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Intuit, Inc. (INTU) Message Board

roboklerk 118 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Feb 2, 2009
  • Reply to

    backlog

    by tblew May 6, 2014 10:32 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 7, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    I have a hard time believing even small accounts are that dumb. Not when the trades in question are both the last to be made AH and the first ones PM.(giving you something to think about overnite and trying to trigger sentiment in the morning). But you could be right, I'll grant. Like the insider sales, management retirements and bad prior quarters (all facts)---they are all open to interpretation until proven otherwise. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    backlog

    by tblew May 6, 2014 10:32 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 7, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    P.S. They tried to paint it this morning again w/the first two premarket trades, but that likely won't hold. It could also be someone short hoping to limit their exposure and cover at the best possible level on the first few opening trades. You gotta try and knock it down premarket so you are not covering at $12 to $13.

  • Reply to

    backlog

    by tblew May 6, 2014 10:32 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 7, 2014 8:09 AM Flag

    That's an old game played, flying trader, and I suspect you are correct. You paint it at $10.90 AH w/a decline of $0.50 from the previous trade at $11.00, w/both trades coming on 50 shares and both trades being plants. You do it in a separate account. The next morning you come in hoping to buy a ton at $11.50 or even a bit higher. If anyone challenges you on it, you just say you had a chance to go over the numbers over night and changed your mind and became more bullish, or after the guidance on the CC you became more bullish. Realistically, I doubt anyone will be able to accumulate much of a large position at less than $12. As for backlog and bookings, they are not indicative of future results since backlog and bookings are a process and are occurring throughout any given quarter (despite having to be reported w/a static "as of" date at quarter end). A large order can hit anytime. A large order can be filled anytime. And a large order can be delayed any time. Backlog and booking were near record levels as I recall in fiscal Q1 and fiscal Q2 and EPS numbers in those quarters were, well, less than stellar. Wall St. estimates for both FY 2014 and FY 2015 are going to move higher after last night's report.

  • Reply to

    Q3 numbers

    by creedheed May 6, 2014 4:18 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 6, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    me too. BBQ chicken, baked beans w/bacon and corn on the cob for dinner. Homemade key lime pie (made w/fresh limes) for dessert. Washed down w/chardonnay and black coffee (Dominican Republic). At home.

  • Reply to

    Q3 numbers

    by creedheed May 6, 2014 4:18 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 6, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Also embedded in the costs was the hiring (e.g. search?) expense for the new CFO, and maybe more than that. Without that nonrecurring cost the EPS would have been even a bit higher still.

  • Reply to

    Q3 numbers

    by creedheed May 6, 2014 4:18 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 6, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    Was hoping for $0.18 to $0.20. They did $0.27 ($0.26 fully diluted). The one analyst on the Street was estimating $0.20.

  • Reply to

    Rough earnngs season

    by creedheed May 5, 2014 5:00 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 6, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    The timing sure seems right. PRCP is in bit of disarray after two poor quarters. The former CFO and CEO just retired. With delays from customers, lumpy quarterly results, a very thin market cap that gets pushed around by both traders and MMs quite easily; all of that might argue shareholder value is better enhanced by giving current shareholders a premium, avoiding the volatility of earnings and stock price movement and placing the technology in larger hands that already serves a number of industries. Plus PRCP has been unable to get helix in place is size w/strong enough margins to even contribute to earnings meaningfully--so there could be execution issues at the company. Begs the question if the new CEO was brought in to dress up the company and help foster its handoff. Still seems a little strange in regard to the timing of the former CEO and CFO's departures, and why they chose to retire now. It has been one "you-know-what storm" after another since they left. Also, the guys on the BOD are in their 70s. Plenty of cash on PRCP's balance sheet make it an easy deal for FARO, which is also virtually debt free.

  • Reply to

    Here Come the $10s

    by hansy_burkhalter May 6, 2014 11:37 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 6, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    That was a great call hansy. IIRC first made the call about when the COO sold his stock. These executives need to understand the damage they can do.

  • Reply to

    Not Sure Those Injection Wells Work

    by roboklerk May 5, 2014 4:26 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 6, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    The two golf courses they own are probably worth $10 million if they were located anywhere except metal-bending Ohio, U.S.A. Put 'em in Long Island, Palm Beach or Newport Beach and those courses (and related facilities) plus cash on the Balance Sheet would be worth well over $5 per share, and you would be getting everything else the company owns for free. But then it's all about location location location when it comes to real estate (golf courses or anything else). It will be interesting to hear the new timetable for the injection wells when they report Q1 earnings within a week. They probably should not put a date on it, and just say it is in review.

  • Reply to

    Rough earnngs season

    by creedheed May 5, 2014 5:00 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 6, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Looks like the little guy getting scared and selling now, 100 or 200 shares at a time. They are the ones that usually make the bottom.

  • Reply to

    Rough earnngs season

    by creedheed May 5, 2014 5:00 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 5, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    The key for PRCP is to get the auto companies to view helix as a non-discertionary expenditure, a must-have technology that is requisite for remaining competitive in a very competitive industry. The key for FARO is to "absorb" PRCP before the auto companies realize that. FARO is flush w/cash and PRCP's technology is right up their alley w/only a minimum of overlap. I cannot understand why they are not there w/a bid right now to add in-line 3D measurement capability, and also w/ a platform to expand the helix technology to other industries. Seems like a no-brainer, BWDIK.

  • Reply to

    Not Sure Those Injection Wells Work

    by roboklerk May 5, 2014 4:26 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 5, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    Source: Live Science. Also picked up by Yahoo.

  • Big seismic conference on Friday cited something like a 15-fold increase in earthquakes in this country since the big push toward fracking and waste water well injection, w/ the latter being specifically cited as a problem. Seismologists pointed to a four well waste injection project in Oklahoma tied to earthquakes 30 miles away. Think they said more powerful than recent California quakes. They mapped the country w/red dots locating quake activity and Ohio was one of the states looking really pockmarked w/red dots. The risk is of course that state regulatory authorities take all this to heart and defer either (new) fracking or well injection activity for an indefinite period until they can understand what they are dealing with. Not sure how it all works out, but I do think this stock is stalled until those two wells begin work. JMO. Obviously the market has its doubts too as this stock is being avoided. Even if the wells do start work, it is only going to take one seismic event to put the kibosh on the whole deal--so i sure hope they know what they are doing.

  • Reply to

    They Have Cried Wolf on Helix

    by hansy_burkhalter May 2, 2014 4:41 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 5, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    In a nutshell.

  • Reply to

    Why NSPH is dropping?

    by stockman4u25 May 1, 2014 4:56 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 2, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    More undecided, mainly because there seems to be no hurry. The market in general has changed and become more dangerous IMO, particularly in the bio/biotech sector. Enteric could indeed be positive, but the slow progress on placements has me confused as to whether the right people are in place or the right business model is in place to take advantage of what should be a compelling technology. Something doesn't hang together here and I can't quite put my finger on it. The market is not allowing for any missteps or delays; it is punishing those harshly. Good luck. Will check back after the call. P.S. lots of small "bios" seem to be caught in a vicious cycle of one dilutive financing after another, often adding more and more warrant sweeteners w/each offering at successively lower prices.

  • Reply to

    Why NSPH is dropping?

    by stockman4u25 May 1, 2014 4:56 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 2, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    I have been really patient since exiting over $3 and have not re-entered. It is hard to know what price to re-enter due to two factors: 1. the potential impact of future dilutive equity issuance 2. Although it may seem a long way off, tax loss selling is now less than five months away beginning in late Sep/early Oct for most hedge and mutual funds which have an October fiscal year-end. Keeping powder dry until near year-end. Don't see much fundamentally happening before then to propel this higher. Verigene still taking way too long to gain adoption.

  • Reply to

    Man This Thing is Comatose

    by roboklerk Apr 30, 2014 10:49 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 1, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    The real problem is that they just damaged so much good will w/the market over the last six years. It is very hard to overcome a public taint. Ultimately, they will likely have to be sold to another company because a fair public valuation is going to be very hard to come by---no matter how good the results are and no matter a return to profitability. You might even see a piecemeal sale of the company, the sensor business, perhaps also the Predictor technology, and a retention of the remaining implant and injection molding business. The will have to be a little artful in increasing shareholder value and in effect bypass the public market's valuation yardsticks and realize the value through asset disposition, or sale of the whole company. JMO.

  • Just too much perceived risk into earnings on Tuesday evening. The stock is telegraphing possibly weak results or lukewarm guidance. Buying near-term puts for protection may make sense over the next three days.

INTU
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