Go to their website and read the fleet status report. You can figure out what you think the earnings are going to be. Oddly enough, this is one of the most transparent companies I have ever invested in. Yet we seam to have opinions all over the place. FWIW, I am buying today.
You have way over simplified this argument. First off, not all oil is alike. Saudi crude can not be refined by refiners set up for WTI grades, without significant costs. Also, many long term indexed crude deals are already in place with domestic producers. Even if Saudi payed US crackers to take their crude, they would be physically and contractually required to crack us production. Also, lets talk about getting Saudi crude to a US refiner like Tesoro in North Dakota.
Thank you for the reply. I have looked over the Contracts with DRAX, and backed in my own value for RTK, and I can't see how its below $2. It looks like they should clear .20 without RNF. Here is a company with 500% growth and a PE under 10? That is without RNF. With RNF, their PE is more like 5.
I don't understand how RNF can be up 5% and RTK be down yesterday and today. Does the market look at the pellet business as a liability?, or is the fertilizer business over bought? We have got to be getting pretty close to a negative value on the pellet side? Seems a long RTK short RNF postion would be a winner. Oilly you seam to have a handle on this, what is going on hear?
I hope your right.. I rode it up last year. I would like nothing more than to repeat last year. I just don't see anything, short term, on the horizon to move it anywhere but down. I wish I was wrong.
Look, I don't want to sound like a #$%$ or something, but there is ZERO reason to buy this stock until earnings. It is going to go down at least another dime. Profit booking caused the stock to drop is a joke. It is 50% what it was 6 months ago. The total lack of news from this company states clearly that the top has no idea what they are doing. This is an easy short for another 10%.
I think the stupid people are the ones losing money in the stock market right now. I think the smart ones are making money. Those are the ones that understand that peak Oil and global warming are dead. The smart ones see Natural Gas under 2.8 and headed lower. You may be brilliant, but your also emotional, and therefore, you are going to watch FSLR go down everyday for a long time.
The option action now looks like this is destine to be in the $15 range by 15-feb. I know you are right about the company, its a great opportunity, but don't get suckered into calling a bottom here. The trend is your friend, and you should be long near term puts and you should also feel comfortable buying leaps today. Leave the emotions behind, just make money off the suckers who are selling now.
The right of way is 80 feet during construction and 40 after. The pipeline is 12 feet deep. You can do anything to the property you want except build a permanent structure. i don't care what you say or what you read, I worked for the construction company that bid it. The company just finished the tri star pipeline for enterprise products that basically followed the same route. The average compensation was $40/ foot.
So that is a near 50% return on value, plus a 10% dividend. It also comes out to around .16/share for RTK. It looks like the market thinks the CS guy is an idiot. I think he is right. I bought today, and will continue.
Did he explain to you how he was going to get his oil to places like Mandan North Dakota where Tesoro is operating one of the largest refiners in the US? Did he explain how much more expensive his oil is to refine than what is coming out of the Permian? I suspect he was addressing those that know little to nothing about the oil industry.
I suspect the 75% is based on the original cap ex expectations. With the Cap Ex cut, production numbers will be down. A lot of the producers I work with are going to end up being short oil over the next 12 - 18 months. Someone is taking a huge hit on these hedges. I am thinking its the transporters (fed ex, etc.) and the airlines (Southwest etc.) The market has some of these producers WRONG. Your going to see some really good numbers from some of them that are well hedged. They are cutting expenses, not producing as much, and selling out of their hedge books. One of my customers hedge book is now marked at 1.3X book value. They can sell their hedge book, buy all the stock, pay off all the debt and still be in the green. There stock is down 70%. Market is STUPID wrong on this.
Why do you say this when you know their production for the next 18 months has already been sold at hedged prices north of $80? Todays prices has NO effect on near term earnings. Also, if crude really collapses, that will just accelerate the drilling decline which will cause the back end of the curve to go so far in contango that companies like WLL will not miss a beat. I don't think you understand how the oil market works. This rapid decline is actually good for producers that do not sell into the spot market.
If your so sure oil is going down, why don't you just go buy SCO or DTO and forget about EXXI. When I look at what is going on in Russia and Venezuela, I can't figure out how oil is not sky rocketting. Looks like no one will be investing in several oil markets including Ira. There is also a big strike in Africa. We could realistically see a 30% decline in world wide production if a few short months. Everything everyone knows about oil is currently reflected in its price. You think its going down, I think its going up.
Happy Holidays Donovan.
You asked for my bottom guess, so here it is -. $52. And it happens Before Jan 1. SCO and DTO must be in your portfolio. Don't short the producers. M/A is on high.
What is happening in our world right now is that bond holders are getting nervous across the board. They are shorting the #$%$ out of equities as a hedge against BK. The reality is not so bad, as most of these producers, including DNR are very well hedged over the next couple quarters. Expect cap ex cuts across the board, but I would not expect div. cuts from most. Oil will rebound just as fast as it collapsed but not before end of March (unless Israel does something). Buy the refiners today, they are printing money. There is going to be a pretty good shake out on the transporters over the next few months. US Production probably peaked this month, and I expect a RAPID decline. We will lose 30K BBL's per day starting Jan 1. It won't take long to shake out the excess. The biggest loser will be the rails, solar and wind energy companies. You can feel pretty safe shorting NG now too. It has got to go down at least another $1.
All my opinion, and i am usually wrong.