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Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate Message Board

rogerabc100 107 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 4:43 PM Member since: Nov 27, 2005
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  • in next weeks. Gov will not accept its bids in the future auctions

  • From The website of Hanwha Solarone:
    __________________________________________________________________

    "Hanwha SolarOne is moving fast to become a global leader in the solar industry, delivering complete solar solutions for all.
    Hanwha SolarOne is a leading provider of global energy solutions, optimized to meet the demands of the 21st century energy customer. From quality crystalline silicon, solar module assembly, as well as project development and financing, Hanwha SolarOne offers a fully integrated solution. This means tangible value for our customers:
    Control of the supply chain means we can deliver the highest quality products, at very competitive prices;
    Our vast resources mean investment in technologies that optimize product performance and reliability;
    Our project development, engineering, and financing expertise means we’re positioned to deliver a faster time to revenue."

  • 1) President of HSOL discussed details of the 950 MW including the 700 MW deal during the CC of Q4 ( see transcript of Q4 discussion)

    2) The initial PR of 700MW MOU on 1/16/14 was very detailed . This news was also discussed in the Korean & Chinese magazines

    3) The Chinese partner of the 700MW deal also announced the MOU in its website

    4) HSOL executives are aware of consequences of not finalizing the deal in approximately 60 BUSINESS DAYS. They will try hard to finalize the deal this week by Friday

    5) HSOL executives wish to base the future of the company on honesty and good relations with shareholders & WS . They need good relations with WS and shareholders for future ATM fund raising. Last ATM was prematurely terminated at $21M , much less than the planed $70M .

    The 60 BUSINESS DAYS period end at 4/4/2014 because of the Chinese new year holidays and 28 days of February

  • THIS IS FROM LAST PARAGRAPH OF THE CONFERENCE CALL OF Q4 TRANSCRIPT.
    ANY DAY HSOL SHOULD FINALIZE THE 700 MW AND MAYBE ANNOUNCE NEW STRATEGIC DEALS
    _______________________________________________________________________
    "As you probably know the Chinese government is aggressively pushing development of a distributed generation so our early success is positioning us well here. There are still some obstacles to overcome in the China market so in order to strengthen our networking within the country, we have established a several key strategic partnership already had several others remain in active discussion. These partners provide help in obtaining permits customers for more module and EPC expertise and potential co-investment in IPT project. To-date, this network provides us with a potential pipeline over 950 megawatt. We intended to own and operate projects going forward as the returns and opportunity are effective within a initial target of $15 megawatt to 200 megawatt annually in the future."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 2, 2014 2:21 AM Flag

    It is my error. That Chinese billionaire does not buy HSOL stocks.
    Sorry about my mistake.

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 1, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    Here are my 20 rational reasons to buy:

    1) Gross margin of 16% is highest in the Chinese solar sector
    2) Price/Sale of 0.41 is lowest in the healthy companies of the Chinese solar sector
    3) HSOL is flagship of Hanwha the fifth largest company in Korea with $89B market cap.
    4) Only 9% of HSOL panels are shipped to USA & ITC decision will be a minor issue for HSOL
    5) CEO promised high profitability in 2014 and is aware of its nano market cap. HSOL will try to raise the stock price for a future ATM
    6) 700 MW deal is about to be finalized and announce next week
    7) HSOL is growing fast and announcing new megaWatts deals almost every week.
    8) HSOL has excellent quality reputation because of its involvement with German Q Cell and German engineer quality.
    9) HSOL is like Samsung in year 1990. Nobody knew about Samsung in 1990.
    10) HSOl had net income growth of 42% & revenue growth of 32% in 2013 (per WSJ)
    11) With all the above feature HSOL yet has a nano market cap of $260M
    12) Using P/S of 0.8 of TSL and P/S of 1 of CSIQ , HSOL should have market cap of $494 and $620 respectively
    13) Short were surprised by the profit margin of 16% in Q4 and now they doing damage control to cover and go long
    14) HSOL announced more efficient ingot and wafer facility further reducing cost
    15) HSO has huge synergies with Q CELLS (technology exchange/supply chain/tolling)
    16) HSOL had QoQ Shipment growth of 25% and target gross margins of 15-20% in 2014
    17) HSOL is very active in Chinese market (14 GW market) and its better pricing provides more attractive opportunity to compete with other solar Chinese
    18) EPC business of HSOL is well-positioned for Chinese and Japanese local governments due to its relation with German Q-cells. Japanese like the German quality
    19) HSOL recently established 950 MW strategic partnerships to enhance its competitive position in China and Japan
    20) HSOL is developing IPP projects to either sell or operate with 400 MW annual goal in the future

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 1, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    They are in short , long strategy trade. They are short HSOL and long some other Chinese solar stock (TSL, YGE or SOL) . To make the trade profitable , they must suppress their short position

  • MM ( mainly CS) want the HSOL stock to be depressed but the CEO and CFO of HSOL want the pps to go up to have headroom for future ATM. In this battle between MM and HSOL , I am sure that HSOL executive will win. MM have the money to manipulate the stock price , but HSOL executives have the decision making power and the ability to produce PR,s

    Any rational response?

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 1, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    I received same info about a week ago.

    There is a big conflict between the MM and HSOL executives. MM wants pps to be depressed but HSOL executives want the pps to go up. In this battle , I think the CEO of HSOL will win very soon.

  • This is from Emerging Market website as of 4/1/14 today. The article mentioning Bloomberg as its source. Google it and see by yourself
    _______________________________________________________
    Why Solar Stocks Are Up Today?
    by Chad Roskin / April 1, 2014
    ........
    ........
    Hanwha Solarone Co Ltd (NASDAQ:HSOL) and ReneSola Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:SOL) were also on the rise, at last check, on Tuesday.

    Bloomberg reports “A Hong Kong real-estate tycoon has spent the past year accumulating stakes in failing solar companies, piecing together what may become the biggest collection of photovoltaic factories in the world. Zheng Jianming, also known in Cantonese as Cheng Kin Ming, has spent or pledged about $533 million to buy assets that at their peak were worth almost $20 billion, according to regulatory filings in the U.S. and Hong Kong, where he has a home and office. Zheng’s deals would help China consolidate factories responsible for more than half the world’s panels. The solar industry is emerging from a two-year slump that was triggered in part by expanding production capacity among Chinese suppliers. The oversupply of panels ate into margins and eroded profits, and helped push some companies into bankruptcy.”

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 1, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    At some point MM will cover and will go long for a very long time.

  • Now P/S of HSOL is 0.4. So 2.9 divided 0.4 and multiplied by 1 is 7.25

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 1, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Calculating by P/S of 1 , HSOL should be $7.5 stock

  • when MM eventually lifts thier pressure on HSOL.
    By a day ago everybody on the msg board of KUTV was complaining and cursing the MM for manipulating KUTV stock price to low level of $2.

  • AS you know I am very active to bring justice to manipulation case of HSOL by its MM. 3 days ago I sent a detailed letter to Manhattan U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara and provided some evidence of insider trading by a specific hedge fund which is MM of HSOL. I hope that he will have time for investigating my letter.

    __________________________________________________________________________________

    From CNBC news today:

    Bharara's office has already indicted at least one significant player: SAC Capital, the Stamford, Conn., hedge fund that pleaded guilty late last year to securities fraud after a rash of current and former employees were charged with insider trading.

    More recently, Bharara and his colleagues at the Justice Department have tangled with JPMorgan Chase, which in November paid a record $13 billion to settle charges that it misled investors about the quality of certain mortgages. Other cases against the large bank are still pending.

  • Here are the signs that the PR is imminent this week:

    1) President of HSOL discussed details of the 950 MW including the 700 MW deal during the CC of Q4 ( see transcript of Q4 discussion)

    2) The initial PR of 700MW MOU on 1/16/14 was very detailed . The Chinese partner of the 700MW deal also announced the MOU in their website

    3) HSOL executives are aware of consequences of not finalizing the deal in approximately 60 BUSINESS DAYS. They will try hard to finalize the deal this week

    4) HSOL executives wish to base the future of the company on good relations with shareholders & WS , because they need good relations with WS and shareholders . They will not disappoint the shareholders

    The 60 BUSINESS DAYS period end at 4/3/2014 because of the Chinese new year holidays

    You will regret for selling your shares before the PR on final 700MW deal

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Mar 31, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    "In China, the leading country in terms of global demand for solar panels, a new policy was recently introduced. Under this policy, a FiT of 0.90-1 RMB (about 14¢-17¢) is offered to utility scale project owners. JinkoSolar , Solarone and Yingli Green Energy have already taken advantage of this lucrative offer. Yingli recently demonstrated the IRRs it can achieve in China."

  • "We think the solar industry is in the midst of a historical turnaround, and market dynamics are changing fast. In late 2010, the solar industry tumbled into a chasm, and now it is climbing out. We think that in the mid- to long term, the solar industry will grow tremendously.
    Most demand for solar panels today comes from utility scale projects. Different countries around the world have various renewable energy policies in place. In the past, companies looked for subsidized markets, as the cost of generating solar power was higher than the local selling price of electricity. Today, in most parts of the world, solar power has a lower LCOE than local electricity prices. The situation in the U.S. is such that in most states, a solar project can be implemented and generate power in a lower cost than the retail price of electricity. It is true that coal and natural gas have a slightly cheaper LCOE than solar power, but if the externalities are taken into account (coal is estimated to cost the U.S. an additional 9-27 cents of external costs), it is clear that solar power is a favorable source of electricity."

  • Reply to

    20 Rational Reasons To Be Bullish On HSOL

    by rogerabc100 Mar 27, 2014 1:25 PM
    rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Mar 30, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    950 MW deal paragraph from last page of the transcript of Q4 conference call
    From last page of the transcript of Q4
    _______________________________________________________

    "As you probably know the government is aggressively pushing development of a distributed generation so our early success position us well here. There are still some obstacles to overcome in the China market so in order to strength our networking within the country, we have established several key strategic partnership already and have several others remain in active discussion. These partners provide help in obtaining permits for more module and EPC expertise and potential co-investment in IPT project. To-date, this network provides us with a potential pipeline over 950 megawatt. We intended to own and operate projects going forward as the returns and opportunity are effective within a initial target of $15 megawatt to 200 megawatt annually in the future. "

  • From last page of the transcript of Q4
    _______________________________________________________

    "As you probably know the government is aggressively pushing development of a distributed generation so our early success position us well here. There are still some obstacles to overcome in the China market so in order to strength our networking within the country, we have established several key strategic partnership already and have several others remain in active discussion. These partners provide help in obtaining permits for more module and EPC expertise and potential co-investment in IPT project. To-date, this network provides us with a potential pipeline over 950 megawatt. We intended to own and operate projects going forward as the returns and opportunity are effective within a initial target of $15 megawatt to 200 megawatt annually in the future.

TAO
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