick signals yesterday throughout the markets so we have a potential rally starting. With lower volume on an option expiration day yesterday I consider this rally suspect. However buy signals are buy signals and it never feels really good buying near a bottom. That's why stops are important just in case the signals fail. The longer term charts are looking tired and a larger degree correction may very well be very near. Be careful and good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Candlestick Buy Signal

    by robinspec Jan 15, 2015 6:48 AM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 15, 2015 7:25 AM Flag

    My personal feeling is the Fed is trying to slow oil's decent because it's freaking out the market so they manipulate a reversal rally such as yesterday. They can slow it down but they can't stop it.

  • Reply to

    BEWARE OF ROBINSPEC

    by marcbirn Jan 14, 2015 12:59 PM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 15, 2015 7:13 AM Flag

    I agree with you Arithmetic, pumpers do far more damage. For the most part I just try to give people my perspective based on the charts. If the trend is down my analysis is going to be negative. I've seen too many people wiped out because they felt it was a sure thing and just kept adding during a decline. I TRY to get people to be more careful. It's a much different world today than it was when Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch made their billions. Buy and hold is a much riskier proposition now than it was then. A small amount of simple technical analysis mixed with fundamental investing is the way to go these days. But this is just my opinion.

  • Yesterday's bar was a buy signal. However the downtrendline is sitting at $26.50 and should act as resistance. I did buy a half position yesterday based on the signal. We'll see what today brings.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Time is the enemy of all short

    by dividendseeker Jan 13, 2015 5:14 PM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 13, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    I like the reward without all of the risk. The idea of investing is to put your money where it will do the most good in the shortest period of time. At least that's my idea of investing.

  • robinspec by robinspec Jan 13, 2015 8:11 PM Flag

    Yesterday on the IBD web site they reported Goldman Sachs upped their estimates of oil projects at risk in the US and Canada to $2 trillion from $1 trillion from the prior month. That's a $1 trillion in one month. They also said the amount of fracking projects at risk is $930 Billion. That's huge. This will not end well for oil stocks or the entire stock market in my opinion. The market today was up nearly 300 points and ended at a lose. It doesn't look good to me. I'm long volatility using the etf VXX. The VXX is breaking out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Time is the enemy of all short

    by dividendseeker Jan 13, 2015 5:14 PM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 13, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    Dividend, Time is not as much an issue as panic. Anybody can wait. Not many can ride out a panic bottom even though they should. I agree the right thing to do at this point is hold if you're in deep. If your buy point is anywhere close, if it where me, I'd simply get out. Why take the chance. I can alway get back in. I'd even buy back at a higher price just to make sure prices are heading higher. I'm a firm believer in risk management. Why risk it if you don't have to. I don't care to be a longggggg term invester if I can help it. Only amateurs would tie up their money for such a long time and endure so much pain when they don't have to.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Blood in the streets !!!

    by centerdir Jan 12, 2015 9:55 AM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 12, 2015 7:40 PM Flag

    Center, all of that blood is from long term investors like you. I'm sorry but all it would take is to draw a single trendline on a chart and when the uptrend broke, take your money and get out. You can always get back in so why take the risk. The broken trendline was telling you to get out. The probabilities were no longer on your side. You know you can still be a long term investor and use some very simple technical analysis to prevent things like this from ever happening. I hope you come out of this ok pal. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    SLCA

    by robinspec Jan 9, 2015 2:17 PM
    robinspec robinspec Jan 11, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    When I said $7 was a reasonable price it was based on a worse case situation. It's a price target on a chart based on the big gap in the $40 range. Should prices rebound and fill the gap the $7 target is invalid. It's all about oil prices which nobody really knows what will happen. The chart is set up for a strong move right now. All it takes is a strong move to point the short term direction. I'm ready to trade a squeeze should one occur. I believe SLCA will report a very strong quarter. It's the guidance going forward that's really the key to future prices keeping in mind companies tend to paint a rosier picture than what reality calls for.

    I'm a trader and not a long term investor so I understand our differing strategies cause us to see things from different perspectives. There's no way I could ride this stock to a 200% gain only to watch as it came back down to my buy point. But if you can handle the rollercoaster ride and the pain good for you. At any rate my analysis shows the potential for a strong squeeze in the near future. IF it happens I'd be happy to make a quick 30% - 50%. After that it would be a wait and see. Good luck to all of you long term investors. I hope you all do well.

    Sentiment: Hold

JO
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