I was only talking about yesterday's price action-- a day when the market vaulted 2% higher-- the seller could not exit PRCP stock without taking a price as low as $4.45 per share to get out. It may be manipulated, I'll give you that. But I think you also have to agree the gross margins at PRCP are awful at less than 29% when CGNX is running gross margins of close to 78% and FARO close to 56% in the latest quarter IIRC. Manipulation and gross under management of the company may both be at play and shareholders need a better deal--- a new Board of Directors, an exploration of strategic alternatives, and failing that, a new executive management team. What are the institutional holders waiting for, hopefully not the Annual Shareholders Meeting in November as that is still six long months away. A lot of damage could be done between now and then. BTW the largest holder, Ariel with about 18% of the stock, also holds about 18% of VSR-- yet another company suffering from margin compression and delayed contracts. If you hold 18% of anything you need to be a little more activist in protecting your fundholders interests when the stock collapses and management and the BOD miss the mark over a sustained period of several years.
Seller obviously hoping market strength would offer liquidity to dump more stock, but there are just are no buyers for the stock at almost any price. It's tainted. The margins are simply not there despite great technology.
Those remaining invested are betting on a takeout. Those selling do not believe it will happen and anticipate the inexorable unwind if it does not. Wellington looks to have thrown in the towel and is exiting as best it can. I think there is about $5 upside and about $5 downside to the stock--nothing in between, JMO.
FARO and CGNX both have tremendous financial flexibility and gobs and gobs of cash to move quickly and flood the available markets w/their products. PRCP is just hanging on, trying to survive, and I mean by their very fingernails. FARO would be smart to gobble up PRCP while they can and merge the CMM and 3-D metrology product lines w/their own. It's a no-brainer.
gumby, crude has to do a hell of a lot more than steady out. It needs to rise to at least $75-$85/bbl. And yes there is a great surplus of crude, tankers full of crude are doing laps in the ocean. Oil prices can remain lower longer than most offshore drillers can remain solvent. The Saudis are self-imploding but nevertheless fully committed to remaining stubborn. They want to diversify their economy beyond oil--not sure how that works out. The best bet is that internal unrest forces their hand in 2-3 years.
in the latest quarter as a comparison. Margin compression and customer delays may have already sealed PRCP's fate. Moab has simply waited to long to act. The pattern of selling all strength in PRCP stock price continues unabated for well over two years. It is one of the longest patterns of underlying distribution I have ever seen for a stock.
Ariel could be facing a total equity wipe out on both PRCP and VSR due to customer delays and margin compression. I don't know why they insist on getting locked up w/15%-20% stakes in these suspect microcap stocks, unless they are playing a VC strategy where they fully expect most of them to fail but more than offset that w/the occasional big winner. Diversifcation reduces risk except when you are buying similar small piles of trash again and again in different industries.
The oil companies bankrupted most of the offshore drillers in the 1980s oil price crash. Past is prologue. At least Awilco has cash to ride out the storm for a while until the principal comes due on the debt. Can't recall the term of the debt , but they can easily service interest until then and even repay principal if they cut costs and cold stack the rigs. But who wants to own a company sporting zero revenues and rigs worth no more than scrap value perhaps for many years. I suppose litigation proceeds would have some value if they win, but some cost as well pursuing it. Without dividends, taking the tax loss and offsetting one's gains elsewhere in a portfolio may make sense. My assumption is foreign litigation is potentially far less punitive for the oil company than if Awilco were a U.S. company where one could really get nailed for unilaterally abrogating an ironclad contract where the vendor has shown outstanding performance on the the prior work they have done for the oil company.
in court to collect from Apache. Could take years. These oil companies really know how to work the system, or more accurately, their lawyers do. The last thing APA is worried about is getting another rig for work whenever they want. Vendor loyalty has never really existed in the offshore drilling business, no matter how professional the drilling crew is (and AWLCF has one of the industry's best). Then again ethically honoring one's business contract has never really existed either, except when oil is $100+ per/bbl and you cannot find a drillling rig. That is not going to be a problem for at least 5-7 years.
What the hell are they waiting for then? The Annual Shareholders' Meeting in November? They have a majority now!
Revenues expanded nearly one million dollars sequentially in the latest quarter and yet the gross margin declined. They are in effect giving away product to survive. FARO and CGNX gross margins run from the high 50s% to high 70s% . The margins embedded in the highly touted backlog and orders for PRCP are, well, highly suspect. How can they be running gross margins nearly 30 to 50 percentage points lower than the competition despite a highly sophisticated state of the art sensor and software product line? That is simply put, nearly insane. A few points to incentivize customers or to reflect lower scale economies ok, but 30 to 50 percentage points lower? The customer is getting the product below net all-in cost. The CMM acquisition is an albatross that will ultimately choke them not save them through diversification. Doesn't matter if your addressable market doubles, triples, or expands a hundred-fold it you are essentially giving away product below net cost.
The institutional holders have waited too long to act, 12-18 months too long. The entire BOD was nearly voted out in November 2014. The impetus and appetite to initiate change was clearly there at that time. Now, any interested buyer is likely going to let this run its course and cherry-pick the pieces that remain, or do nothing and just absorb the market share left behind. FARO still stands to benefit the most.
BTW Chris, I think FARO in particular is going to eat PRCP's lunch. Customers have certainty FARO is going to be around for more than a couple more years and they should become the preferred supplier.
I assume if Awilco has to fight this in court for an extended period (someone said Apache thinks it could take a year to get the rig into market ready condition and ,of course, Awilco doesn't agree, but Apache will drag its feet for a protracted period), Awilco really has no choice but to lay off all rig personnel while it fights Apache. Otherwise they suffer an unacceptable cash burn just to keep the rig crew on standby. The oil companies ALWAYS call the shots, Awilco will have to fight them in court to get the contracted payments they deserve. Luckily Awlico does have cash to pursue that, but court costs eat cash as well unless they can get Apache on the hook for those too.