But let's say for argument's sake the the de-commsioning work gets done right away. In todays drilling rig market wouldn't the rig be run at a rate close to cash flow breakeven? The company said their costs are the same as everyone else. That is hard to believe because they bought the rigs cheap and depreciation costs would be significantly less. But I suppose they are right about the "cash cost" to run the rig, it is about the same for everyone (crew cost, fuel, materials, etc.). I'm hearing rigs are starting to get let even below the cash cost to run them. Awilco has a special niche, but no oil company is going to agree to a decent rate when their brethren as getting rates elsewhere at or below cost. Everyone wants the market rate or will hold out until they get it or are forced to do otherwise. If they don't do the work, how aggressively will the U.K government force them to do it right now or very soon, and look like the schoolyard bully stomping on an industry now barely breathing?--I bet they wait and see if the economics of low rates work first. The stock is telling us something though.
Thought the company implied on the last CC there was really no mandated timetable for the work for de-comissioning to be done, or no teeth in the law. More that they were relying on the economics of lower rig rates, rig availability and U.K. government cost-sharing to incent the de-comissioning work. Good luck with that as oil companies cash flow is drying up, even if it makes great economic sense to undertake the work now. In answer to the question it sounded like they were not optimistic that anything could or maybe would be enforced by the government or no firm structure was in place to require it. Maybe I heard wrong. The U.K. government doesn't move fast on anything however, that I know.
What if you are just at the front edge of fear and a long way from capitulation? Volume says no panic yet despite the price drop, and many here are still quite bullish despite a drop from $26 to $8. You buy when the last bull sells.
And they are obviously in no hurry to get the year-end results out, so the seller is likely assuming the worst. Probably not a bad assumption.
The BOD is so concerned about the undervalued stock price, but ignores the fact that reporting his late (although still within the 90 day mandated disclosure date for year-end results) simply allows uncertainty to creep in.
We know how Wall Street and investors view uncertainty in a vacuum of news: "Why haven't they filed yet", "Will they have to file an 10K-NT for late filing"? Did the auditors find a problem"? "Do they have to restate anything from prior quarters or years"? "Do they have to take a write down"? Did they blow a financial loan covenant?" Did some negative intervening event occur"? "Why haven't they issued a earnings release date and CC info yet?" And so on. In the absence of news investors ALWAYS assume the worst. Just get the damn report out. They should know better and are getting what they deserve for foot-dragging.
Just take the write-off and get it behind them and leave it as part of 2014. They miscalculated/ mistimed, and got in at the top. It happens.
Shareholders should really hope the contract extension is NOT picked up by Hess. If it is, it would be at a price negotiated by the operator and Awilco. Do you really want the comfort of a 275 -day extension locked in at a price that might only be a bit above cash flow breakeven? Might be better to play a pat hand through December 1 2015, collect the strong cash flow and see what the price of oil and the market does? Then re-visit all of the contracting and/or various stacking options early next year. Buying time (275 days) at a bad price could be worse than warm-stacking or lukewarm stacking come December and waiting out the market. Awilco could handle the wait, for a few years if need be, in a worst case scenario . Other offshore drillers may not be so fortunate.
Normally that kind of exposure could help. However, it is clear that someone is intent on forcing every move higher back down, despite a plethora of good news, and sitting on this right now. Probably market maker(s) playing games with it. That's kind of the case w/most microcap stocks. All you need is one player to have an agenda. You couldn't get away w/that w/ a stock like AAPL for example where the large market cap and deep-pocketed investors prevent that from happening. Lots of guys out there looking to make a few hundred dollars a day on a basket of micro cap stocks---day after day.
I hate it, but that is probably the right call. Perversely, production will actually increase for all of 2015 and perhaps into 2016 even as oil price falls initially. In fact, the swifter the price falls, the more production will likely increase, at least initially. But the snap back will be bigger when it eventually comes. And the snapback will come earlier, the more swiftly the oil price declines.