Also flying trader, if the stock is still $11-$12 two years from now, there would be tremendous pressure to "seek strategic alternatives". I would not expect a company like Ariel to sit locked in a 12% position in what they expected to be an aggressive growth vehicle. That may not matter to you given your handle, and it is of course JMO.
Well, there is under promise and over deliver as the key number one component of any management's communication to investors and analysts. But you cannot set the bar so low as for someone to naturally ask why your gross margins are targeted to be lower in FY 2015 than FY 2013 when you have Helix as part of the revenue and profit stream vs. its negligible contribution two years earlier. It is supposed to be the main driver of the entire business going forward w/better pricing and better margins and market share gains. It certainly should have the capacity to overcome one "blow-out" quarter in 4Q of FY 2013 when everything went right--revenues, margin, mix, a huge new model introduction. I'm guessing a small dividend boost. Little downside from $11ish, modest to moderate upside--better if they beat. I was hoping for a stock that could double in three years (25% or better annual gains).
IMO it's like a $1 per share stock price gain annually, maybe a bit more. In other words low double digit percent including the modest dividend. That's okay, but not a powerhouse. It's okay because the strong cash position limits any downside. Better company to be CEO of than a shareholder of (suppose you could say that about any company). It's eggs w/a side of toast rather than eggs Benedict.
Yes, good quarter, but the gross margin guidance was less than robust. I wouldn't care about a 45% gross margin expectation if they were going to do $100 million in revenue next year, but they won#$%$ a plodder.
The moment they said 45% gross margin on the CC, the stock started to retrace the early gains from the market open.
But you need someone else to see that value. And you never should invest on the basis of expecting a takeover. What value exists in a new technology if it doesn't produce gross margin improvements (PRCP is projecting an annual gross margin equivalent or slightly below that of FY 2013)? Well the value that another party can bring to bear in terms of scale, speed to market, quicker platform to diversification, elimination of redundancies (levering your own salesforce, CFO, CEO etc.) and probably keeping the core tech guys. So yes you are right, but again someone else needs to see that value. If the technology is truly game changing someone should want it and know what to do w/it ,I agree. I will allow as PRCP management may be being conservative in their GM assumption, but you have to put it at least higher than the 46.1% recorded in FY 2013 is you are boasting a quantum leap in technology that will takeover most of your historic product offerings.
proly $15-$16. Thought they were replacing old management w/ a visionary young new management . They seem content w/modest/moderate expectations as long as they have an upward slope. Investors are not in this as a value proposition, they want growth. It's not a cash cow; it's a company w/new industry changing technology at the floor-shop level. They should be in the first or second inning of as long run. And they should be looking to "go yard" not bunting.
They need to sell the company to another company that can more effectively and more quickly drive the new technology, provide an immediate platform and capital for other industrial applications (like $100 million not $25 to $30 million), and provide the scale and redundancy efficiencies that would improve margins from the get-go.
Talking a target of full-year at 45% on a go-forward basis. Hell, they did over 46% in FY 2013 before Helix even hit the P&L. #$%$. I assume they are being conservative and putting up a number they can beat, but you have to have margins higher w/Helix than without it or why even bother w/Helix at all? Something doesn't jive here. I realize they had a monster 4Q in FY 2013, but now they have Helix. Is Helix just a product line that holds the line on gross margin? That doesn't sound too promising for a revolutionary quantum leap in technology. Plus like one (of only two) questioner on the CC said: you have to so something w/the cash on the balance sheet or return it to shareholders. Two questioners on the CC and one of them was the sell-side guy covering the firm.
I have a hard time believing even small accounts are that dumb. Not when the trades in question are both the last to be made AH and the first ones PM.(giving you something to think about overnite and trying to trigger sentiment in the morning). But you could be right, I'll grant. Like the insider sales, management retirements and bad prior quarters (all facts)---they are all open to interpretation until proven otherwise. Good luck.
P.S. They tried to paint it this morning again w/the first two premarket trades, but that likely won't hold. It could also be someone short hoping to limit their exposure and cover at the best possible level on the first few opening trades. You gotta try and knock it down premarket so you are not covering at $12 to $13.
That's an old game played, flying trader, and I suspect you are correct. You paint it at $10.90 AH w/a decline of $0.50 from the previous trade at $11.00, w/both trades coming on 50 shares and both trades being plants. You do it in a separate account. The next morning you come in hoping to buy a ton at $11.50 or even a bit higher. If anyone challenges you on it, you just say you had a chance to go over the numbers over night and changed your mind and became more bullish, or after the guidance on the CC you became more bullish. Realistically, I doubt anyone will be able to accumulate much of a large position at less than $12. As for backlog and bookings, they are not indicative of future results since backlog and bookings are a process and are occurring throughout any given quarter (despite having to be reported w/a static "as of" date at quarter end). A large order can hit anytime. A large order can be filled anytime. And a large order can be delayed any time. Backlog and booking were near record levels as I recall in fiscal Q1 and fiscal Q2 and EPS numbers in those quarters were, well, less than stellar. Wall St. estimates for both FY 2014 and FY 2015 are going to move higher after last night's report.
me too. BBQ chicken, baked beans w/bacon and corn on the cob for dinner. Homemade key lime pie (made w/fresh limes) for dessert. Washed down w/chardonnay and black coffee (Dominican Republic). At home.
Also embedded in the costs was the hiring (e.g. search?) expense for the new CFO, and maybe more than that. Without that nonrecurring cost the EPS would have been even a bit higher still.
The timing sure seems right. PRCP is in bit of disarray after two poor quarters. The former CFO and CEO just retired. With delays from customers, lumpy quarterly results, a very thin market cap that gets pushed around by both traders and MMs quite easily; all of that might argue shareholder value is better enhanced by giving current shareholders a premium, avoiding the volatility of earnings and stock price movement and placing the technology in larger hands that already serves a number of industries. Plus PRCP has been unable to get helix in place is size w/strong enough margins to even contribute to earnings meaningfully--so there could be execution issues at the company. Begs the question if the new CEO was brought in to dress up the company and help foster its handoff. Still seems a little strange in regard to the timing of the former CEO and CFO's departures, and why they chose to retire now. It has been one "you-know-what storm" after another since they left. Also, the guys on the BOD are in their 70s. Plenty of cash on PRCP's balance sheet make it an easy deal for FARO, which is also virtually debt free.
That was a great call hansy. IIRC first made the call about when the COO sold his stock. These executives need to understand the damage they can do.