Here are recent four day transaction records:
8/29 6.8m shares with short 630K, the market was up +$28.5
8/30 1.7m shares with short 630k, the market was down -$2.61
9/03 1.2m.shares with short 120k, the market was down -$1.62
9/04 53k shares with short .. ? , the market was down -$1.22
Short percentage has been dramatically dropped on 8/9, I estimated the short percentage now it is just round 8%. 8/30's 630k short, looks like shorts averaged down their short cost or people bet on "too-much-up" . For the average- down-shorts, these investors would not like to cover before $108, the rest of 1.1m were all assumed to be short cover. 9/3's 120k shorts are only 1/10 of the transaction. On third day, 9/3, by 3:00pm, I don't see big coverage, which means shorts are well-managed their loss. So now the situation is :
1. Three day correction is $5.54, less than 5%
2. Most of Shorts have covered their shares or average down the price, so most of them are out of the money and they are more likely hold their shares
3. Longs see their $29 profit diminished a little everyday. They are more likely Stop their loss by selling the shares,
4. New buyers are very rare, since the correction is less than 5%.
In the next few days, we shall see share will be driven lower, if no major news affects on the stock. No real buyers, but shorts cover with a little profit. Meanwhile we don't see it drop off too much, as profit shorts will bring the price up.
Besides the above reasons, I see other to reasons:
5. No other rating company follow the price raise target
6. Long term UTHR problem (after 2017 still exist)
7. It will NOT be a take over target since the patent life is too short.
8. The September market is always shaking, as the fund managers are usually calculate their year-performance.
9. The psychology for buyers is usually buying the stock when correction for 40%, in this case the price should be down to around $105.
10. look EMES, BITA, MNST
I don't like rating companies. I don't know how they come out with outrageous price level. Small investors also trapped by their target price. EMES was target $145. Last Friday, some investors really have chase for the last penny, but today, the rating company DOWNGRADE it to $132. So who is right?
BITA was upgraded to $95, some investors really buy it at $98, Now it is $88. I don't buy this stock, since it is too close to the target. I always keep 20% away from the target price, since different rating company have different ways to make their conclusions, We shouldn't be one of the victims burned by their target price. If you make money today, why are you guessing directions for the next move?
Target price is a "dream price" by rating companies. There are many "ideal" assumptions while they make their target conclusions. How many investors are making money when they hold the stock up to the "target"? "Eat the middle section of the fish" is the best strategy in most of the situations.
The patent enhancement does not change the structure of the competition, neither will change the profitability for its current market share.
Revatio. Approved in June 2005 in the United States, Revatio is also an oral therapy and is marketed by Pfizer Inc. Revatio contains sildenafil, the same active ingredient as Viagra, and is the first PDE5 inhibitor, to be approved for PAH;
•Letairis™. Approved in June 2007 in the United States, Letairis is an oral therapy marketed by Gilead for the treatment of PAH. Like Tracleer, Letairis is an ERA. In April 2008, Glaxo received marketing authorization from the EMEA for Letairis in Europe where it is known as Volibris®; and
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•Thelin®. Approved in August 2006 in the EU, Thelin is an oral therapy, which was developed and initially marketed in Europe by Encysive Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Encysive), for the treatment of PAH. Like Tracleer and Letairis, Thelin is an ERA. In June 2008, Pfizer completed its acquisition of Encysive. Pfizer has stated that it plans to conduct a pivotal Phase III clinical trial to support registration of Thelin in the United States and eventually seek FDA approval.
Many drug companies engage in research and development to commercialize products to treat cardiovascular and infectious diseases and cancer. For the treatment of PAH, we compete with many approved products in the United States and the rest of the world, including the following:
•Flolan. The first product approved by the FDA for treating PAH, Flolan is a prostacyclin analogue that is delivered by intravenous infusion. Glaxo began marketing Flolan in the United States in 1996. In 2006, Myogen, Inc. (Myogen) acquired the marketing rights from Glaxo for Flolan in the United States. In November 2006, Myogen was acquired by Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Gilead). The generic exclusivity period for Flolan expired in April 2007;
•Generic epoprostenol. In April 2008, Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (Teva) announced that the FDA approved its version of generic epoprostenol for the treatment of PAH. This is the first approved generic version of Flolan. In June 2008, GeneraMedix Inc. (GeneraMedix) received FDA approval for its version of generic epoprostenol, which is stable at room temperature. In February 2009, Actelion announced that it had entered into an agreement with GeneraMedix to acquire its generic epoprostenol product;
•Ventavis. Approved in December 2004 in the United States and in September 2003 in Europe, Ventavis is the only prostacyclin analogue that has been approved for inhalation. Ventavis was initially marketed by CoTherix, Inc. (CoTherix) in the United States and is marketed by Schering AG in Europe as Iloprost. In January 2007, CoTherix was acquired by Actelion, the manufacturer and distributor of Tracleer;
•Tracleer. The first oral drug to be approved for PAH, Tracleer is also the first drug in its class, known as ERAs. Tracleer was approved in December 2001 in the United States and in May 2002 in Europe. Tracleer is marketed worldwide by Actelion;
•Revatio. Approved in June 2005 in the United States, Revatio is also a
My source is shown $130-142. Anyway today just $10 away from it. What do you think if the price reaches to $130? It will stay or over or down? BITA show target $95, It reacheed to $98. Today, it is $87. So if you think we are roughly in that top range, what is the next day could be for the stock? especially with a one day run up for 28.5%.
Exclusive sale, I agree. But don't means sales will go up since they already have the market share fixed. You want to squeeze other competitors in the market? I doubt it, it is not easy.
I think today is more investors cover their shares and not so many people buy at this level. So until no short cover, long will dump it. Look at the BITA and ATHM.
How much are ICPT, ISRG worth? Today's low was $90 , but rating before today was $133. I am more like to play with tech in short term.