Stock price seems to be saying the whole injection well thing is not going to be a big deal. But at the current price you are paying for the golf courses and related facilities and company headquarters and getting the entire waste disposal business for free IMO---at least on an asset value basis. Would be nice if they gave some guidance on the injection wells, because as is always the case on Wall Street, in an information vacuum, investors will assume the worst.
Expect this will get trimmed by holders until earnings are reported. There is a lot of doubt that these guys will produce after two underperforming quarters in a row. The COO stock sale in March was hardly a vote of confidence on the upcoming results. We'll see. It's the first full quarter under the new CEO's watch. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. Maybe he will wow.
by dipping in I mean selling stock they own in the company. their shareholdings appear to be just a source of funds as needed for living expenses.
There may be some fear that Ohio could ban fracking, not on a statewide basis (although I suppose that is a remote possibility), but on a well by well, or specific regional area basis. Again not sure if AWX's injection wells are in a sensitive fault-prone area or not. The company hasn't really provided any transparency in that regard. Really, they don't disclose much beyond the bare minimum required by the SEC as a public company.
Didn't mean cooked as in cooking the books. Meant cooked as in finished w/the whole insulin deal since they terminated their agreement for the supply of recombinant human insulin. From an accounting standpoint there is nothing to cook, they don't have revenues. Thought that was understood, but I perhaps should have been clearer nonetheless.
There might be a situation where certain fund(s)/institution(s) have to divest of a holding once an auditor issues a going concern explanation, although I am not certain of that. It will certainly give any fund or institution that was looking to invest, pause, whether in observance of a Prudent Man Rule, or just exercising an abundance of caution. That said, PESI has already obtained waivers of its loan covenants through the Q1 2014 and a more lenient arithmetic formula for the covenant requirement through the remainder of 2014. In short, their bank appears to be "working w/them". Secondly, after Enron, and the Lehman collapse of late 2008, auditors are going to be very conservative well beyond the first principle of accounting (i.e, when in doubt be conservative) in order to CYA--especially after what happened to Arthur Andersen. Third, insiders are among the biggest vested owners of equity in the company. Almost any corporate entity who has the government as its prime/dominant customer is going to come under extreme scrutiny, given the uncertain timing of government spending and Congressional gridlock. But now, w/a new budget approved including potentially more spending for clean-up, PESI should be in a better position. It sounds like they are close to cash flow break-even perhaps as early as the current Q2, and that they still have borrowing capacity. So, yes, the going concern explanation moves them higher on the risk scale and the stock has become even more speculative just by definition. But because some entities may pull back it also makes shares easier to acquire. A few days ago I could not get all the stock at $5.09 that I wanted. Yesterday I added at $4.27. It is very speculative, and still a small part of my portfolio. The risk is it goes to zero, the reward potential is also very high IMO. The bottom line may be that the government has a decision to make w/regard to the company's future.
Market is letting the seller exit about 40,000-50,000 shares per day at trickle-down lower levels each day. Expect that to continue until earnings are reported in early May. Someone wants out ahead of the report.
The market is ignoring any qualifying comments by management about a possible return to cash flow positive status in the final three quarters of 2014. The knee-jerk is that imminent danger is upon the company, but they have reached agreement w/their major banker and gotten waivers through Q1 2014, and re-negotiated their arithmetic covenant requirements to more lenient terms for the remainder of 2014. Seems not to matter. Shares limped further as soon as the 10K was filed. Added to my position today, but realize it is highly speculative.
then you'll see the message board light up, seeking liquidation of the company's assets. Only six months until tax loss selling kicks in. Doesn't look like any major developments will be announced before then. Still think they avoid a second reverse split, but could be liquidated before year-end, or horrendously diluted w/yet another offering.
Man, this thing imploded and the dude did a disappearing act. Wasn't he talking $30, and even as much as $50 by next year end? I guess there is no obligation to do a follow-up report, but you'd think....... The again, if he was just creating "the other side of the trade", we may never hear from him again.
Barron#$%$ the 3D printing sector hard again this weekend. They have found a weakness they are willing to exploit and will keep their knee on the jugular. Not sure if Citron or Tilson has come out negative again, but would not be surprised. These guys all saw 2000-2001 and late 2008- early 2009 and know the damage they can inflict. They won't let go until maximum margin call and fund redemption pressure has worked its way through.
Have to admit the stock is broken, doesn't matter why. It tried valiantly to hold $12 for several weeks, but you can only try so many times. $10 is next support.
Don't confuse brains w/the dumb luck of this simply being lumped in w/the 3D printing group. People saw the term "3D" and bailed.
Also, the 18 year shelf life is itself something of a moving target. The rigs will periodically go to the shipyard for refurbishment and upgrades further extending their desirability, workload capacity and shelf life. Plus, Awilco will have plenty of free cash flow to maintain a very strong dividend in addition to maintaining and upgrading the rigs. It is easier to maintain and upgrade two rigs instead of twenty just because of logistics alone and getting them in line to get to the shipyard for work. Pretty tough to go to a ship yard and say I got 20 rigs that need upgrading. One or two is fairly easy to accommodate, but even then you have to schedule well ahead of time. Rather have two rigs, keep them pristine, keep them highly desirable as gems of the ocean in demand by the oil companies, competing to time them up under longer term contracts. BTW new concerns over fracking and earthquakes (principally in Ohio, but likely to spread everywhere) is going to keep operators wanting a diversified source of oil/gas, as will geopolitics. The U.K. North Sea is still very desirable if even a depleting asset base. I'm hoping for a minimum 10 year stream of income from AWLCF. Really don't want to see them sell out, not even at $40 or $50.
drops that big have to be related to distributions, either dividend or capital gain. It probably signals that Fidelity sees major risk in the market across many volatile sectors and is reducing exposure after a good run in 2013. Many hedge and mutual funds are aggressively de-risking and de-leveraging. many have been caught offside, and despite paying lip service to having learned their lesson in October 1987, The Tech Bubble of 200-2001, and The Lehman Collapse of late 2008---well let's just say some thing never change. Every 5-7 years there is going to be a head-ripping decline that results in losses of 50% or more to many portfolios. Fidelity Biotech is down 25% in a little over a month, and it is just getting started. That fund looks like it did not have a distribution today, just a normal vanilla decline of over 3% for the day--the first of many yet to come.
Think it's the "3-mile rule". If the injection well is within 3 miles of a fault or seismic activity above a certain threshold, regulators can require seismic equipment be installed so they can monitor directly. If you get quakes, they can basically shut the whole operation down or prohibit drilling/injection indefinitely I believe. And the quakes don't even have to be very big or even felt by humans. Not sure if AWX's wells are in such a seismic or fault prone area. Like edado says, the limited partnership structure probably limits some upside of direct ownership by AWX, but also limits exposure in a negative sense.
My broker may have given me only part of the story, because I also think there is some minimum holding requirement to gain qualified status and only your broker would know that, not the company (Awilco). I'm guessing it's a two-step process where the company has to qualify as a qualified foreign corporation, and one's holding period has to be confirmed (only the broker would know that). Maybe that explains why some investors say they are getting qualified status and others are not. One shouldn't have to be a tax attorney to be an investor, sheesh!
OK spoke w/my broker. Broker indicates that it is not the brokerage firm that determines the status of the dividend as either qualified or non-qualified, but the company (in this case Awilco) itself. The company can also even change the status after the fact of their determination, which might generate the need for an amended filing, but that is driven by the company itself, not the broker. The brokerage firm has been given no indication whether the dividend from Awilco will be treated as qualified or non-qualified for the 2014 tax year for U.S. investors . The broker suggests emailing or contacting the IR dept. of Awilco for clarification and guidance. The broker believes it was classified as non-qulaified for the 2013 tax year.