Going the other way on that. Weather is better for Q2, like 180 degrees better. Injection wells running at low capacity, but they are running according to a recent article someone posted from the local Youngstown newspaper. I think they could be break-even to modestly profitable. That just-reported March quarter is probably something you see once a decade, -1.0% GDP, almost all entirely due to anomalous weather impact. And almost all of it impacting the Northeast. Actually, check that, you might be right that the market is expecting a large loss, but i don't think the results will bear that out. Guess that means I think you can nibble in here. Willing to add a little.
No knewscene, you never should sell short a stock that has only 2 million shares of float. You have to be right and have liquidity on both the short side and the cover side of the trade and would likely make next to nothing w/ a $4 stock. Besides that, you probably only have about $1 per share of downside left if things remain at a standstill and the company does not burn more cash on the wells. You'll note less than 3,000 shares are short on this one---there is a reason why that number is so small. Now talk to me about some of the 3D stocks instead.
I just checked and if I am reading it right, somebody bought a ton of May 30 puts today, accounting for almost all the open interest. They may about triple their money in one or two days. They may also get an inquiry. They shouldn't, because everyone knows that just about every 3D company misses either earnings or guidance or both.
What you gotta hope is that the limited partners on these wells are all friends and family or buddies he has to face weekly on the golf course and look in the eye.
Wow, it is pretty doggone rare that you get an entire investment thread where everyone was spot-on w/their predictions for quarterly results and the stock price and for all the correct reasons postulated. AWX blew through $2.5 million cash in Q1, mostly, if not entirely, for their share of the construction of the injection wells which have yet to contribute anything. Even if they become operational, we will all be holding our collective breath as they will always be probably just one seismic event in a 25-mile radius away from going bye-bye. I don't think we visit the $2s, but if the wells are a non-starter, the remaining base business is basically a break-even operation. It's one guy playing in his sandbox generating modest cash flow.
Shareholders rank behind family, other executive management, the BOD, employees and customers. Not the way I define fiduciary responsibility, but I am not running the company. It's run like a private fiefdom and gets the corresponding valuation from the public market. Shareholders are not so much part owners as they are nats to be swatted away by the pocket-liners.
I believe Ed Rendell is on record as saying funding will never get approved, given the continuing bitter Dem/Rep divide and lack of compromise on just about everything (over the last 15 years). Republicans will never approve the taxes on business and closing of corporate loopholes Obama is seeking to pay for the renewed funding. Better to buy stock in companies that manufacture tires, wheels, shocks, axles and perform alignments. The U.S. highways will continue to look little better than a Third World entity for at least another 10 years. Heavy duty truck sales will be strong.
The market will force Mr. Klingle to comment on the injection wells. Either that or it will gradually wipe out his equity---which is pretty illiquid in any case. His net worth is evaporating, so is that of the trust that owns a similar size chunk of this enterprise. At ever declining share prices, the pressure will soon be felt. The market hates uncertainty, and there is a lot of it here.
Looks like Hess has a 275 day option on Wilhunter after it comes out of yard end of Jan 2016. I would expect they pick it up if oil prices stay near $100/bbl (Brent).
from mid-July to to end of October? And at what projected day rate since day rates look to be softening a bit recently?
10Q is out and adds some detail. Q1 weather impacted, as expected. Would love an outlook section that speaks to whether waste that was supposed to be dealt with in Q1 rolled over to Q2 (I doubt the waste went anywhere and still likely has to be cleaned up). Also a mid-May update on the injection well status would be nice. See my previous post, revenues fell nearly $5 million and operating loss expanded $570,000. That actually isn't too bad (i.e., the business you lost wasn't generating much margin anyway; also consider there was some fixed and labor costs they could not avoid--you aren't going to downsize and let people go because it was really, really cold, snowbound, and paralyzed movement for three months-- you sort of eat those costs as a one-time event and move on). In short it was an anomalous quarter, an outlier. Still got about a one-third position waiting on details/outcome re: the injection wells. Good luck.
Lastly, the small amount of shares outstanding tends to make any change in loss or income look pretty large on a per share basis. The operating loss expanded less than $600K despite a near $5 million decline in revenues due primarily to weather. IMO that is good cost control under poor weather-impacted macro conditions.
The drawdown in cash for cap exp., possibly including future wells, all but rules out a share repurchase or dividend I think. That's okay as long as the wells work out. Verdict still out on that.
Q1 10Q released "under cover of dark" after the close on a Friday before the weekend, w/no press release. Loss of $0.18 per share. Cold weather the culprit. Injection wells started accepting brine in April on a limited basis while construction was being completed. We have talked for over a month here about how the bad weather would likely impact results, so that is no surprise and probably already in the stock price.Would have been nice though if management had given the heads up instead of letting amateurs like us on a message board speculate about it. The entire East coast faced recession-like conditions because of the weather in Q1, especially the Northeast. Good to read the wells began accepting brine, not so good to hear the construction has yet to be completed. Stock is cheap. Management runs the company like a private sole proprietorship. Given it's almost mid-May a well update beyond April would have also been nice.
I hate it when a company trades at just the value of its cash on the Balance Sheet, still makes money at the bottom of the cycle, and when I get the rest of the company's business for free. I especially hate it when the company is sized to make money even if they never spend another dollar on road repair or highway infrastructure during the remainder of my lifetime. And I really hate it when I own it in an IRA and can wait 30 years for a return. And I do not care for those Graham and Dodd fellas at all, what a couple of dolts.
Yes, a $5 million share buyback to take down about 25% of the outstanding stock at $5 per share would be a super aggressive step, but even half that amount would be terrific. To his credit, the CEO has done a very good job of not diluting shareholders w/excessive share issuance. In lieu of that, a $0.25 annual dividend would be preferable to cash sitting on the Balance Sheet and it would support the share price at the $5 level, while trying to grow the business. I'd prefer the buyback option though.
It is really tight. But they still have over $3 million of borrowing capacity, and indicate they expect to be cash flow positive this current quarter, w/further improvement in 3Q and 4Q. I think they can get by w/o financing, but I would rather they raised maybe $3-$4 million. It's one of those situations, where if they pull it off and we are near an inflection point off the bottom, the move is going to be powerful and fast because of the operating leverage. Only for sophisticated investors, only a very small part of a larger portfolio, and realize this is a very speculative investment. I bought more today. I still see what they do as unique in many aspects.