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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

rogere1946 291 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Feb 24, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Looking at this as possible investment.

    by jrfillion Aug 14, 2015 3:56 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 20 hours ago Flag

    just look at the numbers on the distributions to get an idea of what to expect.

    The biggest number to jump out to me is that they are big in NG and giving it away for 1.05 this last quarter. Criminal is the only word that I can think of. Ignorance or criminal.
    PER another trust much like CHKR sold their NG the last two quarters for 2.52 compared to 1.83 for CHKR and then 1.76 to 1.05. A lot of excuses are given by the board and when the Trust is "forced to answer the question" but the truth is with NG selling for more than twice the amount CHKR is getting they are either totally stupid or someone is getting something in their back pocket. Given the history of CHK which is the Trustee you make up your own mind on which it may be.

    Beyound that the hedges which changed little between the two quarters will I think end of this year be gone or maybe sooner but the info can be found on the web site if you dig for it.
    The total number of units will also be in play in the 2nd quarter of 2016. Both those means that the pay out of .38 cents this quarter will be this time next year around .16 cents or maybe less even. Who knows with these guys they may start paying the NG buyers to take the NG from them. I would sure like to know who is buying their NG at 1.05 or better yet I wish I was. The price of oil tracks within reason but NG has always been "suspect".
    Just so happens that CHK is a NG company and may be the ultimate buyer of such cheap NG eh? But without a Class action investigation I doubt anyone will ever know. That is the reason I got out of CHKR alone with I saw the end comming but to me How could I stay in a company that somehow manage to under preform all others Trust in price of NG?

    Now lets Say that in the next 3 quarters you get back a total of .75 cents of what you buy in for. Then get an average of .50 cents for the next 4 quarters. .44 for the next year .40 for the next .36 next. Lowering cost to 2.45 from 4.90. ? Good?

  • Reply to

    The Obama Economic Miracle

    by railsnstocks Aug 21, 2015 2:50 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 21, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    rails since you blame Obama for the decline in the market down to 16,000 I guess you give him credit for the huge rise in it? If not you are not consistence are you? I think most folks understand that China is the reason not Obama. But for you somehow you never want to miss a chance to Not be a gentleman and you attack our President even when clearly he is not at fault as you claim. You make yourself look silly when you do such things and how do you think anyone can take you as a person of intelligence and truth when you post such stuff? You can do better but you alone can choose to do so.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 21, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    Lake you have proved my point. I your want to insult and fight me you say that grump "spanked me" with his facts and my lack of them. My facts are what yours are on illegals. We agree on how we can not get rid of them as Trump says. Grump has said all sorts of "his facts" which you embraced how I am wrong and he is right that the US can get rid of illegals and suffer nothing. If you do not believe that and disagree with grump then how do you think you can say he can win against me and not win against at the same time?

    Like it or not (and I do not) on this one you and I are on the same boat. You so thick headed and hateful you do not even realize that I guess. Either Grump is right and you and I wrong or we are right and he is wrong.
    Unlike you I find his claims to be nothing but lies and what he believes and not facts at all. We have millions of skilled illegals in this country and we do not have millions unemployed or working at lower wages who have the same skills. We have millions of illegals who do just maid or yard work or other labor of low skills but some are hard labor. Again we do not have millions of unemployed who could fill the gap. A yard man makes a very good wage for 8 months of the year down here in Texas. twice what the min wage even if you average that out for the year. I have had some American owned companies offer me a service but never did a "Legal" knock on my door and seek yard work. I am sure they are some that do but the vast majority are who are illegals. They charge the same price or all or pretty close so it becomes a quality more than price decision. If so many Americans are looking for work why do not none come to my home for yard work or to do maid work? Do they not even have the skill to market themselves? They are millions of "Legals" who can do construction either a grump thinks. They may indeed be some who could find work but not millions as grump claims. So who do you agree with Lake?

  • Reply to

    distribution

    by dennisrfm Aug 6, 2015 11:44 AM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 21, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    I used to own both chkr and PER and lost money on both. Look at the distribution info on both and learn from it. The HUGE difference in the price chkr got for NG from PER. Who sells NG for a 1.02 only CHKR.
    They have always got a lower price than NG but this one is a joke.

    Now look at the amount of money for distribution to units of both. Notice the difference between what each made off of sale of production and what the each made off of hedging. As bad as CHKR did and it was bad.
    Almost half of that income came from hedging activity not from sale of production. That is beyound scary since soon the hedges will come off and without the hedges and with the total units getting a cut the payout would be about 1/3 of what it was. Yes oil could go up but when? Yes production WILL GO DOWN and YES how can they continue to get such a low price for NG?

    If your looking for income out of chkr you better think of worse case when you buy a distribution of nine cents without hedges and with all units. That does not include loss of production.

    So when you think about buying chkr I would advise you to think of yearly distribution of 36 cents a year.
    So anything you pay for the stock above 3.60 will give you less than a 10% income. Do not be deceived by the 28% as posted that will last for maybe one or two more quarters then what? I used to know when the sub units come off but I think it will about 4 more quarters then its over. Again not sure when the hedges come off but that too will be soon. Get the real facts and frankly any Trust that can get only 1.06 for NG do you really want to own them? Something is wrong there very wrong.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 21, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    lake you and grump live in your own world of lies. I shall not bother anymore to visit you there if you want to act like an adult and debate with truth and honor instead of lies and putting words in people mouth you may be worth my time but I doubt it. You are so stupid that you somehow say that grump so called facts that "spank" me does not spank you as well as we both share the same ideas on illegals but again your dislike of me forces to take allies of those of whom you disagree with. Grump will pleased that he made a beliver of you that illegals are not needed in the US and when all or gone no effect will be felt by the US labor force or eco. You can now join him and vote for Trump as that is what his plan seems to be. Congrats to Grump for forcing Lake to be see himself spanked but for me I feel no hand on my behind from Grump as bad as he may be I never figured him for one who would be touchy feelie with another male.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 20, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    Grump you are total waste of time as usual. Just how many illegals do you run into in Walmart or any retail store? You clearly have zero or very little experience with illegal aliens. Here is a fact for you to think about.
    The great majority of them DO NOT SPEAK ENGLISH. Now even Walmart would have problem with help that could not communicate with customers or management. As for as how you suggest that illegals are TRAINED you again are just LYING as usual. An American business who owns a roofing company is not going to hire a crew and train them you again do not know the nature of roofing do you. Basically they are two types of roofing jobs. One workers for home builders the larger builders have their own crews and smaller builders contract the work out then they are the roofers who respond to natural disasters such as hail damage.
    Storms and hurricanes. These jobs require a "fast ramp up of skillled labor" as they do not maintain 6 crews when no damage area is being serviced and when time come the wages go up and crews are sometimes called into the country by kind folks or they leave other non skilled jobs such as yard work or day work areas to join a roofing crew. Your a desk jockey Grump a big important business type of Corp American as you have bragged about before you are clueless on how things work with folks who work and sweat for a living.
    The public schools to meet the demands of all you conservative types to cut cost have done away with most of the skill labor training and thus the for pay skill schools have been formed established but to get into most of them at least those that are paid for by contractors you have to pass a drug test. Public school requires no drug test YET. That I am sure will be the next big Conservative idea.

    I am surprised that you have friends and that they are the low skilled class of poeple no not surprised at all since I do not believe you for a second just another of your lies.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 20, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    rails I see you are off your meds again by the string of post full of hate and false infor.

    Do the math rails 95million out of work in a country of what 350million??? 60% of those are kids or old farts so that leaves 140 million and of that you say 95 million are not working??? Come rails stop making a total idiot of yourself. But rails were did you get your figures? Please furnish me with a site of whoever is nuts enough to come out with the 95 million figure and claim that would be 48% unemployment? It would be more like 70% which even to you should seem high. You keep on saying that 95 million number so tell me where you get that from I would like to know how they arrive at such a number.

    As for as the rest of the stuff you spew out in your post you and Lake both go the same school of name calling and making up facts that suit you. This country is toast if folks like you and Lake are what the future holds.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 20, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    grump I understand why you lie and hide from the light of the truth but you can not evade the truth or change it no matter how much you try. What you express is ONLY your opinion and nothing more. You say that America can do without the millions of workers without any problem and I say they can not. Neither of by saying what we believe can "prove" what we say. I unlike you understand that but I unlike do have the facts on my side. No one in their right mind or with any care of the truth could see any loss of millions of workers as a non event. You are totally silly to think they could. The idea that they are on the unemployed roles enough males and females to replace the millions of illegals who work in this country is totally nuts.

    You are funny indeed. You who suggest that unskilled should earn less but you say that labor cost would go up if illegals left. In other words you are saying that we get ride of skilled labor and pay unskilled, untaught labor that you see taking their place at a higher wage??? You get ride of a hundred thousand roofers who know how to roof a house in a day and hire men who have never roofed in their lives to do the job and pay them more and take three times as long and do poorer work and America would not be effected? Same with painters, sheet rockers, concrete workers, wielders, electricians and no effect you say? Maids and yard men maybe replaced with not too much effect but the majority of illegals are not yard men or maids. Do you think those who are in ranches and farms are not skilled? Lets see you on a ranch or farm.

    You have been too long out of the real world is your problem. The world has changed and not just by having cell phones or smart TVs. The training up of skilled workers has all but stopped in our public schools and without the trade unions and while we allowed alcoholics to fill the ranks of skilled workers we today exclude those who do drugs right or wrong. Facts Grump and you lack them

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 20, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    Mr. BS thank you for you apology and it is of course accepted. I do agree that the US has in the last 100 or years become more socialist. I suppose we differ only in rather this is a good thing or bad. SS and healthcare are examples of socialism's. I do not however see such things as workers safety or protection of our air and water as socialism but merely a Gov. doing for its "for the people" what the const. says. Why should a Gov of any kind stand by and allow the abuse of the well being of its subjects? The whole idea of fighting a war is to protect the well being of the citizens of the nations from the harm another nation would do. This may or may not be true but that is what is sold as the reason for war or even more "noble" purposes like Viet Nam and Iraq was not for the benefit of the US but for the benefit of the people of Viet Nam and Iraq again that was what we were told. So for a Gov to use law instead of military to protect its people is not socialism but in fact the Gov doing what it is suppose to do. Slavery for instance was deemed to be an affront to the people not only in slavery but to the nation itself. That was not socialism. Nor was women winning the right to vote. Do not all American's have a right to drink clean water and not just the rich who can buy clean water?
    That is not an attack on the rich or their buying of water as they may still do that but it is a Law that protects
    ALL equally. Min Wage is indeed a socialist idea that is enforced by law. The idea that drives it is like child labor laws that American's do have a right to be assured a certain wage or protected from forced at a young age. The line between socialism and mere acts of Law I admit are at times hard to tell apart but the reason behind both I sumit is the same. "For the people" Had it read "for the accumulation of wealth" then the Gov would have no mandate to act when the people suffered abuse of any kind. Just what I see.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 19, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    grump lets see is the cheap child labor which must turn you on in Asia and slave labor of women turn you one or maybe it is the slave labor of men that do it for you? Which ever you or all you get off too just how much to the US eco do they contribute?
    Other than getting you off do they pay taxes like the illegals do?
    The answer is NO they do not. Do they take the jobs of Americans from jobs moved from the US to the FAR or do you deny that happens? Really do you think anyone would believe that lie? Or maybe somehow the far east slave labor folks go to walmart, Mc Dee's and other US business and spend their slave labor? Want to try selling that LIE? Lets see do illegals do that and contribute to the eco? Why Yes they do, They pay taxes and buy from the eco while all the far east labor do is please you? Why don't you prove you point which by the way is what?
    We wave some magic wand and all the illegals go poof and are gone and another wave of the great grump wand produced trained and skilled US labor who have not worked because mean evil illegals have taken their jobs. That is the LIE you are peddling now days. Only your lap dogs on the right and your puppy Lake would not call you out on such a bald face LIE.
    Now you lover of LIes be off and go find a mirror that will lie to you that you are never wrong and always smart and best or just wait for one of your child abusing right wingers to take up for you. I put up now you shut up or try more lies maybe between you and your father of lies you will find one that even lake would believe since he wants to believe the father of lies so bad.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 19, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    lake Christ does indeed say you MUST pay a fair and living wage to the worker and He does not have a legal or illegal in His Kingdom something many who say they are Christian fail to understand. Their is no difference in the Kingdom of God between the races or sex all are brothers and sisters in the Kingdom of God.

    I see illegals paying taxes in several ways. All pay sales taxes. All who live in some sort of building either pay a property tax or rent from someone who does. Most do not make enough money to pay any income tax as Legal American's who hire them pay less than min wage in some cases. Those that have skills and work under false SS numbers have both Federal Income taxes and SS taxes taken out of their wages and most of the time the Employer will not report the worker as they know they are illegal and steal the money the ones that do send the money to the treasury know that the illegal will never get it because the numbers are false.

    You boys who never worked law enforcement of such illegal aliens situation are clueless in how much money the American crooks who hire them make off their backs. Some will even "report" their workers instead of making a payment to them. The exploiting of illegals is just way to show how low life and selfish the American employer can stoop. Heartless, selfish, greedy humans who could not of evolved upward from monkeys and you do great insult to monkeys in making that claim. At least monkeys hurl their #$%$ at you in the open if your stupid enough to get near them in their cages where as American Business owners do indeed appear like the pillar of the communities while they suck the life blood out of their own mankind. Animals do not behave in this manor it is common only to mankind.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 19, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    rails more whites get welfare than minorities so educate yourself on the facts. More under the age of 18 (voting age) get welfare than those who can not vote. You clearly are a racist rails from which you need to repent of those feelings. If you must hate at least hate those that are welfare cheats of which they are many but the color of skin does not make a welfare cheat no more than someone who buys and sells rails stock is a racist only the ones that truly are like you. Do the Demo party help out the poor of ALL RACES for votes or because it is their belief that folks who need help should be able to look to their Gov for help not only for a body to die in some foreign war. I would like to think all of the GOP who are against welfare are so because they believe it hurts the poor more than it helps. That their motive are based on more than selfish reason but given the amount of racist in the GOP such as you I fear that most are merely trying to strike out and inflict as much misery on the minorities as they can.

    I would like to think your not as stupid as this post makes you out to be and you can not help yourself once rage takes over. You need to seek professional help the group will be large if all like you go for help. Hate is a terrible illness get some help before it eats your insides up and brings about an early death.

  • Reply to

    Shippers up Rates down

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:33 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 19, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    VLCCF down to almost 30,000 while way down it is still money making and Suez is now higher than VlCCF the last time this happened Both went up. The US is importing more oil while thus causing more in storage since the price of oil is now at new lows some in the US will start to import to store as we still do not produce enough on our own to meet our demand. We should of all went into air line stock when oil started going down but hind site is always good lol. We now will have to wait for the quarter report to bost the price of FRO as rates will not do it until they start to go up again. Iran may or may not be the cause of a lot of this down trend in oil prices and shipping rates and the fact is that Iran has done nothing yet as the agreement has not come into effect yet just as the FRO deal with FRO2012 has not happened yet. Lots can happen from here to there especially with Iran. Rates remain key and even if they went down to 25,000 FRO, SFL, NAT would all make money and could pay a dividend. If you missted the last 2.50 price now is your chance to get in.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 19, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    grump you really are either an idiot or for some strange reason want to appear as one. Usually you try to appear very intelligence, smooth and of all knowing but with this post you appear to be just another right wing nut job jabbering about illegal aliens. Why the change of appearance? you old one was working anymore to many catching on?

    Your deluded post is nothing more than what Trump is pushing to appeal to the low intellectual Bubby's who fuel on fear and hate.

    You are wrong on all counts as you well know but for some reason would rather appeal to emotion. Fact is that you have zero bases for your SOLID FACT that illegals are taking American Jobs. YOU also Lie when you claim they get all the benefits that you claim. Mention these benefits your talking about how about. Tell me where the skilled labors that illegal have are going to JUMP UP out of the American work force?
    You boys on the right love to say the unemployment rate is higher than the low it now at and ignore the fact that Gov. help is down to reflect employment of those who once were unemployed and you ignore the fact that over 50% on those on Gov helps are children who can not work or maybe you are for child abuse as well? I have a right wing nephew who is CEO of a school that trains people to be skilled labor. The contractors actually pay for the training in most cases. Pipe fitting and wielding are offered as the need is huge and special worker permits from far east housed in a secure compound now do the work. Most of those who try to learn the craft are kicked out for failing to pass a drug test. The big oil refineries do not hire illegals nor do their contractors who work in the plants thus the imported workers. Once Union labors of skilled craft unions did those jobs but now only when they have to use them for an emergency as the US Gov even the Obama lead on allows Big Oil to bring in foreign workers instead of paying union wages.

    Welcome to the nut jobs.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 18, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    Mr. BS your idea of socialism what you posted it to be that is not what socialism is about. Sorry you do not get to decide what socialism is no more than Capitalism Both are a eco system that can be found in text books. Socialism does within its goal the betterment of the social system across the board while capitalism is for the betterment of the guy with the capital to invest and for them to add to their capital by any means.
    Now the mean old Gov. has indeed restristed and made illegal some of the old ways that Capitalism made money for those of wealth and thus we end up with a restrictive captialism today.

    Communism is not the same thing as socialism in case you went to sleep in your college eco classes.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 18, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    Grump as usual you think you know it all and others are wrong. From your post I see zero of any value or truth so your not worth my time to waste on a post. Now go look in a mirror you and Trump act just alike.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 18, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    Mr. BS once again you state your opinion and call it fact. I will not vote for a communist or most communist as you like to smear but I will vote for the person who will help the great majority of Americans by what ever means they can.

    If that is socialism then fine with me as we need socialism and capitalism mix to form a better life for American's as neither works well if totally left to their own.
    History shows us that if you turn the Nation over to lazi faire Capitalist the result will benefit less than 3% of the population while the rest suffer greatly. Mr. BS your grand-kids will not be in that 3% and would suffer and the color of their skin will not save them. Ms Clinton is not socialist enough for me as I am a "OLD SCHOOL Populist" Sanders and Warren are more to my liking.

    What is better for 80% of the US is what I am far Mr BS and I would hope you feel the same way. Henry Ford proved long ago that the 80% can be helped in such a way that will also make the life of the top 20% better as well. He did it by paying his people a fair wage to grow the eco of the US and WE ALL benefited from that.
    Today Greed rules and the only to make Business owners to pay more is by LAW.
    They are too centered on today and tomorrow than 10 years from now and do not care about anyone but themselves. That does not help out the 80% or the 20% in the long run. Results is what I vote for Mr. BS and I look at the US 100 years ago and compare it to today and the great majority of Americans life is better today and that because of LAWS that forced a change from PURE CAPITALISM.
    Unionism was given birth and that produced an overall higher standard of living for the country for a season and the lack of laws allowed US companies to go global and forget Patriotism for love f the dollar.

    Sadly No GOP will push for what is needed and Ms. Clinton will not either but she will do less damage.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 18, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    audio my brother is not a contractor he is like others who go to a place in his city where day labor can be found and most if not all are illegals and he pays more than the min wage and just what "FAIR" wage do you talk about? An individual can hire a labor worker for whatever the worker will work for. If you are a contractor you will pay more than min but less than a union worker or legal worker would get and the contractor will withhold SS and taxes and pocket both. So not only do they hire illegals they steal as well. If your so silly as to think that ALL the illegals work can be replaced by "legal workers" then your hopeless on the reality of the labor force. Go educate yourself on our lack of skilled labor. Our youth are not taught trades in school. Our schools and the idoits that control them think 8 years of English is more important than learning how to weld or plumb or be an electrician all of which make more than an English teacher. Anyone who has never worked by the sweat of their brow can not replace the hard working illegal in construction work nor can most over 40 do the job. I watched an illegal working busting concrete with a sledge hammer in 100 degree heat for 15 minutes without a break. The whole crew was working as well on a main street making a new place for a business that type of work you will not find an American work crew to do that work and if you did it would take them 3 times as long and cost 6 times the money. That is why contractors hire illegals and only Law enforced with heavy fines or jail time will stop it.

    The drug wars clearly show you can not arrest or stop millions of drug users even when they know the harm it is doing to them and the cost to them of the habit. Do you really believe we can find and deport the 15 million of illegals who work in this country? Are you really that dense? At some time, fear, anger and hate has to be tempered with FACTS if you want to at least improve the problem.

  • rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 18, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    rail so let me see you hate demo's, EPA and of course Obama and because of that you rant and rave at EPA without ONE FACT on the spill. You know nothing of the clean up crew race but you attack affirmative action as part of the cause alone with demo's EPA and Obama. Gee rails I can see how Trump's logic would appeal to you. Dam the facts just rant and rave. You want to look at how #$%$ the US laws on deep off shore drilling are just look at Canada for what should be US laws. They require TWO drill cores when going deep. One production and one for use IF an accident happens. More Expensive indeed but does require more jobs and of course BP would not of been out billions and the GOM would not of suffered the damage that it has suffered but hey lets stay on our knees to capitalism and big oil pleasing them as the GOP boys and girls do and many Demo's as well.

    You and Lake are just alike except at different ends of the attack dog yard. Both make broad sweeps of rants and raves always blast away at the other party and policy and accuse people of crimes without one ounce of evidence. I can see you and him on a jury trying to find out the political belief of the accused to convict or acquit based on that alone.

    An accidental spill by a clean up crew and you blame the head of EPA All their rules (I guess you want those nasty sites to be just left there to harm the public?)
    and of course the President as if he hand picked the company. Given to trust the EPA or Big Business for my safety I pick EPA. I lived in a Heavy Oil Refining area and hunted in the marshes and drove over waste water canals some of which caught on fire from time to time. Big Business did not on their own stop polluting and clean up anything but the clean air and water act made them do it.
    Coal mines owners did nothing about black lung until OSHA and EPA forced them to make the mines safer and cleaner for workers and community. History tells the Facts not blind hate.

  • Reply to

    Trump Appeal

    by rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Aug 17, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    Mr. BS I think who ends up with the GOP nod will effect GOP turn out but at most 2-3%. I see Mr. Trump at the high end of the turn off of GOP voters for various reasons. Some of the intellectuals and old line GOP may find Trump a bit much for them and they stay home especially if Ms. Clinton gets the no (I do not see that as in the bag but..) I think any of the extreme right wing boys will hurt the GOP turnout and help a lot in the Demo turn out. Trump would get a big Hispanic turnout for the Demo's as would some of the others who clearly are not in line with what the Hispanic community as a whole favors. I do not see the Indy vote which I see the majority being more educated on issues and generally vote for who will do the least damage. Trump is a loose cannon and if he is to get the Indy vote he has to learn to be less childless and more intellectual in his issues. Having a game plan has got to be something he will need to get the majority of that vote.

    I think who ever gets the Nod for the GOP will get as little as 45% (Trump, Cruz,Huck,Perry,) and could win with 52%. Rubio I think is the GOP best beat to win. He is young and would appeal to women voters (yea I know sexist but...) He would appeal to Hispanics more than any other GOP running. He has matured in his verbal skills. He has to get into the race to win and that may be too hard for him. Jeb is another Bush and we have two of them already. We are looking more like a
    Monarchy than a Republic with Bush and Clinton if it comes to that and a lot will be holding their nose and voting and Jeb has already declared himself to be a hawk in Iraq. That hurt him with Indy's. Not that with Hispanics but the name hurts him. The rest I leave to you to handicap since you are one who will vote GOP regardless of who they run. (no offense just the facts) I am almost that way on the Demo and we both would say we are against the other party not for the one we are voting for I bet lol.

AGNC
19.51+0.19(+1.01%)3:54 PMEDT