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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

rogere1946 383 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2015 12:43 PM Member since: Feb 24, 2003
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  • Reply to

    37.5 Cent Dividend

    by teamecss Apr 6, 2015 8:53 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Apr 14, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    help not once but twice you showed yourself to be totally wrong. "The Board of NAT has declared a cash dividend of $0.38 per share for 1Q2015. The cash dividend for 4Q2014 was $0.22 per share. The record date is May 7, 2015 and the payment date is on or about May 21, 2015. There are 89,182,001 shares in issue."

    Now what part of 1Q2015 do you not understand? If your still having trouble getting the right answer you might look at 4Q2014 info which says the dividend was .22 cents. If your a short you just got burned and if you have a reading problem then go slower and reread.

    At the current price of 12.84 that is a yearly dividend of 1.52 or 11.8% can you understand that?

    I can see why you need help getting up.

  • Reply to

    Expected Dividend 45 cents

    by hockeyzan Apr 7, 2015 12:18 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Apr 7, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    I wish you guys were right but my guess is 30 at best. Could even be as little as .25 Suez rates are now at 41.000 still making money but before they go crazy with dividends I see the addressing some balance sheet issues and maintance and maybe even a few more ships. I hope for at least .30 cents which would be right at 10% on a yearly basis at today fallen price. I do not think the stock would crash with even a .25 dividend but would rise with above .30 cents. Just my guess.

  • Reply to

    ALMSOT CERTAIN BAD NEWS ON THE WAY

    by rami36 Mar 30, 2015 8:02 AM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 30, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    The last quarter report address the higher rates being paid to SF and that is one reason why the break even rate on FRO is greater than NAT however as long as the rates stay about 40,000 which they are now and have been for the whole quarter there should be no way that FRO will post more of a loss than the last quarter being that the pay down on the bonds may effect the amount of loss due to ONE TIME Write off charges but not sure how FRO set up the accounting to cover the bonds coming in.

    Nothing has changed for FRO from the last quarter to this one except the debt will be lower and cash flow will increase. depreciation will cause an expense of course and this is not out of cash flow at all and is merely a book write for tax purposes.

    Rates are still the key to ALL shippers and the fact that Mr. F owns Ship and FRO2012 and other shipping companies merely means He can decide how he wants the cash to flow in each of them. No way he is going to let FRO go BK that is not even on the table any more. Balance sheet is cleaning up and cash flow improved greatly so if rates hold FRO will find its way back up an could come fast if they decide to start a dividend payment. Good buy at today price if you like to gamble.

  • rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 6, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    Everyone is entitled to his opinion and yours is noted. I do hope your organization makes it a goal to make sure that CEO and other top layers of management also have their pay taken down along with the average stockholder. Why should cash flow go to the top level of a company who is experiencing financial down turn?
    What is good for the goose is good for the gander seems to me. If the CEO overspends and goes into debt and cash flow tightens then maybe his salary should be the first place to cut? Cut the TGP dividend by 50% without cutting the CEO and others in the top of the pile seems to me is punishing the folks that didn't make the bad decisions. Real Investors Liberation would have a goal to make sure that top level exec's salary goes down with the value of the stock. Some take the same salary all the way to the BK court while stockholders are left holding the bag while the pay checks continue as usual to the boys on top.

    No accountability at all for bad decision and poor leadership as most boards are OWNED by the CEO's.

  • Reply to

    when are holders of FRO expecting shares to rise??

    by rami36 Mar 23, 2015 3:27 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 24, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    rails I think rates will stay fairly where they are for the rest of this quarter so rates will not move FRO but in a month or so NAT will announce their quarter results and if they do in fact raise their dividend as a result as expected by some and they met or beat the market then FRO I think will start to creep up toward its own quarter results. I do not see any bad news out there. I see some possibility of good news so a slight favor to good. The rates could go down but why would they? They could go up but again no reason for that. FRO is doing good with current rates, not very good or Great but a solid good. It will take yet another quarter before the balance sheet would support a 5 buck stock but what is 6 months to a almost double on your money? Don't get too greedy waiting on 1.30 stock their is no reason for FRO to drop that low again. At current prices hard to see not making 15-25% in next 3 months.

  • Reply to

    The western US

    by lakeed98 Mar 1, 2015 9:20 AM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 2, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Oh my, has FRO stock so boring that all us old folks on the board show up on Lake's post to post OT lol.

    Martin Luther (not Martin Luther JR.) only copied in both cases what Paul had said long ago. Paul put it "Eat Drink and be Merry for tomorrow you die" Poor Lake is not very Merry it seems :( but he will take a little wine for the stomach sake as Paul advised (wisdom of God) and let us all hope that Lake takes enough to make himself Merry after all :). Does God control the weather? Only if He wants too other wise he lets a cursed world follow the dictates of a fallen world which includes bent weather patters and God allows for the free will of man to let greed push him to destroy all sorts of life for profit and to attempt to change the weather after money, power and selfishness is the goal of most of fallen mankind.

    I live in Texas which is controlled by God fearing GOP and Greedy GOP who are proud that they will lower business taxes and home taxes all while Texas leads the Nation in uninsured citizens which the GOP cares zero about. So we have God fearing GOP types who run to worship lower taxes while leaving their neighbor in the ditch to bleed to death. Clearly they understand as much about the teaching of Jesus as does Lake.
    At least Lake does not claim to be a JESUS MAN OF GOD like all the good running past their neighbor in the ditch GOP types do.

    How is that for being bored by FRO this morning. Even a Jewish lawyer knew who his neighbor was now would he in an unselfish way stop to help him and at a Cost like the lowly Samaritan did? Not if he was a good GOP he wouldn't he has to go vote for lower taxes on the wealthy let the poor take care of themselves they are by being poor not pleasing to God and worthless.

  • rogere1946 by rogere1946 Mar 26, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    The movement down then up of FRO had zero to do with rates but might indeed signal some behind the scene moves that may come sooner than later. Mr. F has been a busy guy lately in case you have failed to notice. He has done some changes in ALL his holdings. SFL was cleaned of drilling rigs, FRO 2012 was cleaned of none tankers and FRO has merged with another company and Mr F is backing it all.

    I do not know what the final outcome of all this will be for FRO but I see value down the road as long as the rates stay above 40,000 bucks. This quarter is almost a done deal all with high rate average. The quarter will be better than last with cash flow if nothing else. FRO is a bet on Mr. F it was and will be. Either you trust the guy to make FRO back into a money maker or you do not that is the line bet on FRO.

    We do not know the value of FRO2012 but FRO owns some of that value. FRO is now paying SFL a higher rate which helps SFL (which I own as well) and that will continue as long as rates remain high. FRO has a higher break even than NAT and will make less off the suez than Nat which has been on fire lately ( I own some NAT too) but the NAT quarter will come out before FRO and how they do will be looked at by those holding and thinking of buying FRO.

    Wheel is turning get your chips down. NAT WILL raise their dividend how much is the question and NAT price is already showing an up tick from that but when the post of how much comes out NAT could go up another 25-50 cents so still some room to buy some NAT. SFL is a nice LT hold and take the dividend as I have done for years now.

  • Reply to

    Why Norway was voted best place to live

    by keembodakine Mar 20, 2015 1:47 AM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 20, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    fencesbyjohn You seem to leave out the high price the UK and Russia paid in that war? For 2 1/2 years they went it alone and the USA could only send vast supplies to help in the war effort.

    Seems to me just within the last week it was the GOP house that passed an increase in Defense Spending while the Demo's want to cut it. I bet even though you seem concerned about the lack of money that the rest of the world spends for Defense you do not mind supporting the party that wants for the USA to spend more. Not only that the Obama has worked with NATO in the war in Lybia and the GOP was all over him for that. If you want NATO to be more involved that means you just do not seat around ordering them when to fight with you but actually "ally yourself" with your allies when they engage a common enemy. Yes I would love to see more spent on Defense by Germany, France and UK and others countries of the EU and I would love to see us not charged for the bases we keep open in Europe and other nations of the world but that is not going to happen is it? I also would love for folks to see that while military no nation in the World can defeat the USA we are defeating ourselves in Free Trade Globalism and losing the eco war. Sadly neither the GOP or the DEMO are against losing that was as Obama is working on yet another Globalist trade agreement with the GOP as I write this and Hillary is a Globalist as is every GOP who may run for President. So we have no white knight in armor to win that war for us and none that really even want to fight it.

    Would I live in Norway? NO WAY too cold for me pal. They could not give me a house and food and whatever else I need to put up with the cold. Only a person who loves winter sports and cold weather would love Norway.

  • Reply to

    For those of you.......

    by burghboy88 Mar 19, 2015 9:44 AM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 19, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    burghboy I made both a on topic post and OT post this morning what have you made? What you posted has zero to do with FRO so along with your disagreement with OT posting which you can by title of post easy avoid how about you post something about FRO or oil or shipping even or continue to post protest all are your right to do on this board.

  • rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 12, 2015 4:08 PM Flag

    idcccn not sure PER and BPT is a good comparison. BPT has been "extending" the life of the trust as the amount of reserves has increased. I am not sure how BPT has done that with new wells or work overs but the wells in BPT trust produce more oil per well than does PER wells even though they are more expensive to drill.

    That aside PER has 2 more high dividend payouts left before both the subs convert and the hedges go away.
    I expect betwee 1.10-1.20 in those two payouts. The real question is what happens in 2016 payouts?
    Be conservative and say oil stays lower for the year hedges drop off cutting the revenue taken in by at least 40% and what was subs get the full cut of the pie. I think again the payout for the whole year of 2016 will be about as much as the last two of 2015 making the next 6 payouts being 2.00 - 2.50 (conservative again)
    2017 oil prices should be up close to hedges no in place we all hope if not look out below. Lets stay conservative shall we? 1.50 for the year followed by 1.25 next year. so through 2018 payouts have been
    4.75 to 5.25 and by end of 2019 you should have all your money back 2020 -2023 gives you 2.75 payouts
    2024-2027 1.50 more then another 1.50 including final buy back in 2031 for a very conservative total of
    5.75 or about 80% return of investment with some tax advantage also for 16 years. 4% a year return.

    If you want to take a more risky look at return add another 2.25 to the total payout over the time frame and you get 8 bucks back from a 7 buck investment or 114% over the same 16 yrs or 7%

    Maybe 5-6% return is a better bet where you going to beat that return? Chevron if oil recovers will make you over 4% now in dividends and you can bet the price of the stock will go up also.

    By the way I own PER so I am not bashing just trying to extend some figures. Right or wrong you have to think about the first 7 bucks is your money not income and your looking at 16 years of recovery time.

  • rogere1946 by rogere1946 Apr 16, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    RAtes remain good for FRO so what your seeing today is profit taking and MM boys at play. The real question will be how low they will take it or how high it may move up before the quarter is released and then all eyes will be on the quarter report itself.

    Fact If FRO sold for over 5 when rates were lower and debt was still owed clearly it was a mere run up by MM boys or someone or the stock is worth over 5 today. They were not expecting the rate increase of this size until 2016 so they got it early but will it last? Oil is creeping up and will hit 60 before it goes below 50 is my guess but regardless it will end the year higher than where it sits now. IF rates stay where they are now to the end of the year FRO will be paying a dividend and if not the stock will be about where it is today.

    Rates are the key. No way if VLCCF stays above 50 and suez above 30 that FRO will not clean up their balance sheet even more and move forward if the Rates fall back down then so will the stock of FRO.

    The next big thing expected is the quarter report which again may be less than some think. Nat clearly had a good quarter given the increase in dividend so you can expect FRO to do well also. Less than the rates would hint at but better than 4th Quarter of 14. Now what else is out there? Ask Mr. F because he is up to something just what is the question.

  • rogere1946 by rogere1946 Apr 22, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    FRO has been and up and down stock and many have learned to trade the up and down moves and I suspect that today is a good example of some folks taking 10-20% profit from their trade and waiting for next move.

    The rates are good so is the cash flow. So the next quarter is holding up good with the rates. When this quarter is released i am sure it will disappoint many as they expect to see the rates reflected in the profit or loss but the real rates that FRO gets on average will be well below the posted rates as is common in the Industry but they will be good enough to show that if the rates hold their is good light at the end of the tunnel.

    So trade the stock up and down to make money or hold it to wait for a bigger move up and dividend to be paid (not this quarter) and when FRO is able to pay a dividend the stock will be a solid 4-5 dollar stock a big divided could push it above 5 easy and that would seen a signal that FRO expects smooth sailing pun intended.

    Now if they can for a few quarters resist the buying more new builds that would be great. But who knows what tricks Mr. F has up his sleeve. SFL just increased its dividend a small amount so I do not expect any thing from FRO this quarter maybe the next but if so it will be small in amount is my guess but that is just my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Has anyone read the Jefferies Report?

    by canadaallan May 3, 2015 9:47 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 May 5, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    latest post on Intertanko shows it back up not the end of the rates yet. Another good quarter at or above the last.

  • rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 19, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    That is the reason NAT has went up almost a buck in 2 days. He says NAT will earn 35,000 a ship (suez)
    during the first quarter and their cost is 12,000 to break even. Three bucks come in one pays for cost the other two to the balance sheet. I see no reason FRO can not come close to matching NAT results in Suez ships however FRO does not have that a cost per Suez ship so they will not get that kind of bang out of a 35,000 per ship price but it will be positive sign. Nat talks of increasing the dividend which I believe is again another reason for the up tic in price per share. FRO is not as forthcoming with their ideas on the quarter except for quarter releases so we will have to wait another almost 3 months before we know how the first quarter went for them. The LT look on tankers also was upbeat from NAT again another positive for FRO as well. Good thing NAT does press releases to get some good news on the table as the history for a long while has not much good in it.

  • rogere1946 by rogere1946 Mar 17, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    Another month of falling rig count released after the close of the market should produce a up tic in oil tomorrow is my bet.

    "The steepest decline in oil rigs since 1990 occurred on January 30, 2015, when the oil rig count decreased by 94.The latest figures mark the 14th consecutive weekly fall in crude oil rig counts. In those 14 weeks, the crude oil rig count has crashed by 680."

    If folks start thinking that oil will soon creep up that might in the short term help FRO and other tankers as a fast and easy way to store oil is on a tanker. Not the cheapest but if you think oil will be at 60 bucks in 3 months worth the expense to save 33% on the price of oil. LT as oil goes up rates would come down.

    I think even with the sharp fall off of rig count it will take another 3 months before storage numbers start to reflect the falling production while demand stays steady. The wild card is the summer vaction season which burns up gas in cars and may if Airlines lower prices could also burn more aviation fuel as well.

    On thing for sure if the fall off goes on for another 14 weeks demand will outpace supply at least in the US so why would anyone want to see oil exported out of the country? If you do favor that please do not scream and cry when the price of gas is above 4 bucks a gallon while oil companies make money both in the USA market by creating more short supply and by getting more for oil in the European market. Great for Global Oil giants but bad for the average American burner of gas in their cars.

  • Some on this board are believing that the storage of oil is almost full and I am sure that some "expert" said so and we all know the "experts" never are wrong right?

    Well with that in mind here is another "experts" opinion

    Likely not, according to Robert Rapier of Energy Trends Insider.

    In fact, we're not even close.

    Rapier writes that "oil producers could continue to add a million barrels a week (which is about the average over the past year) for nearly 4 years before crude oil storage is actually full."

    The most well-known storage facility, in Cushing, Oklahoma, would run out of space much sooner than that at the current rate (about four months from now). But that still isn't going to happen, according to Rapier:

    We are currently in the season when refinery utilization is lowest. Refiners take equipment offline in fall and spring to do maintenance, so they use less crude oil at this time of year. This maintenance usually peaks in March, and then crude oil demand picks back up as refiners gear up for the summer driving season. The difference in refinery demand between this time of year and summer is generally around a million barrels per day, so even if nothing else changes that storage build should start to flatten.

    In other words, we may have already hit peak crude storage here in the US, and if not we're getting very close.

    I think this guy is right because it is a FACT that refineries have not been pulling that much oil and will indeed be taking more and making gas from it. Another point which Mr. Rapier did not address but I have to believe is in his opinion is the fact that drilling rigs are stacking up in the USA at a rate not seen in years and thus oil and NG both will within the next 4 months start to reflect this lack of new wells.

    By the time the demand for more gas for summer driving is over the effect of less new wells will be lowering production below that million barrels a week increase. The worse in oil price is over IMHO.

  • Reply to

    Ted Cruz....the scary one

    by keembodakine Mar 24, 2015 4:41 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 24, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    dakine maybe there is something about a lawyer who is extreme one way or the other? Oliver Wendell Holmes said that Huey P. Long was the impressive lawyer ever to present a case before the Supreme Court.
    Long went only a year and half and received his law degree early yet such a judge as Holmes was impressed with his deliverance in a court room. Perhaps passion motivates these lawyers either conservative or progressive the desire to "win" for their cause leads to hard work and diligence. Cruz will never be as popular with the American public as old Huey was but he does have his following and I do hope he lust for money is what makes him take some of the positions he takes as no one can be a dumb as Cruz appears in matters of the eco. Long and Cruz both share a strong resistance to work with the other side and both took on the powerful. Long however actually won a few battle and in La. he won them all. Cruz is mere shadow of the power broker that Huey Long was. Oh yea old Huey took on Standard oil and won and gee I wonder how the Long family ended up being worth over 400 million dollars and mostly in oil holdings?? Money is king. Long took care of the poor while getting rich while Cruz would take care of the rich while getting his.

  • Reply to

    More wars in the middle east.

    by lakeed98 Mar 25, 2015 10:07 PM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 26, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    rails both you and Lake are like children screaming at each other and who believes any good will come out of two children who can scream the loudest?

    A few facts. The middle east problems go back over a thousand years and were worsened in 1948 when Israel was created out of Arab land. Since then the Arabs have been trying to get back what was taken from them. Not addressing the right or wrong or who should control that area just saying it was that act by the winning powers of WWII that created the current country of Israel and has caused "more" problems in the middle east. GW or Obama were not involved in that. Saddam was picked by the US to be the dictator Iraq long before GW or Obama and it was Saddam with WMD given to him by the US that killed over 1 million Iran's causing a hatred for both Iraq minority Islamic sect that ruled under Saddam and the USA who was the power behind Saddam. Again that was before GW and Obama. It was GH Bush that attacked Saddam when the dog no longer obeyed his masters but GH advisors were wiser than GW and he left the mad dog in charge knowing a mad dog with a firm hand contained was better than a mad dog running loose. GW or Obama had nothing to do with that decision (a correct one IMHO) 9-11 happened and Iraq had zero to do with that. GW attacked Afghan Land as it was protecting terrorist who did have a hand in 9-11
    (a good decision) Sadly he left that front and war unfinished and then attacked Saddam ( a terrible decision IMHO) Obama had zero to do with either of those.
    The US has been entangled in both Iraq, Afghan land, and the fall out of the GW decision ever since. Obama has been involved in the last 6 years in that.
    You may not like what Obama has been doing in those 6 years but he was reacting to a situation he took over he did not create it. The GOP will not even give Obama the nod to move military against ISIS as he has asked for yet you want to blame him if that goes wrong I guess.

  • Reply to

    Obama's Recession coming

    by railsnstocks Mar 27, 2015 10:08 AM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 27, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    dailybread do you admit that the US was in a depression when Obama took office? By your own post we are not now in a recession so I guess Obama policies have improved our eco situation regardless of what you think of the man or his ways of doing this it has worked. How well has it worked? Look at the EU and UK and you will find they all followed a less aggressive spend program and did some cutting as the GOP always wants to do. Now look at the eco figures from each of those countries and you will find that not one of them has recovered as well as the USA under Obama policies. Now those EU and UK countries are not cooking the books to make Obama look good and themselves look like failures nor is the "Liberal Media" cooking the number in EACH of those Gov. to make Obama look good. The facts are Obama followed a proven method to turn a eco system in recession around and that is to stem the eco. Henry Ford no Liberal Demo proved this in the real world long before Mr. K had it taught in every college eco class offered. It works simple as that. RR failed when he tried trickle down and RR was more the EU model as Federal Spending increased a lot under RR. RR would be a RHINO today at least in his eco approach.

    The media does not invent number or facts they report them. The folks that compile what is reported do so based on long established practices. It amazies me how you guys on the right who dislike Obama so much always want to try to find something bad to say when the FACTS prove clearly that Obama eco policies have worked better than EU or UK or China for that matter. Do what the word tells you to do, respect the president and pray for him and if your GOP guys wins in 2016 and I am still alive you can tell me to do the same thing. It is after all what the Word tells us who follow Jesus to do. No back door on that either.

  • Reply to

    Obama's Recession coming

    by railsnstocks Mar 27, 2015 10:08 AM
    rogere1946 rogere1946 Mar 29, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    rails what is wrong with the way Travon Martin looked? Was not your look maybe? Not your culture? Didn't meet your approval ? I doubt any young person would want to look, dress and act as you do don't you? When you were young did you want to dress and act like the older folks your peers? It seems the old always looks down on the young when they fail to look and act like them. Nothing new under the son. Do you not see how prejudice your post is? Notice I didn't say racist which it is indeed very close to that as well but some how you have place a value on a person who dresses a certain way then expanded it too two girls who do not even dress as the male did but they are all black is that your point or you being a GOP type merely like attacking the kids of President Obama who you hate? I would hope you would be more of a man than that but it seems you are not. I am sure your mother taught you better so apologize to her for embarrassing her no need to do it to the board and even if she has departed you still need to apologize to her and your dad too I am betting.

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