It will take a contract to move the stock significantly higher. It is just that simple. Field de-commissioning is the best bet, but a relative longshot. The UK government won't lean on operators in this oil price environment. Otherwise deep and mid-water offshore will require $75-$85/bbl. oil to be viable.
lawyers and members of the Board. When it gets to that point, well it's like a frog being boiled slowly in water, it's already dead and doesn't realize it. Just waiting for at least one institutional exit now. May have started today. If SMIT could sell the working capital and technology and facilities combined for about $10 million cash in aggregate and distribute $3.33 per share to shareholders---that would be quite a victory. More likely it just fades away over the next couple years w/annual revenues in the single digit millions of dollars. The BOD and management appear to be allowing the unwind to just run its course. They can do nothing to stimulate top line growth. It's down to breakup value now.
Moab and all institutional holders should not be placated by conciliatory and dilatory half-steps. These are the same folks that gave a dividend in response to requests to give back to shareholders several years ago and then took it away w/o prior notice on the assumed annual declaration date. The same folks that replaced just one director when all of them needed to go. There is precious little time to vet and consider other directors offered up by shareholders. The Annual Meeting 8 months away is too long to wait. Moab should act immediately. Not one more penny should go to the BOD.
if you think message boards move stock prices you should not be investing. stop reading and do your due diligence on the company itself. it's all about risk vs. reward. clearly the risk has gone up w/this investment, and the reward has diminished a bit as well. I choose to pivot, adjust and reduce risk. I would be happy to see the stock reach double digits in a takeout and that is still a possibility, but the risk to hang around for that holding a full position is now much higher. be careful defending a souring situation and getting emotionally tied to a stock.
yeah, pretty big couple blocks on downticks from previous trade for sure today. But it is tricky, since w/such a typically lower volume nearly illiquid stock you could not even anticipate getting out of that many shares w/o absolutely destroying the stock price. Someone obviously looking to take advantage of the announcement to provide a rather liquid exit w/almost no haircut (a few pennies). So technically you are correct, but there is some color to add to the situation is all I would add. In this whole mess the only unassailable and clear cut assertion I can make is that this company never had any right to be a standalone entity. The technology is great. Someone will want it. That makes so much sense as to the end game. What are they going to do otherwise? IMO they would have to literally re-build almost the entire company from scratch but even then still would have to deal w/ the strategic fact it makes no sense as a standalone in terms of size and speed w/ which they need to diversify and exposure to outside unanticipated shocks.
Absolutely killing it day by day for over a decade
I assume if Awilco has to fight this in court for an extended period (someone said Apache thinks it could take a year to get the rig into market ready condition and ,of course, Awilco doesn't agree, but Apache will drag its feet for a protracted period), Awilco really has no choice but to lay off all rig personnel while it fights Apache. Otherwise they suffer an unacceptable cash burn just to keep the rig crew on standby. The oil companies ALWAYS call the shots, Awilco will have to fight them in court to get the contracted payments they deserve. Luckily Awlico does have cash to pursue that, but court costs eat cash as well unless they can get Apache on the hook for those too.
so do you have an opinion, a projection, want to put you neck on the line and forecast? have you made one call about projected quarterly losses, negative cash flow, executive upheaval, a possible dividend omission? I mean playing Columbo is fun, but do you have the stones to make a call?
I have been selling between about $5 and $5.45 per share. About breakeven, but unfortunately did a round trip. When I originally bought I thought it would be a $40-$50 per share stock. I got greedy and drank the kool aid of Helix as a quantum leap in technology that would drive revenues and expand margins materially. That's on me. I learned something about execution risk. Not smart enough the sell at the highs, but also not stupid enough to buy at the highs. May hold some stock in hope a takeover is realized, but will be smaller player looking for a modest positive return if that eventuates.
I'd expect Mr. Friedman to initiate a proxy contest at the earliest possible date. Not sure whether a special meeting to hold same is possible. I believe that is driven normally by state law and the company's own bylaws. Nevertheless, activist shareholders have multiple ways to be a thorn in company's side if they feel the BOD is not acting in the shareholders best interest to enhance shareholder value. Sitting in my easy chair w/a bowl of popcorn waiting for the games to begin. You go get 'em Mr. Friedman! You will have solid shareholder support behind you.
What the hell are they waiting for then? The Annual Shareholders' Meeting in November? They have a majority now!
I'm not a trader, nor a shorter if that is what you are guessing. I only play for long term capital gains and the lower tax bracket it delivers. I also never buy lower after calling out bad company performance in order to reduce my cost basis. I do hold managements and BODs accountable and call them like I see them. Trading stocks is a losing game, even for so-called experts. I would never short any stock, least of all a thinly traded one subject to a possible takeover as likely as it is to go bust. Plus I am not fond of the 39.6% tax bracket when I can invest for almost half that cost. Admittedly this is a bad investment on my part. Any investment where I breakeven is a bad one. A few people are not moving the stock price. It has gone straight down for two years from $16+ after the announcement of a large German auto contract in January 2014 to under $5. Poor management, a weak BOD, negative cash flow, continual earnings misses, mounting losses, dilutive acquisitions are the drivers. You should be smart enough to direct the blame where it belongs. If you can't see that you are rationalizing a bad investment to reduce cognitive dissonance. It's ok, we all make some bad investments.
worry more about your investments than being Colombo. One makes you money, the other does not. If you own those two, and that is typical of your portfolio, you have some work to do. I hope you make money on both those stocks. I'll root for anyone taking a risk in the market. I'll leave this one for the hedge fund guys to sort out.
The institutional holders have waited too long to act, 12-18 months too long. The entire BOD was nearly voted out in November 2014. The impetus and appetite to initiate change was clearly there at that time. Now, any interested buyer is likely going to let this run its course and cherry-pick the pieces that remain, or do nothing and just absorb the market share left behind. FARO still stands to benefit the most.
Yep. It could be in the death throes now, unless they sell the company. That possibility is growing dimmer by the day as no potential acquirer has stepped up to bid on the company, not even at $4.51 per share on the stock price. PRCP has no one that knows how to actually run a company. The BOD cannot implement any strategy because the business model itself is flawed. They have no one left that knows how to grow a company. They are trying to simply save it w/cost cuts. They are hamstrung by continuing negative cash flow from operations. They probably have no pricing power because competitors smell blood and are ready to deliver the final blow. Employees have no idea how much longer they will have a job. Insiders stock options are worthless and stock held by them nearly so. Institutional holders are complacent and ready to chalk this one up as an epic fail w/o much fanfare because they have well diversified portfolios, and whatever happens w/PRCP is merely a rounding error to them. Like you say another great day for the broad market--moving toward record highs. Thanks heaven's for diversification. If you were loaded on PRCP you could be wiped out. Buckle up for the March quarterly results. It could be a doozy.
My call is it goes all the way or gets taken out, no in-between. I hope for the latter. I have made the aforementioned interim calls and also expect another round of personnel cuts and/or a financing within a few quarters. But I am referring to the bigger call. My calls have not been that bad.
They haven't filed a proxy, suggested new Board members, or even bought more shares in the open market to support their position---despite a further decline in the share price. If they wait until the Annual November Shareholders Meeting they are looking at possibly three forthcoming under performing quarterly reports (possibly all net losses), the early stages of tax loss selling and perhaps a $2 per share stock price at the time they would make their move. No other institutional holder has stepped forward w/public support of Moab's position. Paper tiger or empty suits is the correct characterization.
Seller obviously hoping market strength would offer liquidity to dump more stock, but there are just are no buyers for the stock at almost any price. It's tainted. The margins are simply not there despite great technology.
It's pretty clear oil companies are going to use any pretext they can to abrogate their contract terms. I think it is an industry-wide issue. I suppose the assumption is court costs and/or settlement costs will be less than paying the contracted fees previously agreed to. Apache has a bigger bankroll than AWCLF. They can just wait them out.