soulec I do agree with your LT idea value of FRO. I think you and I are not the only ones that now are starting to believe that value or at least 10 bucks. The question remains for me WHEN. Mr. F a while back stated 2016-17 for recovery and I will not argue with him.
Rates drive the price of this stock's value was my point and when rates crashed so did ALL shippers including this one. Rates up turn ran it up last months and now taking it back down and the MM boys use the up turn to over price the stock and then shorted How low will they take before they cash in? Don't have a clue but at even today price it would be almost a triple in 3 years IF Mr. F is correct. So the old bottom which I once bought at 1.81 I do not think will be seen. Anything near or under 3 is screaming buy IMHO.
You are right that Mr. F could not stop the stock from losing the share price value. Nor could he keep the company even at is pre dip size or book value as they have become smaller. But I do continue to think
Mr. F can and will insure that FRO does not go BK. He leaves FRO his totally tanker company as SFL and FRO2012 move into bulk carriers and container ships and he also into deep off shore drilling as well.
My concern is not what Mr. F has planed for FRO but at his age how much of his plan will he live to see done? Just as Mr. Buffet begins to face the realities of a limited life span and what that will mean to his holdings or those that have joined him in that style so too Mr. F grows old. I wish nothing but good and as long a life as they are to enjoy but the reality is that none of us can avoid that end of our investment abilities no matter how smart or wrong. Taxes can and are avoided but death is not cheated. That is the wild card factor for me in FRO.
Look at this time last quarter Stock trading at 20 bucks a share then the divvy went out stock went down to 19?? The UP. As we approach the X date I think we have mostly seen the dividend high effect now so the close today will be close to the pre X date price. Then you get your .65 cents and the price of the stock drops to 21.??. I do not know what the future holds as it is based on the eco and the eco is based way to much on politics and we all know how BAD politics is today in the good old USA. We live in a day right or wrong one Senator from Tx can knock the market down if he wants to prove some point right or wrong.
No doubt the world eco and ours both WANT to grow. But alas the enemies of growth abound and depending on how successful they are will be how AGNC does. To look LT in AGNC (and market too) you must outguess the whims of the minds in Washington DC since they more than any group of people shape the foundation for the eco good or bad.
Obama rather you like him or hate him took a stem the eco and the FED supported this by cutting the interest to almost zero. I have been AGNC type bonds for over 20 years now and overall I have done very well as ups and downs of interest rate plus dividends has been good. Right now AGNC is suffering from the last adjustment in eco recovery and the Feds response. I do think AGNC are smart bond traders and they like the bond guy I have used have started to adjust their holding to look down the road. I see no total fall of AGNC but yes it could lose a third of its current stock price. Using dividends to buy stock is one way to average this effect or merely holding LT will adjust itself or has in the past.
The BAD news is that the FED has shot most of its ammo so IF the eco retreats there is not much they can do but continue current support polices or increase them Interest rate is already down low no card left to play there. Quarter by Quarter folks.
soulec if you read some of older post when FRO was moving up and down without any reason at all and even I managed to make some modest money off the MM boys playing the stock I would agree with your short covering idea. However I do not see the last Big bump up as short covering ONLY. The quarter report showed a quarter that if extended would produce positive cash flow. No one expected the rates to stay up but the debate was over how long and how low they would fall. THey are headed back to old lows but not there yet.
As far as Mr. F is concerned no offense but until you are worth 15 billion or so like he is I will not be laughing at how smart or not you may think him to be. My money is on him as he owns more co. that are making money than FRO is losing. Is he shorting? I don't have a clue nor do you but as a principle owner he would have to report any buys or sells which I don't recall him doing in a Big fashion do you?
FRO will not go BK has been and remains my prediction as I think Mr. F is old school European Investment type and will not merely for money BK his name. So far he has chosen to do a lot to avoid BK and at same time make him money. I think that will continue.
He just gave VLCCF the ability to more than double their revenues in a few years for shares valued at a price of 10 bucks. Today VLCCF is selling for over 13 after this news.
Don't look like a dumb move by Mr. F to me. Making money off of VLCCF which gives him a lot of input on the company running and moves FRO2012 required new builds to VLCCF.
Sorry but to me Mr. F is a pretty smart guy who does not put all his eggs in any one basket.
Tankers, dry stores, drilling to mention a few. LT FRO I still think is a 12-15 buck stock when (not if) the tanker market recovers. I do agree that the owners are their own worst enemy by adding ships to the overage problem but that will work out LT for those that have deep enough pockets to see the turn around and Mr. F does.
The EU needs Russia a lot more than does the US for energy needs. Putin is no dummy he knows he has a big hole card in NG and OIL to the EU. The US can't help in making up the loss much too big nor can Iran oil or Iraq or Libya just not enough and they are already selling the oil to buyers.
The Crimea situation MUST be worked out by the people of Crimea and BOTH sides willing to allow that to happen. How can anyone doubt that the first President and the current one does not represent the will of the majority of the Ukraine but both do indeed represent a major part of the population of a divided Ukraine.
History can not be avoided in these situations as the Balkan's should show. IF the Crimea decides to stay within the Ukraine with a promised political solution that appeals to their majority PRO Russian population then the promise must be kept and the Crimea allowed to have a lot of self rule and free elections to pick Crimean leaders. Russia and the Ukraine Must accept this. If the Crimea by a majority wants to leave the Ukraine and be a part of Russia then the West must accept that as well as the Ukraine. To force self imposed non historical boundaries is begging for war. This is not a pro Russia or anti Russia situation but a Crimea situation. If you want true democracy (which we rarely do) then you must let it happen.
To make this a Russia verses the West situation is just wrong it goes way beyond that in historical, cultural and political areas that the USSR created when they remade the map of the Ukraine while under USSR control. Freedom for the Ukraine apart from Crimea is not being contested by Russia only the Crimea which was part of Russia before the USSR set new names and boundaries is the only point in dispute.
I wonder how the self Proclaimed Monroe Doctrine is playing out in Central and South American today?
It like the USSR caused more problems than it solved.
Nothing new that would explain the rise in stock price over the last few weeks that I could see.
Did I miss something? Buyout is the real hope but again nothing to suggest this as being in the talking stages or any New plans discussed. Same ole Same ole
Rates continue down and FRO goes down with them. Until rates go up FRO will continue to bleed money.
Mr. F will not abandon FRO so no BK but until rates find an upward trend that will last FRO will not see 5 bucks again. Buy if rates start to move up and FRO goes below 3.50?
scs you just keep on deceiving yourself about how the world and the great majority of Americans view Hillary.
She did have the guts to take the blame (when it was not her fault) for Benghazi something GWB and his crew never admitted about WMD in Iraq nor did they ever admit to any of the several embassies attacks that happened on their watch as being their faults. I choose to blame those that attack instead of the President or the Sec. of State or Defense unless their is a DIRECT link to them which clearly there was not in Benghazi or the Bush embassy attacks but the WMD is clearly GWB and crowd MISTAKE.
IF Hillary runs in 2016 get ready to be able to stand to losing twice to a black guy and then a women which really will get to you right wingers as much as you dislike BC who happened to be one of our Best Presidents both in Eco and Foreign Policy but now to lose to his WIFE.
Unlike Go it alone George except for YES MAN Tony Obama and Hillary has been able to get Allied Support for every thing undertaken both eco wise and military wise maybe you failed to notice that difference?
Trust me the American People who are brain washed by Fox and Rush noticed.
You go ahead and deceive yourself into thinking Hillary will be no problem to beat you boys on the right have underestimated your opponents for years now and over estimate your own folks. Just like on 2012 election night watching on Fox when the GWB boy wonder just could not accept the fact that Romney was beat even when Fox news said so he said NOOOOOOO. Just keep on thinking that way and watch Hillary's smoke as she guns pass the stuck in the mud righties. Just keep being the party of NO. How has that worked for you guys lately?
Hillary can only go down from where she is now I think. Her age being the big factor and the health issues that comes with it are the big issue unsaid but this far out always there. McCain if younger and with a different VP might of won if he had backed off his hawkish comments but at his age with Sarah as VP no way American was going to vote for him. (GOP die hearts yes but America being Demo's and Independents)
You guys on the right have some points you score with independents pushing a lot of the emotional non factual bases that independents tend to fall for however you simply refuse to see that hard right candidates scare the #$%$ out of the independents. Look at the numbers of Cruz and Paul against Hillary and Rubio would be right there as well. Christi before his character got nailed by spoiled child behavior appeared a conservative with some common sense to him and thus many independents liked him. Ryan is the guy for the GOP and he will give Hillary as close a race as the GOP can mount.
The GOP real problem is that if they take the Senate back and have the house they will not be able to help themselves and will act like madmen in what they bring up to pass and Obama veto pen will save the day and remind Americans that to give the GOP the Pres and the Senate and the House is like playing Russian Roulette with 5 rounds in the gun.
If GOP wins the Senate then the Demos will have to work really hard to lose the President race in 2016.
Don't worry too much Demo's tend to screw themselves up almost as bad as the GOP does.
If Hillary is appearing well and fit she will win bigger than Obama did in his two races.
newman no doubt about it NG storage numbers are going to go well below what they have been at in Long time. My 900 now appears to conservative as low but not ready to see 700 yet. I hope you are correct I looked at the nations weather chart today and the NE remains cold as does the central US. We have a few 70 days ahead of us but back down to 50's by weekend. Winter has not let go yet so next two weeks may knock off a few hundred more units from storage but Liza point is correct that how fast the weather changes from winter to HOT summer will be key as well to keeping the storage numbers down.
I still feel good about the NG price averaging over 4 bucks for year and if a hurricane or two develops a big price jump could happen but would not have much effect on chkr price or distribution keeping the NG average at 4 or higher will help some as NG and liquid NG prices are a big part of the chkr distibuation numbers.
The question really is WHAT IS THE NEWS? We know the financial part of it will not be exciting as the money loss will continue no big improvement seen in that so the only NEWS will be what is said that looks down the road to explain why this BIG runup has happened.
Given the run up has been steady now for a while it seems the market (who ever that may be) seems to expect Good news in that area. UP almost 5% before news leaves one to wonder that tomorrow will bring either a sale off OR a Big jump up.
But then again.......
obboi taking conservative look at chkr let us assume the final payout is only 3 bucks. With 14 years left of dividends that makes break even at
14 cents dividend a quarter average. Given the next four will I think average 50 cents I see only 9 dollar risk minus 3 giving you 6 bucks to recover over the next 12 or 48 dividends. A .125 dividend to break even. Break even is never your goal is it? If they average .20 cents a quarter dividend that would give owners a 3.60 profit for 12 year investment or 30 cents a year on 11 bucks dividend which would be less than 3% which is about what most annuities pay. That is why I see this stock as more an annuity play than anything else. I had said it was a safe buy at 10.50 before the last dividend which was 66 cents. Had you got in there your cost per share now would be 9.86. which would put you well above the 3% pay out return.
I would not buy this stock today at 11 bucks but I doubt you would lose money if you did but you sure wouldn't make much either and the risk is great. I do not know what the break up price will be nor do I know what the dividend pay out will work out. But I do think that 3 buck value at the end and an average of .20 cents a quarter for the rest of the life of this stock is not Blue sky thinking. The quarter pay out near the end of the stock will be key to break up price and that is just pure guess work right now. Trading it the way you have is fine with me but timing and luck is key to making a risk to investment return in that type of trading on this stock.
VLCCF below 22,000 and suez below 16,000 Red ink time thus the stock price is dropping being slow to react to rates. Those higher rates that turned the loss downward last quarter are gone pal and until they come back no profit for FRO or other Tankers boys.
Wait to rates turn around before buying back in.
I sorta like the idea of a Franchise law but lets make it apply to USA goods verses Foreign goods.
Let the States decide as the Federal Gov is clearly bought off by Global interest.
Come you states rights right wing guys is this something you can get into? What harm could come of making any non US produced good have to pay a State Franchise fee of 10% of value? Each state could enter into an agreement with another state that had same law and thus exempt all states but leave Foreign good taxable. Would be a way around the Federal Gov betrayal of the Country with their love of Globalism. Make this a tea party plank and I will endorse that.
raybans your ideas are not new and very simplistic. If you tax less and the Gov spends less your idea is that the tax money which would of been spent by the Gov for whatever is now spent by individuals thus the eco does not lose money into it but may actually gain.
IF and BIG IF your idea was correct that would be fine but it Is NOT. No law requires that saved tax dollars be spent or if they are spent WHERE and WHAT they will be spent on. The higher the wealth of person the less likely that the money will be spent in the USA or on things that make the eco grow in the USA. The upper 15% of tax payers especially the upper 5% bracket in fact are free to invest in foreign markets or foreign homes or investments which do NOTHING for the US eco. Travel and vacations abroad do little for the US eco except for airlines which may be American owned and staffed. Give the upper 20% tax bracket a tax cut and you will see more travel aboard and more money spent on foreign item bought and brought back to US instead of buying them at stores in US which employees US workers. Ie clothes, jewelry, personal items etc. When the Gov gives the money away even to social programs it goes right back into the US eco as the 60% of lower tax bracket folks do not have much money beyond food,housing,clothes and medical.
If your looking to increase the speed of the eco and the dollars going into it then the money the Gov. gives to poor and public works projects do just that by creating money to flow into the eco or jobs which produce money into a eco instead of unemployment.
We live in a time of GLOBIALISM instead of Nationalism. THE USA is GREEDY driven and would and is sellings itself totally for what they believe is cheapest cost item made foreign which is untrue first and short sighted as well. Europe does not follow that way of thinking and they have more manufacturing for in country use than does the USA. Sorry Ray but your all wet buddy.
dakine I do not think ANY US President has got foreign policy right except Carter and he made his mistakes as well but at least did some things right. The CIA I think is the chief cause or tool used by those who have crafted US foreign policies since the end of WWII. There must be a bad guy and Stalin was indeed that so at first their fears had some basis but after Stalin death the spirit of what he stood for died with him. Putin is a throw back but no where as bad as the American fear of Russia wants to make him. Russia has a lot of problems without adding the US to them but since we always stick our nose in Russian business everything they do to deal with Russian problems we deem an affront to the US. The situation in Chechens with Islamic fundamentalist should of been a wake up call but since we missed the danger in Afghan land and saw only Russian threat we continued to MISS the Islamic problem. Radical Islamic deals more deaths to Russians and Americans than we deal to each other. If Russia stuck its nose into US/Mexico dealings the way we do with Russian issues with its neighbors we be ready to go to war over it.
Once again sadly it is politics not reality that drives the whole Russian madness thing. To appear to be "weak" with Russia is the kiss of death to any election and has been since the cold war days. Politics is the biggest threat to the USA in foreign policy and domestic eco interest and will always be the case.
I do however see light at the end of the tunnel. We and our kind are growing old and dying off and with it the ideas, fears and goals of our age group. The rise of other parties or reformed parties lies 10 years or so down the road. They will always be extremes left over but the middle is growing and will take over.
They will be victims of propaganda as is millions today but the future and its hopes and problems belong to them. We are merely old farts running our mouths both left and right and dying out.
cannon axas has had a better run up than KOG which I also own. KOG however is known and found favor with the Wall Street crowd while AXAS remains a lost duck. Management cut the debt and regain daily production or in fact uped it a little and barely increased reserves and for that the stock went down not up by 10% or so. I am LT in this most frustrating stock and it gets played so while it appears to most that at this price it should be a "safe bet" I wouldn't bet the farm on it. This time last year it was a low 2 buck stock and today it is a low 3 buck stock. 50% in a year has been nice but the question is what about this time next year?
Maybe a low 4 stock is the hope which again would be 33% not bad but what will KOG be? KOG was up 25% in the same year period and to reach 33% increase KOG would have to trade at 14.90. Which bet you like best. If oil goes down below 90 bucks they both will give back some of those gains so not only are the companies a gamble but so too is the commodity in which they both live or die.
Stoopid bubba your name says it all nothing for me to add.
You actually want to judge global warming by one year?
Man you are beyond stupid and most certainly worthy of a true bubba boy of the old south.
gumby Like I said you go ahead and deny the FACT that ALL the glaciers of N. American are in retreat or gone over the last 100 years.
It is not something that happens one year or even 10. I guess the whole reason we sent men to the moon was merely to allow the Gov to spend more money? If you actually believe that then your way beyond help.
Private business and BIG PRIVATE BUSINESS are the benefactors of Gov spending. They always have been and always will be.
NASA in their so called need for science has developed billions of profit for high tech business and all those beloved Military Contractors.
You anti Gov boys just never do get it do you??? The Gov spends money so Corp American can profit and grow the econ and thus more money to spend and more to be made. You boys want to go hide under the bed and deny everything.
Global warming may not be man made or it may be increased by man or it could be out of balance because of man but one thing for sure. We are in a period LONG period of global warming but maybe not under your bed.
Checking out the rates and both VLCCF and Suze rates are below what FRO needs to make money.
cash flow may still be there but rates need to move back up to make some real money for FRO.
Guess that is why it has went below four bucks and of course oil is down. Eco news not that good all working against FRO in ST.