skidude that would sure explain an increase in cost if I was the moron then this moron thanks you for the information. As an investor on the board information is important and even some times a moron can learn from such an exchange.
sean thanks for your information and it makes sense to me across the board. I confess I don't know what MSED is can you enlighten me? I did notice that FRO owns 3 other companies that have ships and charters as well I am sure that this too is captured in the quarter revenue report as well as the FRO2012 shares but I do not know if FRO2012 is paying any dividends which is the only way that revenue would show up for FRO holdings of them.
I do not see crooks in FRO like rails does and have invested in FRO because of Mr. F being in the company and I still value his wisdom on ships. However that said the charters were in force in the 3rd quarter as well as the 4th quarter and if anything less of them so there has to be yet another reason for the less revenue made in the 4th quarter than the 3rd all things equal same charters or less and higher rates higher do you see where I am coming from? Did they address fleet use? Again 3rd quarter had drydocked ships and 4th did not. Another puzzle to me at least. I think I better go back and listen to the broadcast as I still can't wrap my mind around the 3rd quarter with charters and drydocked ships beating the 4th in revenue. Charters yes to some degree and I know they chartered 2 ships for about 44,000 a day during 4th maybe more who knows.
Thanks again for insight and spirit of post. I believe that FRO should hold at or above 2.50 till next quarter which will give a clue to future. They do not blue sky you that is for sure.
rogers do you have any idea why or how FRO revenues would not better the 3rd quarter?
I sure can't figure it out from information they furnished.
Rails PT 2
Since I did not listen to the meeting that is all the worth while knowledge that I found on web site did you listen to the broadcast?
Take breath cool down and tell me what you saw or heard that concerns you. Yes I was expecting better numbers as they had 3 weeks longer of better numbers than NAT. I agree the 1st quarter will not I believe improve in revenue and the rates on average may in fact go down. Cash flow paid for the debt and other expenses and FRO is NOT going BK. They also seem NOT to be willing or planning to pay a dividend like NAT does.
Quarter to quarter 2nd 3rd and 4th. Revenue 2nd 118,972 3rd 135,619 4th 135,099
How could revenue be lower in 4th with no ships in dry dock and higher rates is the question?
Expenses 2nd 184520 3rd 173,148 4th 126,548 Wow that is where the savings came from not revenue but cuts in cost. We were expecting that.
Now the second quarter report shows number of shares issued but the 3rd and 4th do not that too bothers me.
NO where does the reports show the number of ships under charter but IF as they say that they cut the days off charter down to 24 why not an increase in revenue???? That too bothers me a lot.
Simply do not understand why or how the revenue did not go up given the higher rates from 3rd to 4th quarter again did the broadcast address that or the Q&A that question should of flown out at those there.
Bottom line. 1st quarter revenue will be flat at best unless the reason such for such a poor revenue showing from 3rd to 4th was due to some reason I cant imagine remember 5 ships in drydock in 3rd none in 4th and 1 to be in 1st quarter. Expenses should be either flat or slight increase but unless oil really tanks no reason to expect a decrease. Outlook for 1st quarter at best a repeat of 4th. So what will the do with cash?
They will have increase in cash they can either spend it, pay off LT debt or dividend. Only a dividend would help the stock.
I see your upset so I went to 4th quarter release to see why.
Here is what I found that perks my interest. Loss of 13 cents a share down from .56 cents a share.
Nat lost .07 cents a share down from .12 cents. A 41% decline in loss while FRO decline was 71% so your idea of managent at blame or crooked I simply can not buy into that. You have an untrusting nature as you know good to a point but here are two companies both in the same business NAT has ONLY Suez while FRO has less Suez and some VLCCF so I would "guess" that the 30% better performance is from the VLCCF side of the ship holdings. Now NAT pays a .45 cent dividend while losing that .07 cents so NAT holders (I am one and in the green so far) are getting a bonus that FRO holders are not. However FRO had to pay off debt with cash flow which Nat did not. NAT overall balance sheet is in better shape as well.
Expenses were down and days off hire was way down. That makes wonder why not less loss or a profit.
53 million added to owners equality during the quarter but the short term liabilities went up 3 million but LT liabilities went down 133 million which was the debt issue and other payments.
I am somewhat STUNNED by the break even they are showing. It is going up not down that I do not understand given cheaper fuel cost but maybe they are being safe and projecting a rise in fuel cost or who knows what else they are using as it could be even new builds factored into the revenue needed to break even as expenses or liabilities would all be part of the revenue needed to break even (dividends as well as in NAT case) I am not saying that is how they are showing it but it is NOT Listed as OPERATION BREAK EVEN COST which does leave a lot of room for "Accounting tricks" Legal but tricky.
The number shown for AVERAGE shipping rate for quarter I believe is NOT FRO number but an industry wide number which means little in our quest for knowledge.
To be continued
rails the rates started going up after the close of the 3rd quarter and ran the whole of the 4th quarter.
I got the info from the FRO webb site under the 3rd quarter report. The chart showed a sharp uptick in rates at the end of the chart or the start of the 4th quarter. I didn't look at the revenue numbers which I should of done but the rates for the 4th quarter over the 3rd where double so "IF" ( also some boats where in dry dock for 3rd and not for 4th) big "IF" the number of boats being charted was as much or greater than the 3rd quarter then the revenue side should be up big and the cost down. IF not then frankly I just do not get it.
Higher rates (double) from one quarter to the other and same or more boats in charter should equal revenues more than 40% which NAT got. Why wouldn't they?
This quarter report has to be better than the last one FRO was selling for 1.61 when the quarter results were posted. The average rate during that time was 19,000 for VLCCF and 23,000 for suez and they lost money at those rates.
Clearly the rates for VLCCF and Suez both should more than double that quarter rates but utilization of ships we be a big interest. There was eight ships in dry dock during the 3rd quarter and none was projected during this quarter so more ships available for charter. Shareholder equality went down by 57 million during the 3rd quarter that needs to improve a lot during this quarter and stop the trend for the year. The operating cost of fleet will be down no doubt about that.
Will the quarter meet the expectations? Most likely not but a key difference will be the debt retirement which will most expect be announced with the quarter report and with rates being on average twice what the 3rd quarter rates were for both the 4th and 1st quarter the revenues of the 4th quarter will give us a "look" into what the 1st quarter might be. Cash flow no doubt will look better profit is another issue but dividends are paid out of cash flow not profit historically as is the price of stock so we will soon see. We will be looking more at the 4th and 1 quarter in reality and the stock price should reflect that as well as debt settlement.
mrreits they are following the price of oil which is totally wrong for this stock but investors don't always do what is smart.
Having said that at the 6.18 price I commented on a buy there would of got you almost as much as the dividend and I would put in a stop loss at 6.60 take my profit and wait for a reload postion below 6.40. This is an up and down stock usually again following oil.
scs one thing for sure if as you predictied FRO end up in the green today after letting the shorts drain every last cent they could out of this stock I would hope even you would see how crooked and rigged the stock market is for the MM crowd. There is no other reason for FRO to be where it is today except for money being the driving force and that money held not by capitalist investors but by crooks who run the market just as the same crowd has controlled the price of oil for the last 3 months.
BTW this time next week FRO will be higher than it is right now and we will be with the money boys for the ride up. Unlike you however I am for a total rework of the stock market rules to get ride of the power and corruption of the MM boys who have controlled things since the rise of computer trading and of course the friendly rules passed your buddies in the GOP.
Rates are up today and have been for almost the whole quarter that will soon be released and now have been for the whole next quarter so the money says this co. should be worth more than the low of 2.36 it hit today but the MM boys had money to make. OK I admit I made money off the MM boys taking it up twice before as they soon will again knowing what is going on and making money off it is not the same as supporting the system to continue but as long as the Big Money boys control the GOP and some in the Demo party the system will continue to be worse than Vegas when the mob ran things.
Oh well now we wait for the run up which will come as sure as the sun raises in the East and sets in the West.
grgsv if it gets into the fours it will be a great buy and not a bad LT investment for that matter not great but good. I will be a buyer if it goes below 5 that's for sure but I doubt you will much below 5.50 but you never know. Oil is still the key which for the life of the hedges on this one should not even be a factor. I am glad I got out at 7.32 I could replace all my shares for a 1.17 gain would give me a real cost on the shares of 4.98 but not a buyer yet. For a real Kill on this short time play (almost 3 months) have to buy near the bottom and sale above .44 and I do not think the payout will reach .44 again but maybe close. Figure on only a 40 cents profit per share or 6.5% profit for 3 months holding or 26% for a year which is not bad using stop losses to protect the .40 cents profit should make you the 6.5% at least and I think closer to 10% but 6.5% is not bad for a 3 month turn around. Good luck
chuck not sure what price you got into chkr but if you do the numbers on your investment return of investment
over the next 13 years for you to make any money at all you first must recover all you invested.
Given that the history of chkr has been a decrease of 10% in payout lately and that with hedges that will expire by end of year and the subs start taking a cut in 2017 the future payout of chkr will not see 44 cents again but lets get crazy shall we? Lets say they get .44 for the next 7 quarters until the subs start to take a cut. That gives you .44 x 7 or 3.08 that is a rosy picture The no hedges so the price of oil will have to be over 88 bucks to make up the hedge and with no new wells to be drilled the production will go down thus the revenue. So you have at least more shares taking a bite and less production both will take the payout down. Lets say you get 1.20 for the first year with subs and no new wells. You have now recovered
4.28 of Your Money. Lets be really crazy and say the total payout goes down by only 10% the next year.
5.36 back to you and you are now over 4 years into your pay out and the year 2019. Another 10% drop in revenue again very generous I think will give your .98 cents or a return of 6.34 which by then I hope you have ALL your money back. I think a payout of .88 cents for the next year would be a dream payout and of course which of course would be 2 years in the ownership and 2021. 7.22 in payouts minus your investment.
At a todays price of 6.17 now that would give you l.05 for 6 years or a return of capital of 2.8% over the next 6 years and a lot of risk that could send that down and maybe some gain to send it up. the next 5 years
80 cents and then 72 cents then 65 then 58 then 52 gives you 3.27 return at a 10% drop per year. or total return of 4.32 cents over 11 years a 4.9% return. that is 2026 also. Good buy at todays price?
rami I am indeed so sorry that YOU choose not to take my and others advise and buy FRO when it was under 1.50 then sell when it was above 5.00. Do the math rami that is a profit of over 200% that some made Not you of course but your idea that FRO has only produced gloom and doom couldn't be further from the truth.
Almost every share I own is free and clear from profits I have made in not one but two plays of FRO running up and down. You short to make your ups and downs and I go the other way.
Your too much a coward to answer my questions on your short position or to even take the advice of others as well as me to load up NOW on FRO. Good chance to see 100% profit before the end of the year if you do and I see no way not to see at the least 50% which is just fine with me.
Come on rami MAN UP you still short? Buying? or just get off to running off at the mouth gloom and doom. The last time FRO jumped up you stopped posting for a while until it started to go down again then you showed back up. Here is a flash for you rami between the run and the going down money was made by us who had bought on the cheap. While you Not so Much it seems.
Get on board not too late
rails you and I disagree about politics but on FRO we seem to be in total agreement. I will admit that this stock will SHOCK ME if after the quarter release it does not run up pass 3 bucks and I think more.
Each day that passes with the current rates add cash flow to the bottom line for next quarter. Rates still in good profit price agree not the big money it was a month or so ago but still good money. Debt that was immediate issue will be over with and profit to bottom line down the road as well as cash flow issue looking good. Why it is still low as all know these facts is beyond me.
Stock market is above 18,000 points and still you give Obama no credit for his financial approach of spend and grow? A money man like you puzzle me as clearly a faster growing eco which we have as opposed to a cut and dry out the eco which both houses now want to do will send the market and OUR money out the window. I do not see you being a social conservative guy but one who likes to make money and understands that making money and paying taxes is better than losing money so your kind of "conservative" will always puzzle me lol.
But hey that is what America tick we both have the right to be wrong or as with FRO right. Keep on adding the time grows nearer and nearer.
rami this may be your last chance to get some FRO this cheap. Surely you have covered your short position by now? If you have no short position then and you do not buy why are you so interested in FRO? You missed the plunge up which made most of us a lot of money I do hope you made some money on your short position since you still are not a believer in FRO by your post at least and set on sideline and act like a short holder you are either a short, dissatisfied loser who is afraid to take another chance or a silly nilly who has been wrong and missed two moves by FRO both of which made most of us money.
You are not as silly as the guy who sees FRO at a buck however so you are no longer the boards most uninformed investor in FRO
Selling at 6.18 now. Traders are watching the price of oil which is the wrong thing to watch on this stock.
Hedges lock in the price for the next 3 quarters thus the price of oil is Fixed at 88 for next 3 quarters.
Subs will not get a penny for next 3 quarters that is a Fact. So price of Oil and Subs is Fixed for at least 3 quarters. So what are we looking at? PRODUCTION
If it follows the same trend as it has in past quarters look for a drop of around 10% each quarter in production revenue (that could be even better due to hedges stay the same as production drops) which should also follow the 10% curve.
.40 cents, 36 cents 32cents or 1.08 back to you giving you a base of 5.10 in the stock for the remaining years. I still do not like it as long term buy but no doubt that at this price now 6.20 it will move up some
before next dividend even if only .40 is the amount which I think will be the low and .42 the high.
How long will you have to hold it to make your 3-6% profit? Well if I knew that I would buy now lol.
I got out at 7.32 and missed the top badly but I didn't stay in and miss the fall as bad either. This stock is a pure Short term buy sell play due to dividend. PER acted the same way but I stayed in that one and as of today could of played it and made a little more going in and out but PER is a safer play for dividend and it will also rise up again after giving me that nice .65 payout. You have to play CHKR for the time to get out and get back in and that takes skill and luck and of course money to risk. Good luck to all who play.
grgsvll wait for the play and repeat. The dividend however will I believe be less than the .44 cents it was last.
This would effect how much "push up" the stock gets from the dividend play. No doubt the best way to "play" this stock is to short the dividend play. We know it will crash after the magic date. It is harder to time the up tick play but the crash is a given. Sad how the stock market has become a den of thieves instead of place where capital is created. We all how crooked the market is and how slanted it is for the MM boys and how unfair it is to the small investor. The small guy doesn't get a break from mutual funds either as was once touted. The age of computers and the wall between brokers and bankers has doomed the small guy as getting a fair shake. Get you a broker that will let you sell before the x date and cover the day after and who cares about the company or its report or anything else just make the play and the money and screw the value. That is the stock market the shorts run it and then the run ups only to create another short situation. Vegas is a much fairer game. Heck even the mob gave you a fairer game.
Thanks given today's price hard to see the results taking the stock lower so the sooner the better.
It has to be getting close and I think they will also include in that results what the bond issue is all about.
Rates are down a little but still making cash flow and profit. At this rate the stock is cheap if the rates crashes back down at least they took care of debt but remember the forcast was for the rates to go up in 2015 and be looking better in 2016 and 17 so this high rate period was a pure gift to the balance sheet which sure needed the gift.
I see no one is mentioning BK these days. Funny what about 4 months of nice rates do for shippers.
The MM boys want oil unstable so they can trade it daily. This storage number is a joke given it should of been no big surprise. It takes a while before the BIG fall off in drilling in the US shows up in the storage number but that is coming as sure as day follows night. How long is the only real question and for a clue on that look to the next month drilling rigs numbers. If we see yet another Big drop off in drilling rigs use that will signal a faster recovery for oil. You can not stop drilling overnight nor can you drill a well they both time to show up but the budgets for almost all E&P boys show HUGE cuts in projected drilling and as rigs come free they are not getting jobs even co. owned rigs are going idle.
3-6 months before the supply and demand in oil is in balance due to US fall off alone and I doubt that the fall off will only come from the US as big offshore jobs are being delayed as well. Nothing in the next 2-3 months should crash shipping rates. Fall yes Crash No.
Still looking for a bump up when quarter results and debt is published. Still time to buy and make a few bucks off the bump.
rails rogers2308 is not me lol. I did sell too early last time but I got back in at a lower price than I sold at so its all good.
Why is the stock heading down today. No big surprise the rates are going down.
You boys better not lose sight that rates drive the stock price. They drove it up and now they are driving it down. Oil will level out and make a slow rise thus it will take time to see if the storage use continues to prop up the rates.
The overall good news for FRO is that the debt issue is behind them and a better quarter is soon to be released. However if the rates fall below 40,000 for VlCCF and 30,000 for suez I would not be counting all that profit that you guys love to see in the stock.
My holding now are all free from trades so I am LT with a fire sale limit stop loss as I have an amount I want to make but their is nothing for sure in this stock as oil and rates both move the price. Greed comes before the fall and a lot of the numbers I am seeing is pure greed and hope and not reality in this market.
I believe it is worth more than it is trading for now but it may take longer than most think to see that value and sadly ALL the shippers are looking to add to fleet thus putting the supply up against a weak demand.
Its still all about rates gentlemen pure and simple