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Nanosphere, Inc. Message Board

roboklerk 132 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2015 12:23 PM Member since: Feb 2, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Why is it dropping?

    by tffm May 21, 2015 10:05 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 21, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    They need to conserve the cash and suspend the dividend. Obviously paying the most recent dividend did nothing to help the share price. All it did was create a taxable event while investors lost money on paper.

  • Reply to

    Good quarter

    by o08o.ugh64w May 8, 2015 7:43 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 8, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    Tone on CC is positive. Visibility is the most important issue and it appears visibility is there.

  • Reply to

    Good news CEO buying again!

    by hweb2 May 15, 2015 11:34 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 18, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    I don't recall PESI ever getting any DOE funding for its Isotope project, am I right about that? If not, why not and why did they have to go to Poland for the money? Setting it up as a separate subsidiary was a smart move as it can be separately funded and perhaps even acquired by another entity as a "defensive " move w/o having to acquire all of PESi itself. In any event, there is close to zero credit being given by the market that this will ever turn into anything commercially viable for PESI, so there is only upside and no downside to swinging for the fences. You do wish they had more money and DOE backing behind them however, or at least a big company like GE interested.

  • Reply to

    MARKETMAKER79

    by catcherofdrye Mar 18, 2015 10:10 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 27, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    forget the dividend, you are looking at a possible equity wipe out if both rigs are coldstacked beginning early 2018. The price action of the stock is signaling that as a real possibility.

  • Reply to

    Anyone Notice Markets Getting Illiquid?

    by roboklerk Jun 4, 2015 10:36 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jun 4, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    the Greece issue will likely be kicked down the road until the end of June, but they cannot delay beyond that. They should be cut loose now and just get it out of the way. Greece thinking they have any leverage at all is ridiculous. Most European banks have had plenty of time to gear up for a Greek default. If they have not done so, shame on them. This has clearly been visible as a probable outcome for five years.

  • Reply to

    Good quarter

    by o08o.ugh64w May 8, 2015 7:43 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 8, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    Partially agree. Revenues were good. However, the net loss per share was twice the lone estimate on The Street, although close to in-line w/ what the company had guided by inference on the last CC. The cash balance took a significant hit (w/o seeing the the Cash Flow Statement you can't tell why, as the net loss+deprecaition is only a partial explanation). You don't want to see cash drop that much in a quarter when you do not have a lot of margin in terms of cushion to begin with--although it could and should increase going forward. It will probably be the low quarter for the year. The market has been expecting a lackluster number in terms of the loss w/the share price unable to advance since the subdued CC after the year-end results. Given low, and correctly low, expectations there may not be much of a knee jerk lower, but not much to suggest a strong rebound until better numbers are actually reported in Q2. EBITDA guidance in the release trails the EBITDA targets for incentive bonus for the executives, but still suggests a strong rebound and better cash balance realization throughout the remainder of the year. Indeed, you would rather they be conservative w/ EBITDA guidance to the Street and more demanding of results for incentive bonus. All in all mixed results IMO, kind of "no harm, no foul". The tone the CC will be important. Would feel a lot better had that cash balance remained at least close to $3 million.

  • Reply to

    Why is it dropping?

    by tffm May 21, 2015 10:05 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 21, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    meant debt at pennies on the dollar and assumes a 5-year cyclical downturn which are are not quite one year into. The rigs have been refurbished and maintained to last for quite a while longer.

  • Reply to

    Why is it dropping?

    by tffm May 21, 2015 10:05 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 21, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    div going ex a couple days ago accounts for only $0.50 per share of a $1.30 per share decline as of early this morning. The volume is rather small so it is likely someone who wanted to stay for just one more dividend payout and then close a position, or a player(s) stripping dividends in a high payout situation. Best move would be to eliminate the dividend along w/the dividend strippers and conserve cash from here forward. Kind of depends on the company's decision of what they perceive as a "prudent cash buffer" and how long they see the drilling downturn lasting ( a couple years versus five or more years).

  • Reply to

    Anything happen at the annual meeting ?

    by smaycs4 May 1, 2015 10:27 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 22, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Where did this first trade when it came public 17 years ago. Like near $6.63/sh. or something close to it? What's that annual rate of return equate to? He'll end up leaving little or no legacy

  • Reply to

    Anything happen at the annual meeting ?

    by smaycs4 May 1, 2015 10:27 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 21, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    he just obliterates shareholder value.

  • Reply to

    Why is it dropping?

    by tffm May 21, 2015 10:05 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 21, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    In the last deep cyclical downturn for drilling 25-30 years ago, many, in fact I believe most, offshore drilling companies zeroed out. You want to own the debt in this industry not the equity.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jun 2, 2015 9:11 AM Flag

    Strange. Figured this news would generate multiple comments and sharply higher trading pre-market on volume. The isotope venture is a binary outcome for them: it works in commercial scale or it doesn't, it has huge impact or it has none, it is a game changer for the company or a non-event. Every indication gets a bit more positive, and yet there is no premarket trade, no comment other than yours, and really no volume at all for a very long time. For some reason press releases and conference presentations only bring out a little bump higher that gets almost immediately sold off on not enough volume to even notice. If this is truly a precursor to a commercial ramp up at even higher rates--- enough to satisfy European and U.S. demands---the stock should move at least $1 per share on high volume. We'll see. Not sure what else the company can do short of delivering actual bottom line results, and I suspect that is what is required. If this works either the market will notice and put value on it or a competitor or diagnostic pharma company will partner or buy it out while it still receives almost no public value (at least in the U.S. stock).

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jun 2, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    I'm not well versed and invest little in biotech or pharma. But I do know that when a game-changing drug that saves or extends life passes phase III clinical tests or gets FDA approval, sometimes the co. whose stock manufacturers it can see its share price move in multi-bagger fashion. I also realize that sometimes those drugs can have severe side-effects, sometime life-threatening but the benefits far outweigh the potential risk. Nonetheless, new boutique law firms spring up daily to address such concerns and you can readily see their television adds multiple times per day. Here you have a process that can save or extend life diagnostically, for which there is no real substitute, and as far as I know there are no side effects--it either works or doesn't. Actually we know Tech-99 works if you can produce it. And the share price moves 5 or 6%.

  • Reply to

    Instead of Using $1.4 MM to Pay A Dividend

    by roboklerk Jun 4, 2015 3:16 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jun 4, 2015 8:15 PM Flag

    Great technology, but apparently no one that knows how to run a company or what Wall Street is looking for. Somebody out there has to specialize in under-managed situations that have great technology but little else. Gotta be some PE firm's bailiwick.

  • Reply to

    Instead of Using $1.4 MM to Pay A Dividend

    by roboklerk Jun 4, 2015 3:16 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jun 4, 2015 7:57 PM Flag

    Yeah, only about three weeks left in the fiscal year. Probably not enough time to declare a dividend, set an ex-date and payable date by June 30. Figured the co. would have said something though---in the interest of transparency or just common courtesy to their shareholder/owners. That's what well run companies do. Ma or Pa Jones shareholder in Dubuque, Iowa may not be able to read the tea leaves or figure it out, and they shouldn't have to. Companies should be forthright w/their owners. Perhaps the co. didn't want to give the covering analysts yet another negative item in print w/which to have to respond.

  • It was clear following the last annual shareholder meeting they had enough votes to oust the Board, remove the poison pill, and force sale of the company. Instead they have failed to act. And so they can sit back and watch today as Cognex sells its comparably sized continuous in-line surface measurement and inspection system for about 3X sales. What remains here is a confused mess of delays, a missed dividend payment, executive resignations, blown quarterly results, and throwing of spaghetti agains the wall to see what sticks. Helix, yeah right, Helix.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 15, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    Those of us that warned made the key arguments against this in the low $20s: myself, market maker and I recall one or two others calling for this to fall to mid-single digits. That's a fact. The next question is when you buy. Not yet. There may be blood in the streets, but there is no capitulation. Watch for a big block cross in the lower single digits. Many offshore drillers are going to face equity wipe-outs like in the late 1980s. I think Awilco will survive, but can be bought cheaper. Even then you will need a Warren Buffett-like time horizon. One lesson learned: whenever anyone calls any company "the most undervalued company in the world"---run for the hills.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 15, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    Not much to argue about here w/the stock at $5. It's pretty much being regarded as worthless. The company better conserve cash in case both rigs need to be cold-stacked beginning in 2018 for several years. Think we are in a 10-20 year down cycle for oil. It's year one. Do you doubt it? Nat gas has been at subdued levels for 30 years.

  • Reply to

    AWX will drift lower and lower...

    by svenkarls1 Jul 24, 2015 4:00 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 24, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Nearly two decades of obliterating shareholder value. What a legacy. The bankers are all working on their golf game. There will be no problem getting a tee time when you own the courses.

  • w/reproduction and growth of those products unknown for several quarters? That sure sounds like a major league hedge by management. Those are supposed to be the higher margin products and less susceptible to customer timing decisions that influence the unpredictable in-line business. All we have been hearing about is the introduction of 3D scanning products for the last several CCs as a big positive for this company---increasing margins and smoothing the earnings variability. Now it's an unknown factor for several quarters? The lack of visibility for this company beyond whatever current quarter they happen to be in continues to be alarming. Every quarterly result is an absolute cra#shoot. Customer timing decisions will continue to drive results for the foreseeable future, which may be of undetermined duration--at least several quarters. No wonder the CFO left. They need to sell the company IMO. The wild roller coaster ride of quarterly earnings variability is likely going to be the norm for a long time.

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