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Aeterna Zentaris Inc. Message Board

rogerabc100 112 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 14, 2014 11:04 PM Member since: Nov 27, 2005
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  • Dan Fitzpatrick - EVP and CFO ( from Q1 transcript)

    Thank you, operator. Thanks everyone for your participation today, hopefully today’s additional disclosures provide you with some additional clarity, again we appreciate everybody’s understanding for our inability to speak to any of the accounting issues. We’re working extremely diligently to try to close the 2013 financials, complete the audit and get our 10-K filed and as soon we do we hope to provide some additional clarity around the accounting and also then provide potentially some internal goals and some guidance for you. Again thanks for your time today, and look forward to talking to you soon, thank you.

  • See Q1 transcript in Seeking Alpha
    _________________________________

    We would like to note that based upon our current estimates, we believe that we have sufficient cash and cash equivalents to fund our projected 2014 guarantee payments under the PEAKS Program and the 2009 RSA in working capital needs without having to borrow any additional amounts under our credit agreement even if the proposal sale leaseback transaction does not close. Of course were prepared to answer any additional questions related to the 2009 RSA and future cash payments that you may have in the Q&A session.

  • See the Q1/2014 transcript in seeking alpha
    ________________________________________________________
    Based upon the current projections including estimated default rates, student loan recoveries and the asset liability ratio requirements, we expect to pay approximately 116 million to the PEAKS Trust in the second to fourth quarters of 2014 related to our guarantee obligations. We believe that in 2014, the company’s leverage ratio will require that the PEAKS Trust maintain a higher asset liability ratio. In order to increase the PEAKS Trust asset-liability ratio in the required levels, we will need to pay additional amounts under the guarantee. These additional amount as well as potential payments related to the guarantee of the interest of senior debt and the fees and expenses in PEAKS Trust are the basis for the estimate that we will pay approximately $116 million in the second to fourth quarters of 2014. These projected levels of guaranteed payments will reduce the principal balance of the senior debt resulting in an estimated net balance of approximately $96 million as of December 31, 2014. We believe this lower outstanding principal balance would have the effective in reducing amount of interest payable on the senior notes that the senior debt and producing some of the fees of the PEAKS Trust and as a result we will reduce the amount of payment, that we would be required to make to the Trust.

    As a result we project that we will not be required to make any payments to the PEAKS Trust in 2015 to 2019 related to our guarantee obligations. We project that we will pay approximately $28 million to the PEAKS Trust in early 2020 related to our guarantee obligations primarily to pay off the balance of the PEAKS senior debt on the maturity date. Based upon the current estimates and after the projected payments that I just reviewed, the balance of the PEAKS senior debt will be zero on January 27, 2020.

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Sep 5, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    At this price there is way more realistic potential upside than there is downside. With 48% of float shorted, any good news, and there is potential for a lot of it in the coming 60-90 days, could send the stock on a major run

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Sep 4, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    200m cash plus 120m property minus worst case 100m debt equals at least $220m equity

  • At this price there is way more realistic potential upside than there is downside. With 48% of float shorted, any good news, and there is potential for a lot of it in the coming 60-90 days, could send the stock on a major run

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Sep 4, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    The for-profit sector can play a useful role in helping meet Mr. Obama’s goal of more higher education for more Americans. Not only do they account for 20 percent of the associate degrees granted in the United States but they also serve poor and working-class students who have little chance of entry into traditional higher education. Consider, for example, that 31 percent of the nation’s African American college graduates, and 28 percent of Hispanic graduates, came from for-profit schools in 2012-13 (the latest year for which data are available). The for-profit sector has shrunk under the weight of attacks of recent years, and over-stressed community colleges cannot fill the gap. If the gainful employment rules are promulgated as has been proposed, opportunities for non-traditional students are sure to become even more limited.

  • The delay in filing their financials is related to PEAKS program. ESI is working hard on receiving SEC guidance on how to account for PEAKS and then will be filing proper financial requirements are required by SEC. IR officer says filing should be this week

  • Mr. Modany began his career with a National accounting firm where he worked in the audit/financial consulting division and was consistently rated as one of the top performers in the local office. During his tenure he served as the Sr. Auditor In-Charge for the two largest audit engagements of the Pittsburgh office. Mr. Modany served as the Chairman of the Board of ITT Educational Services Inc. from February 1, 2008 to August 4, 2014 and as its Director from July 25, 2006 to August 4, 2014. He served as a Director of Cerebellum Software, Inc. from October 2000 to May 2002 and of USA Clean, LLC from October 1998 to September 2000. He obtained his Bachelor degree in Accounting (with additional program focus in Finance) from Robert Morris University (formerly Robert Morris College-Pittsburgh, PA) and is a Certified Public Accountant.

  • This deep fear of ESI investors is not funded

  • A rise back up into the $40-45 range to where ESI was at the start of the year is not out realm of possibility in the next year should the financials get cleared up, a new CEO gets hired and another buyer is found for the properties.

  • Reply to

    10 REASON TO BUY ESI BELOW $10

    by rogerabc100 Aug 29, 2014 9:25 PM
    rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Sep 3, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    At this price there is way more realistic potential upside than there is downside. With 45% of float shorted, any good news, and there is potential for a lot of it in the coming 60-90 days, could send the stock on a major run

  • Government should not hold for-profit colleges to a higher standard

    By Editorial Board August 28
    There should be no tolerance of programs that are unscrupulous in how they use taxpayer-funded student aid or prepare their students for careers. But Obama administration’s proposed approach essentially singles out the for-profit sector and applies arbitrary debt-to-earning metrics that many public and private nonprofit institutions would be hard-pressed to meet. While the standards would apply to all career-training programs, the for-profit sector would be most affected since its degree programs would have to be in compliance but degree programs offered by public and private nonprofit institutions would not.

    The for-profit sector can play a useful role in helping meet Mr. Obama’s goal of more higher education for more Americans. Not only do they account for 20 percent of the associate degrees granted in the United States but they also serve poor and working-class students who have little chance of entry into traditional higher education. Consider, for example, that 31 percent of the nation’s African American college graduates, and 28 percent of Hispanic graduates, came from for-profit schools in 2012-13 (the latest year for which data are available). The for-profit sector has shrunk under the weight of attacks of recent years, and over-stressed community colleges cannot fill the gap. If the gainful employment rules are promulgated as has been proposed, opportunities for non-traditional students are sure to become even more limited.

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Aug 30, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    There is a real shortage of electronic and mechanical technician all over California. Good technicians are hard to find in south California. I know that we try to find them for our department every day. Closing ITT by EOD would be a disaster for the future of electronic manufacturers and metal processing companies.

    In Germany and Japan the government finance 100% of education of technical schools like ITT. In US the government is threatening to close ITT. Maybe this is the reason, sought California's roads have 90% German and Japaneses cars and few American cars.

  • Reply to

    10 REASON TO BUY ESI BELOW $10

    by rogerabc100 Aug 29, 2014 9:25 PM
    rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Aug 30, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    CORRECTION OF #4

    "4) After COCO shutdown , DOE can NOT afford to shutting down another large colleges institution as ITT. Shutting down COCO has caused significant disruption & unemployment for more than 100,000 students and employees.

  • 1) The fact is ESI in not at any significant danger at this time of losing government funding. As funds continue to come in without delay the stock will rebound.

    2) The delay in filing their financials is related to PEAKS program. ESI is working hard on receiving SEC guidance on how to account for PEAKS and then will be filing proper financial requirements are required by SEC. IR officer says filing should be this week

    3) Should DOE decide to withhold funding for 21 days, ITT is in the position financially to withstand the delay in funding

    4) After COCO shutdown , DOE can afford to shuting down another large colleges institution as ITT. Shutting down COCO has caused significant disruption for more than 100,000 students and employees.

    5) ITT in addition to sitting on over $200M in cash is sitting on real estate worth at least $119M. That means they have more cash and assets than the current valuation of the stock. This is an absolute bargain at these prices.

    6) the fact that the CEO is leaving is a positive step that will allow ITT to bring in someone with more knowledge and experience work through the issues facing them at this time.

    7) A rise back up into the $40-45 range to where ESI was at the start of the year is not out realm of possibility in the next year should the financials get cleared up, a new CEO gets hired and another buyer is found for the properties.

    8) At this price there is way more realistic potential upside than there is downside. With 45% of float shorted, any good news, and there is potential for a lot of it in the coming 60-90 days, could send the stock on a major run

    9) At these levels every worst case possibility except bankruptcy has been factored into the stock price.

    10) ITT is mainly educating technicians and there is severe shortage of technicians as reported by Boeing , WSJ and other magazines. DOE can not afford closing ITT and cause ever larger shortage of technicians in US

  • rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Aug 28, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    But at least the uncertainty will be over. From some reason shy sounded happy , maybe because they finished the job of restating

  • I called (317-706-9200) and spoke with the investor relation. She said Q2 earning and all the restated financials will be reported Friday morning. She sounded happy and did not answer other questions.

    I have a bad feeling about the earning reports

  • Reply to

    Email from Solarone's Paul Comb

    by goodwin_da Aug 4, 2014 2:51 PM
    rogerabc100 rogerabc100 Aug 25, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    I believe you that you received email from Mr. Comb because I also received email from him. I asked my son to email him and he also received email . He did not answer all our questions. But he said " Q2 results will surprise investors". He also said Q3 results will see strong recovery. Apparently he is not concerned about FD

  • Solar panel shortage looms even as manufacturers invest in production

    by Laura Lorenzetti AUGUST 19, 2014,

    Solar panel adoption is supposed to increase as much as 29% this year, which has top manufacturers and installers anticipating a drop in availability of panels. This would be the first such shortage since 2006 when the nascent solar energy industry was just taking hold, reported Bloomberg News.

AEZS
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