rami your sage advise has really saved me money lol. When what I am holding cost me nothing just what is the danger? Had you bought when I told you too when FRO was below 1.40 and sold when I did then you might know how to hold a lot of FRO for nutting. How those short shares feeling today rami?
Lets see I sell and make a lot or I hold and lose it all or a lot of it is your warning? What if I hold to its gets to 5 bucks and make a lot more?
But hey thanks for the warning. When FRO sells off some due to fast and BIG rally buy some so it and then sell at 5 bucks. No risk no gain rami.
I give you credit you do have guts to show up and warn folks and sadly most on this list took your advise and stayed away from FRO for all the reason you and others stated. I had my trust in Mr. F and the increase in rates is purely a nice surprise and yes I am way ahead of where I thought I would be but hey I will take it.
Remember when she pulls back some which it should buy in and make some money on the up tick which will happen as well. Now if the release a way of how they will cover debt and the stock likes it then it will go up since a good quarter would be part of the surprise. NAT will show their quarter soon so look for the clue to FRO in that quarter release. I hate to be a told you so but man IF you had done as I begged you to do at 1.40 do you see over 150% gain you would of had? Oh well you warned us anyway and duly noted.
Guys looking at the above post I really see agreement out of all. The debt will be settled this coming quarter and then dividends to be address the following quarter both in the next 6 months. OF Mr. F holdings I see only the drilling company in any real danger but most deep sea contracts are LT I doubt much revenue will be lost for the next 6 months or more from this down turn. In 6 months the price of oil will be higher than 50 bucks is my thinking and I think those using ships to store oil think the same thing or they would not be storing the oil.
I am more concerned about FRO once the storage demands are over and rates go back down. The question then will how low will they go. I do see FRO going up over the next 6 months beyond that depends on a lot of factors. I am making a lot more on my % of profit from my shares than nay dividend FRO has ever paid for several years running and in 6 months I think that will be a total which 10 years of dividends would not give me.
In other words right now I like my gamble and odds with our without a dividend it is win and win. At least for 6 months.
lesserpath you mean you didn't buy down your cost when it was down below 1.50?
I just can't figure out how anyone could hold a stock thinking it was going to go BK and not take a gamble on it when it gets so cheap. I bought in and put a sale price 15% under my buy in price I figured I could win big and lose only 15% more of my low cost buy in. I have used this many times before and lost a few but one win makes up for all the losses.
I can tell you still do not have faith in FRO or you would be buying even at this price. There is no way short of a world wide recession that FRO will go BK so that is off the table. That leaves only the real good chance that for the next 6 months to a year you could see 5 bucks. Not a 100% from here but from where I am since I did gamble when it was low its all profit for me but even saying that I think you have 3-1 chance of making 50% on your investment in the 9 months off of FRO at todays price.
What do you have to lose? If you really think it is going down then sell today and get something out of it and if it does not and you gamble then you can win back some of what your underwater. I bought 5 shares for every share I owned and my cost on those was under 5 bucks. You will NEVER get it back just holding where you are on FRO they are a much smaller company than they used to be and you will not see the big dividends they used to pay but 5 or even 10 if the eco holds is not that far of a reach IMHO. Get in or out holding makes just does not add up.
I own both these stocks as I have posted. I will hold both for a while as I think this quarter will be good for both NAT already came out today saying they will pay .45 dividend same as last 3 quarters. About 6% at today price. That will only go up in 1st quarter or stay the same but not down. Stock has been climbing up and has risen almost 14% for 2014 plus 6% dividend and you have a year return of over 20% not bad eh?
FRO is down 34% for 2014 but as we all know up big lately. Now for today and going forward.
FRO has both Suez and VLCCF ships and NAT only has Suez. FRO and NAT both have about the same number of Suez ships with FRO having more control over lots more by that agreement they made but not sure how that works out on the financials but to disclose all the revenue from Suez ships should be about the same for Both FRO and NAT. Both carry Debt NAT is not facing a debt crisis as FRO is facing and they have had debt all through 2014 and still returned 20% up tick to year holders of stock (granted down a lot still from glory days but who owned in glory days and still holds at same price base if so shame on you).
FRO has a fleet of VLCCF larger than the suez fleet and has plans to add more.
Clearly the revenue side favors FRO down the road. The rates MUST stay above break even for both companies and FRO must get past the debt crisis coming in 4 months. Let us assume FRO does that does anyone still think they will not? Really? Come on sure they will. Does anyone still think they will BK? How silly. So Come MAY what will NAT and FRO look like. Lets say the current rates go down by 50% both will still make money off their ships not as much but NAT would clearly be able to pay a dividend as they have while losing money. Cash flow right you get that right? Now what about FRO at half the current rates.
Debt under control increased cash flow and even a dividend of 5 cents a quarter will be 6% at todays price.
scs I understand your logic in taking a profit and it is not a totally bad bet that FRO may retreat below 3 bucks a share as profit taking happens. 2.50 may be a tad low I think but is possible.
Here is what I see. Do you think FRO will have any trouble meeting the debt?
I do not. Do you think it will take a serious dilution of stock to get there? Again I do not believe it will. Look at the two last stock for debt trades one at 1.65 the other around your 2.50 figure. That tells me something or I think It does. The trend was UP not down in trades and whoever made that deal is not surprised by the price today is my thinking.
So your betting that in the next 90 days profit taking will rule the day and regardless of the spot rate on Suez OVER 50,000 now and VLCCF Over 70,000 today that the market will see the need to sell down FRO in the face of the BIG NEWS about debt. Maybe but again not sure down to 2.50.
Here is my real question to you and others playing the short term bet (of which I was one I admit) Do you really think FRO will go BK now? I doubt you do. If they meet their debt then what do they have in front of them after that. That is the clue.
I will post my ideas on that in the post NAT verses FRO later. Short answer is I now look at FRO as not ST gamble to trade up and down but a LT stock down the road 3 years.
IF big IF I am correct you will kick yourself for not loading up at today price as a easy double or even trible I see down the road in 3 years. The eco of the world of course as always holds the reins and frankly I do not like that wild card but I can not prodict it no more than I could 50 buck oil. Either sanity in the oil market returns and we see at least 80 buck oil or the US goes into a slow down and recession with the two parties locked in a death match over taxes and budget death.
#$%$ the casino at least has odds that do not change daily but for the next 6 months I see FRO making that 4 or 5 buck area
lake I see the new year has brought no change to the way you always find a way even if off topic to bring up the fact that you do not believe in God.
You are so clueless on the mind of God that had not God himself said it would be so I would be amazied but since God has already told us that we can't understand his ways then your failing to do only proves God is correct.
Your failure to understand the difference between causing something and allowing something is huge. I have to wonder if in your every day life you wonder around in a daze not understanding the difference when you take an action that causes something to happen or allow it to happen? Why would you allow it you may ask. To answer that it would take the knowledge of the whole realm of sets of facts around the event happening which frankly you or I rarely have. God by definition would have those facts we will not. Free will allows us to make wrong decisions and for followers of Jesus to run around armed to the teeth shows clearly they do not have a clue on the teaching of Jesus. If they did and acted and voted correctly then the women may be alive. You can blame those who claim to be Christians for also being gun nuts and voting more as nuts than Jesus followers and I would agree with you but do not blame Jesus for the nut jobs who claim His name.
rails if it is the law why can't I find it on the IRS webb site? Sorry but I think your 28% is wrong but I will keep looking. I will let you know if I find it.
Hey rails don't let the fact that you have to pay taxes on your FRO sales get you down. I can remember this time last year we both were deep red with this stock. Pay your taxes with a smile friend it beats looking at the numbers in the red for FRO lol. I believe we have one more bumb to go when the news comes out about the debt or a great quarter if I am right it could bust up to 4 bucks if I am wrong I still make money.
Its all good and the fact that I have made some money and will now have to pay taxes is a lots better place to be in than looking at losses. Life is too short to frown about paying taxes on you made. Enjoy.
Who knows what the future holds but I know I am HOLDING my FRO as I think it will see 5 bucks before it sees 2 bucks again. Now aren't you all glad you didn't listen to Rami on this one lol. Oh wait some of you did I guess and only the gamblers won. Playing on house money now only way to play :)
If rates hold the debt will be settled and cash flow will then be free to either add ships or give a dividend or maybe both. Get into NAT today is my advise as suez is rocking and NAT is suez company and soon the quarter results will come out. Got to be better than last quarter is my bet how much we will see. Quarter on FRO and NAT both will reflect 3 months on average of higher rates than last quarter and right now the next quarter is mounting up these rates today so its all about rates. Good luck and remember when you make money smile and pay your taxes its beats have a stock in the red zone. Greed comes before pride and pride before the fall.
Rails just where did you find your information? I can't find anywhere on the net that says that LT Cap gains will be 28% in 2015. You say that you are being fleeced. You claim your not rich but just middle class. Just what do you consider middle class income?
I guy that bust his tail, single no deductions with a good job ends up in the 28% bracket which you call middle class and you don't work but work you money in an investment
in stock or property and you make middle class money off your investment and pay the same 28 rate of income tax. You are fleeced and the worker is not? Why should your or my investment tax be less than someone who draws a wage? Sort of sounds like you have an entitlement way of looking at your investment gains.
You dismiss all who need section 8, Meidicade, Food Stamps as crack users maybe to try to hide the truth that they are human beings. Kids for the most part but you somehow are being fleeced off of profit your making off your investments when you pay a tax rate that has been at 15% for all but the richest 1%. Looks to me like your a free loader on the workers of America who pay 28 or higher if they EARN the money.
The real point was which you as usual do not see or understand is that MONEY MAKES MONEY. You cut the amount of money going into an eco even tax dollars and the eco will slow down. if we go into a depression your Cap gains tax will be as important to you as your gains on FRO over the last 3 or 4 years. You only have a tax problem off of investments if you make money. In a slowed down or sick eco caused by cuts and less tax dollars to be spent into the eco only the richest will benefit the rest of us will pay the price of a sick eco. ECO 101 or as Henry Ford proved it long ago. Even if Food stamps money flows into the eco that is better for you and me than some billionaire who invest overseas or buys overseas. Has to flow back into US market to multi. Not that hard really.
NAT going to release their quarter figures on 1-9 and if they are as good (compared to last quarter) as expected this should give a clue to FRO next quarter as well. NAT pays a 6.2% dividend now and if they have a good quarter they could go up on it even if only a few cents. NAT looks like a buy into over 70,000 dollar Suez which is all they own.
Yea I put my money down on the quarter release.
scs so how many "freak acidents" does it take before it stops being crazy and starts being smart? You are right that the one the lady suffered was a "freak accident" and the odds are long that it will happen again but the odds are also that this year many other freak accidents that are gun related will happen and passing laws that would prevent them all makes good sense not crazy as you suggest. Do yourself a favor and look up how many folks die each year from "gun shots" that are non hunting related. Requiring a "touch fire" system on ALL GUNS would do away with every accident where some kid grabs a gun that mom or dad bought and the gun goes off. That is not gun control. That is safety first.
The odds of you needing a seat belt or air bags are pretty long odds but yet would you want to save money and put your family in a car without them? Same for safety glass. Sorry but you are the one crazy not the law or me for pointing out that passing laws that stop, ease or prevent a large % of what the law is on the books for is not crazy it is smart. In cars it saves a lot on car insurance and health care insurance which I suspect offsets most of the cost of now mass assembled safety devices. Then of course is the value of human life. With every "freak accident" is a terrible cost in human life and suffering. But do gun nuts care?
Not in the least as they blow it off as just a Freak Accident as you have done. Even a Freak Accident that could of prevented and not stopped one person from owning a gun.
What are the odds of getting gunned down in Walmart? The women must of thought the odds were high enough that she was packing in Walmart. Stupid or crazy is what we Americans are with guns.
The wild west understood that keeping guns "illegal" in town limits did prevent shootings and accidents as the gun fight at the OK Corral was about gun laws. Dodge city, tombstone and most of the other towns had gun laws. They were not crazy either.
dakin I just got back from a 300 mile down to Crystal Beach which is next door to Galveston. I left 1.87 cent a gallon gas in Dallas and as I traveled south on I 45 I saw the price of gas go up. By the time I was in Winnie Tx which is in-between the big refineries of gasoline in Port Arthure/Beaumont area and the Houston area gas was 2.19 a gallon. Yup closer to refineries short and cheaper transportation and it cost over 15% more a gallon. Who was making the bucks? The service stations were of course taking out their cut of the pie but the real unseen element in all the price of gas is the gas distributors. The boys that sell the gas to the service stations. They actually more than anyone else other than oil prices set the price you pay at the pump. You will notice that the difference between Exxon and chevron may be nothing or a few cents and same with other brands and it is the service stations that get involved in a "gas war" which I saw on the trip only in Cleveland Tx area which lowered the price down to 1.91 on the way down and 1.88 on way back.
Do not think that there is not a nice profit in the price at the pump. It cost more money to get gas to Hawaii and it is then sold to whomever the oil company who owns the gas has as their distributor and then they sell it to the stations. Do the capitalist in Hawaii make more selling gas than do the capitalist in Texas? You bet but to live in Hawaii it is a given you just have to pay the price lol.
dakine I do not see what the problem is???? IF the GOP causes yet another Wallstreet crash they can being in control just cut taxes more on the rich and the eco will spring back just like it has in Kansas. Dear Gov. Brownback has proved just how trickle down works so well has he not? I mean the people of Kansas just reelected every member of the GOP back in office and even choose a Senator over a independent choice so surely their great state must be doing wonderful. They love guns, hate #$%$'s and not that many blacks in Kansas so what is to worry about? Jobs Nah they have lover taxes if they are rich anyway.
The new budget bill that the GOP got passed now that they own both houses contains even more giveaways for Wall street and bankers and less regs to hold them back. If this oil crash does not bring down the eco the Wall Street/Bankers will find another way to destroy it since greed always wins out in the end.
There is two sides to the oil situation. Supply which OPEC does indeed have a big hand in and demand which the eco so far controls. Demand is still strong and within 3 months if not sooner supply will drop below demand and prices will stabilize and rise. This whole thing has been mostly a Wallstreet play with a supply and demand out of adjustment. It has stopped or at least slowed down the idea that oil will remain at the 100 dollar level regardless how many wells are drilled. Supply must stay within reason for oil to be high and that brings us back to greed. No supply increases no big jumps in net worth for E&P boys and thus no big salaries and stock prices rises so they drill and drill. Supply is now in balance and only low prices has slowed the drilling. All the debt talk about FRO will surely be the same for most E&P boys who carry a lot of debt that 50 buck oil will not pay off. Jobs in the oil patch will start to fall now very fast thus unemployment.
Time to lower taxes on the rich I see lol.
All of these assumes oil will remain at current low prices long enough to trigger such a eco melt down. It could yes. But the point that is correct is that the GOP has always protected the big boys of Wall Street and banking and did indeed have a hand in the last meltdown in housing. But to assume the American voters are smart enough to figure all that out is a joke. In Nov less than 35% of registered voters turned out to vote. Those that did were mostly highly motivated voters of the left or right. Sadly the American voter is brain dead. Look at Kan. if you want more proof.
The state is in a financial crisis due to the policies of the right wing trickle down Gov and they just reelected everyone in the party causing all the problems and even had a independent to pick instead and would not do it. The American voter votes issues ahead of their well being. Guns are more important to them than a job. Homosexual marriages are more important than food on the table. Give them football and basketball and other sports to watch and they are just fine.
Oh yea When the meltdown happens they get mad and vote against the party they are told caused it.
Then they forget. It took only 6 years for the GOP to regain a strangle hold on the eco and they were very successful at stopping the Demo's attempts to mend better and faster the eco from the very first day of Obama day in office even as the sky was about to fall. Demo's are idiots as are GOP and the ones who are not are crooked and maybe more American's who do not vote has figured that out? Of course those with money rule and make the rules they always have and always will. This country today is more "poor" protected than ever before in its history and still the poor are being kicked around daily. It is the same in ever nation. The rich cry because too much of what they want or expect goes to the poorer folks while they have more than ever themselves.
We have brought this on our selves
scs I see your trying to be a grump junior by stating what I do and do not do or say. I rarely watch any news as frankly the stupidity of mankind is depressing to have to view. It is strange that all you right wingers on this board say "I never watch Fox or listen to Rush" or rarely to be correct hate to put words in your mouth like you do mine. So I take you all as being totally truthful when it comes to Fox news and I am glad you can tell the truth about something since your post like the one I am answering can be found with falsehoods and outright lies. But even a pig finds an acorn does it not?
So you boys on the right clearly do not watch Fox news I have to wonder why? Perhaps it even as radical and slanted as it is most of the time can not go as far right as you boys on the right in here go. Fox is not right winged enough for you is the only reason I can see. But for the majority of those who vote as you boys do (GOP) Fox is their loyal flagship. So for those who just have to hear some white guy or gal blast away at the President or some other "lefty" that is their news or rather talk show TV of choice. It does not like much news like CNN but MSNBC follows down the lefty side of the Talk show "news". Both pander to those on the left or right and tell them what they want to hear true or not. But you boys are not excited enough by this to watch as it must be too tame for you.
I watch the Big Bang and net flick as well as discovery, history and a few other shows which furnish escape from the human race which frankly I have all but given up on.
Lake waste his time trying to convince me in all manner of ways that there is not God. He misses the biggest and best argument at least to me. How could a God stomach the Human Race? It is the most evil of all of God creations. I suppose by sending his Son to die for us instead of monkeys show just how bad humans are. Evolution? Monkeys are far more advanced in many ways.
scs and mms are both in denile. No gun in her purse and she is alive. The gun may not of murdered her but its availability made her death possible. Not sure about Idaho but in Texas courses are required to have a permit to carry. Yes they teach you to keep the gun secure and yes with safety own and yes the dangers of keeping a round in the chamber. But if Idaho does not then include the state of Idaho stupidity in her death as well. We could of course blame it all on her.
Just as we could blame all deaths in cars driven by people who reject all safety devices made by Federal mandate to be on a car. However the Federal Gov understands its role as protector of the citizens of the country when it comes to car safety and thus has FORCED both car makers and owners to have and use all kinds of safety aids in cars.
We could say the car does not kill the idiots driving it or other idiots driving other cars kill. This is the logic of gun advocates. Forget the murders or shooting which only injure as MAYBE some of them if not most of them could be done by a hammer or knife if you want to be so silly as to claim this. But clearly the accidents like this one and it was an accident one that could of be prevented but still an accident these unnecessary deaths could indeed be prevented with the same sanity that is used in car safety. But instead we have chosen to be idiots when it comes to gun. American is a gun nut culture unlike other lawful nations and civilizied nations. We love our guns. We pay a heavy price for this love every year. Even the VP of the nation almost accidently killed a man while hunting. Accidents do happen and they happen to all of us. The women in question is not to be blamed for the collective failure of this nation to awaken to its addiction to guns. She was one of the addicted and paid a high price for it. The child will carry that scare all their life. Tragic and so unnecessary. Sad indeed.
Lake you argue out of both sides of your mouth. You ask why God can or can not do something then when you get an answer you say there is no God. Your entitled to your opinion but I am also entitled to not agree with it. In your opinion there is no God but that is merely your opinion. You ask about Love and how a God which you do not believe could allow someone He loves to suffer. My example was how a parent is often helpless to stop bad things happening to their children. God rather you believe in him or not was not the question you asked. You created a God and then asked how He could love someone who would die and go to Hell. The same question is asked of a parent who child dies out of faith. Free will is the answer.
You will not accept it since you do not believe in God but your question was asked of a God that you raised the question about. Sorry Lake you don't get to make all the rules you are most certainly not a God lol.
scs while you do not give Obama credit for your investment decision you made them in a market and a eco that was growing due to policies by OBAMA and the FED. Both understood that you have to stem and eco to make it grow. The GOP does not believe this as they only want to cut Gov spending and Gov spending of ALL kinds is what stems the eco. THE GOP wants to cut the spending which would take money out of the eco.
So while YOUR decision were you own the results of 6 years of pouring money into a very sick eco was done by Obama and the FED. The FED also upped the insurance that banks have in money you keep in them which allowed business to safetly keep more business accounts cash available safe at a new 250,000 dollar amount up from 100,000 and thus prevented a run on the banks during those darkest of days.
No matter how smart we might think ourselves I doubt you or I either one would see any growth or much if this country would of went into depression which steming the eco prevented or if the GOP radical right had forced the Gov to default or if the GOP had succeeded in cutting the spending to the levels they wanted. If you like your new found success in the market then you best understand that in a depressed LT bear market due to bad eco news it will be really hard to look as smart as a growing eco gives us the ability to do.
The law of averages works in your favor when the Dow and ALL other index's have moved up almost 100% or more in the last 6 years and if the next 6 years brings a retreat to 2008 index numbers due to Gov policies then who will you blame then? The Demo's wanted to stem which they did as much as the GOP would allow to protect tax breaks for the richest 5% of Americans. The EU did not follow that model and if you look at the EU and UK today you will see how much better the US eco finds itself compared to them. My net worth and your net worth is indeed related and will remain so to the overall eco. Stem you win.
scs you are wrong on two counts at least. First of all my post was taken from the news that the House Select Committee lead by chairman Isia of CAL. who had on Fox many times said "the white this and the white house that" and now the findings of the committee HAS BEEN released.
NO WHITE INVOLVEMENT WAS FOUND. Go and read it for yourself unless you prefer to believe the Lies or stand and continue to claim as you did that the investigation into the white is not finished. It is done read it for yourself.
You also accuse the IRS of treating Liberal groups normel while not doing the same for conservative groups. Again right out of Fox news talking points or some Lying Congressmen on such programs.
The facts are scs and again you can look them up if you want facts instead of lies. The IRS DID disallow some Liberal Groups the tax status they were seeking while NOT ONE CONSERVATIVE Group was disallowed. Facts Mr SCS not LIES or worse yet what you want to believe.
You have never worked with IRS Agents like I have so you assume they are powerless and stupid just setting around waiting for the "White House" to tell them what to do. You are totally wrong and an IRS agent is paid to think and act within the law to find and procede on Investigation on their own. The agents assigned to the group that worked these types of groups both liberal and conservative were expected to investigate EVERY Application for a tax free status that is THIER JOB. To make sure the law is being followed. The fact they disallowed Liberal groups and not conservative groups show no bias was found and if it was a bias it was within the individual agent who did the investigation and not the IRS upper levels.
IRS Agents are assigned Groups and each group has responsibility to work investigations without the area of assignment. Drug units focus not on tax exemption groups but on Individuals. None wait on the white house to tell them to open an investigation or even a boss.