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Nordion Inc. Message Board

roboklerk 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2015 12:04 AM Member since: Feb 2, 2009
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  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 30, 2015 12:04 AM Flag

    Management did sound more confident on the last earnings report.

  • Reply to

    strange how this stock always drops on good news..

    by rabbitw96 Jul 27, 2015 10:38 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 27, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    thx for update. probably know more soon when they do a CC for 2Q earnings.

  • Reply to

    strange how this stock always drops on good news..

    by rabbitw96 Jul 27, 2015 10:38 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 27, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Thought 5 or 6 curies was the target for maximum implementation/coverage for the isotope? They seem to be stuck at 4 curies, which I believe is still pretty good. Any science types here that can chime in?

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 24, 2015 11:59 PM Flag

    And since that letter the company has added a host of other problems: a revolving door at the executive office level, a maddeningly inconsistent earnings progression that carried over to a maddeningly inconsistent dividend policy of invoking a dividend than omitting it without notice or rationale, continuing option awards despite a lack of bottom line results, a Board of directors that has gotten that much older and that much more entrenched . And since that letter Lazarus has stood alone as the only institution w/the stones and character to call the company out on all these issues. Maybe they could not change anything w/o invoking a proxy fight which they were loathe to do. But they shone a light on how a company should not be run--- and that a company should be run first and foremost for the shareholder owners. Ironically, the support for such an action is probably there today because four years later Lazarus have remained proven right.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 24, 2015 11:26 PM Flag

    Almost every single point in that letter could be written right now, excepting four years later the company is just beginning to diversify. One wishes they could say they were waiting for the payoff of that recent move w/bated breath, but it more w/the holding of one's breath. The net cash position was cut in half. A chunk of intangibles was acquired. The acquisitions were projected (per the Jan 30, 2015 CC) to be accretive sometime before the end of Fiscal 2016, or within 11 months from now. Then again the company's timeline projections have been historically a bit of a wild guess for anyone who has followed them for a while. Timing differences and all, you know......

  • nearly four years ago. Look at the revenues and look at the net income. They have missed the entire auto upcycle. That letter of November 8, 2011 is as germane today as it was then both in arguing for the sale of the company and calling into the question the requisite skill set of the Board of Directors as well as the underperformance of the share price. It should be read by every current and prospective investor. Simply google: Lazarus and letter to Perceptron, and it is easily accessed. Read it before the next shareholder vote for the nominees to the Board in November. Read it before you buy the stock. It will take 5 minutes of your time.

  • Reply to

    AWX will drift lower and lower...

    by svenkarls1 Jul 24, 2015 4:00 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 24, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Nearly two decades of obliterating shareholder value. What a legacy. The bankers are all working on their golf game. There will be no problem getting a tee time when you own the courses.

  • Reply to

    In the $1s Anytime Now

    by hansy_burkhalter Jul 22, 2015 3:02 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 24, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    market cap is just under $8 million. The assets , if they were in LaJolla or Palm Beach, would be worth maybe $25 million. In Ohio they are probably not worth $8 million.

  • Reply to

    World class assets on the cheap

    by buyjunkselljewels Jul 23, 2015 1:40 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 23, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    Lots of assets are valued at a fraction of replacement cost: offshore drilling rigs, nuclear cleanup facilities, coal mining equipment, etc. The worth of an asset is the free cash flow it generates, not how beautiful it looks, or what it costs to replace. Lenders will likely flip the properties to someone like Blackstone to recover some portion of their hypothetical debt gone bad if that eventuates. The second mouse gets the cheese--- at a fraction of the cost. The CEO is operating under the "Field of Dreams" delusion: "If you build it , they will come". How's that been working out for him the last several years? Go look at the financials for the golf and related operations segment. It's not worth arguing about. Stock price is truth, and it is speaking volumes. It could be worse, he could be doing all of this in Indiana.

  • Reply to

    World class assets on the cheap

    by buyjunkselljewels Jul 23, 2015 1:40 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 23, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    All soon to be owned by the lender. Figure about two years from now.

  • Reply to

    Coming back to fill the gap @ 8

    by johnson.mike29 Jul 22, 2015 2:15 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 22, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    It's not their money.

  • Reply to

    There Goes $10. H&S Forming at $9.30?

    by hansy_burkhalter Jul 22, 2015 11:37 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 22, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    The acquisitions and new products better darn well work out or the company could be in deep, deep doggy-doo. They have been on a lackluster path since the new CEO took over. He gets two years as a honeymoon. No one is going to given him more than three, if he lasts that long.

  • Reply to

    Cash down, debt up, assets up

    by buyjunkselljewels Jul 22, 2015 2:07 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 22, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    But the assets are not making any money. Golf and related operations segment has been losing money. The CEO is bellying up to the bar for more of the same. He'll lose money in a more sophisticated way. Put it this way, if you were getting married, would you, even in your wildest dreams propose to your bride that you honeymoon in Northeast Ohio? Almost nobody vacations in Ohio. Golf vacations are Hilton Head, Kiawah Island, Florida, North Carolina, Palm Beach, Pebble Beach, San Diego. This company's biggest asset and biggest bet is in an area you can only use maybe 6-8 months out of the year. Doubling down on that is pure insanity and could kill the company. Institutions and retail shareholders are probably going to lose everything. The shame of it is that it is so damn obvious, just like building the injection wells in a documented earthquake prone area. The CEO has voting control, and so shareholders can only vote w/their feet. What do you think the have been doing? Look at the freaking stock price.This is mass exodus on a scale only tempered by the lack of trading liquidity in the stock. While the CEO was racing $9 million of debt, he should have raised a little more and just taken it private.

  • Reply to

    FVP Master Fund, L.P. Filing

    by stdvooh Jul 17, 2015 11:36 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 17, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    I didn't pull the $50 million value per rig from anywhere. I am saying I think that is the implied market value currently being inferred by the stock's share price based on those rigs delivering significant free cash flow over their remaining funded contract time periods, adding the cash on the balance sheet, and subtracting debt. The remaining value has to be rig value and any net working capital available. It is a rough guess. It is not meant to be true value. True value is only realized if the rigs are sold and an actual price is paid for them. The market can be right or wrong about implied value of the rigs and it may not equate to what you think what true value actually reside in the rigs. I'm open to alternative valuations as to what anyone else thinks the rigs are currently being valued at based on the current share price. True value probably lies somewhere between scrap value and several hundred million dollars value per rig. If the market is severely under estimating true value, the company should go private and buy the stock in cheap or sell the rigs for true value over implied market value amount. I suspect it would be near impossible to find a buyer in this market. That may change over time.

  • Reply to

    FVP Master Fund, L.P. Filing

    by stdvooh Jul 17, 2015 11:36 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 17, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    You could be right. The insider sell at $20 was a great tell. Maybe this is a great tell on the buy side, if you are right about them buying. But I still do not sense capitulation. You don't always get the capitulation washout, I'll admit that. And the rigs have to be worth something, just not sure they are quite worth the roughly $50 million each I am assuming the market is valuing them at (market value=the after tax free cash flow from the remaining contracted backlog minus net debt plus rig value-bit of back of the envelope I admit ). After 2017 the rigs may contribute $0 revenue for a long time. At some point, and we are getting close, the fine-grained analysis doesn't matter much. It simply becomes a call on whether the company survives or not. I worry the UK govt. will be reluctant to enforce field de-commissioning in a heavy-handed way while oil companies are suffering w/$50 oil. The govt. may not want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg as far as contribution to UK GDP . My guess is both an oil price rebound and actual enforced field de-commissioning will be a long term in the offing. Is it being too cute or too miserly to wait for the stock in the $3s? Tend toward the risk averse side of that question.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 16, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Long term you have a point. But do you realize how long it takes to build a highway system nationwide? You are talking a decade. In the meantime the government of China needs to use funds to prop up the Chinese market like the Fed has done for six years in the U.S. Also, car sales in China are on the verge of plummeting. The average Chinese has leveraged up to his eyeballs to play the local stock market. That de-leveraging will take years. Cycles come an go. There will be an upcycle phase again for oil. I won't argue about when that will resume. The stock prices will move higher ahead of that, but not before capitulation similar to what we had in the late 1980s. If you have a 10-15 year time horizon you might be ok.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 16, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Field de-commissioning is not a great driver IMO. Such work is a pure cost center for the majors generating no revenue and crimping their margins. In a world of $50/bbl. oil they will have to be dragged into the legal system by the U.K. government to force compliance. That's a tough decision when jobs are already being lost daily in the oil sector. What you have to hope for is the oil cycle finishing its downward phase before the rig life runs out on the rigs. That's a toss-up as the down cycle has a decade or more left IMO. The Saudis want to not only take out shale and fracking, but deep water drilling as well. At a price of $2-$4 per share I suppose you could own this stock in the same way you own gold as a hedge---a very small part of one's overall portfolio in case something blows up on the world stage. Otherwise the fundamentals are nearly non-existent.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Jul 16, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Not sure it gets quite that low, but that is splitting hairs. The real call was from $20-$22 down to $5. That said, the headline risk and tax loss selling potential could get you to that price. I'm watching the inch by inch progression lower 5-10 cents per share at a time on very small trades. I believe someone is working the stock lower hoping to get a large block capitulating at a really low price. I'm a little less price target oriented, and more willing to let the market volume (on a blow-out) signal an initial entry point. Mad money only, in the worst case the rigs will only have scrap value.

  • from 10 million units annually to 17 million units in the past six years. Talk about a fat pitch down the middle of the plate, a fair wind at your back, the road rising up to meet you. And they wiffed. GEEZUS, how do you do that?

  • Reply to

    How Long Will CEO sit w/$6 +Stock

    by roboklerk Jul 15, 2015 4:46 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Jul 15, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    For the 7th consecutive year beaucoup tax loss selling will abound.