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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

rogluther 141 posts  |  Last Activity: 54 minutes ago Member since: Feb 5, 2007
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  • rogluther rogluther Apr 5, 2016 2:05 PM Flag

    “Hillary's managers are concerned that the real Hillary the Barbarian is coming out. Physically strong arming female campaign workers, screaming at people, berating individuals in public.”

    Here's a true story …... but first some background ….. In February, 1988, I took a week long trip to DC for the company I worked for at the time to participate in a new “supposedly groundbreaking” program, entitled “Labor-Management Studies Leadership Program.” I made a number of important contacts some of which lasted for many years.

    Several months after the Clinton's took office, one of those contacts and I had a telephone conversation about many things but in passing he said to me ….... “Rog you won't believe this, you know that Hillary Clinton has left instructions that when she visits her staff at the Old Executive Office Building that she wants the hallways cleared and doesn't want anybody to look at her.”

    Think about that ….. What type of person would even think about giving an order like that?

  • Reply to

    The Value of a Brand & How to Set Image

    by spanspur Apr 1, 2016 8:20 PM
    rogluther rogluther Apr 2, 2016 6:21 AM Flag

    "The other big winner would be to call, meet, and talk to the fleet managers across America."

    Do you honestly think this has not been done already wherever possible??? If not by the EX VP himself then by his underlings??

  • Reply to

    The Value of a Brand & How to Set Image

    by spanspur Apr 1, 2016 8:20 PM
    rogluther rogluther Apr 1, 2016 11:18 PM Flag

    IMO, at this point in time, the Exec VP of sales has two problems with your suggestion of creating a visual imprint for DuraFit.

    #1. Not enough time because he's deeply involved with other things (like China, India and domestic partners)
    #2. No money for advertising and/or point of purchase displays.

    Without money in the kip you can't even hire outside help to do the job.

  • Reply to

    There is a Seller

    by beendown2 Mar 31, 2016 10:24 AM
    rogluther rogluther Apr 1, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    A "partner" buying CDTI shares ... did you get that from the following Shea CC statement?

    "In addition, we are evaluating a number of opportunities to fund our next phase of growth including capital raises, strategic investment, joint ventures and strategic partnerships. Our intention is to choose a path that minimizes dilution while supporting the Company's growth objectives."

  • Reply to

    where will copper be in 5 years ?

    by richbonilla Feb 24, 2016 2:14 PM
    rogluther rogluther Apr 1, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    OK .... I'll bite.

    Most of the copper will still be in the ground and the cost per pound will in excess of $3.

    SCCO dividends will increase sharply assuming it is not taken private.

  • Reply to

    There is a Seller

    by beendown2 Mar 31, 2016 10:24 AM
    rogluther rogluther Apr 1, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    I hope you do OK. I have not liked the price action in CDTI for the last couple of weeks as I thought it would be a slow but steady up.

    Regarding your thought that a secondary will not be below current market ..... I surely hope not, as it would be a disaster ..... but the question is, how long can CDTI wait for increased share prices ..... the end of March or early April?? My guess is that is about the limit UNLESS they find SOME money from other sources .... can anyone say Kanis for $1.5M at 8% ..... that may take them into the 3rd quarter if their ongoing business performs as forecast and would save the underwriters cut and would reduce possible short action.

    The 10K says there are only 187 private investors ..... that excludes brokerages, banks etc who loan to shorts. IMO somebody is actively trying to keep the share price low and the short volume over the last couple of days has ticked up a bit ..... if I'm correct what's their end-game ..... surely not making only a few bucks as only peanuts is involved (could it just be a couple of day traders) or could it be somebody looking to purchase CDTI on the cheap?

    Second quarter results will likely have more write-offs such as the Canadian facility balance, more severances but hopefully no added surprises in accounting for overseas inventories etc. as experienced in Canada.

    The 4th quarter results if traditionally viewed were good ..... earnings beat by 50%, revenue missed by 5.4% and EPS beat by 64.3% to analyst average estimates, forecast was good ...... so why not an uptick in share price ..... probably because no institutions are involved.

    Just my thoughts.

  • Reply to

    My Takeaway.............

    by spanspur Mar 30, 2016 11:48 AM
    rogluther rogluther Mar 31, 2016 10:13 AM Flag

    Again ..... my reply to you was accepted and then removed ...... what's going on?? .... I'll try again.

    CDTI had $3M cash on hand on 12/31 and $1.1M was overseas and not coming back (10K) leaving the domestic cash on hand at $1.9M. If they will burn your initial estimate of $2.5M in the 1st quarter versus my figure of $1.2M ...... how are the doors still open and why does CDTI say (10K) they are looking for additional funding early in the 2nd quarter?

    My gap of $1.2M is composed of net revenues to expenses in the 4th quarter 2015.

  • rogluther rogluther Mar 31, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Forget the "with all due respect" stuff ....

    I'm not going to disagree with you on salaries paid to Shea, Golden and Beal but let me ask these questions ..... which I'm sure both you and I can't really answer ...... #1. Who spearheaded the salary reductions and #2. Just MONTHS after Beal was granted a $325,000 salary BY THE BOD it was cut by 23.7% ..... why?

    If Beal was behind these cuts I say "GOOD ON HIM" if not, who is the real power behind the scenes ..... could it be Kanis and if so, could he be a short-term source for more funding to avoid a crushing near-term secondary?

    With regard to the audit fees ...... could the Canadian accounting fraud have something to do with the high relative cost ..... did the auditors spend lots of time in Canada?

    I don't know ..... but I like reading between the lines.

  • rogluther rogluther Mar 31, 2016 8:16 AM Flag

    Recap Of Known 2016 Annual Salary Cuts effective 3/29/16.

    Beal from $325000 to $250,000 = -$76,900 or a 23.7% cut.
    Golden from $300,000 to $225,000 = -$75,000 or a 25% cut.
    Shea from $225,000 to $175,000 = -$50,000 or a 22.2% cut.
    Bippus from $265,000 to $240,000 = -$25,000 or a 9.4% cut.

    Overall from $1,175,000 to $890,000 = -$226,900 or 20.3%.

    Read between the lines of the above numbers and what does that tell you?

    Just as importantly, what does the accounting disaster of Canadian facility tell you?

    Lastly, although Jimmy Blanchette, Gordon Foster, Ian McDonald and Jennifer Pegg are still listed on the CDTI website as executives, what is their current status and will they also be ask to take a pay cut or will they be eliminated. If eliminated will they too receive a "golden parachute?"

  • Reply to

    My Takeaway.............

    by spanspur Mar 30, 2016 11:48 AM
    rogluther rogluther Mar 30, 2016 8:54 PM Flag

    I'm right and you're wrong ...... EXCEPT ..... we're both wrong. I've finished reading the fine print part of the 10K but have NOT yet started on the numbers.

    But one TINY thing that both you and I failed to recognize is that of the $3M cash on hand on 12/31/16 is that $1.1M is overseas and is not coming back !!!

    Therefore $3M - $1.1M = $1.9M divided by $1.2M gap = 1.58 quarters of coverage ..... hence CDTI's statement in the 10K that they will need additional funding in the 2nd quarter.

    That's trouble at these share prices unless they can "pull a rabbit out of a hat."

  • Reply to

    Fine Print

    by rogluther Mar 30, 2016 7:53 PM
    rogluther rogluther Mar 30, 2016 8:30 PM Flag

    The above post failed to include Bell as a director.

  • Reply to

    Fine Print

    by rogluther Mar 30, 2016 7:53 PM
    rogluther rogluther Mar 30, 2016 8:19 PM Flag

    I'm going to quit reading for tonight at page 67..... but another thing I discovered is the list of directors and executive officers which include: Engle, Becker, Cherry, Park and Beal as directors and Bippus, Golden and Shea as executives ..... makes me wonder what happened to Blanchette, Foster, McDonald and Pegg???

  • rogluther by rogluther Mar 30, 2016 7:53 PM Flag

    I'm half way through reading the fine print of the 10K and discovered two significant things.

    #1. Accounting practices at the Canadian facility inaccurately valued inventory, mfg costs, labor costs and overhead ........ in other words a disaster. Only about $.6M of the previously stated $1.8 write-off is included in 4th quarter results.

    #2. On 3/29/19 the salaries of the following executives were reduced:
    Beal to $250,000
    Bippus to $240,000
    Golden to $225,000
    Shea to $175,000
    Obvious by their absence are other "executives" ..... maybe they will be eliminated entirely.

    Now .... back to reading the fine print.

  • rogluther rogluther Mar 30, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    And at least two of those analysts said "I'll talk to you later on other questions."

    To which I respond ..... why not ask the questions during the conference call ..... are you looking for inside information.

  • Reply to

    My Takeaway.............

    by spanspur Mar 30, 2016 11:48 AM
    rogluther rogluther Mar 30, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    Since I appear to be BLOCKED from posting worthwhile information I'll TRY to add this little tidbit.

    It looks like there was a $1.2M gap from net revenues to expenses in the 4th quarter of 2015. So, if this is correct, it gives us an idea of how long the $3M of cash available on 12/31 will last at "4th quarter 2015 performance levels". $3M divided $1.2M 4th quarter gap = 2.5 quarters.

    That tells me there is no rush for a secondary.

  • Reply to

    Posting

    by rogluther Mar 30, 2016 9:40 AM
    rogluther rogluther Mar 30, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    Makes you wonder why we can post this and not an opinion and analysis of the preliminary results????

  • rogluther by rogluther Mar 30, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    I've been trying to post my take of preliminary results for more than an hour ..... anyone else having problems?

  • rogluther rogluther Mar 29, 2016 11:06 PM Flag

    No I don't think that Jim Comey assaulted Hillary Clinton ..... yet.

  • rogluther rogluther Mar 29, 2016 7:25 PM Flag

    I can't believe that all three of you, who almost never agree on anything, appear to be on the same page on this one!

    That tells me you are all a bunch of woman haters ….. my question to you is have you stopped beating your grandmothers yet? Do you still drown unwanted puppies and kitties?

    The only possible punishment for an act like this is to put Trump's campaign manager against a wall and have Michelle Fields throw a cream pie in his face on national television ….. that assumes he is convicted in Florida.

    On a more serious note ….. this is just the beginning. If the Republicans can't steal the nomination from Trump just wait until the general election and I guarantee you that what will come out of the mouths of the media and the Democrats will astound you. The only thing that would top that would be the fact that Clinton will get off scott-free on her violations of national security ….. I'm afraid that the coverage of that will also astound us.

  • rogluther rogluther Mar 29, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    Why do you keep trying to bait me to respond to your rehash of old information ….. is it because you like to hear yourself talk?

    OK ….. I'll bite this time (a little).

    IMO the only reason to keep paying the two departed executives for a year for doing absolutely nothing, is that they know something that CDTI would prefer to keep quiet.

    I have not spoken to Eric since shortly before he took the job. Options for the 100,000 shares will not be issued until after one year, at the rate if 1/3 each year, at full market price, if approved by the BOD.

    Eric reports directly to whoever is the CEO and, in the absence of a CEO, he reports directly to the BOD …... for very good reasons. He is, in effect, the #2 man in the company behind Beal. His salary is the 3rd highest behind Golden and Beal. Will he be at CDTI in another 18 months ….. I have no idea but …. I assume if he thinks real progress is being made he will be. If not, he'll likely go to on greener pastures. As an aside, what I would like to see is Eric running the show, or a spun-off part of the show, which in the next 18 months, he should be well equipped to do.

    There, now I've given you a rehash of my opinions in answer to your rehash of old information.

    Now all we have to wait for is 4th quarter results and the conference call ….. which I suspect will be good or semi-good news …... but I could be wrong.

SCCO
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