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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

rojospan 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 3, 2014 10:23 PM Member since: Oct 12, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Form DEF 14 A

    by rojospan Mar 30, 2014 2:46 PM
    rojospan rojospan Apr 3, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    9.5 M X $ 74 (200 MA) = $ 702 M dilution ie 6 months of Kalydeco revenues.

    Results will not be coming out until they will secure their shares

    Study VX 809 12 105 will now stop in 03/2016 instead of 05/2017. My take home, this drug combo is marketable and FDA don't need long term safety study because drug will be in the market and patients and their doctors will report side effects.

  • Reply to

    Form DEF 14 A

    by rojospan Mar 30, 2014 2:46 PM
    rojospan rojospan Mar 31, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    Right now total cost of caring for CF patient is US $ 15700 for mild, 25000 for moderate and 45000 for severe CF patients per year. Hospitalization costs 47%, Pulmozyme 18%, clinic visit 12%, out patient and home antibiotics 10%. Heart and lung transplant cost 500,000. Life time CF cost runs around 306 K in 2013 published data. I know Soliris and some other drugs have been sold for 400 K/ yr for PNH but I doubt that VRTX can get 250 K for a CF therapy even if it is working at correcting CFTR function significantly. 60 K a year, may be. Annual growth of 800 pt/ yr. I consider VX 135 failure a big loss to VRTX. No progress with VX 509 a big mistake.

  • rojospan by rojospan Mar 30, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    Annual meeting on May 07, 2014
    Proposed to have 9.5 Million shares more options rewards for insiders. Some of the numbers are very interesting and everyone should read this long report in detail especially who made how much?
    Filing talks about share price increase over the last 3 years but no mention of plunging EPS and how they let it happen? I realize, I am no body but a common share holder of VRTX.
    Sadly and respectfully.

  • Reply to

    Pricing of breakthrough medications

    by qdelfan Mar 22, 2014 11:01 AM
    rojospan rojospan Mar 22, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    " Drugs should never become generic". By doing that you reward innovation and you bring the price of drugs down by distributing the profit over the life time vs 12 years. I feel sorry for the people who feel like they should get everything for free and if they can't get it for free, Government should give them for free. Look around, generic drugs are actually not that cheap. $16 for a generic cough syrup at CVS? hilarious.

  • Reply to

    VX 765 and AIDS. Huge upside

    by rojospan Dec 19, 2013 8:52 PM
    rojospan rojospan Mar 15, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    I have done a little investigation into VRTX Multiple Sclerosis regenerative medicine program in collaboration with Cleveland Clinic. Program has been going on since 2009 and it is an exciting medicine to stimulate cells to produce mylin sheath. Biogen is obviously has its finger into the similar research. Lets hope Traffic and Transport show absolute FEV1 of at least 6%. After that we could go full speed on the highway. Thank you for the AIDS project update.

  • Reply to

    The future?

    by bootpart Mar 5, 2014 1:45 PM
    rojospan rojospan Mar 5, 2014 9:50 PM Flag

    It will be fun if study 102 cohort 4 in heterozygous on high dose VX 809 shows statistically significant improvement in FEV-1. This cohort has roll over study as well. Stuart Arbuckle in one of the conferences has said that FDA has asked them to do this cohort in heterozygous. Biostaticians at FDA must be seeing something. We may not have to wait for a 2 nd corrector. Two previous CEO's have stop selling their shares since 12/2013.

  • Reply to

    Outlook: Vertex vs. Alexion

    by thirdmeinvestor Dec 8, 2013 2:11 PM
    rojospan rojospan Mar 2, 2014 1:01 AM Flag

    Why Cowen analyst think that either Traffic or Transport is going to fail and he is putting 40% chance to it.? Similar trial design so why he think one is going to fail when other one will not?

  • Reply to

    Absolute vs Relative FEV-1

    by rojospan Feb 21, 2014 8:52 PM
    rojospan rojospan Feb 25, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    so if you read inhaled corticosteroid trials for COPD, after 6 months there is no improvement in relative FEV1. With Ivacaftor FEV1 continue to improve after 48 weeks and Lumacaftor suppose to follow the same pathway. I think even in worst case scenerio where Absolute FEV1 percentage point is 3 or 4 at 6 months, but in 1 year it will become 5 or higher i.e trial will be positive at some point in time. I think once data is available and more mature in the follow up studies, investigators will look at the 45-60 ml gain in the lung function from the base line rather then % points. I think going with absolute FEV1 is better going forward as a primary end point.

    If there drug decreases exacerbation of CF x 2 in the first 12 months, it adds FEV1 of 5%, based on previous exacerbation studies.

    Absolute FEV-1= Worst lung function show biggest improvement (measures quantity)
    Relative FEV-1= Fastest improvement in lowest lung function ( measures duration)
    Tobi trial had relative FEV-1.

  • Reply to

    VX 135 400 mg

    by rojospan Feb 2, 2014 9:58 AM
    rojospan rojospan Feb 4, 2014 9:45 PM Flag

    Doing a second phase II with VX 135 400 mg and Daclatasvir 60 mg caries a merit. First toxicity issue can be settled, secondly, clear there is a trend for drug dose response at higher dose and SVR 4 of 91% can become 100%. ( I have never heard from Alios or from VRTX that VX 135 has a narrow therapeutic index). GILD bought PS7977 in 02/2012 for 11 B. At that point GILD market cap was only 42 B. After that they are now sitting at 130 B. Just imagine the value created by PS 7977. Two to three year lead in drug market is nothing. They need to listen to their scientists and not to please their financial analysts. Financial analyst are invested in GILD and they don't want their GILD investments at risk.

  • rojospan by rojospan Feb 2, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    If I understand correctly, VRTX had agreement with BMS to do TWO phase II studies with VX 135 and Daclatasvir. I don't know if it is practical or not but why don't VRTX conduct another cohort of VX 135 dose 400 mg and Daclatasvir 60 mg in 10 patients and monitor them closely and see if hepatotoxicity happens ( answer should be out in 3 months). If no hepatotoxicity, (which could be related to a combination of Ribavirin with VX 135) VX 135 will be good to go. If VRTX pull out of Alios, it will lose not only an opportunity to have some market share of Hep C market in 2-3 years, it is a possibility that Alios will be free to go on its own to make a deal with BMS while VRTX is out.

  • I doubt it was microphone problem.

  • Reply to

    VX 765 and AIDS. Huge upside

    by rojospan Dec 19, 2013 8:52 PM
    rojospan rojospan Jan 23, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    And if 95% of CD4 cell are alive and functional, they will either hunt down HIV virus or will signal foreign body reaction to form a granulomatous reaction to contained and calcify HIV hides out.

  • Canadian Public health authority has reported an Avian flu ( H1 N5) related death today. NOT GOOD.
    Severe H1 N1 totally unexpected cases in United States this year resulting in several deaths in the last 4 weeks. Tamiflu is ineffective once virus incorporates into the DNA. Patient who were immune suppressed and even took flu shots in Sep 2013, have tested positive for Influenza A.
    VX 787 is an urgent need for years to come.

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