Quite a good article and a reasonable one at that. I really didn't expect any new insights into ischemic stroke studies, but I was dead wrong. The article lays out in fair fashion where Athersys stands thus far and certainly provides cause for optimism. If MultiStem really works, meaning even a small amount of healing beyond normal expectations, the company stands to have a treatment monopoly. And even the small precentage of patients who squeeze into the small window for TPA would still be candidates for multistem infusion. Everyone here should read the article, including all skeptics.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So is LINE slipping lower because of concerns that the merger won't go through or that it will go through? Or is due to the latest SA article, which angles to the negative but ultimately alters its list by being pro-merger, even at 1.68X?
Meanwhile, for those who believe that the odds strongly favor a Yes by all three companies, the Jan. calls with a 28 strike would really move with a post-merger point or three from LINE.
I'm glad the SA articles are posted. I'm not obliged to read them. Nor do I have to accept what's being said. Certainly SA articles are considerably more illuminating than the usual post on a Yahoo discussion board. The articles are typically supported with reasons and data behind an author's' opinions. And if you don't want to be e-mailed about any stock's articles, go to SA and/or your browser and unsubscribe.
Copitz, I don't think that name-calling is necessary just because you disagree with someone. None of us is the sun, so other folks aren't planets that should revolve around us.
I'm going for early spring in an attempt to be conservative in my anticipations. Could initial data come out, say, in late February? Sure. But Pfizer has been awfully slow thus far, and I'd be surprised if they shifted gears now.
I think that the so-called "pumpers" are just overly optimistic posters who have a tough time being objective about a stock when they hold a lot of shares.( And I'm not emotionally immune to this eirther.) Further, I think the folks who follow supposed patterns from charts are misguided and too often develop a false confidence about the future. It costs them money, just as those who proclaim things like "Buy now!" and "If it hits $2.22 buy it!" costs their fans money. But market forces are usually very complex, and the interactions among greed, fear, hope, optimism, need, and perceptions of others' perceptions are inexplicable.
Re ATHX: So far what's caused price pops are presentations and quarterly CCs as well as SA articles and the occasional brokerage recommendation. Then the stock deflates, which hasn't been hard to predict. It's been a pattern that's far less ambiguous than a chart.
But this doesn't mean we can accurately gauge where buyers should get in for a quick trade.(And my guess is that hardly anyone here even cares about this.) However, for longer-term players, 1.94 is only marginally worse than, say, 1.84 or 1.78, both of which are clearly possible this month. But so what? The difference is only pennies now versus the potential for dollars later. (Note that the operative word is "potential.") The real play with ATHX is the patient one. And the real igniter for a move up that establishes an impressive new base will be a positive UC report coming this spring (absent yet another postponement). That'll clothe MultiStem with credibility IF it works as the pre-P2 science suggests it should.
Just to be perfectly clear, I'm hoping that Biovest's [provocative post is right despite my short-term doubts and willingness to make a side-bet if it's off a bit. I certainly wouldn't touch a share of my core position of about 75K in shares, which I began to accumulate in the 1.30s. There's undeniably exciting potential in this biotech, which makes it a standout in the R&D category. The risk/reward ratio is stunning. But I am aware that the ratio includes the word "risk" and that ATHX is volatile enough for occasional side-bet trading.
Sorry, Mktqqq, but I don't think you're being very perceptive. There's a wide gap between potential good news and actual good news. Dec. 16 is just around the corner
A stock that doubles in the short term is certainly amazing, and it's distinctly possible with ATHX should significant positive data emerge from the initial P2 report around March or April. But I think that, absent some surprising news, you may be overly optimistic to suppose a double will occur in anticipation of the data, which, when it is announced, still won't be the final word on the P2 trial. That's in Q3 or even Q4. However, if the final P2 results are especially strong, anticipation of P3 success will then kick in and move the stock further north. And if there are positive reports from the stroke P2 study, well, it's tough to pick a price on a story stock when the story presents positive signs of a happy ending. Ischemic stroke, after all, looms much larger as a disease begging for treatment than does UC, which is no picnic but far less common than stroke.
But where's ATHX going in the very short term? As someone who likes side-bet trading outside of a long-term core position, I'm wondering when to get back in again for another upside $.20 or so. So I'm thinking there's more profit-taking left in the coming week or three and no supportive sure-thing catalyst (as I viewed the conference presentation) in the works. The upshot is that I'd likely buy for a ST trade at 1.85 to 1.90 should the price go there. Otherwise I'd be happier to see some firm consolidation above 2. But if I HAD to make an objective bet on the more probable of the two, I'd put a few chips on the downside, considering how high Athersys shares have risen in so short a time. (Red thumbs for even hinting that such a thing is possible, open-mindedness not quite a characteristic of Yahoo stock boards.)
Charger, shame on you for even posting. Only unbridled optimism is allowed here. (Just my pointing this out should be worth about 5 or 6 red thumbs.)
Anyway, considering the large premium on calls and that ATHX common is trading at virtually the low price of an option (anything under 5 bucks the way I define it) but without an expiration date, I think the common is a better bet.
I'll peer into my crystal ball and venture a wild guess at what's going to happen: As we move into March (or sooner) ATHX rises in anticipation of data on the UC trial. The calls go up but not in proportion to the common. The option premium narrows as time decay sets in. You buy back the stock at a higher price than you sold and sell the calls at a small profit. But because you have to pay taxes on your recent LT cap gains, you can't buy as many shares with the remaining ATHX money as if you'd held. Plus, you're starting from scratch on LT gains again.
The above guess is worth every cent you paid for it.
And now something for the optimism-only members: We're going to $400 a share by 2016! (127 green thumbs.)
Linn will certainly not be ready for a financially responsible distribution increase until . . . I don't know. Maybe not even until 2015. I'm in LINE for income, but, given my druthers, I'm hoping they hold off until they can have about 1.15x coverage post-dist. increase.
Re a pop on a merger, I think that practically everyone here expects one, including me. However, so much agreement (if my take is accurate) gives me pause. Maybe we'll just get a poplet. On the day before the meeting, though, it wouldn't surprise me to see the units push close to or a bit beyond 32 in anticipation. In any case, should the deal not go through, that could mean a few downside points in the short term..
Thank you for the source, Wahnton. I did not have a chance to listen to the presentation but certainly will today.
Biojax, we don't know that Athersys was approached by "someone who has done some serious homework to be sure." All we know is that an anonymous poster (and certainly one of the better ones on this board) said that an investor approached the company. Maybe it's so. Maybe it's an assumption based on information not posted. Maybe it's a rumor from some other party trusted by WST. Maybe this is a Yahoo stock-discussion board where, if I'm so inclined, I can post that a tiny penny stock is going to $400 per share in a few years because . . . well, because I want it to. And maybe what I've recently said about trading the stock is simply hokum . . . or not.
And maybe this is the internet, not exactly an infallibly trustworthy beacon of truth and enlightenment. If the internet had a theme song, my title choice would be "It Ain't Necessarily So" from George Gershwin's "Porgy and Bess."
Sentiment: Strong Buy