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Atlantic Power Corporation Message Board

rogerabc100 107 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 4:43 PM Member since: Nov 27, 2005
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  • In Solar Revolution, fund manager and former corporate buyout specialist Travis Bradford argues--on the basis of standard business and economic forecasting models--that over the next two decades solar energy will increasingly become the best and cheapest choice for most electricity and energy applications. Solar Revolution outlines the path by which the transition to solar technology and sustainable energy practices will occur.Developments in the photovoltaic (PV) industry over the last ten years have made direct electricity generation from PV cells a cost-effective and feasible energy solution, despite the common view that PV technology appeals only to a premium niche market. Bradford shows that PV electricity today has become the choice of hundreds of thousands of mainstream homeowners and businesses in many markets worldwide, including Japan, Germany, and the American Southwest.Solar energy will eventually be the cheapest source of energy in nearly all markets and locations because PV can bypass the aging and fragile electricity grid and deliver its power directly to the end user, fundamentally changing the underlying economics of energy. As the scale of PV production increases and costs continue to decline at historic rates, demand for PV electricity will outpace supply of systems for years to come.Ultimately, the shift from fossil fuels to solar energy will take place not because solar energy is better for the environment or energy security, or because of future government subsidies or as yet undeveloped technology. The solar revolution is already occurring through decisions made by self-interested energy users. The shift to solar energy is inevitable and will be as transformative as the last century's revolutions in information and communication technologies.

  • Reply to

    4 reasons for replacing the CEO

    by rogerabc100 Apr 15, 2014 10:22 AM
    rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 15, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    The fifth reason:
    5) CEO failed to have good relations with WS and analysts. The new CEO should have better relations with WS

  • 1) Improving profitability of HSOL
    2) Failure to meet the 60 days of 700MW MOU
    3) New business model of IPP needs a different & better CEO
    4) HSOL is flagship of Hanwha Group & as such needs to have higher MC than $220M

  • "We acknowledge that near term fundamentals in China could remain challenging and concerns over policy uncertainty remain the biggest near term risk to solar stocks. Some of the momentum drivers such as consensus estimate revisions could remain a headwind to the group in the near term, but we expect stocks to settle down once further clarity on Chinese policy emerges in late Q2 timeframe.

    We believe the Chinese government is likely to fix the current DG policy later this year, rush in markets such as the US could keep pricing relatively stable, capacity utilization rates are picking up and some companies are running at nearly 100% utilization rates."

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 14, 2014 2:16 AM Flag

    "Solar is now cheap enough that it competes with oil, kerosene, diesel and LNG in developing markets and yet is still small enough that it cannot disturb pricing for energy in any market," Bernstein Research said in a note earlier this month.

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 14, 2014 2:12 AM Flag

    sach

    have you received a response from IR?

  • Has solar power’s day in the sun arrived?
    Leslie Shaffer | Writer for CNBC
    7 Hours Ago
    CNBC


    Sunday, 13 Apr 2014 | 9:20 PM ET
    Some analysts are viewing solar power as a potential disruptor to the energy market amid falling costs. CNBC's Asia Squawk Box team discuss.
    Solar power was once derided as a pipe dream and many industry players have floundered, but while the use in this renewable energy remains tiny compared with fossil fuels, it may be poised to completely reshape the energy market.

    "Solar is now cheap enough that it competes with oil, kerosene, diesel and LNG in developing markets and yet is still small enough that it cannot disturb pricing for energy in any market," Bernstein Research said in a note earlier this month.

    With the sun accounting for only 0.17 percent of the global energy supply in 2012, any losses for global energy players are just too small to notice, but that may begin to change, Bernstein said.

    "Solar can simply get bigger and bigger," it said. "Since it is a technology, it will get even cheaper over time. Fossil fuel extraction costs will keep rising," it said.

    Once solar begins to displace a material share of the fossil fuel supply, energy-price deflation would be inevitable, Bernstein said, although it added, "even on an aggressive view, this could take the better part of a decade."

    Power plants in California, Germany and Australia – places which have significant solar installations – are already starting to feel the effects, it said.

    Because solar generates electricity during the day, it reduces peak power demand from non-renewable sources as adoption increases, Bernstein noted. "Demand during what was one of the most profitable times of the day disappears," it said.

    .............................................................
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  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 13, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    They disappointed me , but HSOL maybe negotiating the terms with SOC and the Chinese investment company. The trend is SOLAR UTILITY EVERYWHERE IN THE WORLD AND IN CHINA TOO. So maybe HSOL made mistake by indication of "withing 60 days" and they absolutely have very bad IR department. Maybe they dont care about the pps .

  • Grid Edge Live: A 21st Century Energy Revolution Is Here

    Jeff St. John
    April 11, 2014

    One of Germany’s largest utilities decided to embrace renewable integration last fall, not because of a shift in its climate change strategy or a push to reduce its carbon footprint. It was simply a matter of economic survival for RWE.

    The massive growth in customer-owned solar photovoltaics is turning entire neighborhoods in Germany into net grid exporters on sunny days. That’s killing the margins for traditional power generators like RWE. Some argue that the media's use of the term “utility death spiral” amounts to little more than fear-mongering, while others in the industry believe that the free fall is already starting to happen.

    “I grant [that] we have made mistakes,” RWE's CEO Peter Terium said after dismal 2013 financial results. “We were late entering into the renewables market -- possibly too late."

    Germany is hardly the only place where distributed energy is transforming the energy landscape. Solar PV is putting stress on the grid and on traditional utility business models in Hawaii and California. In Japan, the shift in the national energy mix is a response to the country’s post-Fukushima energy-constrained reality. In grid-challenged countries such as India and Brazil, microgrids and affordable renewables could be a path toward reliable electricity for hundreds of millions of people.

  • US utility Georgia Power has launched a 495MW solar energy request for proposals following unanimous approval by state regulators.
    Interested bidders must submit proposals by 30 April to independent evaluator Accion Inc. The Georgia Public Service Commission expects to award contracts by 16 December 2014.
    The RFP is split into two parts. A 70MW tranche is open to 1MW to 20MW solar projects, which are to come online in 2015.
    Utility scale projects may submit bids to a 425MW tranche. Some 210MW is to be in service by the end of 2015 and 215MW by the end of 2016.
    “Solar power continues to make enormous strides in Georgia,” said commissioner Lauren McDonald, Jr. “Since the projects must be located in Georgia, this solar initiative will have a positive economic impact on Georgia.”

  • Remember that HSOL has not announced cancellation of the 700MW MOU

    "I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else."

    Winston Churchill

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 7, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    No I don't believe everything I read. But these Korean are very ambitious and you must admit Korean have the highest IQ according to Google. If you put together , 1) Very rich Hanwha parent , 2) High IQ Korean engineers and 3) German engineering R&D , you may start to believe them

  • From The website of Hanwha Solarone:
    __________________________________________________________________

    "Hanwha SolarOne is moving fast to become a global leader in the solar industry, delivering complete solar solutions for all.
    Hanwha SolarOne is a leading provider of global energy solutions, optimized to meet the demands of the 21st century energy customer. From quality crystalline silicon, solar module assembly, as well as project development and financing, Hanwha SolarOne offers a fully integrated solution. This means tangible value for our customers:
    Control of the supply chain means we can deliver the highest quality products, at very competitive prices;
    Our vast resources mean investment in technologies that optimize product performance and reliability;
    Our project development, engineering, and financing expertise means we’re positioned to deliver a faster time to revenue."

  • 20 Rational Reasons To Be Bullish On HSOL
    1) Gross margin of 16% is highest in the Chinese solar sector
    2) Price/Sale of 0.29 is lowest in the healthy companies of the Chinese solar sector
    3) HSOL is flagship of Hanwha the fifth largest company in Korea with $89B market cap.
    4) Only 9% of HSOL panels are shipped to USA & ITC decision will be a minor issue for HSOL
    5) CEO promised high profitability in 2014 and is aware of its nano market cap.
    6) 700 MW deal is about to be finalized and announce next week. HSOL has not cancelled the deal
    7) HSOL is growing fast and announcing new megaWatts deals almost every week.
    8) HSOL has excellent quality reputation because of its involvement with German engineering (Q cell).
    9) HSOL is like Samsung in year 1990. Nobody knew about Samsung in 1990.
    10) HSOL had net income growth of 42% & revenue growth of 32% in 2013 (per WSJ)
    11) With all the above feature HSOL yet has a nano market cap of $210M
    12) Using P/S of 0.8 of TSL and P/S of 1 of CSIQ , HSOL should have market cap of $694M and $720M respectively
    13) Hanwha parent is a rich company which in 2014 receives $820M cash from building a city in Iraq
    14) HSOL announced more efficient ingot and wafer facility further reducing cost
    15) HSO has huge synergies with Q CELLS (technology exchange/supply chain/tolling)
    16) HSOL had QoQ Shipment growth of 25% and target gross margins of 15-20% in 2014
    17) HSOL is very active in Chinese market (14 GW market) and its better pricing provides more attractive opportunity to compete with other solar Chinese
    18) EPC business of HSOL is well-positioned for Chinese and Japanese local governments due to its relation with German Q-cells. Japanese like the German quality
    19) HSOL recently established 950 MW strategic partnerships to enhance its competitive position in China and Japan . (700MW of 950 MW is not finalized yet)
    20) HSOL is developing IPP projects to either sell or operate with 400 MW annual goal in the future

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 7, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    I am confident that, in the end, common sense and justice will prevail. I'm an optimist, brought up on the belief that if you wait to the end of the story, you get to see the good results of your investment analysis.

  • I was absolutely wrong in my last post. But I am absolutely convinced the reason thay passed the 60 days after the 1/17/14 initial announcement is due to technical issues with their new SOC partner. 700 MW based on 0.8/watt is a $560M deal . As such it takes more than 60 days to finalize the deal . The final PR could be either tomorrow or any day this week.

    And remember, they are not talking about a tiny 7 MW or 70 MW deals. HSOL is talking about a monster deal of 700 MW which has a value of 250% of HSOL market cap. When the final 700MW deal is announced, a 50% jump is likely considering that HSOL is at very depressed level of 2.6

  • I don't lose my hope even HSOL went down 35% in 2 weeks. There are 5 reasons a PR of final 700 MW deal is imminent any day this week:

    1) President of HSOL discussed details of the 950 MW including the 700 MW deal during the CC of Q4 ( see transcript of Q4 discussion)

    2) The initial PR of 700MW MOU on 1/16/14 was very detailed . This news was also discussed in the Korean & Chinese magazines

    3) The Chinese partner of the 700MW deal also announced the MOU in its website

    4) HSOL executives are aware of consequences of not finalizing the deal . They will try hard to finalize the deal this week just not totally depress the stock.

    5) HSOL executives wish to base the future of the company on honesty and good relations with shareholders & WS . They need good relations with WS and shareholders for future ATM fund raising. Last ATM was prematurely terminated at $21M , much less than the planed $70M .

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 3, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    There also the issue of balance sheet debt of about $750M. This is the main reason this stock is down 30%

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 3, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    HSOL executives wish to base the future of the company on honesty and good relations with shareholders & WS . They need good relations with WS and shareholders for future ATM fund raising. Last ATM was prematurely terminated at $21M , much less than the planed $70M .

    The 60 BUSINESS DAYS period end at 4/4/2014 because of the Chinese new year holidays and 28 days of February

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Apr 3, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Tiny $250M market cap for a company that plans to be absolutely the global leader of the global solar industry

    From The website of Hanwha Solarone:
    __________________________________________________________________

    "Hanwha SolarOne is moving fast to become a global leader in the solar industry, delivering complete solar solutions for all.
    Hanwha SolarOne is a leading provider of global energy solutions, optimized to meet the demands of the 21st century energy customer. From quality crystalline silicon, solar module assembly, as well as project development and financing, Hanwha SolarOne offers a fully integrated solution. This means tangible value for our customers:
    Control of the supply chain means we can deliver the highest quality products, at very competitive prices;
    Our vast resources mean investment in technologies that optimize product performance and reliability;
    Our project development, engineering, and financing expertise means we’re positioned to deliver a faster time to revenue."

AT
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