Not to be a Dougie-Downer, especially on a day when the stock could have taken a hit, but if you will notice--the trend of all intraday strength still being sold has not been broken. institution(s) are still looking for an exit. The company needs a quarter or two where earnings, backlog, bookings are all up both sequentially and year-over year. Until then it is a trading vehicle where you sell the strength. Lucky if it closes green today.
I absolutely hear you creed. They do talk a good game though. Getting back a foothold on one of the Big 3 in N. America makes them fell pretty good about that region. They like what they see in China and India. Japan becoming a good new potential market domestically and abroad. Europe still positive despite weak growth overall in the economies. Deferred revenue likely to find its way back into the P&L. New products coming. A contract in the Agricultural equipment sector in Europe. 3D scanning to increase margins as they begin to introduce products. Then they inevitably pull the rug out from under you w/ a customer installation delay, or late invoice receipts, or whatever. I really do understand why almost everyone is "from Missouri" on this one.
Bookings and backlog up pretty good and better than expected. Got a little over a year of revenues in bookings. Guidance under such a scenario would normally be fairly positive. But given the quarterly ups and downs and all the volatility due to auto company scheduling of installations, they would be crazy to get far out on a limb w/guidance. The underlying numbers bode well though. The auto companies control both their fate and their quarterly results, probably always gonna be lumpy.
With multiple customer delays (i.e. "several delayed installations in the fourth quarter"), it's actually a bit surprising they still had positive net income in fiscal 4Q and full-year revenues held close to $60 million. Backlog jumped in the quarter sequentially instead of a small decline they expected, likely a result of the delays. I doubt the analyst revises his Fiscal 2015 revenue or eps estimates.
I bet they will (pretty easily) get that $1 million in net income they missed by in the quarter back in Fiscal 2015 now under way. The business is just all over the place. It be that way when you are in a derived-demand industry nearly totally dependent on the auto companies. This would operate much better as a business segment of a much larger company that can absorb the volatility and variability that 9 million shares outstanding cannot. FARO can you hear me?
Bookings and backlog look very strong . Now if they could just get a handle on their business. They seem lost, and surprised nearly every quarter by the results. The business is managing them instead of the other way around.
Diversification is the number one rule in building an investment portfolio: diversify over time, geography, asset class, industry sector, and sometimes you still get stung, but not wiped out. Still, that had to be a tough decision. If you bought over a year ago you were probably looking at a complete payback of principal via dividends in a tax deferred account in only 4 years (setting aside the possibility they sell the company for a huge capital gain which would also be sheltered in a tax deferred account). Of course you would pay ordinary income taxes whenever you starting to receive distributions, but for some of us that is 20-30 years down the road. So congrats on your timely purchase, your income received and your capital gains. Plus you still hold some. I have not sold a share and don't intend to, probably even beyond principal payback. I think he rigs will last and be in demand far longer than most investors expect---a minimum of 10 years and possibly all the way to the end of their useful lives of nearly 18 years. Like it in a tax deferred account and even a taxable account as the dividends become qualified in not that long a period of time, and holding over a year results in long term cap. gains treatment. But really like it in the deferred account if one can hold it there for a long time.
The market apparently wants to actually see them deliver on 3Q and 4Q results since many of management's prior expectations and guidance have fallen short. The isotope deal was not really announced w/any fanfare as as separate development and just tucked in the earnings release. The deal itself seems a little short of what they were seeking and clumsily cobbled together. They probably should have just raised the $3 million they were looking for in one fell swoop, from one source in a single offering. Gives the appearance of having to scurry about and really twist arms to raise the money. It's a start, not much more. Plus a bigger investment (i.e. partnership) and real development is probably 2 years away at the earliest. Cash position (and negative net working capital) probably has improved since quarter's end. Still a tightrope, but they are not having the rope wiggled as they walk it, is how I view it.
Think there is a 3:1 reward to risk ratio here, so it is getting attractive. Potential is $10 per share higher over the next 5-7 years which is a nice annual return (about 10%), versus near term risk of a further $3 drop per share drop. Does nothing ahead of earnings report and guidance. Think the earnings will be ok, guidance is a big question mark even w/the backlog near a record high. Japan just had a quarterly GDP of -6.8% as I recall. The numbers out of Europe on growth have been horrible in Italy, France and Germany as Europe is staring down a possible recession (the Ukraine situation may push them over). GM is going to be pre-occupied w/costs related to recall and litigation.
Agree it makes little sense from a company standpoint. But consider what small cap portfolio managers (granted not the sharpest lot in aggregate) are looking at. In July, the Russell 2000 fell 6%. More than a few small cap funds fell more than that amount, and some may even be down about double digits year-to-date, especially micro cap funds. With only a few months left in the year do you think they would be more oriented to recouping the losses, doubling down, worried about attaining a good year-end bonus? Or, alternatively, are they going to want to limit the losses, insure against future damage, assure against being listed in an article as a fund showing double digit percentage losses for the year when the market is still close to all-time highs, worry more about keeping their job than what kind of bonus they will get? So when a big contract or great news comes along for one of these very illiquid stocks that all of a sudden allows for an exit from what is otherwise a roach motel (you can check in, but you can't check out), some will take advantage, some will remain paralyzed and do nothing, some will buy more shares. I would wager the last group is the smallest. Many small caps have recently been getting flushed on big up day moves for the market. It's not a company thing. It's a fear thing. Hence the Russell 2000 down 6.1% last month while the Nasdaq Composite ( mostly dominated by large cap) was down less than 1%. Year-end tax loss selling pressure begins in about a month if you want to get really depressed. I always keep some powder dry for the late December, even December 31 at 3:00 P.M., Filene's Basement bargains.
Stock seems to not be looking forward to the report or potential guidance contained therein. It's now trading at less than 1 times revenue on an EV/Revenue basis. If it doesn't hold here, w/net working capital of over $5 per share and figuring Helix is worth at least $1 or $2 per share, I think the $7.00-$7.50 support range would probably hold. Hoping it holds here though as I think many institutions run the EV/Rev screen w/anything under 1.0 as a major signal. Up to now no one has been willing to step up as the sentiment toward micro cap stocks is awful.
to poke, other than the stupid, near-sighted tax policy of the U.K government. Will know in two months if Hess re-ups on the WilHunter for another 275 days, after yard work, beginning in early 2016. I bet they will. But if they do not, Awilco has more than a year to figure out another job for the Wilhunter. They can direct all their efforts to that one rig--it's not like they have to find work for a whole fleet of rigs. These guys running the company strike me as smart and not letting anything fall through the cracks every time I listen to them on the CCs. , including making adjustments to get the recently increased tax rate to get it lowered by early next year. It's nice to have a company that is nearly completely transparent. I say nearly, because I bet they have some conditional "backstops" or alternatives under consideration that they keep close to the vest. I have no doubt they would be totally directed to enhancing shareholder value.
Then add the value of the spas, banquet facilities, tennis courts, swimming pools, the hotel, etc. And I'm not even assuming there is oil or gas under the ground. I realize asset value or liquidation analysis is a different exercise than P&L profitability or cash flow analysis to which line assigns a multiple. Just saying there is more than one way to look at the value of a business. If they do it right, and it becomes a first class all-inclusive resort then you get intangible value as well beyond the physical assets in place. I like to think of that as Destination Value. If they do it right is a big qualifier.
On the other hand an April 17, 2014 Businessweek article cited the average sales price of a regulation golf course at $4.25 million in 2013 up from $2.7 million in 2012. Separately, the USGA says that average construction costs for a golf course ranges from $1.6 to $4.5 million, but the actual total cost of putting a golf course on line frequently exceeds $10 million (e.g. pro shop, maintenance, ranges, instruction facilities, golf swing analyzers , ancillary buildings, etc.). AWX has three 18-hole golf courses and my understanding is that they are not the average middling type of courses w/no frills.
Then after all that stock got turned over since the last earnings report, it just drifted back down into the terrible $2s. Still plenty of supply for sale. No idea where it is coming from. See no Form 4 or 13D or 13G filings at all. Bit of a mystery. Retail doesn't typically decide to get out all at the same time like that, but no institutional or insider filings, hmmmmmmm.
they already have a reserve against doubtful accounts. Plus, the only good thing you can say about the government is that they are pretty good at paying their bills to companies that serve them. That assumes most of the receivables are coming from them. The more important question is what the government spend off will look like into fiscal year end, and how much of that PESI will get.