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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

rockingoranch 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 4:33 PM Member since: May 12, 2008
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  • Reply to

    continued downward drift

    by reed992 Aug 21, 2014 2:54 PM
    rockingoranch rockingoranch Aug 21, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    based on how it has acted over the past 3 years, it should get to about 9.60 but not less than 9.20. Then it should follow the same pattern it has and close the year between 16 an 17.

  • Reply to

    DNR Conf call?

    by space_goat_one Aug 6, 2014 9:55 PM
    rockingoranch rockingoranch Aug 15, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Bob
    Its been a long time. I was worried you left us at $13. On the trend, I wanted to say the stock price trend was down. Historically, it hits bottom in September, and rallies back 50% by January, or at least that is what it has done the past 3 years.

    I can easily justify $16 by EOY, which would continue that trend. Lot of analyst have oil prices dropping through end of year. Being a producer, I don't see the glut the desk guys see.

    Always appreciate your insight. Glad to see you post.
    Jeff

  • Reply to

    DNR Conf call?

    by space_goat_one Aug 6, 2014 9:55 PM
    rockingoranch rockingoranch Aug 13, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    I am playing it to drop into the low 9's now. Still like it long term, but the trend is down, and DNR already said Delhi production is in decline.

  • Reply to

    DNR Conf call?

    by space_goat_one Aug 6, 2014 9:55 PM
    rockingoranch rockingoranch Aug 12, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    Phil Rykhoek - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director
    Well, we don't expect Delhi to change too much in the third quarter. It did slip just a little bit, but it's kind of been kind of flat really for the last 6 months. We don't expect that to change. Do keep in mind there is a payout coming. And we think that's going to occur probably early fourth quarter or -- and so that's going to be the biggest change. So you'll see a drop, and then post-payout, I think going in 2015, we actually would expect it to grow a little bit. But you're going to see -- keep in mind, there's a dip coming in the fourth quarter.

  • Reply to

    The long hot quiet July/Aug

    by vikingnick2000 Jul 9, 2014 6:29 PM
    rockingoranch rockingoranch Jul 15, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    Hi Donovan,
    Hope all is well with you. I don't have much to add to your observations. i have been meaning to waltz over to the court house and see if I can find out anything, I have just been too busy making a living. The last time I ran the numbers, it seams I figured we are now in the revisionary interest period, and I suspect at some point this quarters numbers will have to be restated. The Delhi numbers are public now, you can get them off the LA production database. The production is increasing as expected. As far as a slow down in CO^2 injection, that is only in a small portion of the field, and I doubt it is significant a couple years down the road. I am hoping DNR incorporates a chemical surfactant, but so far they have not. It would make sense in those 'sensitive areas'?

    As far as GARP, yes there is competition, but I would not be too concerned about it. Especially GE, I hope I don't po anyone, but GE has a track record in the oil field. Like look at Hydril. They used to be the best, now, well they got GE'ed.

    EPM is no longer my largest holding though, for whatever it is worth, I hold more RTK now, it's valuation overtook my EPM last month. I still have many many thousands (more than average volume) though, and I don't need the money anytime soon. So if your from Seeking Alpha, you may want to take that in to consideration before you run off an short these guys.

    As far as the preferred, I am out. I had a ton, but the thought of them cashing me out in June at $25 scared me off.

    That is all I know. Still think we see $18 in December. But then again, I have NEVER been right.

    God Bless anyone who read that whole thing
    Jeff

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rockingoranch by rockingoranch Jun 13, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    I sure don't know anything.....

  • rockingoranch by rockingoranch Jun 4, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    Has anyone been able to find any court records of the DNR/EPM lawsuit/filing.

    I found

    Plaintiff: Deborah Donoghue
    Defendant: Daryl V. Mazzanti

    Filed in New York.

    and

    McCarthy v Evolution Petroleum Corporation over Delhi royalties.

    I can't find any records of a filed lawsuit. Did they file in Harris county?

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