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Oclaro, Inc. Message Board

roger.berry 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 7, 2014 1:11 AM Member since: Sep 3, 2012
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  • roger.berry@btinternet.com by roger.berry Oct 7, 2014 1:11 AM Flag

    15 billion? In Korea! Lumpy even if it's 1.5 B

  • Reply to

    Puffnstuff needs to relax!

    by u12thinkso Sep 4, 2014 7:15 PM
    roger.berry@btinternet.com roger.berry Sep 5, 2014 3:43 AM Flag

    What you say is both lucid and plausible. There are some interesting things at play here not least the buy out of Vi with effectively the money they have been paid by BTH and the cancelation of the $143M

    The $50M Bond once cancelled will allow a buy back with cash available which will be around $100M. A take back to private may prove too expensive but it would unshackle the owners from Public Shareholder responsibilities an the costs involved.

    The historic levels are $40 pre Vi and a retrenchment of that pricing is not totally our of the woods in the next year to 18 months, however it will have to reflect the net loss of value through the Vi roll of the dice.

    I guess true value per share ex Vi will not be clear until it has washed through.

    I am in at $12.99 so some way to go yet and the short appetite will be reduced and continue a net reduction. The manipulation to get here could have come from anywhere but the Vi buy in/out has an interesting net effect. If the Vi machine preforms strongly in the next 24 months we will perhaps have a clue as to what really went on. It could have been a very clever move.

    My biggest question is the how much cash damage was sustained through the Vi contributions and then losses plus the over priced (with hindsight) buyout costs. What was it worth then and now and the exchange of cash in the interim that will give us a viable value which will be off the $40 but $20 is not impossible. (he says fingers crossed)

  • roger.berry@btinternet.com roger.berry Aug 7, 2014 2:31 AM Flag

    depends who bought the stock

  • Reply to

    A question for shorts

    by onej723 Aug 5, 2014 6:38 AM
    roger.berry@btinternet.com roger.berry Aug 5, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    But to buy it back they would have to table an offer buying back on the market would increase the price back to... who knows? If it is insiders that are allowing the stock to short then that might be an issue as they will never lose they will hold and hold ongoing up or down. I had thought it was a play to create a reverse bid from Vi which is possible too IMHO. If Vi gets back and we know how quick that can turn then the whole game is altered. The ramp up of Vi agents then the ramp down, the rumour that agents paid to join which is straight to the bottom line all those resulted in the hype on value of the stock. all this is opinion only.

  • roger.berry@btinternet.com by roger.berry Aug 4, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    Guys (and girls?) the Q2 was not a disaster only a few mill loss the prognosis on Vi is OK (ish) providing then turnaround is a success which it should be. HLF continues to make money and the Stock Price has grown since the bas days so again not all bad.
    Why is this so poor, has to be a level of manipulation and poor sentiment. Is this business worth more than $100M yep IMHO and according to the books, is it generating cash yep EBITDA says so. Will it go bust doubt it so where are we?
    No dividend which is a good call from the Board (the first of few) is there an option to renegotiate Vi purchase,maybe? Clearly the performance has tanked since the criteria were met but... there is a legal option maybe? Or perhaps a moral one or one that includes a BTH stock option at a pre crash level?
    An announcement would help if BTH do break up which is possible then there is value at around $200M which is twice this price. The short action is like a very big fish in a small pond there is not much stock free to trade so who is providing the short ammo? Someone or somebody who does not mind the decline in price but will take the longer term rental knowing the value is there when realisation hits. If you are long (forever) who cares about the stock price so long as you know its value, you can rent it out all day!
    Think about it and well maybe just maybe the small % of stock traded will or rather must improve if the short position is to be liquidated one day soon... please!

  • roger.berry@btinternet.com by roger.berry Jul 27, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Now only 4500000 short of the 6900000 float so a 15% fall in short position probably
    sensible looks to have found the bottom ... I hope

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