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Royal Dutch Shell plc Message Board

ronaldhibdon 11 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Oct 3, 2008
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  • Reply to


    by joedrg2 Oct 5, 2015 9:53 AM
    ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon 21 hours ago Flag

    Joe. bought in 100% at 46. Will sell today. May still be some upside, like Ray mentioned, I still believe we will see another test of 45-46 in the near future. Until demand starts meeting or exceeding supply we will continue to see these up and down pops.

  • Reply to


    by ronaldhibdon Sep 2, 2015 1:44 PM
    ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon Sep 4, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Sorry Slobber Face. It is only my opinion from my analysis. I have been on this board for over 12 years and I believe I have been pretty consistent in calling the right moves. No one can predict the market or a specific stock with certainty but through careful analysis you can reach a high probability. For example, I was telling everyone to go into more cash about a year ago because I predicted this drop. I got out and have been buying dips and selling pops on the way down. I have consistently said that a great opportunity was coming to make great profits. Well here it is. I will be buying some today {like I said I would, at 48-49). This will be a hold for the next 6 months or so. I use technical analysis mostly and research geopolitical events every day. I also take into account Ray's Fibonnaci analysis. These three analysis techniques has done very well for me over the years. If you don't like what I have to say then block me out. Simple as that.

    I would like to hear from others on this board if they feel the same. If so, I will move on. No hard feelings..

  • ronaldhibdon by ronaldhibdon Sep 2, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Have patience here. I hope those who are swing traders, like me didn't get whipsawed on the oil rise fluke that took RD up a few points. Those who are in or all in, have patience and don't panic. In a years time you will be back where you were. For those, like me that are 100% in cash, there is a great opportunity coming and its close! In my past posts I have been saying that my target price was at first 48-49. Then I changed it to 45-46. I have raised my target back to 48-49..I will start buying here. Oil broke the $44 dollar barrier. that will take oil down to 38-40. I will start buying at that time. You cant time the market perfectly but you can get close. I will then hold... probably to 54. My opinion is this:
    1. China is not in as bad shape as you think. Big correction for them but needed.
    2. Feds rate raise. Jury is still out. If they do not raise, RD will pop a few dollars but will still be driven by oil gut and demand issues. If they raise, RD will drop a few dollars, but bounce back after a week or so.
    3. Oil price is really having an adverse effect on OPEC AND the North America and European oil producers. They are trying to keep market share but I think there could be an announcement any day that will change direction.
    4. Demand will pick up in 2016 by approx. 1.40 million /Bbl . I see oil around $65 bbl by end of 2016.

    These predictions are my opinion only.
    Good luck all!

  • Reply to

    Scary Market. August 2015

    by rmarfl Aug 23, 2015 1:25 PM
    ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon Aug 25, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    I also swing trade and listen careful to your Fibonacci analysis Ray. Right now I'm totally in cash. Believe oil will reach 32 and RD down to 45. I was at 48-49 to enter, but now have changed to 45-46. Oil will continue down unless there is some geopolitical event to change direction. Lets see what happens to the inventory report tomorrow. Oil producers will reach a point of diminishing returns soon and someone will have to break. It will probably be our production. However, the wild card is Iran whose production (400,000 Bbl) will come on line in spring and weaken the market again. Get in at the right time and hold for a year or so and make bank!! This is that once in a lifetime opportunity I have been talking about for about a year. good luck!

  • ronaldhibdon by ronaldhibdon Aug 21, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    The market is definitely in correction mode. Moved all stocks to cash in July. Market down 8% and possibly will go down another 10%. That said, I believe a great buying opportunity is on the horizon. Feds will probably not raise rates until world economy is in better shape. China will have decent growth in 2016 despite what is going on now. The oil price is a tight rubber band right now itching to snap back. Countries whose economic life is based on oil revenue is in bankruptcy mode right now and pounding on OPEC's door to do something. Which they could do anytime. In addition, the majors will start to seriously cut back production and reduce capital spending. So, what to do. I believe the market will capitulate and take RD to 48-49. I will start nibbling then on RD. I will put100% in to my other Oil stock holdings at that time. RD being my largest. I believe that that by this time next year the oil price will be back up around 60 with RD at 60-61. IMHO only.

  • Reply to

    What truly bothers me the past few weeks

    by rmarfl Jul 26, 2015 5:43 AM
    ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon Aug 3, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Agree 100%

  • Reply to

    What truly bothers me the past few weeks

    by rmarfl Jul 26, 2015 5:43 AM
    ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon Jul 29, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    Ray, this is kind of what I have been saying. There is no relief in site for the oil energy industry. We have had slight pop the last 2 days. I will be selling my remaining 20% today and be totally in cash. I will not look to get back in until after the feds raise rate. I don't see the oil price getting much better till then (probably worse). The market will dump temporarily after the rates are raised. I will begin looking again at that time!

  • ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon Jul 24, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Agree. I have been saying that I will revisit around 50-51. It may possibly go to 48. There is no relief for energy at this time. These are the issues that really concern me:
    1. Iran oil will be coming on line. Not immediately but coming.
    2. Oil Co hedging on oil price will be ending soon.
    3. Feds will probably raise rates in September
    4. OPEC, US, Russia pumping oil fast and furious
    5. Oil demand is stagnant

    I do believe that when the oil comes back, and I believe it will, it will come back strong then settle around $65-70/Bbl. However I just don just yet. Once I do get back in, it will be for a long hold. Good luck my friends!

  • ronaldhibdon by ronaldhibdon Jul 22, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    I don't see any relief in sight at this point. I am in for 20%. I'm looking to get back in for a long hold around 50-51. The energy industry is just too weak at this point. Oil glut will continue for a while. Iranian oil will start to come on line. Oil Co. oil price hedging at $90/Bbl will begin to end here soon. Dollar will probably get stronger. Feds will probably increase rates in Sept. Not looking good for the market as a whole and certainly not looking good for energy.

  • Reply to

    Friends we

    by greenbacks98 Jul 16, 2015 11:59 AM
    ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon Jul 17, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Where is the IGNORE button on this site?

  • Reply to

    RD's new low and more to come.

    by rmarfl Jun 30, 2015 12:44 PM
    ronaldhibdon ronaldhibdon Jul 8, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Ha ha! Ray, don't feel bad. I agreed with you all the way! still do! I also got a thumbs down when I said RD is looking to go to 51. I still believe we have more downside to go. I won't even think about entering until we hit 51-52. I am in 25% and will release that if we pop up a little. I believe the 51 will come by the end of the year. Along time ago I said there was going to be a BIG opportunity to make BIG profits. we are getting close to that! Ray, keep up the great analysis buddy!

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