You got a wife with a fender-bender too huh? Me too, but hers was a year and a half ago so still some time to wait. Regardless, thats a one time drop. Unless you switch carriers each and every time, its definately going up. Home insurance too.
You don't have to see the inflation, the market prices it in, just like the 3% rate hike we are getting in a month or so. Being sarcastic here as the REITS have been slammed hard over a .25 hike. At any rate, aside from gas, everything else is moving up, health insurance is shooting up, car insurance shooting up etc. I'm trying to not buy any REITS right now as I feel they are the next energy sector for the time being.
Yup, there is a thing called inflation. Bonds like this and NRF (you know that one well) don't fare well in a rising rate environment. Dividends should be moving up on this one, something is really wrong at the company if they are trying to keep their consecutive dividend rise alive by increasing trivial amounts each quarter.
Stock has gone from almost 20 to in the 8s all while dar said buy the whole time and you are putting this guy on ignore?
At current yields, the div should be cut completely and shares bought back instead. Even paying the penalty is still worth it.
Well they did. .85 or 42.5 cents, we are going down on CAD. Of course that should be no surprise to anyone as there is a reason the stock price is where it is and a reason why they aren't raising the dividend. Too many free shares, too high a payout ratio and financial engineering that might work if they did it fast enough, but they won't.
Maybe that is another reason why the stock price has stalled? That is the reason the stock price is stalled and dead. Financial engineering only takes you so far.
I really hope they don't do that, while short term it could increase value, it really becomes a pain in the rear with pieces of stock being spun off etc. I do hope they can get back to growing the dividend though, all you have to do is look at a 10 year chart of the dividend to realize that not even during the financial crisis did they increase this slowly. They can report any numbers they want, but for a REIT, the dividend and its increases is really all you need to know. If they can't increase the dividend, something is wrong.
IMHO, best use of cash for them at the moment would be to use the money for the dividend to buy back shares getting the yield to a reasonable rate and increasing the CAD by less shares being available. It would be worth paying the penalty tax at these yields. Of course this management would probably then go and muck it up by giving themselves the shares they just bought back.0
You think they loan 100%?? Where do you think the money comes to buy the real estate when they are paying out most of the cash? Major Achilles heel of REITS and shorts know it is they have to issue stock and if you short the yield high enough the REIT dies. NRF either spins this stuff off sooner rather than later and lets the mortgage component die or the dividend dies. No way around this unfortunately. Either they drop the dividend and conserve cash to make investments or they issue stock at hugely dilutive prices to get some cash and the dividend still drops. I'd be out if I wasn't so far underwater on this stupid thing.
Yes, 15% that grows bigger by the day. Heck yesterday alone we prepared for Ex div by giving away 2/3rds of the dividend. You aren't growing rich with bonds, you need growth to overcome inflation. NRF still has a mortgage component that is bleeding off and no way to make new investments as they are effectively cut off from offering any stock at these yields. Either the buyback works and gets this thing to a reasonable yield or a div cut is coming. Really no way around that. As to the OP, yes he is incorrect as the dividend has stayed the same and there has been marginal value created by the increased multiple from NSAM and NRE spins although thats largely been lost from price depreciation.
Not really that complicated, we can over complicate it to pretend things aren't going bad for us, but reality is, this thing is below pre split now and any value from NRE is quickly disappearing too. NRE trading over 5% now, so much for that huge multiple expansion. I'll give you we did get some multiple expansion, but nothing compared to the offset from NRF now trading over 15% yield.
yes, if we want to go into a vacuum and forget about NRF. That should work fine for NRE assuming the yield stays low enough.
I would love to see that, but I think you are kidding yourself. Maybe in 3 years or so. These stocks are broken now and only with dividend growth are they going to get back on track. NSAM can't support its yield without 20% a year increases to the div and so far there have been no increases. NRE at 20 would be a 3% yield, that will need dividend increases too and management has shown they aren't capable of doing that and that is why NRF is trading at 15% yields. Something is going to give eventually and more than likely it will be the dividend on NRF. They have no access to capital without massively dilluting existing shareholders and I suspect the meager increases on the real estate side are not going to be enough to cover the decline from the mortgage side for long.
I have no issue with the yield, if its lower, thats great, we get more value, but the universal truth is that lower yields are lower because the dividend is growing. People are pushing the yield up on NRE because like NRF and NSAM, no one is seeing any growth. Two spin offs and the dividend has not moved, just been redistributed.