From Investor Day Yesterday (Presentation from Basil Alwan):
Core Routers and Nuage sales to double next year...
Highest Margins Biz from ALU to DOUBLE....
6 minutes ago (FRENCH TRANSLATED
Alcatel-Lucent held an investor day which generally reassured analysts present. Oddo Securities, for example, left unchanged its forecast 2014/2016, having enjoyed maintaining a forecast turnover of 7 billion euros on the core business in 2015, and the soothing comments on the decline in investment AT & T, which had dropped the title on Monday. The equipment recalled in this regard that its customer base is diversified and it now includes cable companies and so-called "web 2.0" companies. He also believes that network virtualization is an opportunity rather than a threat. In addition, strong evidence of Vodafone yesterday suggest that the European market will crescendo. Oddo is a buyer and is 3.80 euros.
Bernstein for his part noted the tone incredibly confident management on the 2015 target of turnover. The broker now believes, after the details provided by the officers, that the target of 7 MdsE is fairly ambitious, but considers that the risk to the next exercise should be lowered and that its own forecasts are too pessimistic. In addition, the analyst is not as dark on the optical and wireline segments, because the output of several market has made a technological leader Alcatel. Vectoring solutions, fiber or group G.Fast offer him a good short-term dynamics. It will still confirm the longer term, but concedes that Bernstein did not expect it. In mobile, the situation has stabilized but remains precarious. When intellectual property, the presentation showed that investors were waiting for the conference Nokia on this Friday just about anything , ironically the design office. In the end, Alcatel seems to be in a great position now, according to Bernstein, even if management forecasts for 2015 appear a little ambitious. The recommendation remains to "outperform" with a target of 3.50 euros
Announcement Tomorrow. Also they will announce a Virtual Edge Router (equal Hardware Bestselling 7750)
Even Germany is still and will be Coal addicted....
11 Nov 2014 09:00 GMT+01:00
Federal business minister Sigmar Gabriel declared that getting rid of coal in Germany, at least in the short term, is unrealistic, he wrote in a position paper released on Tuesday.
"One cannot get out of nuclear and coal-powered energy simultaneously. Those who want that ensure soaring electricity costs, supply insecurity and the migration of a large part of German industry," the Social Democratic (SPD) politician warned.
He also said it was dangerous to pit natural and conventional energy sources against one another in the energy revolution.
"We have to end the illusion of the current German energy policy," he said, referring to the German plan to step away from nuclear energy by 2022 and coal power by 2020.
Gabriel's statement is in opposition to his SPD colleague, environmental minister Barbara Hendricks, though he doesn't think so, whose goal is to reduce carbon dioxide production to 1990 levels.
"I am above all confident that the question of which energy plants stay power is a decision that should be made by their operators and not the state," he said.
11/11/14 at 09:10
Good News for ALU`S Core Routing Biz....
Next bullish Report in FT:
November 10, 2014 8:51 am
Peabody sees reprieve from US carbon cuts push
The Republican party’s victory in US Congressional elections last week has raised industry hopes for a rollback of the Obama administration’s plan to slash emissions from coal-fired power plants, according to Peabody Energy, a vehement opponent of the proposal.
The plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power stations is the most ambitious effort to combat climate change in US history. It has been vociferously opposed by the coal and power industries, who say it will cost jobs and raise electricity costs.
“Our view is there will be fundamental changes to it before any final package comes through. Based on now, with the change in Congress, it’s going to be whatever the next administration decides in terms of how this comes through,” Greg Boyce, chief executive officer of Peabody Energy, said in an interview in Beijing on Monday.
Shares in Peabody Energy, the largest US coal producer, have risen 13 per cent since last Tuesday, when the Republicans won a sweeping victory in midterm elections for the Senate that secured the party full control of Congress
Mr Boyce said his company advocates building “supercritical” power plants worldwide that pollute less per unit of power produced than traditional plants. But he said the Environmental Protection Agency’s provisions requiring them also to be fitted with technology for carbon capture and storage technology, which isolates carbon dioxide emissions and stores them deep underground, is impractical and potentially very costly.
But while Republicans have said since the midterms that legisla
Chief Executive of Peabody Energy Says Robust Growth in India and China Could Contribute to Coal-Market Rebound
Nov. 10, 2014 3:44 a.m. ET
BEIJING—Robust economic growth in India and China as well as stable recovery in the U.S. could contribute to a coal-market rebound in 2015, said Greg Boyce, chief executive of Peabody Energy Corp., the largest U.S. coal producer by output.
Mr. Boyce, in an interview on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Beijing, said a U.S.-led boom in shale-gas production didn’t pose a challenge to coal’s position as the world’s dominant source of energy by far, and said Chinese coal demand would continue to rise despite pledges by Beijing to reduce reliance on coal usage to cut pollution.
As low coal prices have delayed development of new supplies, incremental demand growth would offset some oversupply concerns over time, he said.
“The curve on coal will bend, but it will continue to grow,” he said. “We’re rocking along and working off of what was built five years ago, but demand through this entire period of time has continued to increase…Once demand outstrips that available supply we’re going to see the coal markets begin to recover very rapidly, prices begin to rise very rapidly.”
ANR OWNS 6.4M Shares of RICE. Think about ....
11/07/14 08:56 AM EST
Incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) says a top priority of his is “to try to do whatever I can to get the [Environmental Protection Agency] reined in.”
In an interview with the Lexington Herald-Leader, McConnell said it won’t be easy to block the carbon pollution regulations for existing power plants, but its a promise he made to Kentucky on the campaign trail this year.
"It will be hard because the only good tool to do that ... is through the spending process, and if [President Obama] feels strongly enough about it, he can veto the bill," McConnell told the Herald Leader.
"But I view it as a complete outrage that he could not get cap and trade through the Congress when he owned the place — owned the place — and decided to do it anyway," he said.
McConnell said he won a number of coal-producing counties during Tuesday’s election for the first time, and feels a “deep responsibility” to stop the EPA from implementing its proposed carbon pollution standards, which are a key pillar of Obama’s climate legacy.
To McConnell, coal has a very clear future, and he said he is frustrated that other countries like Europe, China, India, and Australia are keeping coal around, but not the U.S.
"It makes me very angry, and I'm going to do everything I can to try to stop them,” he said.
When McConnell takes the reins as majority leader next year he will be able to set the agenda, and blocking the administration’s landmark climate rules will be high on his list.
My Average is 3.21, own 11000 Shares. Was looking for this Election Scenario, but bought too early.. 5$ would be nice, but with some Patience i think ANR could be easily go to 8-10$...
November 06, 2014
The cornerstone of President Obama’s effort to address climate change is the first-ever federal rule limiting the amount of carbon dioxide that can be released by power plants, the source of a third of all U.S. emissions. The 645-page draft regulation, unveiled in June by the Environmental Protection Agency, would require utilities to cut emissions 30 percent by 2030, chiefly by forcing them to upgrade their older, dirtier-burning plants or by making them switch from coal to natural gas by 2020.
It now seems unlikely that initial target will make it into the final rule, due to be released next June. Already, the EPA has said it’s considering an extended time frame for reducing reliance on coal to 2029, giving utilities almost an extra decade to adapt. “The key to making our Clean Power Plan ambitious and achievable is flexibility,” EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said in October.
The EPA’s shift came after intense lobbying by utilities, which have largely taken the position that they can live with cutting coal use, as long as they can wait until their plants reach the end of their natural life spans. American Electric Power, a Columbus (Ohio)-based utility that’s one of the nation’s top coal users, says the EPA has overestimated the emissions reductions that can be achieved by making older coal plants more efficient. Joe Power, vice president for federal legislative and regulatory affairs at St. Louis-based Ameren, says, “We need a glide path to that target.” His company, which wants the EPA to extend the deadline for cuts to 2035, has hired former Democratic House leader #$%$ Gephardt and former Republican Senator Kit Bond, both of Missouri, as well as the lobbying firm Bracewell & Giuliani, where former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is a partner.
November 05, 2014
Medical device makers and coal stocks rose along with the company backing the Keystone XL pipeline on optimism a Republican-controlled Congress will back legislation easing taxes and regulation on the industries.
TransCanada Corp. (TRP:US) advanced 1.5 percent as of 9:40 a.m. in New York as Democratic losses enhanced prospects for a vote on its pipeline. Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU:US) gained 1.4 percent and Alpha Natural Resources Inc. added 4.8 percent on expectations that Republicans led by Mitch McConnell will oppose restrictions on coal. Device-maker Boston Scientific (BSX:US) Corp. gained 1.1 percent.
Republicans roared back in the midterm elections, capturing the Senate from Democrats, holding on in crucial governor races and keeping control of the House. Device makers may benefit because Republicans will seek to repeal an excise tax on pacemakers and defibrillators, said Dan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners in Washington.
Senator Mitch McConnell, who won re-election and is poised to become majority leader in January, has said with other Republicans they would seek to roll back environmental regulations they consider burdensome. McConnell said he wants to attach provisions to spending bills that would curtail regulations affecting coal-fired power plants.
Its a Report of MKM Partners. Old News from last Thursday.
By MKM Partners ($3.25, Oct. 31, 2014)
We are adjusting our 2014 and 2015 estimates on Alcatel-Lucent lower and reducing our fair-value estimate to $3.25 from $4.00 based on 0.5 times enterprise value (EV) to our 2015 sales estimate.
We are maintaining a Neutral rating on Alcatel-Lucent (ticker: ALU). Revenue for the third quarter came in lighter than expected, but margins were strong due to continued fixed-cost savings under the Shift Plan. Even with incremental improvements in operating performance, the fundamental story for the stock remains uninspiring.
A global diversified Telecom equipment vendor like Alcatel-Lucent is largely tethered to the trend in overall capital-expenditure growth which is flattish. We believe the easy cost cuts have already been made and revenue upside from here will be difficult to achieve given competition in Core Networking and lumpy demand for Access products.
Total third-quarter sales of 3.25 billion euros dipped 1% quarter-over-quarter, fell 11% year-over-year and were below our estimate of 3.44 billion euros. Core Networking revenue of 1.44 billion euros were about 20 million euros above our estimate and Access revenue of 1.81 billion euros missed by about 170 million euros. Gross margins surpassed our 33% estimate and expanded 240 basis points sequentially to 34%. Operating income grew 34 million euros quarter-over-quarter to 170 million euros and was 27 million euros above our estimate. Light revenue more than offset by strong margins drove earnings per share up sequentially to breakeven, but still fell short of our estimate of 2 euro cents. Management's outlook for the fourth quarter calls for normal seasonal revenue growth in the 10%-15% range......
Alcatel Lucent: UBS remains buyer.
BS maintains his advice to 'buy' the title Alcatel Lucent with a price target lowered slightly to 3.70 euros (against 3.80 previously). The broker believes that we must now focus on the potential for cost reduction rather than the tendency of a division within the group. He thinks the second half of a hollow mark for North America region, but with robust prospects elsewhere, Alcatel Lucent is a self-help story, at an extremely attractive price. The broker believes that if management forecasts are realized, a revaluation of 0.5 to 1 per share would be possible. On the development of the title, he said that the group is treated on the basis of ratio 'enterprise value to Ebitda' 4.9 8 against average for his peers is a discount of almost 40%.
Great News. Despite Revenue Shortfall from TOP3 Customers, ALU has Higher Margins, higher Operating Profit etc. Now think about, what will happen to ALU when the TOP3 Customers return to normal CAPEX again....
Alcatel-Lucent : Morgan Stanley impressed by the gross margin
Alcatel-Lucent continued its spectacular rise Friday, rising 3.9% to 2.47 euros to 16 hours, following a surge of 16%. The strong quarterly results released yesterday by the telecoms equipment continue to generate positive feedback within the financial community.
Thus, while Societe Generale raised its recommendation on Alcatel-Lucent from "Hold" to "Buy," Morgan Stanley on Friday reiterated his opinion "Overweight" and its price target to 3.20 euros on value.
The US broker considers increase in gross margin "impressive" given the slowdown in investment spending in the networking and telecommunications equipment in the United States. As a result, Morgan Stanley "remain [s] confident in the delivery of the Plan Shift, even if end markets remain turbulent."
Gross margin 'of Alcatel-Lucent reached 34% of revenues in the third quarter 2014, an increase of 210 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2013. This improvement is mainly due to the improved profitability of many activities and a favorable mix