I doubt that the hedges in place are at 100 bucks as claimed but I do think they are higher than oil will be selling for come Jan 2016.
Anyone who buys this stock now had better be looking for no more than a 10% from 2016-2019 after that who knows.
If oil stays low 10% would be great if it goes up to 80 bucks then a buck a year dividend may be possible for 2016 to common shares and falling there after as production drops off each year.
Next quarter will at where this one is given the subs will eat the difference again. After that only hedges will save and if oil oil goes back up. We could see .25 cents a share this year as oil has dropped 50% and production falls.
Once subs get into the game 40 cents a year for 2017 if oil stays at 50 bucks and if it goes to 80 could see 75 cents.
Production will drop and the subs come in 2016 and the price of oil is the wild card. Anyone who thinks that 30% dividend is down the road past the next dividend is sadly mistaken.
My guess 1.80 for this quarter and the next 3 this year.
I hope I am wrong and I hope oil rebounds to at least 80 bucks.
but it seems most of the cuts in oil productions is coming from the USA and off shore production plans. THat will be enough to balance out supply and demand by year end but lets face it the oil market is crooked to the core so supply and demand is only an excuse to price oil not the reality of the market price makers.
Hey rami be sure to tell us what you buy in at lol. About time you saw the LT value of FRO maybe you covered your shorts and now want to put on long pants.
play tow you say we have a "supply glut" 5% more production than demand is hardly a "glut" and it will NOT take 18-24 months to correct that. The US oil production will be cut a lot as the "frackers" have already stopped at these prices. Deep sea drilling which produces huge oil finds and daily production is also already being cut back. OPEC countries of the middle east can by turning a value shut down production or increase it. Unlike the USA they do not have to drill to increase. The middle east nations can make a lot of money at 50 bucks a barrel just not as much since less is coming from a straight line production number. One more thing where you are wrong the "Plateau" in oil producers will come in 2015 not 16. Oil wells decline naturally in production and without new wells to take their place the production will tumble down very soon. Some like those of the Balkens will see a drop in 6 months as those wells come in huge and drop off and they are fracked. No new wells and no fracking unless they can make money and at 50 bucks the deep balkens wells cost too much to drill and frack.
Clearly the tanker market is benefitting from storing oil. My guess is that the EU and the UK are buying and storing all they can at these prices. Cheap oil and protection from Russian oil domination both. Soon the storage facilities will be full then what? The tankers will be resupplied as long as the price of oil does not jump back up to the 80--90 look for oil to level out in the 70's is my guess. STill too cheap for many US producers to go hog wild as they have been doing making Saudi happy and American big oil as well.
Think Tankers as primary storage to hold up the tanker price and the need to move the oil from S. AMerican and middle east to ASIA and some to EU and UK. Oil will return to higher prices but not until the geo political card and the Big OIL card have been played and prizes claimed.
jamisher99 You seem to want to be a non free trader when it comes to globalist oil industry or do you actually think that Big American Oil Co. are not in bed with OPEC? If you think Obama had any hand in how fast the price of oil dropped then you clearly do not understand the oil business. The pipeline or lack of it did not cause the drop nor will finishing it make oil go up like magic.
You are correct that this is not about supply and demand as supply was barely 5% over demand when all this started and oil has corrected over 40% in price. It is true that the price of oil hurts Russia worse than the US and Iran as well but Iran is making money at 50 bucks just as is ALL middle east producers.
Saudi and their Big Oil American partners in the world oil market have declared war on small E&P companies and are out to destroy the shale oil business or send the message that they can repeat the oil price fall anytime they wish.
Why do you support a tarriff on oil and not all the other Industries that American Business have sent to Asia?
I will join you in a total return to tariff's and quota's on ALL thing that was once made in America and now are filling the Walmart stores with made in China on them. Good luck finding anyone that will run for president saying they will do that. The GOP is totally sold out on Globalism and has been for years and the Demo party leaders are also Globalist so they will be no help in the white house by either party. Money controls the white house and no GOP is against Globalism and no Demo will be able to find money to run if they come out anti Globalist. Oil is a national defense matter but so is steel and a merchant marine both of which are almost totally gone in the USA today. The EU is storing oil like crazy during this cheap price and once their storage facilities are full the price will start to correct. Big oil will buy out the LSTMF of E&P and control production and location.
blackgold the question is who and why would anyone buy any assets from them when they can get them in a BK sale at a lot less price.
I will ride them down as I have little left to lose now and my only hope is that when oil comes back I can find a gain to offset this BK loss.
The CEO is still taking his fat check as are the rest of the Big boys stopping that would help cash flow but that is not going to happen is it. lol
rami rami rami it is up over 4% in one day do the math 25 more days like this and it over a double on your money. I do hope you sold your shorts and went long. Over 3 bucks and no news out to support the price other than the FACT that the rates are 87,000 for VLCCF and 47,000 for suez. Cash flow is king.
Lake it is not that hard to "KNOW" what God thinks when it is written down for you to see. The sermon on the mountain IS WHAT GOD THINKS. That was what my post was about.
Beyound that I claim no knowledge into the mind of God.
The bible which you do not believe is the mind of God revealed to mankind. Much is debatable but when Jesus says love your enemies, turn the other cheek, take care of widows and kids how dumb do you have to be not to understand the mind of God? You may reject the book as you do but for those of us that do not reject it knowing the mind of God when it comes out of the mouth of the Son of God is not hard. Doing it is however another story.
The good folks who are bible thumpers in Miss might want to beat up on Homosexuals and abortion and wave the Bible as their authority but when they take food stamps away from children they have in fact hit themselves in the face with the Bible. We do not have the right to "pick and choose" what we choose to obey. Jesus never said do not use the Gov to feed hungry children nor to put a roof over their head nor did he forbide the Gov. from taking care of widows or others who are helpless and without families who can take care of them.
Just where in Darwin's writing of the strong are mandated to survive at the cost of weak do you get your idea to be a supporter of the weak? You do not follow and even stand against your belief by caring for the weak as it messes up the divine order of Mr. Darwin's idea of evolution. You are no different from a bible thumping right winger from Miss who says they obey the word of God and then wants to deny the poor help or medical care by the Gov. The fact that it saves them tax dollars only shows that they do not love their neighbor as they love themselves and you a Darwin boy wants to help the weak and mess up the natural order lol. Move to Miss and be amoung your folks at saying one thing and doing another.
dakine can you imagine IF a state passed such a law lol. If you think their is fighting and disagreement now in Gov. you would see it 10 fold as all the different doctrines that all the different churches would be a war as to what the bible means.
In the end the words of JESUS would be ignored almost totally as God did not want Written LAW but wanted the new law to be written on the hearts of mankind. IF the Sermon on the Mountain was the NEW LAW the jails would be full of violators which of course would violate the Sermon itself as love your enemies, turn the other cheek and give to a thief not put him in jail are what is written.
The conservative political right wing Christians would not go by the teachings of JESUS as they are more socialist than Capitalist and Kingdom of God instead of Pro USA.
It would be a sad day but I guess maybe God knows that day is coming and the good news is So is Jesus and I doubt having the Bible as the Law would make Him very happy.
Lake being a total non believer is closer to God's thinking on this than are the believers who want to bring back the LAW. Thus making Jesus death for nothing. We have Grace and the righteousness of Jesus what do we need with a Law to judge us?
bluhorse the ONLY reason that FRO will issue new stock (not restructure) is that JF wants to buy those shares for himself. But I believe cash flow will now meet all or enough of the upcoming April debt that no new stock issues will be made. Given the rates of today and for how long they have been up and that with a LT deal just made which will give some of the money up front or a few months into the debt due FRO should have enough money to pay off those convertibles. Cash flow is now king and in the black for FRO.
Once the announcement is made about HOW the debt will be handled FRO will go up in price. Rates are the key and with rates comes profit. Cost down and rates up that means profits.
dakine I know that the SEC has a way to find out who had bought oil futures at very low prices before the "crash" of oil prices. My bet the trail would lead to Saudi one way or another.
IF a capitalist market can be set, moved, held by a force other than capitalism then is it really capitalism? I suppose it is given Capitalism has no rules other than capital rules but USA laws were passed as were other nations to prevent
"Price Fixing" We have seen violators in the food industry fined billions of dollars in the pass and to this day they continue to price fix. Does anyone really believe that the high prices and the low prices of oil over the last 10 years have not been price fixing?
You are correct that those with the most capital will benefit from this new "crash" in oil prices and they will buy up the companies that will sell what they have to stay alive or try too. Most of the Balkins were owned by small oil companies not
big ones that will change with these low prices. Once demand overreaches oil production then the Saudi's will up production and will either raise prices or not depending on if their LT goals have achieved.
The people of the US and other countries are at the mercy of this controlled oil market. It also controls the eco growth of the countries as well. The new world order is strangely like the old world order when it comes to oil as WWII was in part fought over oil and growth and the need for energy to feed the military interest of Japan and Germany. Viet Nam was to stop communism for getting to oil.
Now the Saudi's are the ones who control the value. It is monopoly Capitalism
at its best and we have so far bent over and kissed the feet of those who run it.
Big oil is in Bed with the Saudi's but the Saudi's have passed up their once masters at the game.
liberty the US demand will be flat or lower "IF" the slow down in the oil business starts to impact across the US eco which it will if oil stays at low prices. But lets say it stays flat or close to it. US oil production will go down thus the US will have to Import oil again and where from? Canada and Mexico and S. America. For the US to start going back to the middle east for oil or Russia would be a disaster but IF oil stays below 50 bucks for a year that will happen. Canada will lose production so US will only be able to get so much from Canada and same for S. America and maybe Mexico as well. We have oil and lots of it just cost too much to get and 50 bucks will not cover the cost.
As bad as this has hit the price of oil stocks down the road if Saudi and rest of OPEC hold their guns and keep oil cheap the US eco will go into a tail spin. Our eco is strong compared to the EU and Russia and even China and Japan where cheap oil will help the user and hurt the producers. Only Middle East countries can afford cheap oil for a longer time period without hurting their eco but most of the Big Money boys in the MIddle East invest their money in US and Foreign stocks which cheap oil will hurt if it last too long.
Oil has caused world wars and make and break the eco of nations nothing new and this latest plung in oil price is WAY more than the unbalance between supply and demand was needed to move into a mild correction that would of brought things into balance. This goes much deeper than supply and demand and you see classic OPEC (middle east and allies) flexing their oil muscle like we have not seen in a long time. Low US production could mean return to long lines waiting for gas even if prices stay too low. 2016 election may turn on who voters think can handle the oil crisis and what it has caused in the US eco.
I know it is long shot but if oil stays at 50 or lower until the elections my money is on a oil campaign policy lol.
It will take a while before the rig count will reflect how much production will drop off as many drilling projects are underway and will result in an increase in production but I agree with you that IF oil stays below 60 bucks rig count will continue to drop off. Winter will give some clue as to the price of NG and if storage remains below the 5 yr average where it is now you could see no change at all in NG drilling and if rig cost goes down to try to pick up NG wells to replace lost Oil wells then you could see an increase in NG drilling as more rigs come available. Keep your eye on Oil well drilling. Big offshore projects will take longer to end but small E&P with their own drilling rigs may drill if they have to have cash flow but others will stop as soon as drilling is completed on current drilling. Already many smaller co. are moving their cash flow from drilling and buying leases to staying alive till oil goes back up which it will. OPEC could within a week cut production by 5% or even 10% but US production to go down that much will take I think at least 3-6 months are 50 buck prices.
LSTMF has already cut dividends and I think will also cut back a lot on all expenses around production.
I do not know how much they have hedged and for how long but I am afraid if little to no hedges exist all E&P that are unhedged will be hit a lot harder than those that hedge.
Saudi may not cut production but I doubt they will be increasing it any as well. If they are really declaring War on US shale oil then look for Middle East countries to increase not decrease production. Unfortunely I think they could do this merely by turning values and no drilling needed at all. Russia must drill to increase however and they are getting killed by oil prices so I doubt they have much interest in that but the Oil business is still OPEC and Big US Corp's. The big US corps will not suffer as much and will buy up some good leases so cheap oil works for them for a while.
okjbird The Watchtower I do not read but I have read the Sermon on the Mountain good reading but it may make you uncomfortable but Jesus made everyone that way since NONE is without sin and None are righteous.
A Red Letter New Testiment reading of just the Red words (words spoken by Jesus) is a challenge for us all but as clearly selfishness, rights and looking out for number one is not to be found in His words. Entitlement crowd? That would be who he died for us since Grace alone ENTITLETILES one to Salvation. None can earn it and God wants to give it to you.
And YES God wants you to understand that it is not your worthiness that grants you anything but his Love for you while you were a sinner lost in your sin that saves you.
Thanks Be to God for having US in His Grace freely given, unearned Entitlement salvation.
Not 13.2% either but 100% of every race and sex. He makes the rules not me you either take the Entitlement he offers of His Grace which was paid for by His Son the Lord Jesus Christ or reject it. Free will.
eightydelta Intertanko has raised the suez rates to agree with your publish rates on the carb trip. At the 53,000 mark. It does not show the TD17 spot rate that you are showing but at least they have now posted a higher rate for the Crib trip.
If those rates hold till March at 47,000 NAT will be in the money as will FRO. Clearly Cash flow will improving for both NAT and FRO and I think FRO will start a dividend come the second quarter.
I suppose it would be smart to try to "time" the market and sold in the high 4's and bough back in at the high 3's for nice buck profit and a new lower per share cost but frankly I was not expecting this much a sell off and I see the LT price above the 5 bucks we have hit. LT FRO has got to be looking better on rate strength alone.
grastano I do not listen to only those I agree with since that would be a closed mind set and unproductive. I know from your post what you are against and what you do not like that is the easy part. But what is your soluation?
13.2 % of America is Black what % of that do you think is on Gov social programs? What % of the ones that are on programs are children?
If you are against social programs I am sure it is not just for blacks as more whites than blacks get Gov aid so you are against it ALL?
What becomes of those you kick off the programs? What is your plan or do you have one? DO you see a difference between adults and children and how will cut off adults only?
Do you know that a majority of adults (all races) that get Gov social help also work low wage jobs?
I think you will put me on ignore since I do not just look at a problem which is a problem and say what I am against. Black, white, yellow brown they are ALL special in His site is more than a children's song.
I try to look at our problems of which we do have a lot in contrast not of political party but in the eyes of Jesus Christ the Savior of mankind.
Because of that I am to turn the other cheek and I am my brothers keeper and my brother comes in many colors and across eco classes rich and poor. According to the writer of the Book of James who I believe to be the Holy Spirit Anger can not do the will of God.
To be full of anger, rage and hate will only hurt you.
Your enemies it would seem are entitled to your dislike and hate but Jesus says we love them. Yes that is easier said than done but in it is a truth for us. We are the ones being challenged to Obey Jesus and if we do not we fail. entitlement attitude or not Jesus asks us not them to
obey. They will answer to Him. If you are not a believer that matters not to you but if you are then it should.
I was expecting 5 by the end of the year or surely after the debt issue was addressed but today it hit 5 bucks.
I don't expect it to hold there and I still expect profit taking but I can clearly be wrong.
Needless to say it is one thing to be wrong like rami has been and another to be holding FRO stock and being surprised by the big jumps up in price today as well as last week. I hope I am wrong about a sell off and I hope I am wrong as it marches up to 6 bucks but if it settles back down to 4 bucks it is still all gravy.
Folks look on the cart and see how long ago it was when this stock was 2.50 a share not that long was it?
It has to be that those buying agree that BK is not going to happen, debt will paid and the rates will allow FRO to move forward into whatever plan Mr. F has in store for it. I bet on Mr. F I think he got a big help from oil under 50 bucks another thing I was wrong about but Mr. F was looking down the road at shipping across the board. He knows his boats and I await the news on the debt. Once that comes the price of the stock today will be a bottom and who knows what the top will be. I am just enjoying the ride hope all who invested and stayed the course is as well. Happy new year FRO.
rami if your going to post you should at least post the facts correctly. FRO debt WAS 190 million but has been brought down so correct your figures. Also how do you like your crow cooked?
rami and at what price do you see the offer? The first was at 1.65 the next a buck higher so what will this one be at? One thing for sure you will not be buying will you lol.
kosmiccharly thanks for the weber site. IF I understand their charts and info correctly they seem to agree with what Intertanko has up for suez price.
eightydelta I understand about secret sites but given the lack of any public site to go to to support your claims as much as I want them to be correct my feeling is that I will go with the rates which Intertanko showed which clearly the market seems to accept given the big sell off after a dividend increase of over 50% which clearly the market should of liked.
I will wait for the quarter report and see what NAT has to say on rates.
Again I do hope your info is correct but without back up data I will stay with those that are public.