Just went to the USW web-site on ASARCO negotiations to catch-up on the status after my recent trip to the north woods of Michigan.
Bottom line ........ things are not going well. ASARCO is continually adding items which are very distasteful or even deal breakers to the USW.
Looks to me like ASARCO is very serious about lowering costs even if it ultimately results in a work stoppage.
The question is will the USW ultimately "step off the cliff" and strike and do they really have the support of their members for the "big step"?
All very interesting ..... and in my view, somebody will have to SIGNIFICANTLY back-off their current positions ...... only time will tell who caves-in. But each week that negotiations continue tells me that the USW has no real desire to take the "big step" (at least until after year-end).
Hmmm .... here's a thought.
Would a strike at ASARCO create a larger market for SCCO copper?
If I were SCCO I'd be looking at a way to help assure ASARCO customers a ready supply of copper ...... seems to me it's the right thing to do ...... just helping out valued customers.
I note that since I posed the question of why SCCO would double their share buy-back program I received only a couple of vague answers as to why they would do this.
Let me posit a very simple answer.
If I owned SCCO and I was intimately aware of all of my plans and those plans (i.e. capex & ???) and a very educated outlook of copper demand, told me that my share price had limited near to mid-term upside potential and likely a greater downside potential ..... what would I do.
You got it ....... I'd give myself the OPTION to scoop-up more of my shares at bargain (oversold) prices. To me, this means that every time SCCO buys-back more shares it reaffirms their confidence in the LONG-TERM future of their business and it's profitability.
Bottom line ...... short to mid-term share price appreciation and dividends ..... not so good. ..... long-term share price upside potential with a restoration of historical dividends a very good potential.
So ...... you've got to ask yourself the question do I invest in SCCO at bargain (oversold) prices and wait or do I hold-off and buy into SCCO after share prices start to rise (perhaps significantly)?
Just my thoughts.
Ain't nothing wrong with a pump, just the" clack, clack" often scares the **** out of a home invader and they're usually dead stone reliable.
But ..... 00 buck? You may still " invade" your neighbors home with that load (windows, doors).
If you INSIST on buck, might I suggest #3.
Try this, pattern your 00 on a piece of cardboard at say 25 ft. Then try #3 buck and then try 71/2's. In my experience, at 25 ft, the only advantage buck has is if you're dealing with body armor (what are the chances).
My modified 1100 patterns at about 15 inches at 25 ft., likely enough to make-up for any snap-shooting inaccuracy, but then I don't often miss.
The ONLY REASON I modified the 1100 is that it was a gift about 40 years ago with a 30" full choke barrel (no rib) and I hated it ..... it just didn't fit me (I was used to a Belgium Browning A5 at the time.) Now the 1100 makes a good home defense weapon and looks really good with the old Cutts compensator, the .925" inside diameter Cutts spreader choke and it's old timey quality (I did cut the stock by 3/4" for better fit). Otherwise I'd probably have gone for a modern, but ugly, pump.
I only wish that I still had that old (about 1947) A5, it was a beautiful high quality gun that fit me like a glove, and ..... I could really shoot it! But,maybe I'm living in the past too much.
Lastly, I do keep a more modern Taurus model M 856 magnesium 6 shot .38 in the nightstand. This gun (which I think is no longer made) weighs in at about 18 oz. fully loaded with 125 gr JHP's and shoots amazingly well. But ..... my favorite handgun is still one of my 1974 Walther PPK's ..... can you say Bond?
Dar, I have some minor issues with your choice.
If "in case" happens have you considered the damage that a 62 gr. steel core round could do to your walls (plumbing, appliances, etc.)? If you survive "in case" you'll likely have to pay a lot for more self inflicted damage repair .... maybe not an issue considering the alternatives.
Secondly, is your clone a 1 x 7 twist or a 1 X 12 twist? This ammo is designed for the 1 X 7 military twist but will still function with a 1 X 12 twist, just not optimally.
Lastly, my preference for a home defense weapon is still a shotgun. My latest creation is an 1100 with the barrel cut to 14" but with an antique 4" Cutts compensator silver soldered to the end to keep it legal and a Cutts spreader choke added. I load it with # 7 1/2's which pattern beautifully for interior use. For longer range use I do have a good selection of other weapons just "in case".
Have a happy and healthy Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dar .... thanks for the IV post.
"would be forced to redirect close to $5.4 billion of planned investment to other countries including Canada, the U.S., Chile and Peru".
Is this a two by four soaked in motor oil or is it a valid threat? If valid, I've got to wonder where and how much to Canada and the U.S.?
Hmmm ..... I can't help thinking about the proximity of some of ASARCO's facilities to those of the northern Mexican facilities of SCCO. Let's see, cut Mexican capex by $5.4 billion minus an added $1.0 billion allocated for SCCO stock buy-backs and that still leaves $4.4 billion to redirect!
Clamper69 ..... you're a crafty devil.
You imply that those who continue to believe in the long-term future of SCCO are lemmings who buy into SCCO's plans while being cleverly manipulated by the company.
Be assured that not all who continue to feel that SCCO has a bright long-term future ignore the fact that SCCO owners have THEIR best interests in mind and that there is always a possibility that, should an opportunity present itself, SCCO owners could take a position that benefits them to the detriment of other stockholders. An example of this would be the circumstances that led to the company loss of a lawsuit that provided us with a windfall dividend last year and enabled Dar to re-do his kitchen and deck.
With regard to your statement that "I feel sorry for people who don't appreciate the beauty of doing nothing for dividenttttt money," you're off base. Anyone who invests their money in a company puts their money at risk and that's not "nothing".
Lastly you cleverly avoided answering my question regarding the reasons for SCCOs double of their share buy-back program. Why? There could be several very interesting reasons for this decision. I have my thoughts and was soliciting other opinions to determine if my thoughts are valid. Sometimes subtle decisions such a significantly increasing a share buy-back program can provide valuable insights into corporate thinking.
Let's see if I can cut through all the BS and provide the numbers that seem to matter most to institutional investors.
Revenue: Estimates 1.42 to 1.63 with 1.49 being the average. Actual 1.3845. That's a .1055 miss to avg.
EPS: Estimates .38 to .50 with .43 being the average. Actual .41. That's a .02 miss to avg.
Now ....... does anyone wonder why the share price dropped today?
I used the yahoo numbers for revenue and eps estimates which are not necessarily the exact numbers the institutions look at but they're close.
It is interesting that they doubled the share buy-back program. Hmmm ...... I know what that tells me but what does that tell you guys and gals.
I suspect that today's upswing has more to do with FCX 's results.
Let's hope that SCCO can also surprise in a somewhat similar fashion (ex oil).
Let's say you owned GRUPO ...... what would you do with a 3% dividend payout if you had all the money you needed?
Invest it and make, let's say 3 to 7%? Or, leave it in the company you own to expand capacity with the potential of making a lot more later in profits which could result in higher stock prices and higher future dividend pay outs?
It's a business decision ..... pay me now or pay me a lot more later ..... get it?
Why pay bankers a percentage of your profits to borrow money to partially fund capacity expansion when you don't have to.
Well, I guess I won my bet ..... but I was hoping I'd lose the bet and get my wishes fulfilled.
Here's another bet ..... we will never see the total cost (in $$$) of paying non-essential government workers who STAYED HOME in the main stream media AND it's unlikely we'll ever see how much subsidized gold plated health care for government workers costs discussed in the main stream media.
My only other hope is that there are plenty of stupid healthy younger people that decide to sign-up for Obamacare ...... somebody has to pay for health care, why shouldn't it be the stupid lemmings who spend their time to facebooking and texting but have no idea how they're getting screwed or how much of their future is being siphoned off by the bloated, inefficient, unaccountable government they keep electing. I guess there's a price to pay for stupidity ..... its called your future. If the government takes too much of your earnings and doesn't leave you enough to live on in the way you THINK you are entitled you can always borrow to get what you want or need. But, that would only prove that you've let yourself be led into another trap .... idiot.
Didn't Bernie Madoff get sent to prison for a Ponzi scheme? Maybe he was ahead of his time and was just setting a good example for our politicians. We should let him out of the slammer and give him a medal for his foresight.
But, look on the bright side ..... everything will be just fine until we run out of other people's money or, until the money you've worked a lifetime to accumulate can't buy you a book of matches as happened in post WW1 Germany. I'm not saying it will happen anytime soon but we're on the right path.
The only possible solution ...... vote ANYONE in office OUT OF OFFICE (federal, state and local). A wake-up call is long overdue and it is after all ..... your future and your money.
Hey, I'm only trying to spice-up this board and ..... it amuses me.
The majority stockholder (GRUPO) can do almost anything they want with the dividend payout.
That being said, the dividend will likely remain low due to SCCO's planned capex spending. Several things can impact GRUPO's dividend decisions but, IMHO unless either a better investment presents itself to GRUPO or there is a large infusion of cash (from ????) the dividend will likely remain low until capex requirements are met. Other LESS LIKELY circumstances (i.e huge profits, cancelling of capex plans due to ???? etc.) could impact the above statement but this would likely be dependent on unforeseen situations over which GRUPO has little or no control.
At this point its a matter of "pay me now or pay me more later (hopefully)" ..... so, if you're in SCCO for the dividend payout you're likely to be disappointed.
Ask yourself ...... if you owned almost all of SCCO, and you were CONFIDENT in the long-term future of your business, would you cut the dividend to finance YOUR planned expansion of YOUR business or would you go to the capital market to finance your expansion plans and give a percentage of your profits to a banker? This is especially true in an environment where you have no better place to invest your dividend payouts .... a place that generates more than enough profit to offset the interest charges you would have to pay the lender(s).
Lastly, if you were the smartest gambler in the world AND you could lock-in low interest long-term loans in the anticipation of much higher future interest rates you may want to take a risk ...... but that's no way to run a business ..... unless you can control future interest rates (can anyone say FED and its owners). Remember, the objective of a banker is to get you in as much debt as possible as long as you continue to make the payments ..... can anyone say "sucker" (i.e. the U.S. government at a rate of about $25 billion a month).
Some of this post is intended to throw out a little bait in hopes a fish will bite.
I resemble your remarks!
What I don't understand is how you could possibly know that my doctor recently prescribed Fenofibrate to lower my triglycerides and Levothyroxine to stimulate a slightly under active thyroid (the only prescriptions I take on a daily basis).
Be VERY CAREFUL how you treat me on this site or I'll be tempted to bring-up how you used a pencil and string to determine a very critical and personal measurement.
Which site are you talking about? USW or SCCO? And ..... shouldn't I be grounded IN reality and not grounded TO reality. I expect precision from you as I have a tendency to be "anal" which I'm sure you can understand.
From the USW website on ASARCO negotiations (10-8-2013)
The third quarter bonus for most ASARCO employees was $1890. Since GRUPO last took over, ASARCO had a $1.8 billion operating profit (per the website).
Negotiations are ongoing with many issues to resolve.
USW advises that ASARCO'S union members SAVE THEIR BONUS in event of a future strike or lockout!
Hmmm ..... don't spend your bonus brother, you may need it in the future ..... ominous.
USW is also pushing ....... stand behind us brother, we need to be united (maybe some of their members are a little squishy on the USW stance).. Another thing that stands out is the USW is working "cheek and jowl" with other unions under the GRUPO/AMC/SCCO umbrella. which, I'm sure, sets GRUPO, AMC and SCCO's teeth on edge.
For your info ...... Roger
Who do you think will benefit most from the government shutdown?
History tells us its the government workers that get sent home because of the shutdown.
They get time off and when called back they get the pay they missed retroactively. Nice scam ..... get rewarded for doing zero after you have been declared non-essential by your government employers...... what gives?
If I had to wish for two results from this scam they would be: #1. that non-essential employees who got time off would NOT get paid for the time they missed and #2. that ALL government employees HAD to live with Obamacare without subsidies. Wanna bet that this will NEVER happen?
Can anyone say ..... "do as I say NOT as I do".
I find it hard to believe that GRUPO is going thru all these "monkey motions" JUST to screw minority shareholders.
They have something else on their mind IMHO ..... something that will benefit the business long run. That may involve a merger of ASARCO/SCCO under the AMC umbrella or maybe just establishing a value for ASARCO (via an AMC IPO) and then marketing ASARCO OR actually merging the entities and getting certain savings that bring down costs of the merged entities in an important way which I, at this point, do not fully understand (i.e. the extent of potential savings). I'll admit that if GRUPO is REALLY bullish on the long term future of copper then an ASARCO spin-off may not be on their agenda. On the other hand, dealing with a union like the USW and their demands is something that must be very important to GRUPO and could be a "fly in their ointment". They should know the answer to USW issue in the next several months.
How and/or IF all this "monkey motion" could ultimately work-out to the detriment of minority shareholders I just haven't figured out yet .... but I doubt it's for the single-sided reason of screwing minority shareholders without getting sued.
Maybe DAR will lend us his wisdom on a long-term theory on where this MIGHT all end-up.
So, if correct, that means that they bought back about 1.7M shares and IF they bought back all of these shares at the recent low (unlikely) they spent a minimum of $44M. That tells me that GRUPO/AMC/SCCO is still confident in their business and has, at this time, no better place to put their $ thereby eliminating one of my questions regarding the proposed (delayed) IPO "could they have lost some confidence in their business".
That's good news for us.
We're narrowing down the field of reasons behind the proposed (delayed) AMC IPO.
Youse comments have made me feel even badder and youse knows how sensitive I be to the suggestion that I not be the sharpest knife in the drawer.
So am I to thunk dat youse thunk my "possibilities" are logical ...... but foolish (or even insane)?
Let's see ..... I thunk its possible dat Grupo/AMC wants/needs cash for some reason ergo the proposed IPO.
I thunk it also be possible dat Grupo/AMC wants to establish a value for ASARCO which would be another reason for da IPO ..... but at the cost of some ownership and we's all know dat GRUPO in da past liked increasing dare ownership. Youse agrees with dis one I thinks.
An dat once a value for ASARCO be figgered den day may wants to put ASARCO up for sale ..... especially since day just added "successorship" to the bargaining table with the USW and eliminating "successorship" from the ASARCO contract with the USW would be a positive to any future buyer.
I den figgered dat an IPO and spinning-off ASARCO would generate plenty of bucks dat could preclude going to the capital market (in a forecast higher interest enviorn) to get monies fer expansion and maybe even leave plenty of bucks in the kitty.
I'll now adds it be possible that if all dis happens, dat those extra bucks could be used to pay down debt or even buy-back some of the equity lost in the proposed IPO.
So ..... please tell me wheres these "possibilities" be foolish or even insane. To me day looks like good planning even if day don't all come to pass ..... keep in mind dat even if day don't spin-off ASARCO it may be possible to lower ASARCO costs through economies of scale (i.e overhead reduction, facilities sharing or elimination, etc.). By how much I don't knows.
I likes to think ahead to figger out the reasons why a company I gots money in is doing things so's I can be better prepared for things that might make or loose me bucks ..... plus it amuses me and helps keep my brain young.
Forgive me but my spell-check seems to have gone kaflooey.
Could this be the tie-in that is PARTIALLY behind the purposed IPO?
That is, "construction costs are expected to be higher than initially forecast" ...... thereby the need for more cash to pull them off. The IPO may generate some or all of the cash needed without going to the credit market in an atmosphere of forecast higher interest rates. Combine the added cash generated by the IPO with the possibility of a future spin-off of ASARCO (after a value has been established) and AMC/SCCO could probably handle the capital costs of expansion and end-up in a stronger cash position than at present. If so, it looks like a good plan.
Hmmm ..... Now that SCCO made 30 it looks like my crystal ball was 100% correct back in mid-August.
What's that saying about the acorn and the tree rat?