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Ferro Corporation Message Board

rogers2308 338 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 hours ago Member since: Feb 26, 2008
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  • Reply to

    SDRL BEAT EASTIMATES...!

    by staggman99 22 hours ago
    rogers2308 rogers2308 8 hours ago Flag

    Wrong numbers Stagg:
    Oslo-listed oil services company Seadrill Ltd. (SDRL) on Thursday said fourth-quarter net profit dropped 32% on the year amid impairments and lower revenue, and said the sector is facing challenging times amid lower oil prices, spending cuts and an oversupply of rigs.

    Net profit totaled $157 million, or $0.32 a share, down from $231 million in the corresponding quarter a year earlier, and was negatively impacted by a non-cash impairment of goodwill of $232 million relating to the company's jack-up rig segment. Revenue was $1.26 billion, compared with $1.47 billion a year earlier.

    Still 32 cents X 4 = $1.28 annual vs SFL only earned $1.00 for all of 2014 per their report, so given a PE of 10 for Seadrill gets $12.80 share price. Seadrill could end the year around $19.00 a share in my opinion.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rogers2308 rogers2308 9 hours ago Flag

    Seadrill up 12 cents, SDLP down over 50 cents - does not make sense - its manipulation of SDLP because it has low volume and downgrade makes no sense given the price 5 months ago it was over double current price so do you think the bad news is baked in ? Time to buy on these low price points and collect the dividends - and no there is no reason to think the dividend will be reduced because of Vencedor it can if contracted increase the dividend a cent so I really am not concerned about it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The good news is that the bad news is out

    by sfvip2319 Feb 26, 2015 11:41 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 9 hours ago Flag

    Where did you come up with 20% for Vencedor ? Look its only earning 212,000 per day - of the 10 drilling units of the fleet it amounts to probably less than 2% of overall earnings and probably 2 cents per share on earnings at most.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The good news is that the bad news is out

    by sfvip2319 Feb 26, 2015 11:41 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 9 hours ago Flag

    The reason the stock is down is the 3rd Q earnings were 64 cents per share, so the estimated 4th Q earnings were raised to 68 cents per share - their actual 4th Q earnings was a large miss coming in at only 36 cents per share - 32 cents per share less than estimated. ( net income 33.1 million / 92 million shares = 36 cents per share ).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Rails

    by rogere1946 Feb 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 23 hours ago Flag

    I agree about intentions, and possibly even for not wanting customers to know what rates others are paying for ships - however, appears common practice to disclose that kind of information among oil drillers, Seadrill, ESV, DO, RIG, NE, SDLP, etc. it certainly gives the investor much more and better info. to evaluate conditions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Rails

    by rogere1946 Feb 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 26, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Well, on FRO's website it lists the fleets ship names types etc. ; however, it does not list whether the particular ship is - on charter, to whom and the contractual rate terms - also whether the ship is on the spot market rather than charter thus each spot travel during the quarter would obviously be different - the report also does not provide for the quarter what was the average charter rate by Suezmax and VLCCF type nor what for the overall quarter what was the spot rates earned - I obviously would gather that spot rates given the short duration and higher risk would be higher than the respective chartered ships - I dont have the details as to what % by type are charter and % on spot. As a comparison - look at Seadrills fleet report and you will have an idea of what info that FRO could provide and is not. An exerpt from the 134 page FRO sec report is maybe helpful:
    " We presently operate VLCCs and Suezmax tankers in the tanker market.
    Our preferred strategy is to have some fixed charter income coverage for our fleet,
    predominantly through time charters, and trade the balance of the fleet on the spot
    market. Due to the very limited availability of time charter contracts, however,
    our fleet is mainly trading in the spot market."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Rails

    by rogere1946 Feb 26, 2015 1:13 PM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 26, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    Are you into a comedy routine ? Complaining about Fro's management and moving funds into DRYS where the notoriously honest Economo resides - I about fell out of my chair laughing wow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Contrary to the seemingly good news.

    by railsnstocks Feb 26, 2015 11:06 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 26, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    Would you rather they lie and tell you everything is perfect for a $3.00 stock ? Its in transition from DISASTER to breaking even in 2015 and 2016 hopefully will be modestly profitable. If you like a rosy story then buy a stock costing over $100.00 a share I bet they have plenty of good news.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    very ugly call

    by hageneriksson Feb 26, 2015 1:06 PM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 26, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    If everything was perfect it would not be under $3.00 a share - reading the 4th Q report the key is that the current break even rates for both types of their ships are well below the rates they are earning and yes I believe from substantial losses they are now in modest loss mode of 12 cents a share for the 4th Q to most likely a 2 to 3 cent profit for the 1st Q and even more important the bonds which 6 months ago looked like a potential bankruptcy situation is now they reported will be covered in good shape by April 2015, - you dont go from a disaster to a rock star in 1 or 2 quarters. They will I believe go from 2014's $1.63 loss per share to most likely a break even level and that is a huge turnaround. They are doing what is necessary and NOT over promising.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings arrived

    by jaci1969 Feb 26, 2015 2:50 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 26, 2015 4:21 AM Flag

    The article out so far lumped Seadrill, Seadrill LP, and NADL together so its hard to tell how each individually did.

  • Reply to

    Crazy Market

    by rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 9:36 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    GLNG lost 38 million dollars is up $1.16. while GMLP earned 60 million dollars is down 9 cents - just goes to show logic and stock market are not the same.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    4th Q report - my prediction

    by rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 11:02 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    It does not always follow logically - There will be good and bad news so its hard to say how the investors will react to the info. - My take based on current info is that they are doing good exclusive of one time charges - therefore it should go up but there is still a lot of negative sentiment out there regarding drillers - actually I am still very positive on them as the rig count overall dives its good for brent pricing long term.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    4th Q report - my prediction

    by rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 11:02 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    An impairment charge is a write down in the value of an asset - look to RIG - Tansocean's and DO for just 2 examples of other drillers with impairment charges, Seadrill has had impairment charges in its past also and interest rate swaps have also been a problem for Seadrill in the past - its a hedge which is not necessarily a bad thing long term thats why they do it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Well from what we have seen in other reports - Impairment charges will knock the earnings down, relating to Petrobas the real currency will also be a negative as well as interest rate swaps - regarding the good news the drop in dividend is starting to help offset the above, actual rates earned are actually pretty good and no where near the doom and gloom, Brent is actually in high $50's which impacts Seadrill much more so than WTI, earnings exclusive of one times stated above are going to be 68 cents and they will start paying a modest 10 cent dividend in Q1 of 2015 if Brent remains in the high $50's or higher.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Reporting

    by rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 9:41 AM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    4th Q report now on website, Golar Grand and Freeze are the two which will be drydocked in Q2, Q1 appears to be less revenue from, 4th Q of 2014 had 100% utilization, my take is that no increase in dividend for 2015, but should remain the same. GMLP is clearly my preferred stock to Golar for 2015 with 2016 being the flip flop as Golar has operational the may things currently in progress which are currently not earning money.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rogers2308 by rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    at noon, however Golar report already out there - from it you can tell GMLP is operating pretty well, Golar lost 38 million so they are in progress of expansion and 2015 will be generally weak with a breakout in 2016 to the upside as projects go forward and start earning money. GMLP should continue pretty much unchanged for 2015 and do well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rogers2308 by rogers2308 Feb 25, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    They lost 38 million in the quarter and it goes up 64 cents a share, just what happens if they make money - who knows - clearly a long term oriented stock - company says things will be rough for 2015, but they are increasing in size and experience - 2016 should be their year to shine as projects in stages now become very profitable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The BIG PICTURE.......

    by geejo6460 Feb 20, 2015 1:18 PM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 23, 2015 7:05 PM Flag

    I am the boss.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • rogers2308 by rogers2308 Feb 23, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    Last Q - 3rd Q it had grown to 1.47 from the year earlier it was for 2013 3rd Q only 1.25 - so what that means is that dividend is safe and with the addition of Golar Eskimo it will continue to grow and increases in the dividend to say 60 cents is only a matter of a quarter or two.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The BIG PICTURE.......

    by geejo6460 Feb 20, 2015 1:18 PM
    rogers2308 rogers2308 Feb 23, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    I get it, Gabriel is the big picture - lets roll it out to one firm of 60 employees that should definitely make the national news and maybe international news circuits - wow - KL is just pure genius.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

FOE
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