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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

rocketjock1 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 9:22 PM Member since: Mar 9, 1998
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  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Oct 24, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    My theory for the poor sales in the U.S. is that Abstral really had an unlevel playing field to deal with when it was first marketed by ProStrakan. Before the TIRF REMS was enacted by the DEA some of the older TIRFS could be sold without a REMS at all. You can see how this would negatively affect Abstral sales because why would a doctor want to go to the trouble of getting certified and registering for the REMS if he could prescribe another product without that hassle? So naturally, ProStrakan couldn't compete and so Orexo cancelled the license agreement and started looking for another partner. Before Abstral was licensed to Galena, the DEA issued the TIRFS REMS, which forced all TIRFS into the REMS. Now, the playing field was leveled. Unfortunately, Subsys was approved and marketed just as the TIRFS REMS was enacted and was quickly adopted as "the best in class" immediate release fentanyl product. Galena was not ready to re-introduce Abstral into the U.S. market into 18 months later which gave Subsys a huge head start. In Europe, Abstral lacks competition because Subsys is not approved there.

    I expect over time that Abstral will take a bigger bite out of Subsys's market share but physician's seem slow to move away from what they have already been prescribing. Insys also has a much larger sales force than does Galena and that has to be a factor as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Oct 24, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    Not really. The analyst that I have relied on in the past for information is now more focused on covering Orexo's new flagship drug and doesn't provide channel data for Abstral any longer. Given Schwartz's lowered guidance on Abstral, with top end revenue expectation for the year now at only $10 million, my guess is that the net revenue growth since last quarter will be essentially flat. So I'm not expecting more than $2.0 to 2.2 million in net revenue.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Poll: Percent chance of approval?

    by pday76 Oct 16, 2014 10:38 AM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Oct 16, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    On average, drug applications that make it to the submission phase are approved 80% of the time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IMS week ended 10/3/2014

    by sharonconk Oct 10, 2014 10:05 AM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Oct 10, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Thanks Sharon. Solid numbers. Should get a nice pop once the market calms down.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Oct 7, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    I think the decline in SP can be linked to the transparency on PRESENT enrollment provided by Galena. Now that they've made it clear that enrollment won't complete until January and interim results won't be available until sometime after that, I think many are investing their money other places until GALE approaches milestones that have the potential to move the price upward.
    Since I am patient, I will continue to accumulate shares below $2. Should be plenty of opportunity between now and the end of the year. Tax loss selling and possible secondary offering (or at least speculation of one) should present additional opportunities to get cheap shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Oct 1, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    How long does the FCC have to issue a decision on TLPS?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Yesterday's Comments by FCC Chairman Wheeler -

    by montauk Oct 1, 2014 1:51 PM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Oct 1, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    So why is the stock down?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Once the FDA approves Prurisol for psoriasis

    by georgejjl Sep 26, 2014 4:56 PM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Sep 28, 2014 10:55 PM Flag

    Enbrel treats psoriatic and rheumatoid arthritis very effectively. Will be tough for Purisol to crack that market.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Sep 10, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    I'll let you all in on what I've known for awhile. The delay in enrollment completion is due to the conflict in the Ukraine where 10% of the trial participants were planned. Two clinics in Donetsk and one in Sevastopol have either suspended or withdrawn from the trial. Galena has screened enough candidates to replace trial participants lost but it will take a little extra time. Assuming these clinics served the majority of eastern Ukraine then 5% or 35 participants need to be replaced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rocketjock1 by rocketjock1 Sep 8, 2014 10:50 PM Flag

    Just saw my first Belviq commercial during the first quarter of the Cardinal/Chargers Monday Night Football game! Nice to see Eisai spending money for prime time advertising.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Neuvax +Herceptin on NBC in WA

    by rocketjock1 Sep 6, 2014 3:19 AM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Sep 6, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    The header date says September 3rd. The "sign of spring" comment at the end is a clue that it may be a rebroadcast but even so it is a positive sign that independent trial administrators want to get the word out about the promise of this treatment. This is legitimate testimonial from heathcare professionals on a national broadcasting affiliate...no dream team faux advertising involved.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Lead investigators for the Neuvax with Herceptin phase 2 trial at Providence Medical Center in WA were on KING5 NBC news affiliate discussing how promising the Neuvax vaccine is.

    Find it by searching Providence Regional Cancer Partnership Tests New Breast Cancer vaccine

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Revenue up. Earnings down due to increased R&D for commercial UAS. That is exactly what investors should want to hear. I'll be buying more when bottom is in.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rocketjock1 by rocketjock1 Aug 30, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Does this company ever pay one?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Aug 22, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    D25 you have been listening to AF for too long. Historically, oncology drug development that has made it through phase 3 trials have had only a 35% chance of eventual approval by the FDA. This type of failure rate is very expensive for the developers of these drugs as the trials are usually very large and take several years to complete. There is a paradigm shift happening among these drug developers to do exactly what Galena did to set up the Neuvax PRESENT trial. That is, combing through phase 2 data to find responders and designing their phase 3 trials around this intent to treat population. Galena is really ahead of the game and what has been pooh-poohed by Feuerstein is now becoming the standard way of conducting trials.
    I recommend that all interested parties search and read the Elizabeth Cairns article on the MAGE-A3 trial available on EP Vantage. If you were a doubter on the validity of data mining the subgroup of responders then this may change your mind.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CEO fired it appears

    by homebuilder_watcher Aug 20, 2014 9:40 PM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Aug 20, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    Hard to say. Given that this is occurring just after conclusion of the internal investigation it could leave some investors with a perception that the firing is an admission of some wrongdoing....or at least gross mishandling of the situation.

    However, those that sold out earlier in the year due to loss of confidence in Ahn's management may see this as a positive and decide to buy back in now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Astral sales came out of 1 territory

    by chriswong746 Aug 20, 2014 11:56 AM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Aug 20, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    What lead are you talking about? I asked for a link to the information that you stated that you found on the internet but you've provided nothing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Astral sales came out of 1 territory

    by chriswong746 Aug 20, 2014 11:56 AM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Aug 20, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    Taunting people doesn't go far toward building credibility, Chris. If you want to help, provide some search criteria please. I like to think I have above average search skills but I have found absolutely nothing that supports what you are claiming.
    Also, canning the sales force would be completely counter to Galena's business plan and I don't see that happening regardless of the success of Abstral. Galena has already licensed one other product for their sales staff to start marketing at the end of this year and I don't believe that they are finished adding products to their arsenal. They'll probably add one or two others before Anagrelide CR and Neuvax are ready for market,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Aug 18, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    This "subgroup" that you are trying to trivialize is a market that is worth twice that of Herceptin's. That is $12 billion a year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Phase 3 Results??

    by gofurself30 Aug 17, 2014 11:53 AM
    rocketjock1 rocketjock1 Aug 17, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    Final results in 2017. Median point of phase 3 enrollment will end up being about November of 2013. If phase 3 follows same rate of recurrence events as phase 2 then Interim results should be available end of this year (December to February timeframe). Keep in mind that the longer we have to wait for interim data the better the chances that Neuvax works. That is because Neuvax success would mean fewer events from the vaccine arm so it would take longer to get the requisite number of events to trigger the interim results as these would have to come from the control arm.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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