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Intuit Inc. Message Board

roboklerk 98 posts  |  Last Activity: May 18, 2016 4:00 PM Member since: Feb 2, 2009
  • Reply to

    I have to think there is an end game here soon

    by chrismoore2525 May 16, 2016 12:16 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 18, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    What the hell are they waiting for then? The Annual Shareholders' Meeting in November? They have a majority now!

  • Reply to

    I have to think there is an end game here soon

    by chrismoore2525 May 16, 2016 12:16 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 18, 2016 3:15 PM Flag

    I agree there is an end game here.

  • Reply to

    I have to think there is an end game here soon

    by chrismoore2525 May 16, 2016 12:16 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 18, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    Revenues expanded nearly one million dollars sequentially in the latest quarter and yet the gross margin declined. They are in effect giving away product to survive. FARO and CGNX gross margins run from the high 50s% to high 70s% . The margins embedded in the highly touted backlog and orders for PRCP are, well, highly suspect. How can they be running gross margins nearly 30 to 50 percentage points lower than the competition despite a highly sophisticated state of the art sensor and software product line? That is simply put, nearly insane. A few points to incentivize customers or to reflect lower scale economies ok, but 30 to 50 percentage points lower? The customer is getting the product below net all-in cost. The CMM acquisition is an albatross that will ultimately choke them not save them through diversification. Doesn't matter if your addressable market doubles, triples, or expands a hundred-fold it you are essentially giving away product below net cost.

  • Reply to

    I have to think there is an end game here soon

    by chrismoore2525 May 16, 2016 12:16 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 18, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    Look at the gross margins, they are a company killer.

  • Reply to

    I have to think there is an end game here soon

    by chrismoore2525 May 16, 2016 12:16 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 18, 2016 2:36 PM Flag

    The institutional holders have waited too long to act, 12-18 months too long. The entire BOD was nearly voted out in November 2014. The impetus and appetite to initiate change was clearly there at that time. Now, any interested buyer is likely going to let this run its course and cherry-pick the pieces that remain, or do nothing and just absorb the market share left behind. FARO still stands to benefit the most.

  • Reply to

    Too much of a drop

    by chrismoore2525 May 5, 2016 11:43 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 5, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    BTW Chris, I think FARO in particular is going to eat PRCP's lunch. Customers have certainty FARO is going to be around for more than a couple more years and they should become the preferred supplier.

  • Reply to

    Too much of a drop

    by chrismoore2525 May 5, 2016 11:43 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 5, 2016 12:49 PM Flag

    The BOD will let it go to $0 before they give up control.

  • Reply to

    Has Apache Voided the Rest of Contract?

    by roboklerk May 4, 2016 10:42 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 4, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    I assume if Awilco has to fight this in court for an extended period (someone said Apache thinks it could take a year to get the rig into market ready condition and ,of course, Awilco doesn't agree, but Apache will drag its feet for a protracted period), Awilco really has no choice but to lay off all rig personnel while it fights Apache. Otherwise they suffer an unacceptable cash burn just to keep the rig crew on standby. The oil companies ALWAYS call the shots, Awilco will have to fight them in court to get the contracted payments they deserve. Luckily Awlico does have cash to pursue that, but court costs eat cash as well unless they can get Apache on the hook for those too.

  • Reply to

    Has Apache Voided the Rest of Contract?

    by roboklerk May 4, 2016 10:42 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 4, 2016 11:00 AM Flag

    It's pretty clear oil companies are going to use any pretext they can to abrogate their contract terms. I think it is an industry-wide issue. I suppose the assumption is court costs and/or settlement costs will be less than paying the contracted fees previously agreed to. Apache has a bigger bankroll than AWCLF. They can just wait them out.

  • Reply to

    Anemic @ 4.51

    by syng144 May 2, 2016 10:40 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 4, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Looks like a race to exit before the March quarter report after the close May 9 and the May 10 CC. The forward outlook could be pretty clear at that time. Not sure it will be a good outlook. The private market value of the company may be higher than the public value, but I am not sure if there will be a private buyer. No other public companies seem to be interested. Private equity would have to be sure it could re-build the company behind the scenes for a number of years and then bring it public again at a required rate of return. It's possible, but it could be a significant makeover from executive leadership, director oversight, strategy, marketing, pricing, funding, getting a new head of technology, etc. The technology is there, but not much else.

  • Are both rigs now indefinitely idle? What's the cost to cold stack two rigs?

  • Reply to

    Anemic @ 4.51

    by syng144 May 2, 2016 10:40 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk May 2, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    Yep. It could be in the death throes now, unless they sell the company. That possibility is growing dimmer by the day as no potential acquirer has stepped up to bid on the company, not even at $4.51 per share on the stock price. PRCP has no one that knows how to actually run a company. The BOD cannot implement any strategy because the business model itself is flawed. They have no one left that knows how to grow a company. They are trying to simply save it w/cost cuts. They are hamstrung by continuing negative cash flow from operations. They probably have no pricing power because competitors smell blood and are ready to deliver the final blow. Employees have no idea how much longer they will have a job. Insiders stock options are worthless and stock held by them nearly so. Institutional holders are complacent and ready to chalk this one up as an epic fail w/o much fanfare because they have well diversified portfolios, and whatever happens w/PRCP is merely a rounding error to them. Like you say another great day for the broad market--moving toward record highs. Thanks heaven's for diversification. If you were loaded on PRCP you could be wiped out. Buckle up for the March quarterly results. It could be a doozy.

  • Reply to

    Moab continues to load daily

    by enaa2268 Apr 27, 2016 2:25 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Apr 27, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    Even in a blow-out revenue quarter in June 2015, when they recorded $23.4 million of sales, pretax income was a paltry $0.5 million. Such is the impact of the lower margin CMM acquisition. There is nothing here to like as a stand alone company. They need to sell the technology and patents and return money to shareholders. Given the margins, I doubt anyone would want the order book or backlog unless they could affect some synergies or economies of scale w/their own existing business.

  • Reply to

    Moab continues to load daily

    by enaa2268 Apr 27, 2016 2:25 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Apr 27, 2016 4:06 PM Flag

    In the final analysis, Moab's stock purchases are only blunting the rate of decline. The stock is still going down. It continues to hit new lows. The company should have been sold a long time ago. A few of us have been arguing for that for a couple years when it was still double digits. The longer they wait, the less shareholders are going to get. If it ends up as a stand alone, what is great technology worth if it does not generate net income or positive cash flow? It's probably worth a fair amount in someone else's hands. PRCP has shown it is worth very little in their hands. The company cannot make a consistent profit even in the best of times for the auto industry.

  • Reply to

    Moab continues to load daily

    by enaa2268 Apr 27, 2016 2:25 AM
    roboklerk roboklerk Apr 27, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    They appear to be the buyer of last resort, although I believe a chunk of the recent purchases was stock put to them at a price of $7.50 that they had to eat. In the past, PRCP itself was active at repurchasing stock near $5, viewing that price as significantly undervaluing the company's technology and business. Of course they have squandered a majority of their cash on hand and need to hold close the remainder to fund severance payments and negative cash flow from operations. They won't be buying back stock any time soon. Moab will have to decide if it wants to be like the Saudi swing producer in the oil market, propping up the price while all the other large institutional holders benefit w/o doing anything themselves. If so they may have to stay active through probably a couple more difficult quarters at a minimum. However, most institutions are hesitant to acquire in excess of a 10% position in a company's outstanding shares (diversification issues and short swing trading rules rear their heads). If Moab really wants both Mr. Marz and the BOD out, they may have to consider if it makes more sense to let the stock run its course through a couple tough quarters prior to the Annual Shareholders Meeting rather than prop it up. That's a tough call to endure the likely pain of a share price decline from already really depressed levels to gain majority support to get rid of these guys. They should have called a Special Meeting and issued a proxy contest already, BWDIK. Every day nothing is done to remove the management and BOD is another hickey to the co.

  • Not too much of a surprise because for mid-water offshore work the tipping point is probably $75-$80/bbl., minimum. I can count the number of buy and hold investors I know on one hand: Warren Buffett, ah give me a minute to think of the other four. Sorry, couldn't come up with them.

  • Reply to

    New 52 Week Low Before the Close?

    by roboklerk Apr 26, 2016 3:20 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Apr 26, 2016 3:59 PM Flag

    Whoomp! there it is. Pusillanimous PMs getting exactly what they deserve. Hey, it's not their money. Going to feel like an eternity between now and the earnings release date, an eternity.

  • Reply to

    New 52 Week Low Before the Close?

    by roboklerk Apr 26, 2016 3:20 PM
    roboklerk roboklerk Apr 26, 2016 3:34 PM Flag

    Or as Johnny Most would say: "fiddling and diddling".

  • You would think there must be support at some price. You would be wrong. The current management and BOD structure all but assures that. You can feel the nervousness over that May 10 "earnings" report. It's palpable. In the meanwhile all the large institutional holders are doing their best Nero impersonations.

  • roboklerk roboklerk Apr 26, 2016 11:30 AM Flag

    The industry PR you are most likely to see is the metastasizing emissions scandal for the auto manufacturers. It could be one of the top 5 business stories of 2016. As for PRCP, they could simply be collateral damage as their customers face the mounting distraction. Scheduling new 3D sensor and software installation probably isn't going to be at the top-of-mind list of things w/which to deal.

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