TWO YEARS LATER, STILL STRONG
Bargaining a fair contract with Asarco/Grupo Mexico has been a long, slow process.
Over the past two years, the negotiating committee has had to address challenges to successorship
language, proposed increases in healthcare costs, attempts to contract out our work and relentless
attacks on the Copper Price Bonus, among many other issues.
Thanks to the unwavering solidarity of all union members at all locations, we’re still standing, and two
years in, we remain as committed as ever to the collective bargaining process.
BARGAINING OVER LAYOFFS
Asarco/Grupo Mexico gave us a 60 day Warn Act notice at the Hayden Concentrator and announced
layoffs at the Ray Mine, citing the low price of copper. We are currently bargaining with Asarco/Grupo
Mexico about the effects of the layoffs, and we are trying to place as many people as possible in open
Direct quotes from the USW website.
This is a BIG PROBLEM for the future of diesel cars in the U.S. given that one of the leaders in diesel car technology HAD to cheat to improve the cost/benefit analysis of gas versus diesel in cars. Maybe akin to when GM wrecked car diesel future in the U.S. with the introduction of poorly designed car diesel engines decades ago.
"Who else is cheating?" ...... a very good question? What will be done to VW? ...... an even better question? Will the U.S. come down with both feet on VW or will they drag our feet because VW is such a big part of the German economy? Did VW also rig their software to meet European emissions? If so, what will the Europeans do? Is this a "too big to fail question?"
So ...... you bought a VW diesel and now you've got to get it fixed ...... how much fuel economy will you lose? How much will the performance and drive suffer after the fix? Just two more problems in addition to the re-sale question.
You shouldn't get too excited about CDTI technology helping VW out of its CURRENT CRISIS.
VW is on the hook for repairing anywhere from 500,000 to 11,000,000 vehicles by latest count. What's the way to do this? IMO the simple and least expensive answer is to reprogram the computer. VW's choice is get the job done quickly and cheaply for all that are WILLING to get the reprogram and stick the owners with worst performance and fuel economy or find another MUCH MORE expensive and time consuming ALTERNATE ..... if one actually exists.
THINK ...... you've got a 500,000 to 11,000,000 vehicle problem ...... how much plant and equipment has to be developed and in what time frame, to implement an ALTERNATE solution on a timely basis.
Has anyone said that Ford, GM, BMW or anyone else needs to seek out retrofit options? It's a big jump to assume that others were also cheating ..... although not impossible.
That being said, the temporarily bright light now being shined on CDTI can't hurt. I just don't think its the answer to CDTI's long-term prayers or yours.
Money talks and BS walks ....... IF and WHEN CDTI technology can be PROVEN to save manufacturers "worthwhile" amounts of MONEY CDTI's prayers will be answered ...... and then only after capacity is brought on-line. Never forget, capacity costs money and time and investments are not normally made by vehicle manufacturers (or others) unless there is an almost assured "worthwhile" long-term outcome. Manufacturers study this kind of stuff to death and then ..... they don't always get it right ..... I know.
For those that live in areas that DO NOT require ongoing emissions testing the choice of not getting your vehicle repaired IS A CURRENT OPTION.
UNFORTUNATELY, the government COULD come up with an alternate that would FORCE repairs. The easy solution COULD BE that you can't sell or trade-in your vehicle unless you have PROOF that the vehicle has been repaired by a dealer. This would only require that they FLAG your vehicle at the Title Agency in your state. Another option would be to FLAG your vehicle and, after an appropriate time, refuse to issue a new license unless you provide documentation that repairs have been made by a dealer.
For those who DO REQUIRE ongoing emissions testing ..... YOU MAY BE OK ..... but only until your next scheduled emissions test.
Face it ...... t;he government has the "hammer" if they want to use it ...... it all depends on how much they want to anger the VOTERS that own these vehicles.
As an aside ..... think about the Takata air bags ...... what's the government doing to assure timely replacement of a problem that has the potential to KILL YOU? Do I hear crickets?
What are those on the left coast saying about the Takata air bag recall or the GM ignition switch recall?
I bet you're hearing crickets on these issues. If so, does that mean that California values their air quality over the potential LIFE of their taxpayers and voters?
Have they thought about how long it will take to implement repairs for these problems? If you are correct, and California has already said they won't renew registrations for affected VW diesels I'll be willing to bet that they will "modify" their position rather than issue a poorly thought out "knee jerk" statement.
Pump and dump?
Who started the pump? Was it the starry eyed lemmings on this board who jumped on the VW problem or was it the institutions who saw a short-term opportunity and took advantage ..... leaving most of the starry eyed lemmings holding the bag?
Private investors don't trade this stock in the millions of shares ..... me thinks many of the lemmings have been had.
Does that mean that CA doesn't give a flip about bad air bags and ignition switches that have the potential to KILL their citizens.
Bye the way ...... upon further checking ..... CA DID NOT say that they would IMMEDIATELY deny registrations of impacted vehicles. So ...... maybe they're smarter than we initially thought.
I looked at their Oxnard site at 1521 Fiske Place on Google Maps and saw NO "permanently closed" sign!
Are you blind or were you looking at the wrong building?
I typed in 1521 rather than 1621 with my old fingers ...... my bad.
But to put an end to this ..... I called CDTI today and spoke to a nice young lady that assured me that she was real and was located at 1621 Fiske Place in Oxnard CA.
As I have stated before ..... IMHO there is no chance that a CDTI product will lead to a shorter-term fix of VW's problems and ..... IMHO VW will primarily use a re-program of the computers for the vehicles impacted.
Lets see $7,500,000,000 (a number recently quoted VW has set aside to fix the problem) divided by 11,000,000 vehicles currently stated as impacted (VW only does not include Audi) equals $681.82 per vehicle. Maybe they'll also throw some cash or other free-bees at the owners to help maintain goodwill.
Draw your own shorter-term conclusions ...... longer-term CDTI technology could come into play.
"I once owned 80K shares of CDTI and after the VW announcement own none."
Sorry to here you're completely out of CDTI. If you initially bought for the right price I think you made a mistake dumping ALL of your shares EVEN if you sold then at the recent $2.20+ high.
Sure, several established and profitable companies can supply CC's but at what price?
And ..... who has a vice grip on the rare earths required. I'm finally into CDTI in a small way ( less than 1% of my total portfolio) because I think there may be good things on the horizon for CDTI and I always like to keep a couple of speculative stocks in my portfolio just to "keep the juices flowing."
But then ..... I could be wrong ..... It wouldn't be the first time.
As a former Wall Street analyst you also know that when a stock like CDTI trades in the millions of shares like it did a few days ago that volume is driven by institutions and not private investors.
These institutions have one objective and that's to make a quick buck by driving the share price up (or down in some instances) and then selling (or buying) and leaving the poor uninformed private investor and some of their fellow institutions (the stupid ones) holding the bag. You'll never convince me that, with all their resources, these same institutions did not know on DAY ONE that CDTI was NOT the answer to VW's current problems.
Face it ..... the institutions can and do control the share price of almost all stocks ..... we're just along for the ride, so get used to it. We private investors just have to do our own DD and then hope for the best.
"What would be a good entry point."
You've got to do your own DD ..... that being said, I added to my position at $1.50 ..... so, IMHO now is the time.
What is your objective? If it's to "make big bucks" (a relative statement) you should reconsider.
CDTI is IMO, a speculative stock that does not warrant a large position in any portfolio. Sure ..... we could see a rise of lets say $1.50+ in the near to mid-term and that would be a DOUBLE+ from current levels but unless you take a HUGE position and RISK, that double results in a minor gain in term of DOLLARS. Then look at the downside ..... could CDTI see its recent lows again ..... sure. Will it go to zero ..... I think not .... too many good patents.
So, what's the risk reward? IMO its a potential 7% downside and a possible 100%+ upside. Or, no significant share price move for the longer-term, which means you've tied-up your money with almost zero results. What would I do if, in my view, the best possible thing happens and CDTI doubles in the near to mid-term ...... I'd sell to cover my costs retain the balance and then wait.
BUT ..... that's just the way I view things. As I've said before, I always keep a couple of speculative stocks in my portfolio "just to keep the juices flowing" but I NEVER put a meaningful portion of my portfolio at risk by speculating on such stocks.
Depends on how you define institutions ...... I define them as anyone BUT private investors. That is, mutual funds, hedge funds, banks or anyone who is working their book not at the direction of the private investor.
I enjoyed reading your "Perspective" post on the IV board. But there's one thing you missed and that's the qualifier ..... so, may I suggest you add:
"Past results may not be indicative of future performance."
With regard to the other subject we discussed ..... I made my numbers exactly as forecast and trust you're still in that game ...... me thinks good things are coming grasshopper and maybe before I get back from off the grid.
From his posts I got the impression that he was an employee of CDTI in Oxnard. Am I wrong on this?
If so ....... maybe the company started to monitor message boards (as they should) and the kitchen got a little too hot for him?
I've been off the grid for a few weeks and returned to see you've come out of exile!
I don't intend to be overly critical, but you've got to get your facts straight. #1. If my memory serves me well Eric Bippus signed on with CDTI about 7/29/15 ..... that means he's been on the job about 2 1/2 months! #2. What makes you think that Eric did not play a significant part in the PACCAR deal? The world wasn't built in a day ...... give the guy a break, he may be the best thing that's happened to CDTI in quite a while.
Oh ..... and why aren't insiders buying shares? What would you say if THEY DID ........ and shortly thereafter announced a deal? Maybe its not what you think ..... it could be more important what the SEC would think.
Regarding Eric's history ..... look it up and I'm sure you'll be impressed with his job experience (and success) both in the U.S. and in Europe and all those who have good things to say about him.
What makes you say that PACCAR has been a long time distributor of CDTI products ..... do you mean Durafit or some other product I don't know about?
The latest 10Q said that Durafit was just being made available in the 3rd quarter of 2014 for after market distribution. I know of some independent distribution but nothing about PACCAR taking on Durafit for resale at that time ....... can you refer me to something in writing that can confirm your statement that PACCAR has been a "long-time distributor" ..... it would be appreciated.
Are you employed by CDTI? Do you have some insider info that CDTI had shipped some product to PACCAR for RESALE (or some other reason)? Why did you say that Eric has been working on a SKU catalog ..... more insider info?
If you're so well informed, you should know that the "coastal climate" is not the reason that Eric came to CDTI since he works out of Indiana ...... closer to variety of potential customers. Regarding the 120,000 shares ..... I did read his employment contract at the end of the 10Q a while back and IF memory serves me correctly the majority of those shares have restrictions (I'll reread it). So, maybe he saw an opportunity make a difference AND make some $ over time ...... you'd better hope so.
So maybe his first accomplishment was the PACCAR Durafit deal.
The 100,000 shares will be granted 1/3 at the end of each years employment for the next 3 years AT THE THEN EXISTING MARKET PRICE (not at $1.56) per the employment contract detailed in the 10Q.
It's incentive to create business and raise the share price over time, in addition to any annual performance bonuses which may range from 0 to 60+% of base depending on accomplishment of objectives. You should also note that Eric reports to the CEO or the Board in the absence of the CEO so maybe he does carry a large stick at CDTI.