ATHX is a highly volatile, speculative stock, and whether in June it sells for 1.45 or 2.15, all news prior to the preliminary indications from the UC trial will be trumped by whether those indications are positive or negative (and to what degree, of course). Same goes for the stock price. So unless a player is doing some pretty nimble short-term trading, it doesn't much matter what the price is now as those preliminary indications will either make the PPS bound smartly higher or skitter depressingly lower . . . and do so in a hurry.
R60rider, excellent post. But why does Yahoo need to do something about Ignore? I've had the ever-choleric, politically obsessive, mangler of the English language Norrishappy on Ignore for about 1 1/2 years; the usually hostile Sand for about a year; and Norris's enabler-in-chief Opinions for several months. While I grant it'd be better if Yahoo just blanked them out altogether from my LINE board (as with the previous iteration of the discussion boards), my not bringing up their posts isn't hard to do. And anyone who bridles at my feeble contributions should do the same to me . . . unless they're a tad masochistic.
Unfortunately, the momentum is down (temporarily I hope) no matter what the mumbo-jumbo of charts seem to say. The various chartings are, I believe, not much more than a combination of history and hope. Then again, my holdings of more than 50K of ATHX are based to a significant degree on hope. So my prediction is that several months down the road I'll either be really happy or really sad.
And on the nature of stock discussion boards in general, their purpose is far less to communicate accurate information than for participants to try to convince each other that they haven't made a mistake.
Per the Nasdaq website, current institutional holdings are now 21.25% after significant decreases in holdings. Probably because of profit-taking a number of institutions completely sold out.. (I've got the link, but Yahoo won't allow it.) Nasdaq has far more credibility re stock data than does Yahoo or any brokerage. Anyway, I personally don't care for large institutional holdings in a speculative microcap. Large holders place enormous pressure on the PPS when they sell, which they're quick to do at the faintest whiff of a problem, real or not. Their behavior isn't any different from individuals except for their impact.
A silly post, Bob. They're already conducting two clinical trials an discussing other partnerships, which are always going to be confidential.
A good question, Nivek. The next big step is voting on the matter by shareholders of both entities.. Seems to me that the voting papers will have to be sent out pretty soon to allow adequate time for the process to complete.. My guess is that the final announcement will be made some time in July, that the merger will be approved, and that LINE will pop some on the news. But if you want something more specific, just phone IR at the company and you can share what you're told here. (I'm not yet curious enough to phone.)
Huron, you wrote, "The bonds have a C rating which I think is in the junk category." Wow! That's not merely junk; that's horrible! I do believe that Linn's bond rating is B+. Not that that's good, but it's several levels higher than VNR's debt and the reason I sold my VNR holdings to buy more Linn. (Also, if memory serves - and it may not - I think that VNR is paying more than 7.875% with a rating in the C area. It should be closer to 10%.)
I grasp your irony and do agree that a new partnership would pop the stock, but could well stress the company into a need for yet more shareholder dilution. Too much of a good thing isn't necessarily a good thing in the long run. And I think that Athersys knows that. So I wouldn't expect a serious contract-signing with a new partner (although Gill will continue to gin up interest) until there is some strong preliminary indication of positive results with the Phase II UC trial. That's 3 to 5 months away I'd guess, and much rides on it.
Another partnership (which has been boringly predicted now for months and months) isn't necessarily good for a capital-strapped microcap like Athersys. A partner requires Athersys to bear the brunt of costs until it meets milestones that demonstrate degrees of efficacy. That takes time and lots of money, mostly from Athersys, a company whose plate looks pretty full right now. Be careful what you wish for. A partner will only gamble a comparatively small sum of the clinical trial costs.
A savvy guy like you can't be wrong, especially with your impressive foundation of reasons forecasting today's drop of $1.76. Keep up the thoughtful work.
What's key, I think, is that Athersys has $4.2M less in cash than at the end of Q4, 2012, which is in line with the usual quarterly expenditures. But what annoys me is the large non-cash charge because so many idiots failed to vote against the totally unnecessary warrant giveaway, as if a few million dollars didn't mean anything. Sheesh!
The Phase II trial for UC won't be completed until spring of 2014. Preliminary indications should be announced around September, or perhaps a tad earlier. The "$120M deal" with Pfizer is predicated on Athersys meeting impt. milestones, the most significant of which is FDA approval after a successful Phase III trial.
Maybe it has something to do with a combination of liquidity, dismay with K-1s, gross exaggeration of the perils of holding LINE in an IRA (despite huge UBTI loss carryforwards), institutional avoidance of MLPs, and an ignoring of the corporate taxes that are accrueing with LNCO. Also, there's the high ROC with LinnCo. For investors with big tax-loss carryforwards from the recent bad years, that's a distinct advantage as the effect is to get all the dividends tax free even when you sell.
Think LINE will hit 40 or more by mid-January, 2015? Then make some money with the Jan. 2015 calls at a strike of 35. You can pick them up now for somewhere between the bid and ask, which would be about 3.30. A LINE price of 40 with a small option premium would get you about 5.50 or more per contract if it's, say, at least a couple of months prior to expiration. Of course, the price'll be higher if LINE breaches 40 sometime in the next 20 months.